分区域看，省份间延续分化态势，河南/山东/四川表现略好于预期。结合渠道反馈，河南、山东下滑双 位数略好于预期，部分终端有补货行为；四川动销下滑近20%略好于节前预期；湖南反馈下滑20%+符 合预期；江苏反馈下滑20%+符合预期，安徽反馈下滑20%-30%略不及预期。 分品牌看，茅五出货较好，地产酒降幅双位数，次高端品牌仍具压力。结合渠道反馈，茅五各地表现分 化但总体B端出货周转较好，1935保持正增长，老窖坚持挺价、出货量下降双位数；汾酒环山西反馈出 货增长；苏酒洋河动销反馈下滑20%+，今世缘反馈下滑双位数；徽酒古井动销反馈下滑10%+，迎驾下 滑双位数，口子窖仍在调整；扩张型次高端品牌持续受需求影响，舍得等动销反馈下滑30%+。 智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，白酒动销在假期前一周左右出现边际加速，后逐步趋缓，整 体预计下滑20%左右，符合节前预期。细分指标不乏小亮点：一是高端茅五核心大单品周转情况较好； 二是大众宴席需求相对坚挺，江苏/河南/四川有正增长，对应中低价格带表现较好，五粮春/红花郎等部 分产品有双位数增长；三是茅五价盘小幅下探后稳住，地产酒压货情况有好转。渠道库存方面，渠道压 货意愿 ...

文｜朱浪 名门之秀五粮春，再次荣登权威品牌百强榜单。 近日，2025（第31届）中国品牌价值100强研究报告重磅发布，五粮春以276.06亿元的品牌价值位列榜单第31位，品牌价值连续8年攀升。 30年前五粮春问世，始终坚持以消费者为中心进行品牌建设工作，持续聚焦进行IP打造和品牌创新，践行长期主义，多次荣登品牌百强榜单，赢得 行业和专业机构高度认可。 伴随品牌价值的不断累积，五粮春品牌渗透力将进一步提升，消费者文化和情感认可也会更加凸显，产品市场动销有望进一步提速。 获权威机构评定 品牌价值连续攀升 1994年，中国品牌价值100强研究报告创立，历经31年，已经发展为品牌价值比较领域的专业榜单。 该榜单以跟踪时间长、专业、权威著称，专业团队通过独立研究、独立发布，让消费者及海内外各界了解中国品牌，也展现出消费趋势的新变化。 2018年，五粮春上榜中国品牌价值报告榜单百强，品牌价值为165.67亿元，当年排名第38位。2025年榜单显示，五粮春品牌价值跃升至276.06亿元（名列 榜单第31位），相较去年增长13.18亿元，连续8年保持增长。 此次五粮春再度上榜，表明其品牌内涵不断获得社会各界和专业机构认可，品 ...

9月29日，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）盘中走势震荡，截至发稿跌0.28%，溢折率0.04%，盘中频现溢 价交易。 成分股中，养元饮品涨超4%，古井贡酒、泸州老窖、金达威、中粮糖业等跟涨。 此外，据市场监管总局官网，9月28日，市场监管总局党组书记、局长罗文带队在北京调研国庆中秋节 前食品安全、特种设备安全及重要民生商品稳价保质等工作。 据第一财经，随着"十一"国庆假期的临近，旅游市场已然升温。据报道，今年"十一"假期出游人数较去 年同期出现大幅增长，同比增幅高达130%，机票预订也已全面进入高峰期。这一强劲的开局信号，预 示着今年国庆假期有望成为一个拉动内需、释放消费潜力的"超级黄金周"。 国盛证券表示，近期临近中秋国庆白酒动销旺季，白酒终端需求经历了Q2持续磨底后，临近旺季各地 动销反馈均呈现边际回暖趋势。中长期行业价值凸显。短期看弹性、中长期看龙头。 （本文机构观点来自持牌证券机构，不构成任何投资建议，亦不代表平台观点，请投资人独立判断和决 策。） Wind金融终端数据显示，食品饮料ETF天弘（159736）已连续9个交易日获资金净流入，累计"吸金"近 1.7亿元；截至9月26日，该ETF最新流通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Shu Li An Yi" consumption voucher program aims to promote Sichuan's local products, specifically Sichuan liquor and tea, through a collaboration between Yunshanfu APP and Vipshop, enhancing consumer access to these products while providing significant discounts [1][3]. Group 1: Consumption Voucher Details - The consumption vouchers will be available for online registration starting September 25, with a lottery system for selection [3][5]. - The vouchers offer discounts based on purchase amounts: 30 yuan off for purchases over 300 yuan, 100 yuan off for over 800 yuan, and 180 yuan off for over 1200 yuan [6][7]. - The vouchers can be used on various Sichuan liquor and tea brands available on Vipshop, including well-known names like Wuliangye and Langjiu [3][4]. Group 2: Collaboration and Sales Performance - Vipshop collaborates closely with major Sichuan brands to enhance product visibility and streamline supply chains, contributing to the "Sichuan goods going out" initiative [3][4]. - Since its partnership with Vipshop began in 2017, Wuliangye has seen significant sales growth, with sales figures reaching new highs this year [3]. - Langjiu has also benefited from the partnership, with over 70% of its purchasing users on Vipshop being super VIP members, indicating strong customer loyalty [4]. Group 3: Event Timeline and Participation - The event will run from September 25 to October 3, with specific timelines for registration, lottery results, and voucher usage [5][10]. - Participants must authorize their personal information for verification during the registration process [7][10]. - The vouchers will be credited to users' accounts by September 29 and will be valid for five days [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye is facing a comprehensive development crisis, marked by declining growth momentum, a collapsing pricing system, and a loss of channel confidence, which complicates its path to recovery [2][11] High-End Market Loss - Wuliangye's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 52.771 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of only 4.19% and 2.28%, respectively, while Moutai's growth rates were significantly higher at 8.89% and 9.16% [3] - The brand's image has become blurred, particularly among younger consumers who associate Wuliangye with outdated perceptions rather than modern value [3][4] Pricing System Collapse - Wuliangye's core product, the eighth generation of Pu Wu, has seen its factory price rise from 969 yuan to 1,019 yuan, while market prices have dropped below 800 yuan, creating a significant price gap [5] - The company faces a dual problem of supply-demand