交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-16 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货948元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1039元/吨，基差为-91元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5822.70万重量箱，较前一周减少2.04%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-15 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货948元/吨，FG2601收盘价为935元/吨，基差为13元，期货贴 水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5822.70万重量箱，较前一周减少2.04%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 主要逻辑和风险点 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给低位企稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, last week's soda ash operating rate declined slightly, with some soda ash plants having new maintenance plans, leading to a further contraction in supply. However, the enterprise shipment volume was decent, with the weekly shipment scale increasing, and the demand side did not weaken significantly, driving inventory down. In terms of profit, the on - screen profits of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process have turned negative, and coal prices remain relatively high, which may support costs. It is expected that the short - term fundamentals of soda ash have not weakened significantly, and costs may be supported, with prices fluctuating at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass in production decreased slightly, and the operating rate declined, indicating a contraction in supply. However, the downstream demand has poor resilience, the number of days of deep - processing orders from enterprises has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the inventory of float glass enterprises has further accumulated. In contrast, the supply of photovoltaic glass is stable, but the terminal industry has entered the year - end grid - connection stage, and the purchasing demand is limited. The inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has accumulated for two consecutive periods. In addition, it is expected that the domestic real estate support policies may be introduced recently, which may disturb the sentiment in the glass market. It is expected that the glass fundamentals will remain weak, but the new real estate policies may boost market sentiment, and glass prices may stabilize at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/14 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1170 | 1226 | - 56.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1140 | 1175 | - 35.0 | Yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 72.1 | 73.9 | - 1.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 78.4 | 74.6 | 3.8 | Ten thousand tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 164.4 | 170.7 | - 6.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Glass futures price | 987 | 1032 | - 45.0 | Yuan/ton | | Glass spot price: Shahe 5mm | 988 | 1028 | - 40.0 | Yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.8 | 15.9 | - 0.1 | Ten thousand tons | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6330.3 | 6324.7 | 5.6 | Ten thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.9 | 0.0 | Ten thousand tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.4 | 29.1 | 0.3 | Days | [5] 3.2 Market Review - **Price**: The mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area dropped from 1218 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1207 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 11 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1016 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1000 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of about 16 yuan/ton [6]. - **Soda ash supply**: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 72.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 million tons; the operating rate was 83.14%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31 percentage points. Some soda ash plants joined the maintenance queue. For example, the soda ash plant of Xiangyu Yanhua planned to reduce its load on November 18, with an expected impact period of 5 - 6 days and a total company capacity of about 1 million tons; the soda ash plant of Jiangsu Jingshen planned to reduce its operation on November 19, with an undetermined impact period and a total company capacity of about 700,000 tons. Currently, the on - screen price has fallen below the cost thresholds of the dual - alkali process and the ammonia - soda process, putting pressure on upstream profits, and the maintenance pressure may continue recently, with the supply side remaining weak [6]. - **Soda ash demand**: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous period; the number of production lines in operation (excluding zombie production lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in operation was 403, the same as the previous period. Affected by the weakening on - screen price, the profits of glass enterprises are under pressure, and the cost support strength of the coal - fired glass process is being focused on. Since the start - stop cost of glass production lines is high, cold - repair of the supply side may release a stronger bottom signal. From the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 29.4 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period. The inventory of float glass was 6330.3 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 5.6 million weight boxes. Overall, the glass supply shows signs of contraction, and the drag on soda ash demand may gradually appear. The further increase in glass enterprise inventory and the weakening of deep - processing order days reflect the weak terminal demand. However, third - party institutions expect that domestic real estate support policies will be introduced recently, which may boost market sentiment. In the short term, attention should be paid to the strength of real estate policies and the progress of coal - to - gas conversion in the Shahe area, and prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - **Soda ash inventory**: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 1.6444 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 tons. