摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，内地2026年"国补"政策出台，虽然新政策将补贴金额与汽车售价挂钩，有 别于2025年的定额补贴，但补贴上限及覆盖的车款大致维持不变。该行认为，电动乘用车补贴延续，可 确保2026年电动车电池行业有高单位数增长，而强劲的电动货车及储能系统表现亦将进一步提升行业盈 利。若需求强劲导致电池材料价格持续上升，该行相信宁德时代将会通过定价策略转嫁成本压力，现予 宁德时代A股目标价490元及"增持"评级，并列为行业首选。 ...

推动电动十多年，一夜回到解放前。 随着特朗普政府取消联邦购车退税补贴，美国电动车行业骤然进入寒冬。一方面电动车销量暴跌腰斩， 消费者对电车需求低迷；另一方面，传统车企纷纷踩下急刹车，减产甚至停产诸多电动车型，将资本与 产能投入混动车，甚至是传统燃油车型。 补贴没了销量腰斩 今年10月1日，对美国电动车产业无疑是一个分水岭，一个转折点。 随着特朗普政府推动的"大美丽法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill）正式实施，美国延续了十七年之久的联邦 电动车税收抵免政策在这一天戛然而止。这项激励政策原本计划延续到2032年，但却在共和党上台之 后，提前七年宣告终结。 这项购置退税补贴对于电动车消费者至关重要。按照此前的政策，用户购置一辆纯电动新车可以获得 7500美元退税补贴，购置二手车也可以获得4000美元的补贴。在特朗普第一任期，他就曾经撤销了这些 补贴，拜登上任之后才重新恢复。 这一政策变化带来的影响立竿见影。根据Cox Automotive的数据，由于潜在购车者急于在截止前获得退 税，今年9月美国电动车销量同比暴增40%，市场份额更是创下12.4%的历史新高。 但这却是最后的狂欢。随着退税政策正式结 ...

推动电动十多年，一夜回到解放前。 这项购置退税补贴对于电动车消费者至关重要。按照此前的政策，用户购置一辆纯电动新车可以获得 7500美元退税补贴，购置二手车也可以获得4000美元的补贴。在特朗普第一任期，他就曾经撤销了这些 补贴，拜登上任之后才重新恢复。 随着特朗普政府取消联邦购车退税补贴，美国电动车行业骤然进入寒冬。一方面电动车销量暴跌腰斩， 消费者对电车需求低迷；另一方面，传统车企纷纷踩下急刹车，减产甚至停产诸多电动车型，将资本与 产能投入混动车，甚至是传统燃油车型。 补贴没了销量腰斩 今年10月1日，对美国电动车产业无疑是一个分水岭，一个转折点。 随着特朗普政府推动的"大美丽法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill）正式实施，美国延续了十七年之久的联邦 电动车税收抵免政策在这一天戛然而止。这项激励政策原本计划延续到2032年，但却在共和党上台之 后，提前七年宣告终结。 11月的情况甚至更糟糕，电动车销量同比暴跌40%，仅为7.6万辆，环比比10月继续下滑5%，普及率进 一步下降到5.1%。上一次美国电动车普及率在5%，还是2022年初。换言之，美国电动车市场已经回到 了近四年前的状况。 这一 ...

推动电动十多年，一夜回到解放前。 随着特朗普政府取消联邦购车退税补贴，美国电动车行业骤然进入寒冬。一方面电动车销量暴跌腰斩， 消费者对电车需求低迷；另一方面，传统车企纷纷踩下急刹车，减产甚至停产诸多电动车型，将资本与 产能投入混动车，甚至是传统燃油车型。 补贴没了销量腰斩 今年10月1日，对美国电动车产业无疑是一个分水岭，一个转折点。 随着特朗普政府推动的"大美丽法案"（One Big Beautiful Bill）正式实施，美国延续了十七年之久的联邦 电动车税收抵免政策在这一天戛然而止。这项激励政策原本计划延续到2032年，但却在共和党上台之 后，提前七年宣告终结。 这项购置退税补贴对于电动车消费者至关重要。按照此前的政策，用户购置一辆纯电动新车可以获得 7500美元退税补贴，购置二手车也可以获得4000美元的补贴。在特朗普第一任期，他就曾经撤销了这些 补贴，拜登上任之后才重新恢复。 这一政策变化带来的影响立竿见影。根据Cox Automotive的数据，由于潜在购车者急于在截止前获得退 税，今年9月美国电动车销量同比暴增40%，市场份额更是创下12.4%的历史新高。 但这却是最后的狂欢。随着退税政策正式结 ...

