10月下旬以来，浮法玻璃主力合约价格持续阴跌，创下3个多月以来新低。尽管当前基本面格局依然偏弱，但我们认为，其短期继续 下行空间有限，不宜过度看空。 去库节奏或变慢 作为国内玻璃主产区，沙河地区浮法玻璃生产线从自制煤制气转向清洁能源的项目备受市场关注。整体来看，该项目对国内玻璃总日 熔量影响有限，但考虑到各厂家产线切换进度存在一定弹性，其边际变化仍值得持续跟踪。 一方面，根据《建材行业稳涨工作方案（2025—2026年）》，全国范围内已停止新批平板玻璃产能，新建或改建项目须执行产能置 换。这意味着沙河地区在推进新旧产能更替过程中，可能出现时间与空间上的错配，导致区域供应阶段性收缩，从而短暂影响市场情 绪。 另一方面，沙河地区"煤改气"的实际推进节奏仍存不确定性。据沙河发布10月18日消息，当地正推动在产玻璃生产线完成脱硫脱硝、 有色烟羽治理等环保设施建设。而隆众资讯统计显示，沙河地区燃煤产线中，已建成及在建生产线的设计产能合计约0.45万吨／日， 仍有约0.37万吨／日的产线尚未明确燃料切换计划。 此外，近期其他地区亦有新产能投放。10月10日，大连耀皮玻璃一线700吨／日产能点火，推动浮法玻璃日熔量小幅上升 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental outlook, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with many supply - side disturbances due to policies in the Shahe area, but weak downstream deep - processing orders and sluggish real - estate terminal demand [3]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, with a basis of - 31 yuan [3]. - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.276 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - The main position is net short, with a reduction in short positions [3]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary 3.2.1利多 - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [5]. - The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [5]. 3.2.2利空 - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period [6]. - The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original film inventory [6]. 3.3 Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, with increasing supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass market will fluctuate [7]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 1.59% to 1147 yuan/ton, the Shahe safety large - board spot price decreased by 0.71% to 1116 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 520% to - 31 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.6 Fundamental - Cost Side No specific content is summarized in the provided report. 3.7 Fundamental - Production and Capacity - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [26]. 3.8 Fundamental - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. 3.9 Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.276 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [46]. 3.10 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [47].

每日观点 玻璃： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-16 1、基本面：近期沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温，供应端扰动因素较 多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1124元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1129元/吨，基差为-5元，期货 升水现货；中性 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.10.9-10.10 吨。现货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1148元/吨，较节前下跌0.69%。 供给方面，近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好 情绪有所升温，供应端扰动因素较多；上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产225条，开工率 76.01%，日熔量16.13万吨，供给低位企稳。需求方面，部分中下游阶段性投机补库， 带动厂家库存小幅去化；终端地产复苏乏力，下游深加工厂订单偏弱，传统需求旺季成 色不足。截止10月9日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%， 库存处于同期历史偏高位置。综合来看，中美关税摩擦或再度升温，玻璃基本面中性偏 弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 上周玻璃期货延续下 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：能源新媒 作者：瞿新荣 冬季气温如何，需求怎样，会不会有供应风险是9-11月LNG市场比较关心问题。当前气候跟踪，2025-26年冬季拉尼娜概率上升——极端的气温变化可能 是需求迅速放大导火索，需要引起关注。此外，冬季会不会有供应中断风险？往年主要供应风险来自俄乌地缘冲突、澳大利亚港口罢工、飓风、巴拿马运 河拥堵等几个方面，目前看，最可能的供应风险来自地缘冲突与气温两方面。2025-26冬季LNG现货可能由于较低价格，以及冬季补库阶段性冲高，在冬 季旺季回到5000元/吨以上。 2025年2月份以来，上海石油天然气交易中心发布的LNG出厂价格一度呈现回落趋势（图1），在中国经济增速减缓"低通胀"背景下，天然气作为消耗量仅 次于石油和煤炭的清洁能源，今冬价格走势再次成为市场关注焦点。本文将探析天然气当前需求与价格走势。 图1： 2023-2025年LNG东北亚现货及国内出厂价走势 天然气内需疲弱，工业消费回落 1.1 天然气消费历史与趋势 1995-2003年，中国天然气消费量从172亿立方米增长到331亿立方米，10年间天然气消费量维持在200亿～300亿立方米左右，增长缓慢。1997年建 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-9 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温， 供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1210元/吨，基差为-54元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃 ...