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 757,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 128,000 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 887,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,000 tons [7]. - **Price difference**: As of November 21, the price difference between soda ash and glass has dropped to around 200 yuan/ton and remained at a relatively low level during the reporting period. From the perspective of product fundamentals, the weak downstream pattern of glass is relatively certain, and there are no bright spots in the fundamentals. However, recent real - estate policies may boost glass prices, and there is still room for long - short games. The fundamentals of soda ash are temporarily better than those of glass, but as the scale of glass cold - repair increases, the resilience of soda ash fundamentals faces challenges. In the short term, both soda ash and glass face certain uncertainties, and the trend of the price difference is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see [8]. 3.3 Industry News - Honglei Optics, a subsidiary of Hongtian Co., Ltd., completed the order delivery of semiconductor mask lithography machines and TGV glass substrate lithography machines. The mask direct - writing lithography machine has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 2.5μm and an alignment accuracy of ±2μm, meeting the mass - production lithography requirements of mask products with an L/S of 3μm. The other direct - writing lithography machine for the TGV glass substrate field has a minimum line - width and line - spacing resolution of 6μm and an alignment accuracy of ±4μm, meeting the production requirements of TGV glass substrates with a size of 510mm*515mm [9]. - Qibin Group has built float and photovoltaic glass production bases in Malaysia, with overseas production capacity accounting for 20%. The operation of the Shaba Guda silica sand mine and the supporting wharf has established an integrated overseas supply chain of "resources - production - sales" [9]. - The "coal - to - gas" policy is reshaping the competitive landscape of the glass industry. As an energy - intensive industry, glass production has long relied on coal as the core fuel. This transformation centered on clean - energy substitution not only triggers a structural change on the supply side but also promotes the industry's evolution from "fuel replacement" to "ecological reconstruction" and "value upgrading" [9].

Core Viewpoint - The glass market experienced a rebound in September due to expectations of a peak season, but prices have since dropped significantly, with a decline of over 20% by November 20, indicating a challenging outlook for price recovery despite increased trading volume [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The 2601 contract for glass futures reached a recent high of 1282 CNY/ton on September 25, but fell to a low of 989 CNY/ton by November 20, reflecting a decline of more than 20% [1]. - Total trading volume surged from 1.655 million contracts on September 25 to a peak of 2.568 million contracts by November 14, marking an increase of 55.2% and setting a historical high [1][4]. - Despite the influx of capital, the potential for a price rebound is limited, and further declines may occur based on the current market structure and fundamentals [1][4]. Group 2: Holding Structure and Market Sentiment - As of November 18, the top 20 positions in glass futures held 1.3345 million long contracts and 1.6740 million short contracts, resulting in a net short position of 339,500 contracts, indicating a dominant bearish sentiment [4]. - The historical context shows that the only previous instance of holding exceeding 2 million contracts occurred in July 2023, which was followed by a significant price increase [4]. Group 3: Production Costs and Policy Impacts - The production of float glass primarily relies on three fuel types, with natural gas accounting for 59.38% of the process. Current profit margins for natural gas-based production are negative at -187.7 CNY/ton, while coal and petroleum coke processes show positive margins [5]. - A government initiative to convert coal-fired production lines to cleaner gas in the Shihezi area has faced delays, but recent reports indicate that four coal-fired lines will undergo repairs to improve efficiency and emissions, potentially supporting prices [6]. Group 4: Demand and Inventory Trends - Traditionally, the glass market sees a seasonal decrease in inventory during the peak demand period starting in September, but this year has seen an increase in inventory, with a total of 65.79 million heavy boxes reported by October 31, marking a seasonal accumulation of 3.224 million heavy boxes [8][9]. - The decline in demand is primarily driven by the real estate sector, which saw a 16.9% drop in completed area from January to October, leading to an estimated 11.8% decrease in glass demand, while automotive production increased by 13.1%, contributing a modest 2.6% to demand [9].

