以下文章来源于Counterpoint 咨询 ，作者Counterpoint Counterpoint 咨询 . Counterpoint Research 是一家专注于科技行业的全球性研究公司，在全球主要的市场有着强大的影响 力。我们致力于为合作伙伴提供准确、及时的市场数据，帮助他们做出明智的决策。 努比亚 M153 由字节跳动与中兴联合开发，是字节跳动推出的首款原生 AI 智能手机。该机型于 2025 年 12 月 1 日以"技术预览版"形式在中兴官方商城发布，仅面向需要体验豆包手机助手的行业 人士，并提示功能完善度未达成熟产品水平。首批约 3 万台设备迅速售罄，二级市场出现溢价交 易，彰显出市场对该产品的高度关注。目前，该机型仅提供白色 16GB + 512GB 版本，售价为 3,499 元人民币（约合 495 美元）。 根据 Counterpoint 的《AI 360》报告 ，2025 年全球智能手机出货量中支持 GenAI 的占比将超过 30%，高于 2024 年的 20%，预计到 2029 年这一比例将提升至 57%。GenAI 正逐步成为高端机型的 标配，并有望加速向中端市场渗透。AI 的快速普 ...

12月20日，很多人看到 "鸿蒙星光盛典"的舞台时，心中想必感慨万千。 6年前，我们很难想到，鸿蒙5和鸿蒙6的终端设备能够超过 3200万台，并且还在以每天超15万台的 速度不断新增。 2019年，华为一度登顶全球最大手机厂商，当时仍循常规使用安卓操作系统。同年5月中旬，在一纸 禁令的影响下，华为并未妥协退让，旋即拿出了自主研发的操作系统"鸿蒙"。只是当初，几乎无人相 信这个尚显稚嫩的系统真能挽救华为于危局。 时至今日，鸿蒙已与安卓、iOS形成鼎足之势，为全球用户提供了新的选择。但这并非一路开挂的逆 袭爽文，华为与鸿蒙也并无"主角光环"加持。许多人将鸿蒙的成功归因于华为深厚的技术积淀，却往 往忽视了这一路走来的雨雪风霜。 即便开发者一心想支持鸿蒙，但只要鸿蒙继续兼容安卓，他们便缺乏足够的动力去开发独立的鸿蒙应 用——既然用户仍可运行安卓版本，又何必额外投入成本去开发一个鸿蒙原生版本？ 因此，华为内部在技术路线的关键抉择上，曾围绕"延续兼容安卓的双框架"与"转向全自研单框架"展 开过极为激烈的讨论，最终"全自研单框架"路线成为共识。 一道难解的题 外界对鸿蒙的观望，根源在于操作系统的真正壁垒远非技术本身，而在于 ...

作者 | 黄昱 编辑 | 王小娟 在AI手机战火打响近两年后，各大手机厂商并未推出真正能重塑人机交互方式的手机。 最近，作为互联网巨头的字节，通过"豆包手机"入局，让更多人直观看到了AI Agent操作手机的能力，很快大模型"六小虎"之一的智谱开源了 AutoGLM项目，并打出了"让每一台手机都能成为AI手机"的旗号。 AI手机战火升级，要想守住端侧AI这一超级入口，手机厂商们必须尽快拿出更有竞争力的产品，来抢夺用户的AI手机心智。 华尔街见闻获悉，最近，OPPO对AI中心完成新一轮组织架构调整，原小布记忆、小布助手、小布建议等核心业务将整合为"超级小布"，由新成立 的智慧产品研发部统一负责。OPPO ColorOS 智慧产品研发总监姜昱辰负责"超级小布"的打造。 有OPPO内部人士告诉华尔街见闻，此番调整旨在整合资源以强化AI系统级体验。 OPPO如今对系统级AI能力的重视毋庸置疑。 去年初，OPPO CEO陈明永曾发布内部信称，AI手机将成为继功能机、智能手机之后的第三阶段。通过AI，可以把手机的体验重新做一遍，OPPO 已做好充分准备，并专门成立了AI中心，将资源向AI集中。 在此背景下，这两年来，OP ...

