五粮液（000858.SZ）更新报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 经营稳健，份额攀升 五粮液(000858) 公司近期出现人事变动，据公告不会对生产经营产生重大影响。2026 年元春五粮液 多个单品动销显著好于大盘，份额继续提升，作为高端龙头有望率先迎来预期修复。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 83,272 | 89 ...

本报告导读： 公司近期出现人事变动，据公告不会对生产经营产生重大影响。2026 年元春五粮液 多个单品动销显著好于大盘，份额继续提升，作为高端龙头有望率先迎来预期修复。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 83,272 | 89,175 | 73,983 | 76,623 | 80,321 | | (+/-)% | 12.6% | 7.1% | -17.0% | 3.6% | 4.8% | | 净利润(归母) | 30,211 | 31,853 | 25,077 | 25,703 | 26,893 | | (+/-)% | 13.2% | 5.4% | -21.3% | 2.5% | 4.6% | | 每股净收益(元) | 7.78 | 8.21 | 6.46 | 6.62 | 6.93 | | 净资产收益率(%) | 23.3% | 23.9% | 18.5% | 18.5% | 18.9% | | ...

今年春节聚餐，不少人学会了在酒桌上扫码。 春节是一年一度的酒饮消费大节，尤其白酒最为重视，今年更是史上最长的春节长假，为创造更多酒饮 消费场景提供了可能性。 21世纪经济报道记者在春节期间注意到，各类酒企的春节经营重点进一步转向"推动C端开瓶饮用"，无 论是多达八家酒企登上马年春晚，还是各家酒企集体推出开瓶扫码促销，营销活动的核心都是围绕开瓶 率展开。 外界原本对今年春节白酒消费不抱期待，但从近期国内外机构调研来看，普遍认为春节白酒销售略好于 预期。 证券分析师张伟敬对21世纪经济报道记者透露，从机构调研的情况来看，今年春节白酒整体动销预计同 比仍然有两位数下滑，但下滑幅度比去年下半年明显收窄，"行业已经有底部信号。" 头部品牌更是交出了超预期表现。 21世纪经济报道记者注意到，马年春晚上共有8家酒类品牌亮相，仅次于2024年9家白酒登场的龙年春 晚，各家品牌营销投入力度依旧，植入深度甚至有进一步提升。 五粮液是第四年成为春晚"和美好礼"独家互动合作伙伴。 综合21世纪经济报道记者走访和券商调研的情况来看，今年茅台、五粮液等头部白酒继续占据家庭团 圆、节庆宴请等核心场景的C位。券商多预计茅台今年春节销量有两位 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the company is expected to maintain a solid market position with a focus on brand value and marketing innovation [2][3]. Core Insights - Wuliangye has positioned 2026 as the "Year of Marketing Innovation," focusing on enhancing brand value, marketing transformation, market strategies, and execution capabilities to improve market share [1]. - The company aims to expand its channel network, with plans to add 100 specialty stores and optimize existing ones, maintaining around 1,700 stores, while also enhancing e-commerce partnerships with major platforms [1]. - Wuliangye is developing a product structure centered around its core brand, with a focus on high-end products and new growth points, aiming to create billion-level products [2]. Financial Performance Forecast - For 2026, Wuliangye is projected to achieve a sales revenue of 78.84 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.48%, and a net profit of 27.07 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.91% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is estimated at 6.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.7 times [2][3]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to be around 35.78% in 2026, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20.31% [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wuliangye (000858.SZ) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the company is expected to maintain a solid market position with a focus on brand value and marketing innovation [2][3]. Core Insights - Wuliangye has positioned 2026 as the "Year of Marketing Innovation," focusing on enhancing brand value, marketing transformation, market strategies, and execution capabilities to improve market share [1]. - The company aims to expand its channel network, with plans to add 100 specialty stores and optimize existing ones, maintaining around 1,700 stores in total [1]. - Wuliangye is developing a product structure centered around its core brand, with a focus on high-end products and new growth points, targeting significant revenue contributions from key products [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2026, Wuliangye is projected to achieve a sales revenue of approximately 78.84 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.48%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach about 27.07 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.91% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2026 is estimated at 6.97 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16.7 times [2][3]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are forecasted to be 12.58% for 2023, 7.09% for 2024, -12.88% for 2025, and 1.48% for 2026 [3]. Product Strategy Summary - Wuliangye is constructing a product system characterized by "one core, two engines, two drivers, and one new," with the eighth generation of Wuliangye as the core product [2]. - The company aims to establish several strategic products with significant revenue potential, including the classic series and ultra-high-end offerings [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Australian wine market is reshaping the Chinese imported wine market after a year and a half of absence, with a significant initial increase in imports followed by a decline in sales due to inventory issues and economic pressures [2] - The low-alcohol beverage category is rapidly growing, appealing to younger consumers, but faces challenges such as brand homogenization and declining repurchase rates [2] - The white liquor industry is experiencing a shift in market dynamics, with top brands competing fiercely and some companies facing their first quarterly negative growth in nearly a decade [4] - New beverage products are emerging, with brands like Xiaojin Wine and Guoli Fang successfully capturing market share through innovative approaches [5] - The industry is expected to return to rationality in 2026, focusing on consumer needs and product quality, while smaller companies may face elimination [6] Industry Environment - The Australian wine market is seeing a resurgence in China due to the removal of anti-dumping taxes, but initial sales have not met expectations, leading to inventory issues and price reductions [2] - The low-alcohol market is projected to grow from 20 billion yuan in 2020 to 57 billion yuan by 2024, but faces challenges in brand differentiation and consumer loyalty [2] - The white liquor market is undergoing structural changes, with companies like Shanxi Fenjiu surpassing others in revenue, indicating a competitive landscape [4] - The introduction of innovative products is crucial for the industry's transformation, with a focus on low-alcohol and health-oriented offerings [5] - The industry is moving towards a more rational approach, emphasizing product quality and consumer experience, as it transitions from a bubble phase to a healthier growth period [6] Top Brand Dynamics - Guizhou Zhenjiu is upgrading its "Dazhen" product to enhance quality and market positioning, aiming to compete with top brands like Moutai [8] - Wuliangchun is celebrating its 30th anniversary with a marketing campaign that deepens emotional connections with consumers [9] - Xifengjiu is focusing on quality and cultural empowerment to drive its revival in the competitive white liquor market [10] - Moutai is launching a new product structure to meet diverse consumer needs and stabilize its market presence [14] - Niulanshan is evolving its product strategy to maintain its position in the mass market while enhancing emotional connections with consumers [18]