Core Viewpoint - The "coal-to-gas" policy is fundamentally reshaping the glass industry's development logic, transitioning from reliance on coal to cleaner energy sources, which is seen as a crucial step towards high-quality development amidst the real estate sector's adjustments and carbon neutrality goals [1][2]. Policy Direction and Market Dynamics - The glass market is currently focused on supply-side changes, particularly the "coal-to-gas" initiative, which is expected to reduce supply and potentially support prices [2]. - The shift from end-of-pipe treatment to source control in regulatory approaches is a significant change, aiming to reduce emissions at the source through fuel structure upgrades [2][3]. - The "coal-to-gas" initiative is viewed as a systematic restructuring rather than a mere environmental policy adjustment, driven by both policy and market forces [2][3]. Industry Challenges and Opportunities - The underlying logic of "coal-to-gas" is to address the overcapacity issue in the glass industry by phasing out outdated production capacity through fuel system upgrades [3]. - The glass industry has faced severe challenges since 2021, including supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels, necessitating the elimination of outdated capacity and cost restructuring [3][8]. - A notable project by Zhengkang Clean Energy in Shihezi City, investing 4 billion yuan to build a clean coal-to-gas facility, is expected to save approximately 900,000 tons of coal annually and reduce energy consumption by 10% [3]. Regional Progress and Variability - The "coal-to-gas" transition is primarily concentrated in the Hebei Shihezi region, with a total of 6,000 tons/day of glass production capacity involved, but progress varies significantly among local companies due to factors like financial strength and production plans [5][6]. - As of November, four coal-fired glass production lines in Shihezi have been shut down, impacting a total daily melting capacity of 2,400 tons [6][10]. - The transition involves complex processes, and while some companies are prepared for the switch, others are still in a state of uncertainty regarding their production plans [6][7]. Economic Implications - The profitability of different fuel types varies significantly, with coal-to-gas lines achieving a weekly profit of 51.26 yuan/ton, while natural gas lines have been operating at a loss [8]. - The shift in energy structure is expected to lead to a decrease in unit energy consumption and a transition from price competition to quality competition in the glass industry [8][9]. - The core production area of Shihezi, accounting for 10% of national glass capacity, plays a crucial role in influencing national pricing trends [12]. Future Outlook - The glass industry is anticipated to enter a phase of accelerated capacity clearance between 2025 and 2026, integrating green development into its strategic core [12]. - The "coal-to-gas" initiative is seen as a catalyst for industry restructuring, with smaller players exiting the market and larger firms expanding their market share [12].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For soda ash, multiple plants underwent concentrated maintenance last week, and some plants reduced their load, causing a slight decline in the operating rate and a contraction in weekly supply. Demand showed a slight recovery in shipments but remained below previous highs, with weak market feedback and poor downstream purchasing willingness. Since November, soda ash inventories have continued to accumulate, and the demand side has no significant boost, so the fundamentals maintain a bearish view. In terms of cost, the on - screen profit of the ammonia - soda process has turned negative, and the combined - soda process is on the verge of profit and loss. Overall, recent plant maintenance has boosted the fundamentals, but the shutdown period is short, and upstream restart may weaken the fundamentals. As the on - screen profit weakens, the cost logic may gradually emerge, and soda ash is expected to fluctuate at a low level [3]. - For glass, the daily melting volume of float glass is stable, and the number of operating production lines remains the same, with no obvious changes on the supply side. Downstream orders are fair, and the number of deep - processing order days for float glass enterprises has slightly increased, but glass enterprise inventories are still at an absolute high in the past three years, and there are no obvious seasonal de - stocking signs. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased slightly month - on - month, and the number of operating production lines has increased, indicating stronger supply. However, demand is weak, and the inventory days of photovoltaic glass enterprises have further increased with a steep accumulation slope. Overall, both float glass and photovoltaic glass face inventory pressure and weak demand, so glass prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of the coal - to - gas policy in the Shahe area on the fundamentals and the position - holding risk of the glass main contract on the on - screen side [3]. - As of November 14, the price spread between soda ash and glass has reached 194 yuan/ton, expanding by 75 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. Although the total inventory of soda ash enterprises has increased month - on - month, the increase in photovoltaic glass production is still driving the de - stocking of heavy - soda ash inventory. In contrast, glass demand is sluggish, and both float glass and photovoltaic glass have strong inventory pressure. The fundamentals of soda ash are relatively better than those of glass. However, the price spread has expanded to an absolute high in the second half of the year, and there is a certain position - holding risk for glass. Therefore, it is not cost - effective to further go