格隆汇9月1日｜天风证券研报指出，中国神华2025年H1归母净利润246.4亿元，同比-12%。公司煤电运 一体化大幅提高了业绩的稳定性，2025年H1秦皇岛动力煤价格跌幅约为-22.8%，公司归母净利润下滑 幅度大幅小于煤价跌幅。煤炭业务整体运行稳定，成本控制能力仍然出色。从最新的数据上看，公司年 度长协+月度长协比再度提升，现货比例再度下降，有利于公司稳定销售收入。成本方面，公司的控制 能力依然非常出色，截止2025年H1，自产煤吨煤成本177.7元/吨，同比-7.7%，除折旧及摊销费用有小 幅度的上涨，其余项目均有不同程度下降，其中修理费、其他成本下调幅度较大。公司在电力板块的资 本开支较大，根据2025年报中公布的资本开支计划，发电业务占比最高，主要投入于广东、广西、江 西、河北四省份的电厂扩建工程，总装机增量为864万千瓦，预计后续或贡献业绩增量。公司中期利润 分配方案体现对投资者回报的高度重视，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit for Q1 2025, primarily due to decreased coal sales and lower electricity generation, reflecting challenging market conditions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year - Cash flow from operating activities was 20.538 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.9% year-on-year - Total assets reached 672.307 billion yuan, an increase of 0.6% from the end of the previous year [1][6]. Coal Business - Coal production was 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year - Coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year, with self-produced coal sales at 78.5 million tons (down 4.7%) and purchased coal sales at 20.8 million tons (down 40.4%) - Average coal sales price was 506 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year [2][3]. Profitability Analysis - The coal segment's gross profit was 15.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8%, with a gross margin of 30.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year - The electricity segment's gross profit was 3.21 billion yuan, down 21.2%, with a gross margin of 15.4%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Electricity Business - Total electricity generation was 50.42 billion kWh, a decrease of 10.7% year-on-year - Average electricity selling price was 386 yuan/MWh, down 5.6% year-on-year [3][4]. Transportation Segment - Railway transportation volume was 72.5 billion ton-km, down 11.6% year-on-year - Port loading volume was 49.7 million tons, down 8.8% year-on-year - Overall profitability in the transportation segment was pressured due to declining volumes [4]. Chemical Business - Polyethylene sales were 92.0 thousand tons, up 2.8% year-on-year - Gross profit for the chemical segment was 117 million yuan, an increase of 23.2%, with a gross margin of 7.9%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Quality - Cash flow from operating activities weakened, but the company maintained a high dividend commitment - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were 155.401 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% from the beginning of the year [6]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 54.335 billion yuan, 55.976 billion yuan, and 56.059 billion yuan respectively - The company maintains a strong performance outlook due to integrated operations in coal, electricity, and transportation, with a recommendation to "buy" [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 was impacted by a decline in both coal volume and price, leading to a decrease in revenue and profit. The market is awaiting demand recovery [1][12] - The coal business experienced a drop in production and sales, with total coal sales volume down 15.3% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced downstream demand and sales policies [2] - The average selling price of coal decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, influenced by market supply and demand dynamics [2] - The power generation segment faced challenges with both generation and sales volumes declining by 10.7% year-on-year, alongside a decrease in average selling prices [4] - The transportation segment's performance was adversely affected by the decline in coal sales, with significant drops in railway and shipping volumes [5] - The coal chemical segment showed stable sales and improved profitability, with a 23.2% increase in gross profit year-on-year [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 69.585 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.949 billion yuan, down 18.0% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 20.538 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.9% year-on-year [11] Coal Business - Coal production reached 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year. The total coal sales volume was 99.3 million tons, down 15.3% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal was 506 yuan per ton, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year [2] Power Generation - Total power generation was 50.42 billion kWh, down 10.7% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 386 yuan per MWh, a decrease of 5.6% year-on-year [4] Transportation - Railway transportation volume decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with significant declines in shipping volumes across various ports [5] Coal Chemical - The coal chemical segment achieved a gross profit of 117 million yuan, an increase of 23.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 7.9% [6] Financial Quality - The company maintains a strong cash position with monetary funds of 155.401 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% from the beginning of the year [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company's performance remains stable in the coal and power sectors, with a high dividend payout enhancing long-term value [1] - The company plans to increase capital expenditure significantly in 2025, focusing on power generation and renewable energy projects [12] - The integrated operation of coal, power, and transportation provides resilience in performance, leading to a maintained "Accumulate" rating despite adjustments in profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [13] Summary by Sections Coal Business - In 2024, the company achieved a coal production of 327 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and coal sales of 459 million tons, up 2.1% [2] - The average selling price of coal was 564 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.4% year-on-year, influenced by market supply and demand [2] - The gross profit from coal operations was 80.55 billion RMB, down 8% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.0%, a decline of 2 percentage points [2] Power Business - The total power generation reached 2,232.1 billion kWh, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year, while sales volume was 2,102.8 billion kWh, up 5.3% [3] - The average selling price for electricity was 0.403 RMB/kWh, down 2.7% year-on-year, with a gross profit of 15.385 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 1.52% [3] Transportation Sector - The transportation segment maintained a high gross margin, with revenue of 54.953 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.75% [4] - The gross profit from transportation was 19.619 billion RMB, up 2.51% year-on-year, supported by efficient railway operations [4] Coal Chemical Sector - The coal chemical segment saw a decline in sales and gross margin, with polyethylene and polypropylene sales down 8.8% and 8.2% respectively [5] - The gross profit was 328 million RMB, with a gross margin of 5.8%, and revenue decreased by 7.6% year-on-year [5] Financial Quality and Shareholder Returns - The company reported a strong cash flow, with net cash inflow from operating activities at 93.348 billion RMB, an increase of 4.08% year-on-year [6] - The proposed final dividend is 2.26 RMB/share, totaling 44.903 billion RMB, with a dividend payout ratio of 76.5% [11] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted, with expected net profits of 54.335 billion RMB, 55.976 billion RMB, and 56.059 billion RMB respectively [13] - The company maintains a strong performance outlook due to its integrated operations, leading to a sustained "Accumulate" rating despite the profit forecast adjustments [13]