Core Insights - The launch of Doubao AI phone has generated significant market interest, with resale prices on platforms like Xianyu reaching up to 8000 yuan, indicating a high demand similar to the iPhone 4 launch [1] - The Doubao AI phone features a high-permission agent that enables system-level AI capabilities, allowing users to perform complex tasks with simple commands [1] - The emergence of AI phones raises concerns about the future of traditional internet giants and apps, as predicted by Elon Musk, suggesting a potential shift in the mobile ecosystem [2] Group 1 - The Doubao AI phone's popularity validates the trend of integrating AI interactions in mobile devices, confirming the investments made by major manufacturers like Honor, Vivo, and OPPO in AI technology [4] - The rapid rise of the Doubao AI assistant serves as a significant turning point in the AI phone market, comparable to Mark Zuckerberg's appearance at the Oculus launch in 2016 [4] - Tencent's proactive measures against AI automation in apps like WeChat highlight the challenges AI phones face in gaining widespread acceptance [3][10] Group 2 - The current landscape of AI phones is divided into two factions: the radical revolutionaries, represented by Doubao, and the conservative preservationists, who advocate for a more gradual approach [8][12] - The fundamental logic of the mobile internet ecosystem is being challenged by system-level AI, which could disrupt traditional advertising and user engagement models [9][11] - The swift prohibition of AI operations by WeChat reflects the potential impact on daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU), which are crucial for advertising revenue [10] Group 3 - The Doubao AI phone's hardware capabilities are questioned, as ByteDance excels in software but lacks the hardware prowess of established players like Xiaomi and Honor [6][7] - The development of system-level AI requires a collaborative approach between software and hardware, which may be more effectively executed by traditional phone manufacturers [12][18] - The success of AI phones hinges not only on technology but also on the ability to create a supportive ecosystem that includes cooperation with major app developers [22][24] Group 4 - The AI phone market's growth could benefit existing manufacturers, as seen with the rise in stock prices for companies like ZTE following the Doubao AI phone's announcement [23] - Honor's strategic focus on AI integration and ecosystem development illustrates the competitive landscape among phone manufacturers in the AI space [22] - The challenges faced by Doubao AI phone in establishing a viable ecosystem echo historical precedents in the tech industry, where similar initiatives have struggled to gain traction [28]

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's Mate 80 series, featuring significant performance enhancements and innovative technologies, aims to strengthen its position in the competitive smartphone market [2][4][16]. Group 1: Performance Enhancements - The Mate 80 series introduces the new Kirin 9020 and Kirin 9030 chips, with overall performance improvements exceeding 35% compared to the previous generation [4]. - The Mate 80 Pro Max achieves a performance increase of over 42% due to advanced thermal management and larger heat dissipation components [4]. - The series supports 3DGS rendering acceleration, improving performance by 33% compared to the Mate 70 series, and features ray tracing hardware acceleration capable of rendering 20 million rays per second [5]. Group 2: Design and Durability - The Mate 80 series maintains the recognizable design of the Mate family, with a classic "star ring" camera module and a dual-ring design in a full metal body [6][7]. - The devices feature upgraded Kunlun glass, enhancing drop resistance by 20 times, bending resistance by 20%, and scratch resistance by 2 times [7]. - The series is rated IP68 for dust and water resistance, with the ability to withstand high-temperature and high-pressure water jets [8]. Group 3: Imaging Technology - The Mate 80 series incorporates the second-generation Red Maple imaging technology, improving color accuracy by 43% and light intake by 96% [12]. - The series allows for multiple shooting effects from a single capture, enhancing user experience in various lighting conditions [12]. - The Pro Max model features a high dynamic range main camera with 17.5EV and a dual telephoto configuration, totaling five cameras [14]. Group 4: Software and AI Integration - The Mate 80 series launches with HarmonyOS 6, enhancing system fluidity and app compatibility, along with immersive lighting effects [16]. - The new AI capabilities include features like "reorder" and "photo guide," improving user interaction and experience [17]. Group 5: Communication Capabilities - The Mate 80 series introduces industry-first 700MHz emergency communication capabilities, enabling connectivity in disaster scenarios over distances exceeding 13 kilometers [19]. - The devices support WiFi 7+, satellite communication, and other advanced connectivity options, enhancing overall communication reliability [19]. Group 6: Pricing and Availability - The standard version of the Mate 80 series is priced slightly lower than its predecessor, indicating a strategic pricing approach [22]. - Pre-orders for the Mate 80 series have begun, with high demand leading to extended shipping times [25].