转自：扬子晚报 名酒与国球 跨界融合 聚光灯下，白色的乒乓球在球台两端划出凌厉的轨迹，每一次精准的落点都激起一片惊呼；光影之外， 空气中弥漫着五粮春特有的醇厚粮香，与汗水的咸涩交织在一起，构成了一幅独特的感官图景。 这不是一场寻常的业余较量，而是一场关于热爱、荣誉与品味的盛大狂欢。2025年12月27日，历时近三 个月、席卷江苏七城的"五粮春杯"江苏省首届业余乒乓球城市夺冠赛总决赛，在南京江宁体育中心迎来 了最高潮的时刻。 巅峰般对决 群雄逐鹿 作为江苏业余乒坛的"天花板"级赛事，本届比赛以超百万元的总奖池震撼业界。这不仅刷新了业余赛事 的规格，更将民间高手的竞技热情推向了顶峰。 从徐州、苏州的初赛烽火，到总决赛的王者之争，全省3000余名乒乓球爱好者跨越年龄与职业的界限， 最终在这里集结。在男子青年组、男子中年组和女子组的激烈角逐中，他们用行云流水的攻防转换，诠 释了"民间球王"的硬核实力。 热爱与梦想 赛场共鸣 在这片星光熠熠的舞台上，选手们的感受远比分数更动人。当常年活跃在社区球馆的球友，站在专业体 育馆，享受职业级的灯光和观众的掌声时；当抱着"以球会友，输赢均可"心态的女选手，经过一轮轮激 烈对决，与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry has entered a phase of stock competition, where channel confidence has become a scarce asset for manufacturers to navigate through cycles. The recent conclusion of the 29th 12·18 Consensus Building and Sharing Conference by Wuliangye has sent a clear and firm development signal to the market, emphasizing the continuous implementation of channel classification and grading management to establish a leading competitive advantage in the industry [1][24]. Group 1: Classification and Grading Management - Wuliangye's classification and grading management has been upgraded to ensure precise operations across the entire supply chain, which is crucial for sustainable brand growth. By 2025, the company aims for a 25% increase in bottle scanning and a 109% increase in banquet occurrences, reflecting the effective alignment of its policies with market demands [4][16]. - The company has developed a comprehensive and precise operational system that extends from regional markets to distributors and terminal networks, achieving "three precisions": precise market strategy adaptation, precise resource allocation, and precise alignment of development expectations [4][16][17]. - The classification and grading management provides clear operational guidance for all levels of distributors, ensuring that brand investments effectively reach target markets and core consumer groups, maximizing resource utilization efficiency [5][17]. Group 2: Stability and Profitability - In the current industry adjustment period, distributors require not only short-term profits but also a long-term stable policy environment. Wuliangye has established a reliable ecosystem for distributors through stable policies, appropriate inventory distribution, and guaranteed profits [6][19]. - The company has solidified its marketing actions, such as the 3K system operation and digital empowerment, into long-term strategic measures, thereby alleviating distributors' concerns about policy fluctuations and fostering a stable channel order [19]. - Wuliangye has implemented strict price control and a scientific profit distribution mechanism to ensure that products maintain a stable sales price, providing distributors with a reliable profit guarantee amidst industry challenges [19][20]. Group 3: Marketing Innovation and High-Quality Development - Wuliangye's strategic determination and commitment to long-termism are particularly valuable during the deep adjustment period of the liquor industry. The company will continue to focus on developing key products like Wuliang Chun, Wuliang Chun, Wuliang Te Tou Qu, and Jian Zhuang, while enhancing product sales and market foundation [20][21]. - The company has built a clear and resilient strategic product matrix and classification and grading management system for distributors, providing a long-term market anchor for sustained growth [21][22]. - By deepening classification and grading management, the 3K operational system, and digital tools, Wuliangye has effectively established a multi-dimensional connection between channel terminals and consumers, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that releases high-quality development dividends for channel partners [24].

