国外 许多投资者预计，美联储本周在降息的同时将释放偏鹰的前瞻指引，反映出FOMC内部对是否应继续降 息存在分歧。然而，高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle认为，美联储很可能不会完全排除明年1月再 次行动的可能性。"指望FOMC通过强烈暗示'1月将暂停降息'而把自己逼入死角是不现实的，因为如果 到那时劳动力市场仍在明显走弱，降息仍可能是合适的。"他指出，自9月就业数据发布以来，官方尚未 公布新的劳动力市场统计，这使得票委们在本周会议中更不愿过早锁定1月政策路径。"在缺乏最新就业 数据的情况下，决策者会格外谨慎，避免束缚自己的政策灵活性。"因此，尽管本周可能降息，美联储 或将刻意保持措辞开放，为1月根据经济数据（尤其是劳动力市场动态）保留进一步宽松的空间。 2. 巴克莱：料美联储本周将降息25BP，明年3月及6月各降息25BP 巴克莱预计，美联储将于本周议息会议上将利率下调25BP至3.5%至3.75%区间，会后声明料将加入鹰派 措辞，暗示明年1月将暂缓降息。该行目前维持美国明年3月及6月各降息25个基点的预测。巴克莱认 为，新的经济预测摘要可能显示经济预测变化不大，点阵图则将反映2026年及2027年 ...

今日（11月12日）早盘，港股市场小幅高开。 中广核新能源（HK01811）公告，公司前10个月累计完成发电量15,753.4吉瓦时，同比减少3.5%。 东曜药业-B（HK01875）公告，截至2025年9月30日止9个月期间，公司营业收入为人民币6.22亿元；期 内公司权益持有人应占净亏损337.1万元。 消息面，多家公司披露业务数据。 截至发稿，恒生指数报26754.93点，上涨58.52点，涨幅0.22%。 打开百度APP畅享高清图片 恒生科技指数报5939.69点，上涨15.30点，涨幅0.26%。 其中，禾赛-W（HK02525）公告，第三季度取得净收入人民币7.95亿元，同比增加47.5%；净利润2.56 亿元，同比扭亏为盈。全年净利润指引上调到3.5亿元至4.5亿元，预计第四季度的净收入将介于10～12 亿元之间，同比增长约39%至67%。 今日早盘，禾赛跌超10%。 板块方面，创新药板块早盘集体走高。其中，百济神州涨超4%，凯莱英涨超1.8%，昭衍新药、药明合 联、药明生物涨超1%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股涨跌不一，小米涨超2%，腾讯、网易涨超1%，阿里巴巴、百度跌超2%；内 房股活跃，世茂 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant influx of capital has been observed in the Hong Kong stock market, with southbound funds achieving a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, marking a more than 100% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Data - As of September 11, southbound funds have recorded a cumulative net inflow of 10,655.49 billion HKD this year, significantly surpassing the total for the previous year [2][5]. - In September alone, southbound funds have seen net inflows for nine consecutive trading days, with the first week of September contributing over 30 billion HKD, an increase of over 10 billion HKD compared to the previous week [2][5]. Group 2: Investment Preferences - The top three stocks attracting the most net inflow from southbound funds this year are Alibaba, Meituan, and China Construction Bank, with Alibaba alone receiving over 110 billion HKD [1][10]. - The sectors receiving the most attention from southbound funds include consumer discretionary retail, banking, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, with consumer discretionary retail leading at 1,782.85 billion HKD [6][8]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the revaluation of Chinese assets is ongoing, particularly with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a bullish trend in the Hong Kong stock market [1][13]. - Investment opportunities are expected to focus on sectors such as technology, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and manufacturing, with a particular emphasis on high-dividend stocks benefiting from declining risk-free rates [13].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market continues to reach new highs for the year, driven by short-term strong performance, raising questions about sustainability until the end of the year [1] - Investors are encouraged to identify upcoming investment opportunities in the current market landscape [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September is anticipated to be confirmed, with expectations of additional rate cuts within the year [1]