本文来自微信公众号： 秦朔朋友圈 （ID：qspyq2015） ，作者：何菲，题图来自：AI生成 明显感觉到，我生活的时代，我生活的城市和这座城市的人，到处都在转型。 大约在千禧初年到2017、2018年左右，我们友人之间小酌多数是喝红酒，不管真懂还是假懂，总得 在饮上一口后，用风雅感性的词汇评价一番。为此我还浮光掠影地研究过几年红酒，写过不少相关文 章。 后来，红酒热潮渐渐退去，进入平台期，身边友人们小酌的风格偏好渐渐往白酒方向转化。 前几年某次友人小聚，我坐在中医药大学少壮派教授身边，他执意鼓励我喝点白酒，说是补气、抗病 毒。从此我小酌时的主流佐餐酒换成了白酒。记得那天还有友人往白酒壶里加了半壶蒜瓣，说是能杀 灭病毒。坊间也有"加了蒜片的光瓶玻汾，能喝出青花汾的味道来"的传说。 杯里乾坤大，壶中日月长。 世界六大蒸馏酒的诞生地都分布在北纬25～40度之间，中国的两大名酒带——川贵名酒带和江淮名 酒带，都处于这个地理位置。 有很多年，白酒一直延续高端化的宏大叙事，有"向天再借五百年"的气势，代言人都是影视剧里常常 出现的帝王将相，再低调也是千里江山、雄厚激荡的调性，白酒似乎是传统文化的集大成者。 那些年，飞 ...

2025 年 06 月 16 日 1、《食品饮料行业动态研究报告： 新消费景气度上行，供需两端看布 局机会》2025-06-10 2、《食品饮料行业周报：白酒底部 布局，关注传统消费新饮品》2025- 06-09 3、《食品饮料行业周报：白酒需求 磨底，新消费延续高景气》2025- 06-02 白酒板块情绪承压，持续关注新消费 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：张倩 | S1050124070037 | | zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料(申万) -7.7 -10.4 -5.9 沪深 300 -0.4 -3.3 9.4 市场表现 0 10 20 30 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -30 相关研究 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）6 月上旬白酒环比价格总指数微跌；2）5 月酒 类价格同比下降 2%；3）七部门发文推动食品工业数字化转 型； 公司新闻：1）五粮液：将加快年轻化 ...

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 100元以下价格带 ， 基本上老玻汾和二锅头的天下 ， 二锅头胜出是杂牌军打不过大厂嫡系 ， 老玻汾胜出是清香老大降维打击 。 酱酒酿造成本就超过100元了 ， 杀头的生意有人做 ， 赔钱 的买卖没人干 ， 但是有人干了说明酒本身有问题 。 浓香以前在这里都是食用酒精酒 ， 打不过 人家纯粮酿造 。 随着一线浓香大厂固态新产能上市了 ， 看看有无机会突破吧 。 100元—200元价格带 ， 目前是海之蓝一支独大 。 五泸古在这里没有强势大单品竞争 ， 其他 酒厂的产品又没有洋河的好喝 。 海之蓝这些年不被洋河重视 ， 加上市场上假酒太多 ， 影响了 他的声誉 。 其实产品本身还是不错的 ， 要相信老百姓的选择 ， 年销售过亿瓶的大单品 ， 岂 是不好喝能做到的 。 200-300元价格带 ， 浓香基本是五粮春的天下 ， 一线大厂嫡系 ， 老窖这里没有强势大单品竞 争 。 其他浓香好喝的大单品基本都在400元价格带 ， 一般好喝的在这个价格带性价比又不高 ， 毕竟参照物是五粮春 。 400元价格带是中端和低端的分界线 ， 也是 ...

