Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The US biofuel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Currently, it is difficult to operate in the oil market, and no trend direction has been formed. Given the strengthening of the bottom of soybean and palm oil, it is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset of buying on dips. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the rebound strength and hold short - term long positions [2] - For double - meal futures, the 05 contract maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading, and the 09 contract may gradually decline. Consider gradually laying out short positions for the 09 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the commodity market cooled down. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector, while palm oil and soybean oil showed resistance. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,996 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 584 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] c. Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation pressured international crude oil prices, but the US biofuel policy boosted US soybean oil prices. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan and Malaysia's reduction of export tariffs affected the palm oil market [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative factors. For palm oil, the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan led to inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market, but then the price rebounded [2] d. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage trading, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] 2. Double - Meal Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with no change in the closing price day - on - day, and a decrease of 24,449 lots in positions [2] b. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, with an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [2][3] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons [3] c. Market Logic - Externally, the Chinese tariff adjustment on Canadian rapeseed slightly dragged down the protein meal market, but the Brazilian discount remained firm. The main contract of domestic protein meal futures oscillated in the short term [4] - Domestically, the policy of reducing tariffs on Canadian rapeseed was a major negative factor. The spot market was supported by terminal inventory building before the Spring Festival [4] d. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract of double - meal, maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading and trade within the day. Gradually lay out short positions for the 09 contract. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [4]

1. Report Recommendation - The report recommends short - term waiting and observing in the trading strategy, suggesting waiting for inventory digestion [11][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental situation of the oil market is weak, with high production and low exports in major palm oil - producing areas leading to high inventories, and domestic inventories of three major oils also at a relatively high level. However, looking forward, there are optimistic expectations such as the downward adjustment of Malaysia's production forecast, Indonesia's confiscation of illegal plantations, and the expected increase in U.S. biodiesel soybean oil consumption in 2026 [11] - Oil prices may be approaching the bottom range [12] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: The Trump administration plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, and Indonesia has cancelled the B50 plan. In January, the estimated consumption of U.S. soybean oil decreased compared to December, while India's vegetable oil imports in December increased. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December increased, production decreased, and exports increased. Malaysia's 2026 palm oil production is expected to be lower than in 2025, and its production in January 2026 decreased. As of January 9, domestic inventories of three major oils decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year [11] - **Viewpoint Summary**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but there are optimistic long - term expectations, so short - term waiting and observing are recommended [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is neutral to low, the biodiesel spread and inventory are neutral, the import profit is negative, the high production and inventory in major producing countries are negative, and other factors are neutral. Oil prices may be near the bottom [12] - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading strategies recommend waiting and observing [13] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - The document presents multiple charts showing the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil contracts, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil contracts, and the monthly spread of various oil contracts from 2022 - 2026 [22][23][26][28][30] 3.3. Supply Side - The document shows charts of the monthly production and export of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025, the weekly arrival and port inventory of soybeans from 2022 - 2026, and the monthly import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil from 2021 - 2025 [34][36][37][38] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - The document presents charts of the total inventory of three major domestic oils from 2022 - 2026, India's imported vegetable oil inventory from 2021 - 2025, the near - month import profit and commercial inventory of palm oil from 2022 - 2026, the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory of major soybean oil plants from 2022 - 2026, the average spot crushing profit of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil from 2022 - 2026, and the inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil from 2021 - 2025 [42][44][46][48][50] 3.5. Cost Side - The document shows charts of the reference price of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price of Malaysian palm oil from 2022 - 2026, as well as the near - month shipping price of rapeseed oil and the import cost price of Chinese rapeseed from 2022 - 2026 [53][56] 3.6. Demand Side - The document presents charts of the cumulative trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil from 2022 - 2026, and the spread between palm oil and diesel, and soybean oil and heating oil from 2022 - 2026 [61][64]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Canola Oil**: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated slightly higher. The global and Canadian canola supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, which restricts prices. However, the improvement expectation of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports. There are also positive news from US biodiesel, and the supply side has continued to cut production this month with a significant increase in palm oil exports in the first half of the month. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and canola oil is in a destocking mode, supporting prices. But the arrival of Australian canola and the expected improvement in China - Canada trade relations will increase long - term supply pressure. The short - term price fluctuations are intensifying, and attention should be paid to China - Canada trade negotiations [6]. - **Canola Meal**: This week, canola meal futures continued to decline. The USDA monthly supply - demand report is bearish, dragging down US soybeans. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and generally fluctuates with soybean meal. The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China is a recent focus [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Canola Oil**: The 05 contract closed at 9,063 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The global 2025/26 canola production is expected to be 95.172 million tons, with an increase of 9.174 million tons year - on - year. Canada's 2025/26 canola production is 22 million tons, an increase of 2.761 million tons year - on - year. The improvement of China - Canada trade relations may boost Canadian canola exports, and there are positive factors such as US biodiesel news. In China, oil mills are shut down, and canola oil is destocking, but future supply pressure may increase [6]. - **Canola Meal**: The 05 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from the previous week. The USDA report is bearish for soybeans, but US soybean crushing in December 2025 reached the second - highest monthly record. In China, the supply of near - month Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, but the arrival of Australian canola increases marginal supply. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation and fluctuates with soybean meal [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices and Positions**: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 269,628 lots, an increase of 24,507 lots from last week. Canola meal futures also fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 917,639 lots, an increase of 108,294 lots from last week [12]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 6,415, compared with - 10,917 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 240,846, compared with - 107,343 last week, with an increase in net short positions [18]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 2,142, and those of canola meal were 84 [24]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 9,950 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week. The basis between the active canola oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 887 yuan/ton. The canola meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,450 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active canola meal contract was + 195 yuan/ton [31][37]. - **Futures Inter - month Spreads**: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 53 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was - 68 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [43]. - **Futures - Spot Ratios**: The ratio of the 05 canola oil - canola meal contract was 4.02, and the average spot price ratio was 3.95 [47]. - **Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils**: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,047 yuan/ton, with narrow fluctuations this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 389 yuan/ton, also with narrow fluctuations this week [56]. - **Price Spreads between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal**: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 472 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread was 770 yuan/ton [62] 3. Industry Chain Situation **Rapeseed** - **Supply - side Inventory and Arrival Forecast**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 120,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 60,000 tons, 125,000 tons, and 120,000 tons respectively [66]. - **Imported Pressing Profit**: As of January 15, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,202 yuan/ton [70]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the second week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0% [74]. - **Monthly Import Arrival Volume**: In November 2025, the total rapeseed import volume was 0.20 million tons, a decrease of 70.59 million tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72% [78] **Canola Oil** - **Supply - side Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 295,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.64%. In November 2025, the total canola oil import volume was 1.70 million tons, a decrease of 0.30 million tons compared with the same period last year [82]. - **Demand - side Consumption and Production**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 605.7 billion yuan [86]. - **Demand - side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 55,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [90] **Canola Meal** - **Supply - side Inventory**: As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week [94]. - **Supply - side Import Volume**: In November 2025, the total canola meal import volume was 214,700 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 132.96% [98]. - **Demand - side Feed Output**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2.9779 million tons [102] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of January 16, this week, canola meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 25.54%, basically the same as last week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [106]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biofuel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices, but currently, it's hard to form a trending direction. In the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to adopt a long - position mindset of buying on dips for soybean and palm oil, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength[2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the 05 contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term with intraday trading, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts[4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Agricultural, Livestock, and Edible Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 15th, under the double negative factors of Malaysia lowering the export tariff of crude palm oil in February and the easing of the Iranian crisis with a drop in international crude oil prices, palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton, down 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,882 lots. The main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton, down 1.94% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,279 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton, down 1.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,208 lots[1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On January 15th, NYMEX crude oil futures fell sharply, ending a five - day rally, with the 2 - month crude oil futures contract down 2.83 dollars or 4.6%, settling at 59.19 dollars per barrel[1]. - Discussions on canola seeds between Beijing and Canada have achieved results, and negotiations are still ongoing[1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal, and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons[1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% blending ratio. However, the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026[1][2]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil[1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%[1]. - From January 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from 390,442 tons in the same period of December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons to 18,000 tons[1]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a weekly decrease of 104,800 tons, a 4.67% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.76% year - on - year increase[2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation has pressured international crude oil prices, but the US government's approval of the 2026 biofuel quota has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil prices initially fell but recovered due to the sharp rise in US soybean oil[2]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Customs has tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the auction of domestic old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the Spring Festival stocking is still ongoing. For palm oil, Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan in 2026 has led to a recovery in import profits and inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the discussion on canola seeds has achieved results, but short - selling funds entered the market, and then the price rebounded at night[2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract[2]. - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the spread between soybean and palm oil[2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 15th, the market basically digested the negative news of Canadian rapeseed's return to the Chinese market. With weak oil and strong meal, the near - month contracts of the two - meal oscillated, and the far - month contracts were bearish. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 6,160 lots[2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3,630 - 3,790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton, mostly at a premium[3]. - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Global soybean production is raised by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and the US[3]. - As of January 9th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%[3]. - As of December 30th, the 2025/26 Argentine soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions[3]. - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 were estimated to be 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. The estimated soybean exports in January 2026 are 2.4 million tons, a 114% year - on - year increase, and the 2026 exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons[3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of imported soybeans was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons from the previous week[3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US new - year biofuel usage plan has boosted the price of US soybeans. - Domestically, the spot price of the oil mill is stable, and the near - month basis is strong. Before the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to rise. The negotiation on reducing the Canadian rapeseed tariff is ongoing and effective, and there are rumors of opening the import of Canadian rapeseed meal, which suppresses the futures market[4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - The 05 contracts of the two - meal are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, with intraday trading. Short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There is no arbitrage strategy for now[4].