证券研究报告 | 2025年08月27日 迎驾贡酒（603198.SH） 优于大市 2025Q2 收入及净利润降幅扩大，持续释放需求压力 2025Q2 收入、净利润降幅环比扩大，进一步释放需求压力。2025H1 公司实现营 业总收入 31.60 亿元/同比-16.9%，归母净利润 11.30 亿元/同比-18.2%；其中 25Q2 营业总收入 11.13 亿元/同比-24.1%，归母净利润 3.02 亿元/同比-35.2%。 2025Q2 安徽省内需求压力增加，预计洞藏系列销售表现好于整体。分产品看， 2025Q2 中高档白酒（洞藏、金银星）收入 8.17 亿元/同比-23.6%，普通白酒（百 年迎驾贡等）收入 2.10 亿元/同比-32.9%。第二季度受政策影响各消费场景需求 均下滑较多，公司主销品价位偏低，洞 6/洞 9 在 100-200 元价位仍有低速走量， 预计下滑幅度小于整体；洞 16 及以上预计销售承压。金银星、百年迎驾贡（省 外为主）在需求普降背景下延续 2025Q1 下滑趋势。分区域看，2025Q2 省内收入 7.30 亿元/同比-20.3%，省外收入 2.96 亿元/同比-36.4%；洞藏 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月26日 今世缘（603369.SH） 优于大市 2025Q2 报表释放需求压力，主动降速为渠道纾压 中报释放需求压力，2025Q2 收入同比下降 30%。2025H1 公司实现营业总收入 69.5 亿元/同比-4.8%，归母净利润 22.3 亿元/同比-9.5%。其中 25Q2 营业总收入 18.5 亿元/同比-29.7%，归母净利润 5.85 亿元/同比-37.1%。 2025Q2特A类及以上产品收入占比95.7%，同比提升0.22pcts。分产品看，2025Q2 特 A+类收入 11.42 亿元/同比-32.1%，特 A 类收入 5.83 亿元/同比-28.1%，A 类 及以下收入 0.77 亿元/同比-41%，国缘品牌表现好于其他。第二季度受政策影响， 省内市场政商务场景受损较多，预计四开/对开（特 A+类）动销有所承压，公司 以去库挺价为主；大众消费场景跟随减少，淡雅/单开（特 A 类）产品势能支撑 下仍有少量动销，预计下滑幅度相对较少。分渠道看，2025Q2 直销（含团购） 收入 0.11 亿元/去年同期-0.17 亿元，批发代理收入 17.91 亿元/同比-31. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.20 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, and a net profit of 286 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 796 million yuan, a decline of 4.32%, with a net profit of 144 million yuan, down 9.29% year-on-year. The company aims for a revenue target of 2.30 billion yuan and a profit target of 405 million yuan for 2025 [8][9] - The company’s dividend proposal for 2024 includes a cash dividend of 4.50 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a total cash dividend of 213 million yuan, with a payout ratio of 74.5% [8] - The company’s long-term outlook remains positive due to the recovery of demand for liquor in Xinjiang and ongoing marketing reforms [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The total revenue forecast for 2025 is 2.20 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 287 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.3%. For 2026 and 2027, the net profit is expected to be 299 million yuan and 337 million yuan, respectively, indicating growth rates of 4.4% and 12.6% [7][8] - The gross profit margin for 2024 is reported at 52.3%, an increase of 4.06 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin is 13.1%, down 2.44 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 87 million yuan, a significant decrease of 71.0% year-on-year, with cash received from sales declining by 2.23% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, with a focus on strategic goals for future growth and a significant dividend proposal for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.27%, and a net profit of 286 million, down 15.9% [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 549 million, a decline of 6.61%, with net profit at 45 million, down 59.6% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 796 million, a decrease of 4.32%, and net profit was 144 million, down 9.29% [1]. - The combined revenue for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 was 1.35 billion, a decline of 5.27%, with net profit at 189 million, down 30% [1]. Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend for 2024 is 4.50 yuan per 10 shares (before tax), totaling 213 million, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 74.5% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, high-end liquor revenue was 1.53 billion, up 4.27%, with a volume decrease of 13.6% and a price increase of 20.7% [2]. - Mid-range liquor revenue was 506 million, down 8.17%, with a volume decrease of 6.47% and a price decrease of 1.82% [2]. - Low-end liquor revenue was 134 million, down 20.5%, with a volume decrease of 27.1% and a price increase of 8.99% [2]. - In terms of regions, domestic revenue was 1.6 billion, down 5.81%, accounting for 73.7%, while external revenue was 571 million, up 16.7%, accounting for 26.3% [2]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.1%, down 2.44 percentage points, primarily due to increased tax and fees as a percentage of revenue and rising expense ratios [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 52.3%, up 4.06 percentage points, attributed to improved product mix [3]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin was 18.0%, down 1.27 percentage points, mainly due to a decrease in gross profit margin [4]. - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 48.8%, down 3.12 percentage points, likely due to changes in product mix and price declines [4]. Cash Flow Analysis - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 87 million, down 71%, with cash received from sales at 2.25 billion, down 2.23% [4]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow was -59 million, compared to 160 million in the same period last year, due to a decrease in cash received from sales [4]. - Cash received from sales in Q1 2025 was 587 million, down 24.4%, indicating cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [4].