2025 年 8 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：美豆油 SRE 利空出尽，国际油脂上涨 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,510 | 0.78% | 9,570 | 0.63% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,492 | 0.83% | 8,428 | -0.75% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,995 | 1.18% | 9,851 | -1.44% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,531 | 1.59% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.20 | 2.47% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 48,758 | -9332 | 55,391 | -16,867 | | | 豆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2) Core Views - Palm oil has short - term support due to positive crude oil and macro sentiment; soybean oil is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to China - US trade progress [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,982 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and (night session) 8,930 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase, and (night session) 8,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,621 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and (night session) 9,579 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% decrease. Other futures prices and their changes are also presented [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 111,443 to 500,291 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,345 to 403,926 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 140,618 to 279,490 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,073 to 506,250 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 4,753 to 280,029 lots, and open interest increased by 18,819 to 215,474 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,610 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 180 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 639 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 742 yuan/ton, and other spreads are also provided [1] b) Macro and Industry News - On July 30, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff to 50% [2] - Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, up from 173.5 million tons in the previous year [4] - Heavy rains in western, northern, and central Ukraine have slowed down the harvest progress, leading to a decline in exports and a possible drop in rapeseed production. As of July 25, Ukrainian farmers had harvested about 1 million tons of rapeseed (compared to 3.3 million tons last year) and about 7 million tons of wheat (compared to 17 million tons last year) [4] c) Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with different levels of strength defined [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic being strengthened. The probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter is higher. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the supply - side on assets. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues, and volatility jumps should be guarded against. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the United States for most economies have been announced. Except for Japan and Malaysia, most rates have been lowered, and short - term tariff uncertainty has declined. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3%, and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3%. In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0%. The number of new non - farm jobs in the US in June was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US on July 4 will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [6]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume increased slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's sixth meeting on July 1 proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. Commodities oriented to domestic demand and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year were greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there will be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure has flattened, the economic growth expectation has improved, and stagflation trading has cooled down [7]. Financial - The sentiment in the stock market has risen, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a moderately upward trend, stock index options remain cautious, and the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures has weakened [7]. Precious Metals - Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment. Gold and silver continue to adjust [7]. Shipping - The sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. For the container shipping route to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases [7]. Black Building Materials - The macro sentiment has temporarily cooled down, and black commodities have declined slightly. Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash all show a volatile trend [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Non - ferrous metals stop falling and rebound. Copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and other metals show different volatile trends [7]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and crude oil will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and other products show different trends such as volatile decline, decline, and volatility [9]. Agriculture - Agricultural varieties mostly show a volatile trend. Rubber, synthetic rubber, pulp, cotton, sugar, and other products all show a volatile trend [9].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 7 日 棕榈油：基本面矛盾不明显，国际油价影响大 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,472 | -0.07% | 8,482 | 0.12% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,944 | -0.63% | 7,916 | -0.35% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,607 | -0.12% | 9,602 | -0.05% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,062 | -0.71% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 54.54 | -0.96% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 494,606 | 13017 | 451,187 | -12,777 | | | 豆 ...