imbalance and ineffective channel management, leading to a vicious cycle of low prices and reduced dealer confidence [5][6] Inventory Crisis - As of the first half of 2025, Wuliangye's inventory reached 17.746 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase surpassing revenue growth, indicating ongoing inventory pressure [7][8] - The average turnover days for the eighth generation of Pu Wu have increased from 45 days to 60-65 days, with some dealers experiencing turnover periods exceeding three months [8] Response Measures - Wuliangye's measures to address the pricing collapse, such as halting supply and enhancing market control, have not resolved the fundamental issues and have instead heightened market panic [6][10] - The company's reliance on traditional advertising and slow digital transformation has hindered its ability to effectively engage with younger consumers and manage channels [10][11] Industry Context - The white liquor industry has entered an era of "refined operations," where brand strength, channel management, and product innovation are critical for survival [11] - If Wuliangye cannot overcome its current challenges, its position as a leading brand in the high-end liquor market may be jeopardized, potentially leading to a decline in its competitive standing [11]

Group 1 - The company's revenue and net profit growth rates have declined in the first half of 2025, with a significant pressure in the second quarter [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 52.771 billion yuan, up 4.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 19.492 billion yuan, up 2.28% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 76.83%, a decrease of 0.53% year-on-year, while the net margin was 38.16%, a decrease of 0.99% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the company’s liquor prices fell while sales volume increased significantly, with revenue from Wuliangye reaching 40.998 billion yuan, up 4.57% year-on-year [2] - The sales volume for Wuliangye was 273,000 tons, an increase of 12.75% year-on-year, while the average price per ton decreased by 8.35% [2] - The company is enhancing its product system with a focus on both high-end and mid-to-low-end markets, launching new products to meet diverse consumer needs [2] Group 3 - The company has optimized its channel structure and achieved significant results in digital transformation, with 1,768 exclusive stores and 7,990 new supply terminals [3] - The implementation of a "direct delivery" model in 20 core cities has improved channel efficiency and market responsiveness [3] - The company is focusing on brand management and performance reform to enhance market adaptability and drive high-quality development [3] Group 4 - Revenue forecasts for the company are 90.3 billion yuan, 94.8 billion yuan, and 100.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 32 billion yuan, 33.6 billion yuan, and 35.4 billion yuan [4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is 15 times, with future PE ratios projected at 15.6, 14.8, and 14.1 for the next three years [4] - The company maintains a strong recommendation rating based on its performance outlook [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Wuliangye [2][6] Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its financial performance, with H1 2025 revenue of 52.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a net profit of 19.49 billion yuan, up 2.3% [2][6] - The target price is set at 215 yuan, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential and dividend support [2][6] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on enhancing marketing execution and operational efficiency, which is expected to drive future growth [6] Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 89.175 billion yuan, with a decline of 5.1% in 2025 to 84.646 billion yuan, followed by a recovery to 87.270 billion yuan in 2026 and 93.496 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - Net profit is forecasted to decrease from 31.853 billion yuan in 2024 to 28.723 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 29.357 billion yuan in 2026 and 31.940 billion yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 8.21 yuan in 2024, decreasing to 7.40 yuan in 2025, then slightly increasing to 7.56 yuan in 2026 and 