2025 年 05 月 07 日 Q1 略超预期，期待渠道改革成效 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 129.49 | | 总市值（亿元） | 5026 | | 总股本（百万股） | 3882 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 3881 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 107.69-164.05 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 2933.66 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 五粮液 沪深300 相关研究 1、《五粮液（000858）：营销执行 提升年，稳定压倒一切》2024-12- 19 2、《五粮液（000858）：浓香龙头 迎复兴，酒业大王向前看》2024- 12-06 3、《五粮液（000858）：发布中期 利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance slightly exceeded expectations, with strong sales collection [5] - The company is focusing on channel reform to enhance its market position [1][5] - The main brand is developing multiple product lines while creating flagship products in other liquor categories [6] - The company is expected to maintain its pricing strategy and restore channel confidence, leading to a recovery in brand value [8] Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 891.75 billion and 318.53 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 7% and 5% [5] - Q1 2025 revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 369.40 billion and 148.60 billion yuan, both showing a year-on-year increase of 6% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 77%, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the net margin was 37%, showing a slight decline [5] - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2970% [5] Product Development - In 2024, liquor revenue reached 831.27 billion yuan, with the main product line contributing 678.75 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.07% increase [6] - The company launched new products in the 45-degree and 68-degree categories, expanding its product matrix [6] - The average price of the main products increased slightly, contributing to overall revenue growth [6] Regional Performance - Revenue from the Eastern, Southern, and Northern regions in 2024 was 312.90 billion, 393.36 billion, and 125.01 billion yuan, respectively, with the Eastern and Southern regions showing stable growth [7] - The number of distributors for the main brand and its sub-brands increased significantly, indicating a successful expansion strategy [7] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have EPS of 8.67, 9.26, and 10.00 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 13 times [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Wuliangye's 2024 annual report shows a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44%, indicating a slowdown in growth rates for both revenue and profit, marking the first time since 2015 and 2016 respectively that these figures have shown single-digit growth [1][4][10]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, up 5.80%, reflecting a trend of single-digit growth in quarterly reports for the first time in nearly a decade [3][4]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, Wuliangye's net profit reached 24.931 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.19%, but the fourth quarter saw a decline in net profit by 6.17% to 6.922 billion yuan despite revenue growth [2][4]. Industry Context - The white liquor industry is currently undergoing a deep adjustment period characterized by increased volatility and intensified competition, which has impacted Wuliangye's performance [2][10]. - The overall production of major white liquor companies in 2024 is projected to decline by 1.8%, while sales revenue is expected to grow by 5.3%, indicating challenges within the industry [10]. Sales and Marketing Strategy - Wuliangye has increased its sales expenses significantly, with total sales expenses exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 10.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.2% [18][20]. - The company has focused on enhancing market investment to boost dealer confidence, with promotional expenses alone rising to 6.76 billion yuan, up 48.9% [18][20]. Product Mix and Market Position - Wuliangye's high-end products accounted for 76% of its revenue in 2024, totaling 67.875 billion yuan, while lower-tier products generated only 15.251 billion yuan, highlighting a lack of mid-tier product support [12][10]. - The company plans to stabilize market prices and ensure channel profitability by adjusting its production strategy in response to market demand changes [10][12]. Future Outlook - Wuliangye's 2025 goals include consolidating and enhancing stable development, promoting brand value, and aligning revenue growth with macroeconomic indicators, reflecting a more conservative outlook compared to previous years [12][24].

4月25日晚间，五粮液发布了2024年年报。数据显示，2024年，五粮液实现营业收入891.75亿元，同比 增长7.09%；归母净利润318.53亿元，同比增长5.44%；经营活动产生的现金流量净额339.4亿元，下降 了18.69%。 值得注意的是，五粮液2024年的营收增速、净利润增速和扣非后归母净利润增速，均跌到了个位数。 五粮液称，在五粮液产品方面，公司去年紧扣"抓动销、稳价格、提费效、转作风"方针，持续提升五粮 液品牌市场地位。在五粮浓香产品方面，2024年，五粮浓香公司坚持"三性一度""三个聚焦"原则，打造 五粮春、五粮醇、五粮特头曲、尖庄大单品，稳步推进各项工作。 在品牌营销方面，2024年，五粮液深度参与央视春晚秋晚、巴黎奥运会等重大活动，联合打造和美之夜 特别晚会；与湖南卫视合作《中餐厅》《歌手》等高热度节目；持续占位博鳌亚洲论坛、APEC等高端 平台活动。 在发布年报的同日，五粮液还发布了2025年第一季度财报：实现营收369.4亿元，同比增长6.05%；归母 净利润为148.6亿元，同比增长5.8%。 五粮液称，2025年主要发展目标是，巩固和增强稳健发展态势，推动品牌价值和市场份额双提 ...