long on the spread, and short - term waiting and watching are advisable [8][9]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Market Important Data Summary | Indicator | 2025/11/14 | 2025/11/7 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soda ash futures price | 1226 | 1210 | 16.0 | yuan/ton | | Soda ash spot price | 1175 | 1160 | 15.0 | yuan/ton | | Soda ash weekly output | 73.9 | 74.7 | - 0.8 | million tons | | Soda ash shipment volume | 74.6 | 73.4 | 1.2 | million tons | | Soda ash enterprise inventory | 170.6 | 169.2 | 1.4 | million tons | | Glass futures price | 1032 | 1091 | - 59.0 | yuan/ton | | Glass spot price (Shahe 5mm) | 1028 | 1052 | - 24.0 | yuan/ton | | Float glass daily melting volume | 15.9 | 15.9 | 0.0 | yuan/ton | | Float glass enterprise inventory | 6324.7 | 6313.6 | 11.1 | ten - thousand weight boxes | | Photovoltaic glass daily melting volume | 8.9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | million tons | | Photovoltaic glass enterprise inventory | 29.1 | 28.4 | 0.7 | days | [5] Market Review - Price: The mainstream market price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe area rose from 1175 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1195 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of about 20 yuan/ton. The spot market price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe area dropped from 1036 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 1028 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of about 8 yuan/ton [6]. - Soda ash supply: Last week, the total soda ash output was about 73.92 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7600 tons; the operating rate was 84.45%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. Recent concentrated maintenance and load - reduction operations of multiple soda ash plants have led to a contraction in upstream supply. However, the shutdown period of the maintenance capacity is short, and there is a strong restart expectation in the near term. In contrast, the capacity with load - reduction operation has not given a clear recovery plan. It is expected that soda ash supply will increase marginally driven by upstream restart, but the increase may not reach previous levels [6]. - Soda ash demand: Last week, the daily melting volume of float glass in production was 15.91 million tons, the same as the previous period; the number of production lines in production (excluding zombie lines) was 222, the same as the previous period. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass in production was 8.94 million tons, an increase of 0.13 million tons compared to the previous period; the number of production lines in production was 403, an increase of 6 compared to the previous period. The slight increase in photovoltaic glass production has slightly driven the demand for soda ash. However, from the inventory perspective, the inventory of photovoltaic glass enterprises has reached 29.08 days, an increase of 0.71 days compared to the previous period. The float glass inventory was 6324.7 ten - thousand weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 11.1 ten - thousand weight boxes. During the reporting period, large glass manufacturers actively reduced shipments, and the profit - sharing space in the Shahe area was large. However, the real - estate industry is still sluggish, and the wind and solar projects have entered the grid - connection stage, resulting in poor downstream purchasing power and limited weekly shipment volume. It is worth noting that the prices of soda ash and coal have both risen slightly recently, and the cost center has shifted upward. Overall, high glass inventory and weak terminal - industry demand maintain a bearish expectation for the fundamentals. However, the increase in the cost center may support prices, and glass is expected to fluctuate at a low level [7]. - Soda ash inventory: Last week, the soda ash inventory was 170.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.11 million tons. Among them, the light - soda ash inventory was 80.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25 million tons; the heavy - soda ash inventory was 90.71 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 million tons [7]. Industry News - Yutong Optics: Driven by new consumer business, performance has grown, and the production capacity of molded glass will be expanded to 8 million pieces per month. In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue and net profit increased rapidly, mainly benefiting from revenue growth, product - structure optimization, an increase in the proportion of overseas revenue, the rapid expansion of new consumer business, and a 1.7 - percentage - point increase in the comprehensive gross profit margin year - on - year. Currently, the molded glass (aspherical glass lenses) is in full production and in short supply. The company plans to expand the production capacity from the current monthly output of about 6 million pieces to 8 million pieces by the end of the year [10]. - Omdia: In the third quarter of 2025, the revenue of display glass reached a record 270 billion yen. Driven by both price and demand growth, it increased by 14% year - on - year and 5% quarter - on - quarter. Currently, the trading currency for display glass is still mainly the yen [10]. - Fuyao Glass: Focusing on providing full solutions for automotive glass and trim, and promoting research on the intelligent and integrated trends. The company is strengthening research on the intelligent and integrated trends of automotive glass and continuously promoting the aluminum - trim business to provide more comprehensive product solutions and services for OEM and ARG market users. With the development of the automotive industry towards electrification and intelligence, more and more new technologies are being integrated into automotive glass, and there is still room for growth in the automotive industry and automotive glass [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market presents a situation of "weak reality vs strong cost." Both glass and soda ash are in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but cost and policy expectations still support far - month prices [1][6]. - For glass, the 01 contract is considered to be in an oversupply situation. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking. Cold - repair expectations may affect soda ash demand. For soda ash, it is mainly priced by cost, and there is a downward expectation for rigid demand due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - The market is affected by structural contradictions, real - world conditions, and supply disturbances. Near - end trading focuses on weak reality and strong cost, while far - end trading anticipates cost increases and supply contractions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Structural contradictions exist. In the glass market, the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 2400 tons, and the daily melting volume has dropped to 159,100 tons. The market is still considered oversupplied. For soda ash, it is cost - priced, and without production cuts, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The rigid demand for soda ash may decline due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - In reality, the sales of glass manufacturers have weakened after price increases, and the inventory of traders and in Shahe and Hubei remains high, which may cause a negative feedback. Soda ash maintains a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with obvious oversupply, but there is cost support in the long - term [1]. - Supply disturbances exist. In November, besides the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, unexpected cold - repair plans and supply disruptions in the glass industry need to be monitored [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The overall fundamental situation is weak, but cost and policy expectations support far - month prices [6]. - Price range prediction: The price range for the glass 2601 contract is (900, 1300), and for the soda ash 2601 contract is (1100, 1500). It is recommended to avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within these ranges [9]. - Month - spread strategy: Without unexpected production cuts, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Temporarily wait and see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Glass and soda ash price range prediction: Glass 2601 contract (900, 1300), soda ash 2601 contract (1100, 1500). - Strategy suggestions: Avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within the above - mentioned ranges. For the month - spread strategy, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread without unexpected production cuts. Temporarily wait and see for the hedging and arbitrage strategy [9]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management of glass and soda ash, including futures trading and option trading [10]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 9, 2025, was 1117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the glass 01 contract was 1091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [13]. - Soda ash spot prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the soda ash 01 contract was 1210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 1 - 5 month - spread was - 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: None provided. - Negative information: The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines, and the daily melting volume may further decline. Although the glass sales rate has exceeded 100%, the sustainability needs to be observed [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow No specific information provided. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The position of the glass main contract is relatively high this week, and the long - short game may continue until near the delivery. Due to fundamental limitations, the price movement range of glass and soda ash is limited [21]. 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Glass: It maintains a C - structure. The near - end is weak, and the far - end may have cost increases and cold - repair expectations. The 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances [26]. - Soda ash: It also maintains a C - structure. The industry's oversupply expectation remains unchanged. The near - end is suppressed by high production and high inventory, and the far - end may have cost increase expectations. There are few short - term month - spread opportunities [26]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The coal price has risen, and the theoretical cost has increased. Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. At current prices, glass factories have limited willingness to actively cold - repair [38]. - Soda ash: The price of thermal coal has risen, and the cost has increased. The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1260 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1210 yuan/ton [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [47]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 170,000 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the proportion has increased significantly compared to last year. The export in September was over 180,000 tons, maintaining high expectations [48]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 159,000 tons. With the continuous weakness of glass prices and environmental protection policy expectations, there may be an increase in cold - repairs in Hubei and East China [58]. - Soda ash supply: The supply has not shown unexpected fluctuations, and the current daily production of soda ash is maintained at around 105,000 tons, with high - level supply continuing [61]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: After the spot price increase, the sales of manufacturers have weakened. