司研究 /公司深 报告原因:强调原有的投资评级 (维持) | 市场数据: 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） 108.17 | | | 一年内最高/最低（元） 146.72/106.75 | | | 市净率 | 3.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.50 | | 流通 A 股市值 (百万元) 159,146 | | | ┣证指数/深证成指 4.182.59/14.465.79 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025年09月30日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 33.75 | | 资产负债率% | 23.93 | | 总股本/流通 A 股 (百万) | 1,472/1,471 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 (百万) | -/- | 年内股价与大盘对比走势: 沪深300指数 相关研究 证券分析师 周缘 A0230519090004 zhouyuan@swsresearch.com 联系人 申万宏源研究微信服务号 泸州老窖 厚积砺剑，蓄势待发：泸州老窖新周期进击之路 投资 - ...

报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2026 年 03 月 02 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 108.17 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 146.72/106.75 | | 市净率 | 3.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 5.50 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 159,146 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 4,182.59/14,465.79 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 33.75 | | 资产负债率% | 23.93 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 1,472/1,471 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 -20% 0% 20% 40% 03-03 04-03 05-03 06-03 07-03 08-03 09-03 10-03 11-03 12-03 01-03 02-03 ...

Core Insights - The banking sector is showing strength, with the largest bank ETF (512800) rising by 1.67% and achieving a trading volume of 1.071 billion yuan on February 5, 2026, indicating a potential recovery window for heavyweight stocks as the recent ETF redemption wave appears to be ending [6][18] - The food and beverage sector is also performing well, with the food and beverage ETF (515710) increasing by 1%, driven by improving demand for liquor and a recovering macro environment, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the sector for 2026 [7][18] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors on February 5, 2026, included: - Beauty and personal care: +3.21% - Food and beverage: +1.57% - Banking: +1.31% [3][15] - The sectors with the largest capital inflows were: - Media: 864 million yuan - Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery: 564 million yuan - Textile and apparel: 240 million yuan [3][15] - The sectors with the largest capital outflows were: - Power equipment: -12.671 billion yuan - Non-ferrous metals: -11.937 billion yuan - Electronics: -5.951 billion yuan [3][15] ETF Performance - The bank ETF (512800) has a turnover rate of 8.48% and a net subscription of 210.43 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [5][17] - The food and beverage ETF (515710) has a recent performance of -0.66% over the past six months, reflecting some volatility in the sector [4][17] - The consumer leader ETF (516130) has shown a positive trend with a 3.52% increase over the same period [4][17] Market Trends - A shift in market dynamics is occurring, with funds moving from small-cap stocks to large-cap stocks and from thematic styles to quality styles, indicating a broader market trend towards stability and quality investments [6][18] - The historical performance of the banking sector shows a high win rate before the Spring Festival, suggesting seasonal trends that could influence future performance [18]

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage sector is showing strong performance, with the Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) experiencing a notable increase, reflecting positive market sentiment in this industry [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF (515710) opened with a rapid increase, reaching a maximum intraday gain of 1.84%, and closed with a 1% increase [1]. - Major consumer goods stocks performed well, with Tianwei Food surging over 7% and Qianhe Flavor rising more than 6% [1]. - Leading liquor brands also showed strong performance, with Kweichow Moutai increasing nearly 2% and Wuliangye and Yanghe also seeing slight gains [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The recent Hu Run Research Institute report highlighted Kweichow Moutai's brand value at 795 billion yuan, ranking second overall and first among Chinese brands [2]. - The liquor sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with traditional channel prices for Moutai rebounding to over 1600 yuan, indicating a potential bottom signal for the industry [3]. - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low valuation, with the price-to-earnings ratio of the underlying index for the ETF at 20.93, which is at the 11.74% percentile of the past decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry is anticipated to experience a gradual recovery in demand as policy pressures ease, with expectations for clearer industry consolidation and improved pricing signals [4]. - The Huabao Food and Beverage ETF is positioned to capture core assets in the food and beverage sector, with approximately 60% of its portfolio allocated to leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks [4][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention due to expectations of improvement in related industries, with Moutai's wholesale prices showing unexpected resilience [4][43] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%), meat products (+0.5%), and other foods (0.0%) leading the performance [4][15] - Notable individual stock performances include Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showing significant gains, while Haoxiangni, *ST Chuntian, and Anji Food experienced declines [4][15][20] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, while the price of white strip chicken is 17.0 yuan/kg, down 1.2% year-on-year [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with each showing potential for growth in 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for Moutai during the Spring Festival is more resilient than expected, indicating a clear improvement trend for mass-market products [4] - The food and beverage index increased by 1.6% from January 26 to January 30, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.5 percentage points [4][15] - The white wine market is gaining attention, with Moutai's wholesale price rebounding to over 1600 yuan, signaling a potential bottom for the white wine sector [4][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector ranked 5th among primary sub-industries, with white wine (+3.9%) and meat products (+0.5%) leading the performance [15][16] - Key stocks such as Huangtai Liquor, Liziyuan, and CITIC Niya showed significant gains, while stocks like Haoxiangni and *ST Chuntian faced declines [4][15] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with the price of fresh milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 2.6% year-on-year [21] - The price of pork is 18.6 yuan/kg, down 19.9% year-on-year, indicating a significant drop in meat prices [23][29] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Ganyuan Food, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [6][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 60.50 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 22 times the earnings for 2025 [2][5][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a significant decline in performance due to ongoing policy impacts on the liquor industry, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue and gross margin forecasts. The projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 2.75, 3.19, and 3.67 CNY, respectively, down from previous estimates [2][9]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is focusing on optimizing its sales management and internal capabilities, which may provide resilience and recovery potential when the industry cycle turns positive [8][9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company's revenue is projected to decline to 6,186 million CNY in 2025, a decrease of 15.8% year-on-year, before recovering to 7,146 million CNY in 2026 and 8,087 million CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,203 million CNY in 2025, down 14.9% from the previous year, with a gradual increase to 2,934 million CNY by 2027 [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: The earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.75 CNY in 2025, with a recovery to 3.19 CNY in 2026 and 3.67 CNY in 2027 [4][9]. - **Profitability Ratios**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 73.9% in 2025, with net margin improving to 35.6% [4]. Market Positioning - The company is enhancing its product sales capabilities and refining its pricing management system, focusing on mid-to-high-end products, which are expected to perform better in the current market environment [8]. - The sales organization is being optimized to penetrate both domestic and external markets more effectively, with revenue from domestic markets expected to be 23.6 billion CNY and from external markets 6.3 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The report includes a comparison with peer companies, indicating that the average price-to-earnings ratio for comparable companies is around 22 for 2025, supporting the target price of 60.50 CNY for the company [10].