8.23 yuan in 2027 [2][9] - **Valuation Ratios**: - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected at 15 for 2024, increasing to 17 for 2025 and 2026, and returning to 15 in 2027 [2][9] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decrease from 3.7 in 2024 to 3.1 in 2027 [2][9] Market Performance - The report notes that Wuliangye's stock price has shown resilience compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable performance over the past 12 months [5][6]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the competitive landscape of the Gansu liquor market, highlighting the dominance of three local brands: Jinhui, Binhai, and Hongchuan, which collectively hold a significant market share against national brands [2][3][4] Market Overview - The Gansu liquor market is characterized by a "3+3" brand competition structure, with local brands Jinhui, Binhai, and Hongchuan competing against national brands like Wuliangchun and Jianan Chun, capturing 80% of the market [2][3] - The estimated market capacity for Gansu in 2024 is approximately 95-103 billion yuan, with Jinhui leading with a revenue of 30.21 billion yuan [3][4] Competitive Dynamics - Jinhui stands out with a robust performance across the province, while Binhai and Hongchuan have focused on specific regional markets [3][4] - The main sales price range in the market is concentrated between 100-300 yuan, accounting for over 50% of total sales [4] Brand Strategies - Jinhui employs a comprehensive strategy focusing on brand systematization and nationwide expansion, achieving a revenue milestone of over 30 billion yuan in 2024 [6] - Binhai Group focuses on regional markets and leverages its unique "Nine Grain Aroma" to establish a technological barrier, while also controlling pricing to ensure distributor profits [7][8] - Hongchuan targets the government and business group purchasing channels, emphasizing quality and cultural integration to strengthen its market position [9][10] Lessons Learned - The experiences of the three leading brands provide valuable insights for regional liquor companies, emphasizing the importance of brand culture, market focus, and channel management [11][12] - Companies should adapt their strategies based on their market size and development stage, with a focus on building strong local market presence and product differentiation [12][14] Pricing and Market Positioning - Regional brands are advised to concentrate on the 50-200 yuan price range to avoid direct competition with high-end national brands, while also catering to local consumer preferences [17][18] - The article suggests that a multi-channel approach, integrating group purchases, traditional channels, and e-commerce, can enhance market competitiveness [19] Digital Transformation - Implementing a digital framework that combines product information and anti-counterfeiting measures can improve brand trust and operational efficiency [20] - The introduction of a dual incentive system for stores has proven effective in maintaining sales despite market challenges [20][21]

Core Insights - The traditional retail market for liquor is declining, leading to a shift towards trendy supermarkets like Sam's Club, Hema, and Pang Donglai as new battlegrounds for liquor brands [1][22][44] - High-end liquor brands are increasingly collaborating with trendy supermarkets to create exclusive products and drive sales [3][30][45] Group 1: Market Trends - Hema's collaboration with Guangli has led to their multi-grain light bottle liquor consistently topping sales charts, while Yonghui Supermarket's sales of its small-batch liquor reached 30,000 boxes in a single month [2][4] - Major liquor brands are launching special products in partnership with trendy supermarkets to attract consumers, such as the Sichuan Liquor Group's new offerings priced at 99 yuan, 29.9 yuan, and 27.9 yuan [4][29] - The trend of high-end liquor appearing in tasting events at supermarkets is a marketing strategy rather than a sign of market downscaling [9][11][14] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The introduction of tasting events for high-end liquors at Sam's Club has attracted consumer interest, although many are deterred by transportation issues [10][11] - The popularity of certain products, like the 200 yuan bottle of