Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Due to the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting, the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the gold price continued to fall. The premium of Shanghai gold continued to expand to 2.6 yuan/gram. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with good expectations for Russia-Ukraine peace talks, the gold price will fluctuate [4]. - Silver: With the preparation for the Russia-Ukraine meeting and the sharp decline of US technology stocks and Bitcoin, the risk appetite significantly cooled down, and the decline of silver price significantly widened. The premium of Shanghai silver remained at around 415 yuan/kg. Waiting for the central bank annual meeting, with the cooling of risk appetite, the downward pressure on silver price increased [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US three major stock indexes closed mixed, European three major stock indexes rose across the board; US bond yields fell collectively, the 10-year US bond yield fell 2.54 basis points to 4.306%; the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 98.28, the offshore RMB against the US dollar slightly depreciated to 7.1882; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The situation is similar to that of gold, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of gold futures decreased by 12 kilograms to 36333 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The base difference shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11020 kilograms to 1149446 kilograms, the 20-day moving average is downward, the K-line is above the 20-day moving average, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3. Today's Focus - There are a series of economic data releases and events today, including China's LPR, the introduction of parade preparation work by the State Council Information Office, the final value of the Eurozone's July CPI, and intensive speeches by Fed members [4]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 0.84%, the short position decreased by 0.21%, and the net position decreased by 2.74% [29]. - Silver: The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.18%, the short position decreased by 1.31%, and the net position increased by 0.26% [32]. - Gold ETF: The position of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly [34]. - Silver ETF: The position of silver ETF decreased slightly, but it is still higher than that of the same period in the past two years [37]. - Warehouse receipts: The warehouse receipts of Shanghai gold, COMEX gold, Shanghai silver, and COMEX silver all increased slightly, and the COMEX gold warehouse receipts are still at a high level [38][39][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The poor consumer confidence in the US, optimistic expectations for trade negotiations, the failure of Trump's tax - cut plan, and the inconclusive Russia - Ukraine negotiations led to the decline of gold and silver prices. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate due to the continued accumulation of recent events and optimistic global trade negotiation expectations. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and are more affected by tariff concerns [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall and are still prone to rise and hard to fall. Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices [9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US Michigan consumer confidence was poor, trade negotiation expectations were optimistic, and gold prices fell again. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, European three major stock indexes rose slightly. The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 100.9828, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. US Treasury yields rose collectively. COMEX gold futures fell 0.66% to $3205.30 per ounce. The basis was - 2.9, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 15,648 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices followed the decline of gold prices. COMEX silver futures fell 0.76% to $32.43 per ounce. The basis was - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 27,764 kilograms day - on - day. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectations and reality will continue, and gold prices are still prone to rise and hard to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase [12]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 06:45: New Zealand's Q1 PPI output - 07:01: UK's May Rightmove average house asking price index - 09:30: China's housing price monthly report for 70 large and medium - sized cities - 10:00: China's April industrial added value above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, real estate investment and other monthly economic data - 17:00: Eurozone's April CPI final value - 20:30: Atlanta Fed President Bostic to deliver an opening speech at the Atlanta Fed's 2025 Financial Markets Conference - 20:45: Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams to give speeches - 22:00: US April Conference Board leading indicator [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The US Michigan consumer confidence was poor, trade negotiation expectations were optimistic, and gold prices fell. The US dollar index rose, US Treasury yields rose, and the US stock market rose. The basis was negative, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, silver prices followed the decline. The basis was negative, and the warehouse receipts decreased [5]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2,304 (a decrease of 1.24%), the short positions decreased by 2,341 (a decrease of 2.95%), and the net position increased by 37 (an increase of 0.03%) [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 9,292 (a decrease of 2.07%), the short positions decreased by 31,527 (a decrease of 9.32%), and the net position increased by 22,235 (an increase of 20.18%) [5][32]. - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions continued to decrease, and silver ETF positions decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year [34][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts fluctuated and decreased but remained at a high level. Shanghai gold warehouse receipts, COMEX silver warehouse receipts fluctuated at a high level, and Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to decrease but were higher than the same period last year [39][41].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has strengthened significantly, surpassing the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 100 points [2] - The FTSE China A50 index futures surged, reporting a rise of 0.84% [2] - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673 [2] Group 2 - The US Treasury bonds faced significant selling pressure due to the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which raised concerns about stagflation and increased financing costs, leading investors to seek refuge in gold and non-USD currencies [2] - The recent historical sell-off of US Treasuries was attributed to multiple factors, including fears stemming from the US government's tariff policies and the collapse of high-leverage trading strategies among hedge funds [2] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% to 22,504.68 points during the holiday period, reflecting the strength of the offshore RMB [2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau's meeting indicated a positive overall tone, stabilizing market sentiment and emphasizing the need for more proactive macro policies, which are expected to be implemented by the end of June [3] - In the short term, the Hang Seng Index is expected to fluctuate around 22,000 points, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a range trading strategy [3] - Investors are advised to focus on defensive dividend sectors while closely monitoring developments in US-China tariff negotiations and changes in non-tariff barriers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar, with significant movements in the offshore RMB market and implications for the Hong Kong stock market [1][2][4]. Currency Performance - On May 5, the offshore RMB surpassed the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year, gaining over 100 points in a single day [2]. - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, reaching a low of 99.673, reflecting a decline of 8.03% year-to-date [2][3]. Market Reactions - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose sharply, reporting an increase of 0.84% [2]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rebounded by 1.74% on May 2, closing at 22,504.68 points, driven by the strengthening of the offshore RMB [4]. Economic Policy Insights - According to Jianyin International's chief strategist, the Central Political Bureau's meeting set a positive tone for the market, emphasizing the need for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize market expectations [5]. - The strategist anticipates that relevant policies will be implemented by the end of June, with a focus on defensive dividend sectors in investment strategies [5].