就在2026年刚开年，俄媒的一篇报道直接炸了锅，说中国正赶在美国前头，正式开启了人形机器人的大规模量产。看来这件事也让不少人对马斯克一直所谓 的"机器人遍地走"的未来时代的可行性,大概率也是要由中国率先给实现了。 正是当我们还深感"机器人还远了远的"时，中国就把这一高科技的"实处"一步步地把握了起来。让我们不禁感慨地问一句：到底发生了什么呢？显然这也不 是一时的急起意，甚至也不是单纯的为技术而技术的考虑。大家以前总看特斯拉的"擎天柱"在台上走两步、招招手，觉得挺科幻，可真到了要进厂打工、要 批量生产的时候，美国那边却卡壳了。 反观中国这边的动静，那可是真金白银地在往下砸。像智元机器人这种公司，第5000台机器人已经走下了生产线；优必选也定下了明确的目标，明后两年要 产出上万台。 但这更像是一块实打实的、能真正干活的劳动力，而不是那些冷冰冰的、只能在实验室里跑的模型.。更有意思的是，在我们的国家博物馆里，已经能看到 那种分拣准确率几乎百分之百的机器人，正撑起物流环节的整套运作。 现在的局面很清晰，马斯克提出了愿景，描绘了一个美好的未来，但真正把这幅画变成现实的，是咱们这种脚踏实地的行动力。在工厂的生产线逐步的向 ...

从化石揭示的人类故事到数字改写的生命科学，从登上春晚舞台的机器人到年度热词"DeepSeek"，从微 观粒子的"魔法"到宇宙尺度的奇观……回首2025年，人们深切感受到：我们正处于一场科技变革的重要 节点，见证全球创新格局重构。 文案：屈婷 海报制作：贾稀荃 新华社国内部出品 辞旧迎新之际，新华社邀请六位科技一线工作者，为你开一场"科学圆桌会"，以专业人员的个性化视 角，趣谈2025年的科技新发现，为公众展望各自领域的前沿新知。 这一组六篇文章已于2025年年底播发。现在将这些文章集纳于此，希望在新年之初，给你带来新的启 迪。 ...

巨变到来。 2025年收尾，《时代》给出年度封面，封面上高空横梁，梁上有八个人。 八人年龄不一，身份各异，但都是AI赛道各领域执牛耳者。 那条高空上的横梁隐喻十足，横梁之上，他们虚空造神，已行至文明高处。 横梁之下，未来福祸难知，脚下便是深渊。 那张照片真正致敬的，是1932年旧照，工人在建纽约摩天大楼，奠基一个时代。 而这一次，《时代》给他们统一称谓是"架构师"。他们将架构即将到来的时代。 新时代的轮廓，就藏在他们2025年的进度之中。 谷歌AI负责人哈萨比斯，主导的Gemini 3，横扫冬日，霸榜无数，在被称为"人类终极考试"的跨学科博 士考题中，正确率已飞跃至37.5%。 律师、医生、媒体人的电脑上，Gemini文字流淌，回答睿智。它能听懂播客，分析油管，完成深度调研 报告，并一键生成专业级PPT。 它的生图能力，则风靡小红书，只要说出年代地点，便能生成高度拟真的照片。 网友如坐时光机，回到北京奥运开幕式，911撞击现场，以及泰坦尼克号沉没的长夜。 受Gemini刺激，OpenAI的奥特曼，拉响了红色警报，在12月推出GPT5.2，宣称碾压Gemini3。 为证明自身，它参加了最高难度的人类推理测试，人 ...