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile benefits from its internal combustion engine (ICE) and new energy vehicle (NEV) strategies, which may mitigate potential risks from electric vehicle subsidy policies [1] Group 1: Market Positioning - The company maintains a target price of HKD 23 and a "high conviction outperform" rating [1] - Geely is expected to achieve a market share of over 29% in the new energy vehicle segment this year, with export volumes reaching 420,000 units [1] Group 2: Growth Prospects - The company is entering new markets in Latin America and Europe while launching more new energy models overseas, which supports confidence in achieving its targets [1] - Monthly sales of the Geely Galaxy are projected to exceed 150,000 units, with overall sales expected to surpass the target of 3 million units for the year, and internal combustion engine sales anticipated to reach at least 1 million units [1]

Core Insights - Tesla's sales in major European markets are declining despite the launch of the upgraded Model Y, with significant drops reported in Germany and the UK [1][2][3] - The decline in sales is attributed to multiple factors, including CEO Elon Musk's controversial political stance, increased competition, and uncertainty regarding electric vehicle subsidy policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Sales Performance - In Germany, Tesla sold only 1,110 vehicles in July, a year-on-year decrease of 55.1%, with total sales for the first seven months at 10,000 units, down 57.8% compared to the previous year [1][2] - In the UK, Tesla's registrations fell from 2,462 vehicles last July to 987 in July this year, marking a 60% decline [1][2] - Other European markets also showed declines, with France down 27% to 1,307 vehicles, Sweden down 86% to 163 vehicles, and Belgium down 58% to 460 vehicles [1] - Conversely, Spain and Norway saw increases in registrations, with growth rates of 27% and 83%, respectively [1] Group 2: Market Context - The overall demand for electric vehicles in Germany remains strong, with new registrations increasing by 58% in July to 48,614 vehicles, highlighting Tesla's competitive disadvantage [2] - The UK automotive market experienced a 5% decline in overall registrations, but Tesla's drop was significantly larger than the market average [2] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD is performing well in Europe, with sales in Germany increasing nearly fivefold to 1,126 vehicles and registrations in the UK growing over fourfold to 3,184 vehicles [3] - Consumer sentiment towards Elon Musk has declined, with a 26% drop in favorability towards him and a 32% decrease in favorability towards the Tesla brand, impacting future purchase likelihood [3] - In response to these challenges, Tesla's board approved a new compensation package of 96 million shares for Musk to incentivize performance improvement [3]

Group 1 - The UK government announced a new subsidy policy for electric vehicles (EVs) totaling £650 million, which will assess subsidy eligibility based on the carbon emissions of the electricity used in vehicle production [1] - EVs priced below £37,000 can receive a maximum subsidy of £3,750 for the lowest emissions models, while slightly higher emissions models can receive up to £1,500 [1] - The policy has caused confusion within the automotive industry, with some companies establishing "war rooms" to analyze which models fall under the various emission categories [1] Group 2 - Industry experts warn that the policy may suppress new car sales in the short term and negatively impact second-hand EV prices in the long term [1] - The British Vehicle Rental and Leasing Association (BVRLA) expressed concerns that stimulating new car demand without supporting the second-hand market could accelerate depreciation of used car prices [2] - The Chinese Embassy in the UK urged the government to ensure a fair and non-discriminatory environment for investments from all countries, criticizing the policy as exclusionary and protectionist [2] Group 3 - BYD's executive vice president criticized the subsidy policy as "meaningless," suggesting it aims to exclude Chinese brands and acts as a "backdoor tariff" [2] - BYD plans to open approximately 280 stores in the UK, creating over 5,000 jobs, with each store expected to employ around 20 people [3] - BYD aims to localize production in Europe through factories in Hungary and Turkey, and plans to establish 2,000 retail stores across Europe, with Chinese brands currently holding nearly 5% market share in the UK and European EV markets [3]