Core Viewpoint - The core keyword for the liquor industry in 2025 is "deep adjustment," with a focus on returning to product essence and value recognition, emphasizing who can maintain quality and stabilize channels [2] Group 1: Industry Environment - The industry is currently under pressure, with demand contraction, channel stress, and price transparency, necessitating a long-term strategy focused on stability rather than short-term aggressive tactics [3] - The leading companies in the industry, such as Wuliangye, exhibit resilience, which serves as a source of confidence during the industry's adjustment period [4] Group 2: Wuliangye's Strategy - Wuliangye has adopted a long-cycle strategy, prioritizing price stability and product quality over short-term scale fluctuations [4] - The company aims to build a community of shared destiny with distributors, utilizing digital systems to empower terminals and shift the focus of value distribution towards service and sales actions [7] Group 3: Distributor Relations - Wuliangye's approach includes enhancing the relationship with distributors by ensuring both material benefits and cultural recognition, fostering a sense of partnership rather than a mere transactional relationship [8][9] - The company has seen significant growth in its banquet market, with a 30% increase in banquet sessions and bottle openings, indicating a successful strategy in engaging with consumers [10] Group 4: Cultural Integration - Wuliangye emphasizes cultural expression through various events, reinforcing its brand values and creating emotional connections with consumers [11][15] - The brand's philosophy of "harmony and beauty" resonates across different consumer groups and occasions, positioning it as a preferred choice in both domestic and international markets [17][18] Group 5: Market Positioning - Wuliangye aims to occupy a key position in the high-end business banquet segment, focusing on the 1000-1200 yuan price range, which aligns with the values of collaboration and mutual recognition in business settings [9] - The company is moving beyond being a mere social symbol to becoming a preferred choice for significant moments and gatherings, thus enhancing its market presence [17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The liquor industry is entering an adjustment phase, with a growing emphasis on quality growth, channel health, and consumption scenarios, necessitating a return to fundamental questions about the reasons and contexts for drinking [20][21] - Companies must maintain strategic focus and return to value fundamentals to navigate through this deep adjustment cycle successfully [21]

Core Insights - The 29th "12·18 Consensus Co-construction and Sharing Conference" of Wuliangye was held in Yibin, focusing on "New Situation, New Opportunities, New Journey" [1][3] - The conference is significant as it marks a critical transition point for the liquor industry, emphasizing Wuliangye's leadership in navigating changes and promoting sustainable high-quality development [3][4] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The year 2025 is anticipated to be challenging for the liquor industry, characterized by inventory and pricing pressures, alongside tests of confidence and partnership resilience [4] - The change in the conference's name from "Co-discussion, Co-construction, and Sharing" to "Consensus Co-construction and Sharing" symbolizes a strategic shift towards long-term value recognition and emotional connections with partners [6][8] Group 2: Company Strategy - Wuliangye's chairman highlighted that the current industry adjustment is cyclical, structural, and a return to market rationality, asserting the company's capability to seize opportunities during this phase [10] - The evolution of the partnership model reflects a deeper understanding of the industry chain, transitioning from a transactional relationship to a collaborative development community [10] Group 3: Product Strategy - Wuliangye is adapting to a "Three Rationality Era" in consumer behavior, focusing on the real value of products, cultural recognition, and emotional resonance [11] - The product strategy includes a clear framework with a core brand supported by various product lines, aiming to establish a comprehensive and competitive product matrix [11][13] - The introduction of the new Wuliangye zodiac wine reflects the brand's commitment to cultural and emotional value, expanding the product's significance beyond mere consumption [15] Group 4: Channel Strategy - Wuliangye is implementing a dual approach of strict management and optimization in its channel strategy to create a healthier and more efficient channel ecosystem [16] - The company is restructuring its organizational framework to enhance regional market responsiveness and improve marketing resource allocation [18] - Plans include the addition of new retail formats and partnerships with leading companies to expand market reach and enhance consumer engagement [18][19]