商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年7月2日 研究所晨会观点精萃 贾利军 宏观金融：贸易协议面临不确定性，避险情绪有所升温 【宏观】 海外方面，鲍威尔重申美联储在降息前需等待更多数据，未排除 7 月行 动可能性，表态略微偏鸽，但数据显示劳动力市场需求的增长好于预期，美元指 数下跌后反弹；此外，虽然美国总统称美国或与印度达成贸易协议，但威胁对日 本征收更高关税，市场权衡了美国贸易协议的不确定性和美国税收法案的情况， 全球风险偏好有所降温。国内方面，中国 6 月份制造业 PMI 为 49.7%，比上月上 升 0.2 个百分点，经济增长有所加快；政策方面，国内消费政策刺激加强，短期 有助于提振国内风险偏好；且短期国外市场回暖以及人民币汇率升值，国内市场 情绪回暖，国内风险有所升温。资产上：股指短期震荡反弹，短期谨慎做多。国 债短期高位震荡，谨慎观望。商品板块来看，黑色短期低位震荡反弹，短期谨慎 做多；有色短期震荡偏强，短期谨慎做多；能化短期震荡，谨慎观望；贵金属短 期高位震荡，谨慎做多。 冯冰 【股指】 在中船系、生物医药以及半导体等板块的支撑下，国 ...

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 观 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 点 精 萃 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com. ...

01 线下零售 02 线上零售 03 风险提示 证券研究报告 商贸零售2024年报及25Q1季报总结 线上零售格局趋稳，关注线下业态调改进展 分析师：赵中平 执业编号：S1130524050003 分析师：许孟婕 执业编号：S1130522080003 联系人：王译 wangyi9@gjzq.com.cn 2025/05/06 1 2 01 线下零售 3 1.1、线下零售整体表现——年度 从年度业绩的同比表现来看： 增收又增利板块：贸易（收入同比+14%，归母净利润同比+25%） 增收不增利板块：旅游零售（收入同比+161%，归母净利润同比-36%） 减收但增利板块：多业态零售（收入同比-32%，归母净利润同比+11%） 收入利润均承压板块：百货（收入同比-7%，归母净利润同比-37%）、超市（收入同比-10%，归母净利润同比-99%）、 商业物业经营（收入同比-11%，归母净利润同比-54%）、专业连锁（收入同比-17%，归母净利润同比-23%） 图表：线下零售各行业2024&2023年报业绩（亿元，%） | | 营业收入 | | | | 归母净利润 | | | 归母净利润（扣非） | | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The March retail sales growth has rebounded month-on-month, indicating strengthened consumer policy expectations. The food and beverage index increased by 0.2% from April 14 to April 18, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The sub-sectors of soft drinks (+4.4%), processed foods (+4.1%), and baked goods (+3.9%) performed relatively well [4][13][15] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in March 2025 increased by 5.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 1.9 percentage points compared to January-February. The first quarter of 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 4.6% in retail sales, with food and beverage categories showing significant growth [4][14][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The March retail sales growth has rebounded, reflecting stronger consumer policy expectations. The food and beverage index increased by 0.2%, ranking 15th among sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.3 percentage points. The sub-sectors of soft drinks, processed foods, and baked goods showed leading performance [4][13][15] Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.2% from April 14 to April 18, ranking 15th among 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The leading sub-sectors included soft drinks (+4.4%), processed foods (+4.1%), and baked goods (+3.9%) [4][15] Upstream Data - The price of whole milk powder at GDT auction was $4,171 per ton, up 2.7% month-on-month and up 28.7% year-on-year. The domestic fresh milk price was 3.1 yuan per kilogram, unchanged month-on-month but down 11.5% year-on-year [19][23] Alcohol Industry Data - The production of large-scale white liquor from January to March was 1.032 million kiloliters, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The beer production in March was 312.8 million kiloliters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [48][47] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods. Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process, while Shanxi Fenjiu is anticipated to have high growth certainty in the medium term [6][14][56]