前言 最近刷财经新闻的朋友，估计都被黄金"秀"到了！ 一路蹭蹭往上涨，还屡次刷新历史高点，关键它不是那种几天就凉的短线暴涨，而是稳稳站在高位。 有人纳闷，这金疙瘩咋突然就成了香饽饽？ 其实真不是突然，是好几条硬逻辑凑一块，再加上最新的市场动态，才把金价抬到现在这位置。 咱们今天就看看这波黄金上涨到底靠啥，普通人该咋看。 利率+央行，双撑金价 说句实在话，过去两年黄金根本没这待遇。 那时候美国一个劲儿加息，真实利率飙得老高，大家拿着国债、货币基金就能躺赚无风险收益，谁还会 瞧得上不生息的黄金？ 但现在风向彻底变了。 截至2025年5月，美联储点阵图明明白白显示，市场普遍预期今年会有2-3次降息。 这意味着啥？真实利率要往下走，持有黄金的"机会成本"直接降低。 以前放着钱能赚利息，现在利息少了，黄金的吸引力自然就上来了。 更关键的是，还有央行在背后"托底"。 | 排名 | 30 53 | 2025年黄金储备面 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 美 国 国 | 8133.5 吨 | | 2 | 德 ■■ | 3351.5 吨 | | 3 | 意大利 | 2451.8 吨 | | 4 | 国 [ ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices opening high but closing lower, while the Shanghai Composite Index remained above 4000 points [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was below 2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.03%, the ChiNext Index by 1.4%, and the CSI 500 Index by 0.84% [1] Future Outlook - Liquidity for equity assets is expected to remain ample both domestically and internationally, with ongoing investment and industrial opportunities driven by AI [1] - The market is likely to experience normal fluctuations or adjustments following a phase of upward movement, suggesting that investors should consider positioning in high-growth or policy-supported sectors during pullbacks [1] Gold Market Insights - After a recent rapid adjustment, gold prices have stabilized and are expected to rise in the medium to long term due to factors such as (a) unsustainable high debt models in major global economies, (b) strategic allocations by central banks and long-term investors, (c) declining real interest rates, and (d) increasing global risk events [1] - UBS has projected that gold prices may reach a historical high of $5000 per ounce at some point next year or the year after [1] - It is suggested that gold should be viewed as a fundamental currency, with investors advised to hold a portion of it, indicating that the recent pullback may present a good opportunity to invest in the gold sector [1] Renewable Energy Sector Developments - The renewable energy sector has received positive news, with the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration releasing guidelines to promote the integration of renewable energy with industry and optimize the operation of energy and computing facilities [2] - The lithium battery sector is benefiting from the ongoing expansion of energy storage and new energy vehicles, with the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reporting that in October, new energy vehicle sales exceeded 50% of total new car sales for the first time [2] - In the photovoltaic sector, efforts to reduce internal competition are ongoing, with expected implementation of silicon material mergers and acquisitions, as well as production limits and sales policies [2]

本文来自微信公众号：肖小跑，作者：肖小跑，题图来自：AI生成 10月11日成了新的币圈暴跌纪念日（一共有几个记不清了），懂王又发威，加密市场秒崩，比特币跌破11万美元，山寨币成片跳水，直接归零。 经历过前几个纪念日的OG们，应该心里门儿清：关税只是火星，真正的炸药是高杠杆。过去几个月币价屡创新高，但很多钱是合约、借贷、流动性挖出 来的杠杆钱，一有利空，高杠杆先被打爆，后面就是抛压滚雪球。熟悉的配方。 那么问题来了：黄金的杠杆也不低，（撇去 defi 不谈） 正规军在 COMEX 交易 crypto 需要 10% 保证金，黄金 CFD只要 2%。但黄金目前为止没有大崩， 大概侧面证明了这波主要是拿实物金的散户和央行？ 那这意味着黄金可以躲过一劫，从4000直奔5000吗？倒也不一定，我有另外一个暴论：叙事逐渐离谱。 大家现在对金价已经兴奋了很久了，以至于现在看到越来越多的一个行为艺术——社交媒体、甚至正式研报中开始出现"用黄金折算某资产或物价"的图 表。 比如，黄金买房： 再比如，黄金买油： 还有，黄金买股： 这件事我以前也喜欢干，主要想说明某国货币超发有多严重。但这些图很好，下次别画了。 除了视觉惊悚效果之外 ...