| | | 【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 7 月 3 日 棕榈油：美豆油情绪偏好，国际油脂上涨 豆油：美豆天气炒作不足，缺乏驱动 油脂基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 据调查显示，受旱季较短支撑，印尼 2024/25 年度棕榈油产量料为 4880 万吨，持平于上次预估；马来 西亚 2024/25 年度棕榈油产量料为 1,910 万吨，较上次预估小幅增长，反映出良好的收割条件支撑产量稳 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,440 | 1.25% | 8,480 | 0.47% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,018 | 0.58% | 8,018 | 0.00% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,619 | 1.50% | 9,648 | 0.30% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,063 | 2.34% | 4,0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market volatility and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak - dollar pattern continues. One should be vigilant about volatility jumps, pay attention to non - dollar assets, and maintain a strategic allocation of resource products such as gold. Domestic economic stability is maintained, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. The logic of policy - driven growth will be strengthened in the second half of the year [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time, with a more cautious view on the second - half rate - cut expectation. In May, the US retail sales month - on - month rate dropped significantly from 0.1% to - 0.9%, the industrial output month - on - month rate fell by 0.2%, and the June New York Fed manufacturing index was - 16. The US economic fundamentals face geopolitical risks and uncertainties in economic and trade prospects, and rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. As of now, 162 billion yuan of "national subsidy" funds have been allocated to local governments, and the remaining funds will be disbursed in an orderly manner. In May, fixed - asset investment continued to expand, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, service industry growth accelerated, and the decline in the year - on - year prices of commercial residential buildings in cities of all tiers continued to narrow. The added value of industrial enterprises above the national scale increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. The service production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 reached 4.1326 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - **Asset Views**: The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, and domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and the fiscal policy will implement established measures in the short term. Overseas, the inflation - expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. - **Finance**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures are experiencing the release of crowded funds, stock index options need to wait for a decline in volatility, and the bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened. All are expected to fluctuate [7]. - **Precious Metals**: With the improvement of risk appetite, precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term adjustment of gold and silver will continue due to better - than - expected Sino - US negotiations [7]. - **Shipping**: The sentiment has declined, and attention should be paid to the recovery of the loading rate in June. The market for container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, with a focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: Due to the escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict, coal and coke drive the black - building materials market to strengthen. Most products such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are expected to fluctuate, while soda ash is expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Amid the coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations, non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some products like zinc and nickel are expected to decline slightly [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The US may intervene in the Israel - Iran conflict, and crude oil will maintain high volatility. Most energy - chemical products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like crude oil, asphalt, and others expected to decline slightly, while some like ethylene glycol and short - fiber are expected to rise slightly [9]. - **Agriculture**: After substantial progress in Sino - US negotiations, the sentiment is positive for the cotton - price rebound. Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some products like oils and fats expected to decline slightly [9].

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 6 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：美国生柴政策及中东地缘情绪均偏好 | | | 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,536 | -0.02% | 8,490 | -0.54% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,156 | 0.05% | 8,136 | -0.25% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,726 | 0.36% | 9,730 | 0.04% | | | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,115 | 0.27% | | | | 期 货 | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 55.04 | -0.65% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 601,493 | -4361 | 503,940 | -1,751 | | | 豆 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/20 年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为 美国农业部（USDA）公布，2025年美国大豆生产成本预测总计为639.15美元 英亩，2026年美国大豆生产成本预测 总计为650.34美元 英亩。 月棕榈油订单，因为价格飙升 四位贸易商表示，受马来西亚基准棕榈油价格突然飙升影响，印度炼厂取消了原定于7-9月交付的6.5万吨毛棕榈油 （CPO）订单。 过去三天，马来西亚BMD毛棕榈油期货价格上涨逾6%，印度的炼油厂纷纷取消订单，通过锁定利润来对冲价格下跌 的风险。 一位在西海岸经营炼油厂并取消了 月交付的货物的印度买家表示："市场波动很大，取消购买的毛棕榈油比进 口、精炼并在当地市场销售精炼棕榈油的利润更高。" 不到一个月前，在棕榈油产量反弹导致价格跌至八个多月以来最低水平后，印度买家以每吨约1,000-1,030美元的 价格（包括成本、保险和运费）购买了毛棕榈油。 本周，棕榈油期货上涨，追随CBOT豆油期货的涨势，此前美国提议提高生物燃料的掺混量。 消息人士称，棕榈油价格的突然上涨促使印度炼油厂取消了每吨1,050-1,065美元之间的合同，每吨获利超过30 元。 一位 ...

2025 年 6 月 20 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地近端基本面改善有限，反套表达 豆油：警惕地缘缓和带来回调风险 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,538 | 涨跌幅 0.23% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,596 | 涨跌幅 0.68% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,152 | 0.84% | 8,196 | 0.54% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,691 | -0.12% | 9,737 | 0.47% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,102 | 0.02% | 4,143 | 0.95% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | / | / | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 605,854 | -49717 | 505,691 | -6,669 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 463,250 ...