Core Viewpoint - Binhai Investment Company (02886) demonstrated resilience and profitability in its mid-term performance for the first half of 2025, despite challenges from a warm winter and a slow recovery in the real estate market, highlighting its investment value as a leader in the urban gas industry [1][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance Overview - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately HKD 29.31 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, primarily due to a 0.9% decline in national natural gas consumption caused by the warm winter [1]. - Total gas sales volume decreased by 14% to 1.14 billion cubic meters, with core pipeline gas sales revenue around HKD 27.41 billion, down 16.8% [1]. - Engineering and natural gas pipeline installation service revenue fell by 25.6% to HKD 1.25 billion, impacted by a sluggish real estate market [1]. - Value-added service revenue grew by 7% to HKD 37.67 million, marking a positive highlight amidst the overall revenue decline [1]. Group 2: Profitability and Efficiency - Despite a revenue decline, the company's operational efficiency improved significantly, with gross profit around HKD 310 million, down 10%, but gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 10.6% [2]. - The average gross margin for urban gas increased by RMB 0.07 per cubic meter, reaching RMB 0.50, benefiting from optimized upstream gas source structure and government pricing mechanisms [2]. - The performance of value-added services, particularly the "Taiyuejia" brand gas appliance sales, saw a gross profit increase of 91%, reinforcing the company's diversified profit base [2]. Group 3: Sales Volume Recovery - Although total gas sales volume decreased by 14% in the first half, the second quarter showed a strong rebound with a 13% year-on-year increase, indicating a rapid recovery in business [3]. - Pipeline gas sales, covering residential (1.87 billion cubic meters) and industrial users (6.42 billion cubic meters), exhibited strong growth driven by recovering demand in the second quarter [3]. - Management expressed confidence in achieving annual gas sales targets, supported by domestic economic recovery and increasing clean energy demand [3]. Group 4: Financial Management and Cost Reduction - The company achieved a significant reduction in financing costs, with a composite financing rate of 4.67%, down 82 basis points year-on-year, saving approximately HKD 29.14 million [4]. - The asset-liability ratio fell below 70% for the first time in recent years, indicating a substantial improvement in financial structure [4]. - This financial stability reduces risks and provides greater flexibility for future strategic investments and business expansion [4]. Group 5: Net Profit Growth - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately HKD 173 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3%, with basic earnings per share at HKD 0.1254 [5]. - The growth in net profit demonstrates the company's success in cost control, business structure optimization, and enhanced profitability [5]. - Management anticipates continued improvement in profitability as pricing mechanisms expand and market demand recovers [5]. Group 6: Future Growth Drivers - Future growth potential is driven by government policies promoting "carbon neutrality" and "coal-to-gas" initiatives, significantly boosting natural gas demand, especially in industrial hubs [6]. - Ongoing urbanization in China is expanding the gas pipeline network, with the company investing in emerging markets like Zhejiang to enhance user base and revenue potential [7]. - The application of IoT, cloud computing, and AI technologies through its subsidiary is optimizing gas network monitoring and operational efficiency, reducing costs and enhancing market competitiveness [7]. Group 7: Dividend Appeal - Binhai Investment has consistently paid dividends since 2013, with an average dividend yield exceeding 5% over the past five years, appealing to income-focused investors [8]. - The projected dividend for the fiscal year 2024 is HKD 0.076, with an expected yield of 6.55%, and an anticipated increase to HKD 0.081 for 2025, resulting in a yield of 7.00% [8]. - The company's stable dividend policy is expected to maintain high yields, enhancing its investment attractiveness amidst anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S. [8].

协议具体内容包括，双方约定属地政府对企业购销气价倒挂进行补贴，补贴款按双方约定时间节点分批 落实到位，同时约定属地政府进行优质气源协调、推动气价联动疏导企业购气和运营成本；燃气企业则 需承担气源稳定、安全运营等责任。 在大气污染防治攻坚战的大背景下，2017年全国两会正式提出"保卫蓝天战"概念，"煤改气"清洁取暖就 是核心举措之一。彼时，京津冀大气污染传输通道"2+26"城市被列为北方冬季清洁取暖规划首批实施范 围，北方农村"煤改气"自此展开。 庞大的改造项目需要大规模投入。企业投入方面，以中国燃气（00384.HK）为例，该公司在全国推 动"煤改气"力度最大，华北是其业务投资最大的地区。据相关负责人介绍，公司华北区覆盖京津冀及山 西四个省市，占当地煤改气用户总量比重约四成，总投资额已超500亿元。政府投资方面，以天津市静 海区为例，当地政府既要拨付每户1万元左右的管网工程、壁挂炉等基础设施改造费用，还要在价格上 给予每方气超过1元的用气补贴。 为保障"煤改气"项目的可持续性，中国燃气首创"保供协议"模式，推动政企责任共担，解决管制气资源 协调、气价倒挂补贴、居民用气稳定供应等问题。 上述问题导致，在2021 ...