航空板块重点推荐：人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会 20251230 摘要 人民币升值背景下，航空机场、轻工造纸等行业因成本与债务结构优化， 财务报表利润有望直接提升，年报预报期临近，预计相关板块将受市场 关注。 除直接受益板块外，外资重仓白马股（如电力设备、电子、食品饮料） 以及含较高比例人民币计价资产的大金融和地产，在人民币升值期间也 具备投资潜力。 历史数据显示，人民币快速升值阶段市场领涨行业各异，2017 年为核 心资产，2020-2021 年为新能源和军工，2022 年底至 2023 年初为经 济复苏估值修复逻辑。 本轮人民币升值与以往不同，外资驱动力减弱，内资定价力增强，市场 更偏向科技变革而非单纯经济复苏，AI 相关产业趋势值得中长期关注。 跨年及春节前，中期关注泛科技板块的同时，短期可关注直接受益于人 民币升值的航空机场和轻工造纸行业，把握年报预告披露期带来的补涨 和低位布局机会。 Q&A 长江研究所另类策略团队的研究范围和近期专题报告的背景是什么？ 长江研究所另类策略团队主要负责长江自己的指数构建，包括行业和主题内的 指数，以及红利、成长等风格策略的研究。除了指数构建外，团队还跟踪和分 析市场 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 我们认为此轮人民币升值下跨年行情配置可以落地的交易策略为中期"泛科技"+短期"防御"， 即重点关注：商业航天、机器人、AI 应用端等机会，不因当下的汇率升值而切换至传统金融防 御，科技仍是第一生产力。卫星策略上可以以较低仓位布局防守/补涨主线，如直接受益于人民 币升值的造纸与航空机场，正值年报预告披露期，汇率升值带来的业绩增厚预期将在短期内被 反复交易。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 人民币升值下的"春季躁动"机会有何不同 [Table_Summary2] 跨年布局机会：人民币升值下的受益全景图 在北向资金因圣诞假期缺席背景下，上证指数（也简称为沪指）依托内资强劲动能实现"八连 阳"，并在 12 月 25、26 日连续两日维持 1.9 万亿以上成交额，市 ...

Core Insights - The chairman and CEO of Neuberger Berman, George H. Walker, emphasizes the firm's ongoing high allocation to China, indicating that significant foreign investment in China will take time to materialize [1][9] - Walker notes the importance of diversification and maintaining investments in a complex macroeconomic environment, suggesting that global economic growth may be below expectations [1][11] Company Overview - Neuberger Berman, founded in 1939, manages assets totaling $558 billion, approximately 3.97 trillion RMB, and operates in 26 countries and 39 cities [2] - The firm has a strong presence in both public and private markets, with $358 billion in public market assets and $150 billion in private market assets as of the end of 2024 [2] Investment Strategy - Walker highlights the growing trend of active management firms entering the ETF space, with Neuberger Berman's active ETF business growing to approximately $2.5 billion [5] - The firm focuses on providing unique value in areas where it can compete effectively, particularly in active ETFs, which are expected to grow significantly [4][6] Market Trends - The demand for transparency and tax efficiency is driving the growth of active ETFs, with U.S. investors increasingly favoring these products over traditional mutual funds [5][6] - Active ETFs are currently experiencing growth rates that exceed those of passive ETFs, indicating their potential in the market [6] Risk Management - Walker stresses the importance of proactive decision-making to navigate potential crises, drawing from experiences during the 2008 financial crisis [3] - The firm aims to align its compensation structure with client interests, ensuring that deferred compensation is tied to client performance rather than company stock prices [7] Global Perspective - Neuberger Berman has maintained an overweight position in Chinese assets, reflecting a positive outlook despite the need for time before significant foreign investment increases [9] - The firm acknowledges the challenges posed by high valuations in U.S. tech stocks, suggesting that the focus should be on investment strategies rather than outright investment decisions [10]

Group 1: Company Overview - Neuberger Berman, founded in 1939, has assets under management totaling $558 billion, approximately 3.97 trillion RMB, operating in 26 countries and 39 cities globally [2] - The company has a strong presence in both public and private markets, with $358 billion in public market assets and $150 billion in private market assets as of the end of 2024 [2] - Neuberger Berman leads in the Qualified Domestic Limited Partner (QDLP) business in mainland China [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Outlook - The company has been overweight in China compared to benchmarks, but significant increases in foreign investment in Chinese assets will take time [10] - Global economic growth is expected to be below expectations, and the macro environment remains complex, emphasizing the importance of diversified investment strategies [1][12] - The valuation of U.S. tech stocks is considered high, with the focus shifting from whether to invest to how to invest, similar to historical investments in railroads [11] Group 3: ETF and Active Management Trends - The rise of global active managers entering the active ETF space is noted, with Neuberger Berman's active ETF business growing to approximately $2.5 billion [5][7] - Active ETFs are experiencing growth at a rate surpassing passive ETFs, indicating significant potential for future development [7] - The popularity of Separately Managed Accounts (SMA) is increasing due to their tax efficiency, which may compete with active ETFs [6] Group 4: Risk Management and Client Focus - The company emphasizes the importance of decision-making prior to a crisis, focusing on risk awareness and maintaining robust operational structures [4] - Neuberger Berman aligns its compensation structure with client interests, ensuring that deferred compensation is tied to client performance rather than company stock prices [8] - The firm aims to help clients navigate market volatility by encouraging disciplined, long-term investment strategies [12]

