12月21日，在"2026数字金融展望暨星图金融研究院十周年论坛"上，星图金融研究院发布《中国居民消费趋势报告（2025）》，系统分析了2025年1-11月 我国消费市场的运行特征、驱动因素与未来展望。报告指出，当前消费市场整体呈现"温和回暖、结构分化"的态势。 2025年1-11月，社会消费品零售总额达45.6万亿元，同比增长4%，内需修复动能逐步释放。消费增长呈现结构性亮点：可选消费类如通讯器材、金银珠 宝、家电家具等增长显著；服务消费持续提升，前三季度人均服务性消费占比达46.8%；线上零售保持稳定，占比约25.9%。同时，政策积极发力，以旧 换新范围扩大至数码产品，并配合消费贷贴息、育儿补贴等措施，有效激发消费潜力。 然而，消费复苏仍面临多重制约：房价持续低迷抑制消费意愿，预防性储蓄高企，就业预期走弱影响居民信心，CPI与核心CPI分化显示内需动力仍待加 强。 报告总结2025年消费市场呈现六大新趋势：一是消费信心趋稳但内部分化；二是理性消费与品质升级并存，"质价比"成为核心逻辑；三是情绪消费崛起， Z世代成为重要推动力；四是下沉市场增长势头强劲；五是文体消费蓬勃发展，带动周边经济；六是国产品牌出海加 ...

Core Insights - The recent surge in mergers and acquisitions in the consumer sector contrasts with the sluggish growth of the consumption market, raising questions about the underlying investment logic of top-tier capital [1][4]. Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 36.59 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 4.5% year-on-year, which is still below the 8% growth rate seen in 2019 [1]. - The performance of listed consumer companies shows significant divergence, with major players like Kweichow Moutai and Yum China experiencing slowed growth compared to previous years [2]. - Smaller food and beverage companies are facing considerable operational pressure, with many reporting declines in both revenue and net profit [2]. Group 2: Investment Logic Behind Mergers - The first logic is that target companies possess strong cash flow and a solid foundation, making them attractive despite slower growth rates [4]. - The second logic highlights the brand influence of the target companies, which have established networks and consumer loyalty, making them appealing for capital investment [5]. - The third logic suggests that the current market downturn presents a "buying opportunity" for capital, allowing for acquisitions at reasonable prices [5]. - The fourth logic emphasizes the ongoing opportunities in the consumer sector, as the majority of production activities ultimately cater to consumer needs [5]. Group 3: Future Trends in the Consumer Market - Companies face challenges in understanding new consumer demographics, adapting to new marketing methods, and embracing innovative organizational structures [6]. - Three key trends to watch include a focus on cost-effective innovation, the rise of niche products that provide immediate satisfaction, and growth in self-improvement sectors such as health investments and knowledge-based services [6]. - The exit strategies for capital in the consumer market are evolving, with a shift towards long-term investment approaches rather than relying solely on rapid growth and IPOs [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the consumer sector, highlighting the contrast between significant capital investments by top firms and the sluggish growth of the consumer market in China. It explores the underlying investment logic driving this trend. Group 1: M&A Activity - Recent strategic partnerships and acquisitions include CPE Yuanfeng's collaboration with Burger King, Dazhang Capital's potential bid for Costa Coffee, and Boyu Capital acquiring a 60% stake in Starbucks China. KKR also completed the acquisition of the national soda brand, Diao Soda [1][2]. - The consumer market is experiencing a slowdown, with retail sales growth at 4.5% year-on-year for the first three quarters, which is below the 8% growth seen in 2019 [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance of Companies - Major companies like KFC China reported a 4% increase in revenue to $3.2 billion, while Yili's revenue grew by 1.71% to 90.564 billion yuan, but its net profit fell by 4.07% [3]. - Smaller food and beverage companies are facing significant operational pressures, with many reporting declines in both revenue and net profit [3]. Group 3: Investment Logic - Four key investment rationales are identified: 1. Target companies have strong cash flows and solid foundations, with examples like Starbucks maintaining over $6 billion in cash flow [5]. 2. The brands involved possess significant brand equity and established networks, making them attractive to investors [6]. 3. The current market downturn presents a "buying opportunity" for capital, allowing for acquisitions at lower prices [6]. 4. The consumer sector remains promising, with potential for growth despite current challenges [6]. Group 4: Future Trends in Consumer Market - The article identifies three trends in the consumer market: 1. Emphasis on cost-performance innovation as consumers prioritize practical value [8]. 2. Increased interest in niche products that provide immediate satisfaction [8]. 3. Growth in self-improvement sectors, including health investments and knowledge-based spending [8]. Group 5: Exit Strategies for Capital - The challenges of exiting investments in the consumer sector are noted, with a shift towards long-term strategies rather than quick exits through IPOs. This includes designing preferential dividend clauses to ensure returns even without an IPO [9].