每日晨报 智: H J 2025年4月28日 中国一季度规模以上工业企业利润由降转增, 同比增长 0.8% www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:加紧加快,加大加力--4 月政治局会议解读。4 月政治局会议在一季 度经济开门红和"外部冲击影响加大"的背景下召开,我们认为会议给出以下 三大重要信号:第一,对于经济形势有准确判断,将美国大肆加征关税等一系 列行为定义成"国际经贸斗争",要做好中长期战略筹划,保持国内储备政策 的弹性,"攻守兼备"不轻易亮出全部底牌;第二,强化底线思维,着力稳就 业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，其中稳就业为四稳之首,超常规逆周期政策的 出台和实施将以就业目标为主要出发点;第三,加紧加快既定政策的落实落地, 如加快政府债券发行使用,为下半年政策加码腾出空间;加大加力重点领域的 政策实施力度,重点是科技、消费和外贸三个方向,并据形势变化及时推出增 量储备政策。 宏观:利润转正可持续吗?——2025年1-3 月工业企业利润分析。展望未来, ● 一季度工业企业利润全面回升取得良好开门红,强有力的政策效果为全年经济 ...

Core Insights - Wuliangye reported a revenue of 89.175 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% year-on-year, marking ten consecutive years of steady growth in revenue and net profit [1] - The company achieved a record high gross margin of over 77% in 2024, reflecting its resilience in a challenging industry environment [5] - Wuliangye's marketing strategy for 2025 focuses on enhancing brand value and market share, with significant restructuring of its marketing system and channel innovations [9] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Wuliangye achieved a revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, a 6.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, up 5.8% year-on-year [2] - For 2024, the main brand generated revenue of 67.875 billion yuan, an 8.07% increase, while the Wuliang fragrant series and other products contributed 15.251 billion yuan, up 11.79% [3] - The direct sales channel saw a revenue increase of 12.89%, reaching 34.389 billion yuan, with its share of total revenue exceeding 41% [3] Channel Development - Wuliangye expanded its distribution network significantly, adding 16,000 core terminals and enhancing its direct sales channel with new stores and upgraded outlets [4] - The company’s revenue from traditional channels grew by nearly 6%, with the eastern and southern regions being the main contributors [3] Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye emphasized a balanced approach to volume and price, launching new products and enhancing its product matrix to maintain its leading position in the premium price segment [6] - The company’s marketing activities included participation in major events and collaborations with popular media, significantly increasing brand exposure [7] Management and Governance - Wuliangye's management team is undergoing a youth-oriented transformation, with new appointments aimed at enhancing cohesion and operational effectiveness [8] - The company plans to implement a deep transformation of its sales system to improve decision-making efficiency and market responsiveness [9] Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye announced a record dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio increasing to 70%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [11] - The company’s major shareholder plans to increase its stake by investing an additional 500 million to 1 billion yuan, signaling confidence in Wuliangye's investment value [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, but leading companies like Wuliangye continue to show robust performance with record revenue and net profit growth, marking ten consecutive years of such growth [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Wuliangye achieved operating revenue of 89.175 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, and a net profit of 31.853 billion yuan, up 5.44% [4]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 36.94 billion yuan, growing by 6.05%, and a net profit of 14.86 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8% [4]. - Wuliangye's revenue and net profit have consistently grown for ten years, outperforming the industry average during a period of declining production in the sector [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Wuliangye is focusing on a strategic approach of "grasping sales, stabilizing prices, improving efficiency, and changing work styles" to adapt to industry changes [3][8]. - The company has introduced innovative products, including new high-end offerings, to enhance its product structure and cater to emerging consumer segments [6][11]. Brand and Marketing - In 2024, Wuliangye's brand exposure exceeded 20 billion views through participation in major events like the CCTV Spring Festival Gala [7]. - The company is optimizing its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors by 82 to a total of 2,652, and expanding its direct sales channels significantly [7][10]. Shareholder Returns - Wuliangye has implemented a "dividend + buyback" strategy, announcing a total dividend of 22.3 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 70%, marking a significant increase from previous years [12][13]. - The company has a history of substantial cash dividends, totaling over 104.1 billion yuan since its IPO, which is 28 times its initial fundraising amount [12][13].