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking, which may cause a negative feedback. The glass demand is currently weak, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and large spot pressure [64][65]. - Soda ash demand: The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly weakened. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 247,200 tons, corresponding to a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 49,000 tons. However, due to cold - repairs in float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand has declined month - on - month [70]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 63.136 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes, or 4.03%. The inventory days have decreased by 0.9 days to 27.1 days. The mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei remains high [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.7142 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 665,600 tons (a decrease of 11,300 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3798 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The upstream inventory is relatively stable, and the oversupply is less than expected [75][77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply of glass has recently shown an increase after reaching a relatively low level, with more disturbances on the supply - side. However, the terminal demand is still weak. Therefore, it is expected that the glass market will mainly move in a sideways pattern in the short - term [3][7]. 3. Section Summaries Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1097 yuan/ton to 1101 yuan/ton, a 0.36% increase. The cash price of Shahe Safety large - size glass remained unchanged at 1048 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 49 yuan/ton to - 53 yuan/ton, a change of 8.16% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content about the cost side is provided in the report. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with production capacity at the lowest level in the same period of history but showing signs of recovery [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming the original glass inventory [30][6]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.136 million weight boxes, a 4.03% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [46]. 4. Influencing Factors Positive Factors - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [5]. Negative Factors - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on consuming the original glass inventory [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, with increasing disturbances on the supply side recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak, so it is expected that glass will mainly move in a volatile manner [3][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1093 yuan/ton to 1105 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large glass panels remained unchanged at 1048 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from -45 yuan/ton to -57 yuan/ton, a change of 26.67% [8]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large panels in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1048 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [13]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content on cost side analysis was provided other than mentioning glass production profit, but no detailed data was given. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [24][26]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 65.79 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.24% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [45]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass shows production, consumption, output growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio from 2017 to 2024E. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the consumption is 53.1 million tons, the output growth rate is 3.94%, the consumption growth rate is -1.15%, and the net import ratio is -0.90% [46]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [6].

Core Viewpoint - The glass market is experiencing a significant price increase due to supply constraints and rising production costs, driven by government-mandated production line shutdowns and increasing raw material prices [1][3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Shahe region, four coal-fired production lines have been shut down since November 2, resulting in a loss of 2,400 tons/day of production capacity, which has led to a surge in glass trading and a production-sales rate of 166% [1] - Current daily melting capacity remains stable at 161,300 tons, with no immediate plans for production line shutdowns or restarts [3] - The overall demand has improved recently, particularly in Shahe and Hubei, with downstream sectors primarily focused on replenishing inventory [3] Price Influences - The rising prices of soda ash are contributing to increased production costs for glass manufacturers, while the demand for coal and natural gas is expected to rise during the heating season, further supporting glass prices [1] - Despite high inventory levels in glass manufacturing, the sentiment in the market is being positively influenced by macroeconomic policies and recent important meetings, suggesting a potential for price recovery [3][4] Market Outlook - The glass market is currently characterized by high inventory levels, with a slight decrease in factory stock observed recently [3] - The seasonal demand is weaker than expected, and the market is anticipated to return to fundamentals as prices adjust [4] - Future focus will be on the sustainability of production and sales, as well as the overall demand from end-users [3][4]