消费反弹，商社继续看哪些？20251110 免税行业目前的情况如何？有哪些值得关注的因素？ 中免股价创下近两年新高，作为可选消费情绪风向标，其对市场变化非常敏感。 三季报显示，无论是降幅还是公司 9 月份的数据转正，都表明四季度在低基数 下数据转正确定性较高。此外，近期出台的一些利好政策，如国产品退税逐步 进入免税渠道以及岛内居民集购政策，都为行业带来了增量预期。海关数据显 示 11 月初至 7 日同比增长 20%-30%，这也与近期政策变化有关。从估值角 度看，中免 2026 年的万德一致预期估值为 48 亿左右，虽然偏高，但底部已 确认，加上潜在利好政策催化，仍有上涨空间。 酒店板块目前表现如何？未来有哪些预期？ 酒店板块一直是我们重点推荐的对象，包括锦江和首旅。从供给端来看，自 2023 年以来供给扩张速度有所放缓，而需求端旅游占比增加，使得需求保持 良好状态。预计 2026 年某个时间节点可能出现同比转正现象。今年上半年锦 江和首旅降幅分别为四五个百分点，到三季度降至两个多点，并且十一期间数 据持平或略有转正。从个股层面看，华住每年能维持 15%-20%的净开店增速， 并且综合股息率超过 5%。锦江今 ...

Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points, more than the new orders index which dropped by 0.9 percentage points, highlighting greater supply-side constraints[15] - High inventory levels and a reduction in working days (only 18 days in October, down 3 days year-on-year) are contributing to production constraints[3] Profitability and Cost Pressures - In September, industrial profits rose by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9%[4] - The overall cost rate for industrial enterprises was 85.4%, with a marginal decline in profit contribution from costs, indicating ongoing cost pressures[4][29] Policy Measures and Economic Support - The government has initiated new policy financial tools amounting to nearly 300 billion yuan to support debt resolution and investment, with a focus on digital economy and infrastructure[5] - A total of 5 trillion yuan has been allocated to local governments to support debt resolution and project construction, which may alleviate investment pressures[5][34] Consumer Behavior and Retail Trends - Anticipated "Double Eleven" promotions are expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October retail sales[5] - Service consumption showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% during the holiday period, outperforming goods consumption which grew by 3.6%[5] Export Performance - October exports are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year, supported by a surge in foreign trade cargo volume, which increased by 18% in the last week of October[6][45] - The U.S. threat of imposing 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods has led to a "rush to export," further bolstering export figures[6] Inflation Indicators - The CPI is expected to recover to above 0% in October, driven by low base effects and resilient service consumption[7][61] - The PPI is projected to rise to around -2.1%, influenced by rising prices in upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite ongoing overcapacity in downstream sectors[7][57] Economic Growth Outlook - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks[8][72] - The nominal GDP growth is projected at 3.3%, reflecting the overall economic performance amidst various pressures[8][73]