Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell's slightly dovish stance on interest - rate cuts and the uncertainty of US trade agreements have affected the global risk appetite; domestically, the increase in the manufacturing PMI in June and consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. Different asset classes have different short - term trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. - The domestic stock market is rising, driven by factors such as the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. - Gold prices are supported by factors such as the US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term [4]. - Due to the weakening of the US dollar, non - ferrous metals are showing a strong - oscillating trend. Different non - ferrous metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [5]. - The oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. Different energy - chemical products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand and cost factors [9]. - International crude oil premium and US biodiesel policy利好 are exhausted, and domestic oils and fats are under short - term pressure. Different agricultural products have different price trends based on their own supply - demand situations [14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Powell's statement is slightly dovish, but the labor market demand is better than expected. The US trade agreement is uncertain, and the global risk preference has cooled down. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in June is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Consumption - stimulating policies have improved the domestic market sentiment. - Asset Suggestions: Stocks are expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious buying; bonds are at a high level and should be observed carefully; commodities in different sectors have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continues to rise, supported by sectors such as CSSC, biomedicine, and semiconductors. - Fundamental factors include the improvement of economic data and policy stimulus. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious buying is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices rose on Tuesday. The US tax and spending bill and Powell's dovish stance support the gold price. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year starting from September. Gold is expected to be strong in the short term, and subsequent employment data should be focused on [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: US officials are seeking to reach a trade agreement by July 9. The supply is high, demand may weaken, and the inventory growth has slowed down. The price may fall in the future, and the negotiation results and tariff policies should be focused on. - Aluminum: The aluminum price rose due to the increase in copper prices. The LME inventory is increasing, and the domestic inventory has reached the inflection point of destocking. The warehouse receipts are decreasing. - Aluminum Alloy: It is in the off - season of demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the price. The price is expected to be strong in the short term with limited upside. - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be strong in the short term but will be restricted in the medium term. - Carbonate Lithium: The supply is relatively loose, and one should wait for the opportunity after the rebound meets resistance. - Industrial Silicon: The price fell sharply, and the supply is unstable. It is expected to be in a weak - oscillating state, and one should observe. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [5][6][7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The short - term oil price will continue to oscillate due to the game between summer demand and OPEC+ production increase prospects. - Asphalt: The price is oscillating strongly, following the oil price. The inventory is being destocked, and the situation in the peak - demand season should be focused on. - PX: The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand feedback is negative. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly. - PTA: The short - term basis has fallen, the demand is low, and the price may fall slightly later. - Ethylene Glycol: The price center has fallen, and the inventory at the port has decreased. The price will oscillate. - Short - Fiber: The inventory is being destocked slowly, and the price will oscillate weakly following the cost. - Methanol: The price is oscillating, affected by factors such as inventory and supply. The operation of Iranian devices should be focused on. - PP: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand. - LLDPE: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to the increase in production and weak demand in the off - season [9][10][12]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The short - term CBOT soybeans may have weather - related premium support due to less rainfall and higher temperatures in the main production areas in the next two weeks. - Bean and Rapeseed Meal: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the basis is expected to be weak. The stable price of US soybeans provides some support. - Bean and Rapeseed Oil: The supply of soybean oil is loose, and it may be under pressure following related oils and fats. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to improve, and the high inventory at the port is being digested. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to continue to weaken due to the exhaustion of利好 factors. - Corn: The spot price is strong, while the futures price is weak. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption, the corn price is likely to rise. - Pig: The spot price has rebounded due to the reduction of group - farm slaughter at the end of the month. The supply is expected to increase in July, and the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [14][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade negotiations have made progress, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. However, short - term market sentiment in China has declined, and domestic risk has cooled [2]. - For asset classes, the stock index is expected to experience short - term volatile corrections, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black commodities are in short - term low - level volatile rebounds, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is advised; precious metals are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: In May, US consumer spending unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%. Inflation rose moderately, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the US dollar was generally weak. Global trade negotiations progress led to an increase in US consumer confidence and a decrease in the enthusiasm for safe - haven assets [2]. - Domestic: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce organized a new energy vehicle consumption season. Consumption policy stimulus has increased, which is helpful for boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term. However, short - term domestic market sentiment has declined [2][3]. - Asset operations: For stocks, short - term cautious long positions; for treasury bonds, cautious observation; for commodities, different sectors have different operations as mentioned above [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to fall due to the drag of sectors such as banking, insurance, oil and gas exploration, and digital currency. Policy stimulus is beneficial in the short term, but market sentiment has declined. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Recently, precious metals have corrected from high levels. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran weakened the safe - haven sentiment, and weak US economic data led to a decline in gold prices. Although the PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations, the safe - haven property still provides support. In the short term, gold is expected to be volatile and weak [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: As the 90 - day tariff suspension deadline approaches, the White House may extend it. Fed officials' statements and Trump's possible appointment of the Fed chair have increased the rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar has declined. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. Wait for the right time to short [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the aluminum price has continued to rise slightly. LME inventory increased last Friday, and the domestic aluminum inventory drawdown may have reached an inflection point [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It has entered the off - season, and manufacturing orders are weak. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term with limited upside [5]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and the operating rate has rebounded but is still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there are medium - term constraints [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro sentiment has boosted the price, and it is short - term strong and volatile. Fundamentals are loose, and opportunities after the rebound meets resistance can be awaited [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are four short - term positive factors, and it is volatile and strong. Short - term long positions can be considered, or wait for opportunities after the rebound [7]. - **Polysilicon**: It is short - term strong and volatile due to industrial silicon production cuts. Fundamentals are loose, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has been withdrawn, and the market focus has returned to supply and demand. The OPEC+ meeting's August production decision will be crucial, and the market generally expects a continued increase of 411,000 barrels per day. The price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low, and asphalt prices are strong and volatile. Shipments have improved, and inventory drawdown is good. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [10]. - **PX**: Cost support is strong in the short term, but oil price declines bring uncertainties. It is expected to be strong and volatile following crude oil [10]. - **PTA**: The basis remains high, but downstream demand is expected to be low for a long time. The upward price space is limited [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the decline in oil prices, the price center has dropped, and it is expected to be volatile [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has followed the decline in crude oil prices. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term [11]. - **Methanol**: There are negative factors such as increased inland arrivals and port inventory accumulation, but there is also support from inland maintenance in July. It is volatile and strong [12]. - **PP**: Production has increased slightly, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [13]. - **LLDPE**: Production has increased, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main growing areas is favorable for crop growth, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The USDA report in late June may have a negative impact. Policy changes before July need attention [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the 09 - contract cycle. Rapeseed meal is dominated by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: For rapeseed oil, import news eases supply concerns, but high port inventory increases risks. For soybean oil, supply is loose, and the inventory is seasonally recovering but still at a low level [16]. - **Palm Oil**: The positive factors are exhausted, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to increased domestic inventory [17][18]. - **Corn**: The spot market is strong, but the futures market is affected by rumors. After the seasonal wheat substitution, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, the flexibility of slaughter weight increases price resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [18].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable online retail landscape and suggests focusing on the progress of offline retail adjustments [1]. Core Insights - The offline retail sector shows varied performance, with trade experiencing revenue growth and profit increase, while other segments like tourism retail and department stores face challenges [5][6]. - The trade sector is highlighted as a growth area, with significant profit increases in 2025 Q1 compared to the previous year [7][10]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the ongoing adjustments in offline retail formats to identify potential investment opportunities [1]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Offline Retail Overall Performance - Annual - Trade sector revenue increased by 14% to 53.39 billion, with net profit up 25% to 4.78 billion [5]. - Tourism retail saw a dramatic revenue increase of 161% to 17.60 billion, but net profit decreased by 36% to 4.27 billion [5]. - Department stores and supermarkets faced significant declines, with department store revenue down 7% and net profit down 37% [5]. 1.1 Offline Retail Overall Performance - Q1 - In 2025 Q1, trade sector revenue rose by 21% to 11.55 billion, with net profit increasing by 70% to 1.22 billion [7]. - General retail and professional chains experienced revenue declines of 21% and 24%, respectively, with net profits also decreasing [7]. - Tourism retail revenue decreased by 11%, with net profit down 16% [7]. 1.2 Trade Sector Overall Performance - Annual & Q1 - Nearly half of the 13 listed companies in the trade sector reported profit growth in 2024, with notable increases from Jiangsu Guotai (+14%) and Zhongxin Metal (+269%) in Q1 2025 [10]. - The report highlights the resilience of certain companies within the trade sector despite overall market challenges [10]. 1.3 General Retail - Department Store Performance - The department store sector saw most companies report profit declines in 2024, with only a few, such as Dalian Friendship, showing significant growth [12]. - The performance trend continued into Q1 2025, with most companies maintaining similar challenges [12]. 1.3 General Retail - Supermarket Performance - The supermarket sector had mixed results, with some companies like Zhongbai Group showing profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025 [15]. - The report notes that several supermarkets are beginning to recover from previous declines [15]. 1.3 General Retail - Commercial Property Management Performance - The commercial property management sector had 10 out of 15 companies reporting profit declines in 2024, but some, like Huitong Energy, showed significant growth [17]. - The positive trend continued into Q1 2025 for a few companies [17]. 1.4 Professional Chains & Tourism Retail Performance - The professional chain sector had limited growth, with only two companies reporting profit increases in 2024 [20]. - The tourism retail sector faced challenges, with China Duty Free reporting a 36% decline in profit for 2024 [21]. 1.5 Key Company Performances - Yonghui Supermarket - Yonghui Supermarket reported a revenue decline of 14% in 2024, with a significant drop in net profit [25]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, including store closures and optimizations, which impacted its financial performance [26]. 1.5 Key Company Performances - Bubugao - Bubugao achieved a revenue increase of 11% in 2024, with a notable profit turnaround [30]. - The company continued to show strong performance in Q1 2025, with a revenue increase of 24% and a profit increase of 488% [32].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The March retail sales growth has rebounded month-on-month, indicating strengthened consumer policy expectations. The food and beverage index increased by 0.2% from April 14 to April 18, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The sub-sectors of soft drinks (+4.4%), processed foods (+4.1%), and baked goods (+3.9%) performed relatively well [4][13][15] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February. The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in retail sales, with food and beverage categories showing significant growth [4][14][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The March retail sales growth has rebounded, reflecting stronger consumer policy expectations. The food and beverage index increased by 0.2%, ranking 15th among sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.3 percentage points. The sub-sectors of soft drinks, processed foods, and baked goods showed leading performance [4][13][15] Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.2% from April 14 to April 18, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The leading sub-sectors included soft drinks (+4.4%), processed foods (+4.1%), and baked goods (+3.9%) [4][15] Upstream Data - The price of whole milk powder at GDT auction was $4,171 per ton, up 2.7% month-on-month and up 28.7% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, unchanged month-on-month but down 11.5% year-on-year [19][23] Alcohol Industry Data - The production of large-scale white liquor from January to March was 1.032 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The beer production in March was 312.8 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [48][47] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods. Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process, while Shanxi Fenjiu is anticipated to have high growth certainty in the medium term [6][14][56]