Core Points - Elon Musk has officially established a new political party called the "America Party" to challenge the existing Democratic and Republican parties, driven by dissatisfaction with the recently passed "Big Beautiful Bill" [3][5][6] - The new party aims to participate in upcoming midterm elections, with Musk's immediate goal being to secure seats in the Texas congressional elections [7][24] - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to significantly impact Tesla and the broader electric vehicle and renewable energy sectors by eliminating subsidies and incentives that have supported their growth [17][19][20] Group 1: Formation of the America Party - Musk's decision to create the America Party follows his public discontent with the "Big Beautiful Bill," which he believes will exacerbate the national debt and eliminate crucial subsidies for electric vehicles [5][17] - The party's registration process is straightforward, but the challenge lies in meeting the requirements to participate in elections, which Musk is likely to navigate successfully due to his influence and resources [6][24] - Musk's America Party aims to win 1-2 Senate seats and 8-10 House seats, potentially influencing contentious legislation if successful [24] Group 2: Impact of the Big Beautiful Bill - The "Big Beautiful Bill" is projected to increase the national debt by $3-5 trillion over the next decade, which Musk has publicly criticized [17][21] - The bill will eliminate federal tax credits for electric vehicle purchases, significantly affecting Tesla's market demand and profitability [18][19] - The removal of subsidies and incentives for renewable energy projects, including solar and geothermal, will likely lead to a downturn in the industry, impacting Tesla as a major player [18][20] Group 3: Political and Business Implications - Musk's political involvement may jeopardize Tesla's business interests, as the company could become a target for retaliation from the Republican party if the America Party threatens their electoral base [27][28] - Analysts have expressed concerns that Musk's political activities could distract him from managing Tesla, potentially leading to further declines in sales, which have already seen significant drops in recent quarters [27][28] - The relationship between Musk and Trump has soured, with Trump warning that Musk's previous subsidies could be revoked, which would have dire consequences for Tesla's operations [21][27]

Core Viewpoint - The conflict between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump has intensified, leading to significant market concerns regarding Tesla's future and its valuation [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Tesla's stock price dropped by 14.2%, marking its largest single-day decline since 2020, resulting in a market capitalization loss of over $150 billion [1]. - Following Musk's criticism of the congressional spending bill, institutional investors engaged in large-scale selling of Tesla shares [2]. - The stock's trading volume was nearly double the average of the past 100 days, indicating heightened market activity and concern [3]. Group 2: Legislative Impact - The House version of the budget bill proposes to phase out the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicle purchases by the end of 2025, which has raised alarms among investors [2]. - Morgan Stanley estimates that if the bill passes, Tesla could face a profit pressure of up to $3.2 billion due to additional regulatory constraints [2]. Group 3: Political Dynamics - Musk's shifting political stance, from supporting Trump to criticizing his administration's policies, has led to skepticism from both Democratic and Republican supporters [2]. - The public confrontation between Musk and Trump could expose Tesla to uncontrollable business risks, as highlighted by investment manager Jed Ellerbroek [2]. - Steve Bannon, a former senior advisor to Trump, suggested that if Trump returns to power, a comprehensive review of government contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies would be necessary [3]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Tesla's stock has declined by 29.5% year-to-date, with a significant portion of its gains from last summer being erased due to political controversies and protests [2]. - The company's current trading price reflects a valuation of 140 times future earnings, which remains high compared to other major tech stocks like Nvidia [3].