证券研究报告 AI交易切换：重视国产算力和电力建设 ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年3月1日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为2月24日-27日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 ✓ 本周全A日均成交2.44万亿，环比节前一周放量超3000亿 图：万 ...

这一戏剧性的行情让资深市场人士感到震惊。据彭博，拥有三十年铜市场经验的前Trafigura Group 交易员 Mark Thompson 表示："这样的行情一辈子可能只 能遇到一次，我们距离2万美元的铜价仅差一次供应中断。" 中国资金驱动"历史性"行情 中国投资者正在大宗商品市场掀起巨浪，推动上海期货交易所（SHFE）成交量激增。 截至上周，1月份已创下上期所六大基本金属有史以来最繁忙的月度记录，周四铜的单日成交量更是达到了历史第二高位。 在中国投资者强劲买盘的推动下，铜价创下十六年来的最大单日涨幅，大宗商品市场正在经历一场罕见的历史性狂欢。 周四下午，铜价一度飙升11%，首次突破每吨14500美元的历史高位，随后在高位出现急剧回调。自12月初以来，铜价已累计上涨约21%。 此次暴涨恰逢美元汇率跌至四年多来的最低点，促使中国投资者大规模转向大宗商品市场，从锡到白银等各类金属价格均被推向历史新高。 这波由中国交易员 主导的买盘在伦敦时间凌晨2:30引爆市场，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价在不到一小时内上涨超过5%，六大基本金属指数收盘创下历史纪录。 这波行情具有明显的时段特征。伦敦金属交易所（LME）的初始暴涨 ...

每经编辑｜何小桃 1月29日晚，大宗商品上演大反转行情。 29日晚国际金价、银价一度保持大涨，现货白银日内涨幅一度达3.5%，报120.76美元/盎司，现货黄金一度大涨2%。 国际油价大涨。 另外，伦敦金属交易所(LME)三个月期铜一度大涨10.32%，随后也跳水，收窄涨幅，截至发稿，报14105美元/吨。 布伦特原油突破70美元/桶关口，现报70.33美元/桶；WTI原油日内涨幅达4.7%，报66.2美元/桶。 | W | | | ICE布油 B.IPE 延时行情 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 70 33 | | 昨年 | | 67.37 | 总手 | | | 33.72万 | | | +296 | +4.39% 开盘 | | | 67.70 | 现手 | | | 24 | | | 最高价 | 70.33 | 持 | 日 | 65.65万 | Ar | 월 | | 17.66万 | | | 最低价 | 67.53 | 博 | 合 | -1.68万 | 内 | 물 | | 16.06万 ...

分析师指出，在美国维持降息周期的背景下，市场对铜价上涨的预期并未改变;至于铜价能涨到多高，只要美国继续推进人工智能、芯片和电力建 设，就很难做出明确的预期。 受美元贬值、实物资产需求上升以及特朗普政府奉行更强硬的外交政策导致地缘政治紧张局势加剧等因素的推动，大宗商品价格在新的一年里一 路飙升。除了对能源转型至关重要的铜之外，贵金属价格也创下历史新高。就连去年因全球供应过剩担忧而承压的原油价格，近几周也出现上 涨。 美联储主席鲍威尔周三表示，美国经济前景"明显改善"，同时美联储维持利率不变。他的任期将于6月结束，之后特朗普可能会更有能力加大降息 力度。 智通财经APP获悉，受美国经济增长走强以及全球在数据中心、机器人和电力基础设施领域支出增加的预期提振，基本金属价格在2026年开局强 劲，铜价也因此创下历史新高。受多头新一轮激烈投机交易的推动，铜价录得多年来最大单日涨幅，突破每吨 14000 美元的历史新高。其他五种 主要金属价格也均上涨，其中铝价接近四年高位，锌价上涨近3%。 投资者，尤其是上海期货交易所的交易者，正大量涌入基本金属市场，他们预期美国经济增长将更加强劲，全球在数据中心、机器人和电力基础 设施方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]

Core Insights - The demand for electricity driven by big data is rapidly increasing, with a projected rise in electricity consumption in Zhangjiakou from 6 billion kWh to 8.7 billion kWh by 2024, and an estimated consumption of 9 to 10 billion kWh for the entire year [1][1][1] - The growth rate of electricity demand attributed to big data is approximately 50% [1] - There may be temporary electricity shortages in the future, but these are not related to AI and will depend on local government energy planning, power infrastructure development, and industrial management [1][1][1]