Jiugui Liquor at Pang Donglai, has led to significant demand, with reports of scalpers reselling it at a premium [5][27] - Data shows that Sam's Club has over 80 SKUs of liquor, with top-selling items priced between 114.9 yuan and 999.9 yuan, indicating a strong consumer interest in both high-end and value products [16][17] Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - The price of high-end liquors, such as Moutai, has seen a significant decline, with the price dropping from nearly 2,700 yuan in January 2024 to under 2,000 yuan by August 2024 [33][37] - The market is experiencing a polarization in consumer preferences, with products priced under 300 yuan seeing the fastest sales growth [35][36] - The overall pricing structure in the liquor industry is complex, with many brands facing challenges in maintaining their price points amid changing consumer behavior [34][38] Group 4: Strategic Shifts - Liquor companies are focusing on increasing the "opening rate" of their products, encouraging consumers to actually consume rather than just purchase [39][40] - The industry is shifting from a reliance on traditional retail channels to innovative partnerships with trendy supermarkets, which are becoming crucial for brand visibility and sales [44][45] - Companies are recognizing the need to adapt to changing consumer demographics, particularly targeting younger consumers to foster brand loyalty and consumption habits [43][44]

Core Insights - The Chinese liquor market is undergoing a quiet transformation, particularly in the mid-to-low-end segment, driven by changing consumer habits and the blurring of traditional consumption scenarios [3] - The industry is in a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, a shift in consumption structure, and intense competition, leading to a notable trend of "declining volume but increasing profits" [4] Industry Trends - In 2024, the total production of large-scale liquor enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue and total profit continue to rise [4] - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see a more severe challenge, with liquor production down by 7.2% year-on-year, potentially marking the eighth consecutive year of production decline [4] - The revised policy in May 2025, which expands the ban on alcohol to all alcoholic beverages, further exacerbates the decline in traditional government consumption scenarios [4] Consumer Behavior - There is a clear trend towards younger and more rational consumer groups, with the philosophy of "drink less, drink better" gaining traction, leading to a shift towards smaller dining scenarios like casual gatherings and solo dining [6] - In the Chengdu market, the price segment of 100-300 yuan has a market size exceeding 5 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of liquor sales [6] New Consumption Scenarios - The rise of instant retail has revolutionized liquor consumption, with a reported over 100% year-on-year growth in instant retail transactions for liquor, and mid-to-high-end products priced above 500 yuan now accounting for 35% of sales [7] - Outdoor and family scenarios are emerging as new opportunities for mid-to-low-end liquor, with significant growth in consumer access to liquor during outdoor activities [9] - Family gatherings are benefiting from instant retail, allowing for spontaneous purchases of liquor, especially during holidays, with a reported 24% year-on-year growth in liquor sales on platforms like JD.com [10] Product Innovation - The diversification of consumer tastes is prompting liquor companies to innovate, with a focus on lower alcohol content and healthier options, facilitating entry into pure drinking scenarios [11] - The introduction of small bottle liquor options is catering to the "small quantity, multiple times" consumption demand, with over twenty new products launched in the first half of 2025 [11] Market Outlook - The mid-to-low-end liquor market is positioned to capture growth opportunities amid the crisis and market iteration, as the industry transitions from "scale expansion" to "value cultivation" [13] - Companies are encouraged to actively explore new consumption scenarios, innovate products, and leverage emerging channels like instant retail to enhance market penetration and attract younger consumers [13]