Core Points - The approval of Elon Musk's new long-term incentive plan at Tesla's annual shareholder meeting has sparked significant discussion, with a 75% support rate, potentially leading to stock earnings equivalent to 6.26 trillion RMB, setting a record in global business history [1][3] Group 1: Compensation Plan Details - The incentive plan spans 10 years and is structured around 12 tiered performance goals, requiring Tesla's market value to increase from 1.5 trillion USD to 8.5 trillion USD [3] - Key performance targets include delivering 20 million electric vehicles, acquiring 10 million active subscribers for fully autonomous driving services, mass-producing 1 million humanoid robots, and commercializing 1 million robot taxis, along with achieving a core profit target of 400 billion USD [3][4] - Musk must pay a corresponding price to unlock the stock options, which are subject to market fluctuations, and any unvested shares will expire if he ceases to be CEO within 7.5 years [3] Group 2: Market Context and Reactions - The potential earnings of 6.26 trillion RMB are comparable to the GDP of Henan Province in China for 2024 and double the annual GDP of Bangladesh, highlighting the extraordinary nature of this compensation [3] - Musk's history of overcoming seemingly impossible challenges, such as popularizing electric vehicles and reducing costs in space travel, has led shareholders to place immense trust in his ability to turn ambitious goals into reality [4] - There are ongoing debates regarding the feasibility of the performance targets, particularly concerning humanoid robots and robot taxis, which face technological, regulatory, and market acceptance challenges [4]

Core Insights - The next 25 years will be more challenging for developing economies compared to the past 25 years, with high debt burdens, weak investment and productivity growth, and rising climate change costs being significant obstacles [1] - The upcoming Fortune China 500 Summit on November 11 in Shanghai will focus on how leading companies can build sustainable competitive advantages and leverage disruptive technological changes to drive growth [1][2] Group 1: Summit Themes - The summit will explore how companies can navigate through cycles with a long-term vision and establish lasting competitive advantages [1] - Discussions will include how to harness disruptive technological changes to become leaders in the industry [1] - The event will also address the integration of intelligence, resilience, and sustainability in shaping the future [1] Group 2: Special Events - The MPW Breakfast will focus on the theme "Breaking Involution, Seeking Increment" where female leaders will discuss the roots of involution and share experiences in overcoming challenges [2] - The 40U40 Luncheon will gather young leaders recognized for their innovation and industry impact across key sectors such as AI, green technology, and new consumption [2] Group 3: Summit Agenda - Key topics include CEO vision dialogues, globalization vs. localization, sustainable growth towards a green and intelligent industrial future, and the impact of AI on organizational efficiency and long-term growth [1][113]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge of the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points is attributed to multiple positive factors, including macroeconomic policy support, improving economic fundamentals, and a more favorable external environment, indicating a "slow bull" market phase with numerous investment opportunities [2][4][5]. Market Analysis - The index's breakthrough is driven by sustained macroeconomic policy efforts, including monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, alongside a gradual recovery in investor confidence, particularly in technology and innovation sectors [4][5]. - The performance of the technology sector reflects the rise of new economic momentum, while traditional sectors like consumption and real estate are experiencing a lack of investor interest [2][4][10]. Investment Opportunities - Private equity firms emphasize the importance of identifying high-quality stocks with core competitiveness and improving industry conditions, particularly in technology sub-sectors such as AI, robotics, and energy storage, as well as high-end manufacturing and innovative pharmaceuticals [2][5][14]. - The market is expected to continue to present opportunities, especially in sectors that are likely to benefit from policy catalysts and performance realization [14][15]. Performance of Private Equity - Private equity firms have reported strong performance, with average returns of 27% for subjective long positions and 43% for quantitative strategies, indicating a favorable market environment [7][8]. - However, there is a notable divergence in performance among subjective long strategies, primarily due to rapid market shifts and concentration in a few hot sectors [8][10]. Sector Differentiation - The differentiation between "old economy" stocks (like consumption and real estate) and "new economy" stocks (like technology) is significant, with the latter showing higher valuations driven by industry trends rather than mere valuation metrics [10][11]. - The current low valuations of traditional blue-chip stocks are attributed to fundamental pressures and low expectations, suggesting potential for recovery as economic conditions improve [11][12]. Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to undergo a structural upward trend, with a focus on sectors that demonstrate clear growth potential and resilience against economic fluctuations [5][6][14]. - As the market approaches year-end, there may be opportunities for style rotation and sector shifts, particularly in response to seasonal factors and upcoming economic policy discussions [15].