Core Insights - The emergence of generative AI has led to a global consensus on its technological direction, with various industries, including IT, manufacturing, and finance, seeking to leverage AI for innovation [1] - The release of HarmonyOS 6 marks a significant advancement in human-computer interaction, enhancing system-level AI capabilities and establishing a collaborative ecosystem for third-party applications [3][4] Group 1: AI Interaction and User Experience - HarmonyOS 6 simplifies AI interaction, allowing users to issue commands across various devices seamlessly through a unified AI service, Xiaoyi [4][5] - The new Harmony Agent Framework enables efficient communication and integration among third-party AI agents, enhancing user experience [5][7] - Users can now perform complex tasks, such as medical inquiries, with simple voice commands, showcasing the system's advanced AI capabilities [4][8] Group 2: Ecosystem and Application Development - HarmonyOS 6 has integrated over 80 third-party AI applications across diverse sectors, including healthcare, entertainment, and shopping, enhancing user convenience [7][16] - Major applications from Tencent and other developers have been fully adapted to HarmonyOS, introducing innovative features and improving user experience [16][19] - The "one-touch" feature allows for seamless content sharing and collaboration across devices, further enhancing the ecosystem's functionality [17] Group 3: System Upgrades and AI Capabilities - The upgrade includes significant enhancements to built-in applications, such as advanced photo editing features powered by AI [8][9] - HarmonyOS 6 introduces intelligent document management and note-taking capabilities, streamlining user workflows [11][13] - Xiaoyi's capabilities are set to expand, including support for multiple dialects and advanced research assistance features [11][13] Group 4: Market Growth and Future Prospects - HarmonyOS has rapidly gained market traction, with over 23 million devices deployed, making it the fastest-growing operating system in smart terminal history [19] - The transition from "usable" to "user-friendly" is a key focus for HarmonyOS 6, aiming for innovative breakthroughs in user experience [14][19] - The future development of HarmonyOS will rely on collaboration with third-party developers to enhance its AI capabilities and user engagement [19][20]

Group 1: Core Insights - Apple has committed to an additional $100 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing, which is seen as a strategy to mitigate potential punitive tariffs on hardware products [1] - The valuation of Apple’s supply chain companies is currently low, and there is optimism for a recovery in sentiment as negative factors dissipate [1] - The expected hardware innovation cycle from 2025 to 2027 is anticipated to drive growth, particularly for companies with strong Apple business contributions and those positioned in AI, foldable screens, and robotics [1] Group 2: Valuation Recovery of Supply Chain - Since April 2025, the stock prices of Apple’s supply chain companies have recovered to pre-tariff levels, but overall gains in Q2 lagged behind, indicating that valuations remain attractive [2] - The average valuation for these companies corresponds to approximately 18 times PE for 2026, with most companies valued below 20 times PE [2] - Potential catalysts for valuation recovery include the conclusion of the 232 tariff investigation, stronger-than-expected demand for the iPhone 17, advancements in Apple Intelligence, and changes in the iPhone NPI models in 2026 [2] Group 3: Capacity Transfer - Apple has committed a total of $600 billion to U.S. manufacturing, with a focus on highly automated chips and components, as well as potential AI server production domestically [3] - Currently, about 80% of iPhone production is in mainland China, with 20% in India, while other products like AirPods and iPads have a domestic production ratio of 40-60% [3] - The strategy of diversifying production locations to mitigate tariff risks is expected to continue, with a positive outlook for core supply chain companies expanding overseas [3] Group 4: Outlook on New Products - In 2025, Apple is expected to continue hardware upgrades to support AI functionalities, including the introduction of the iPhone 17 Air and new design features in the Pro series [4] - For 2026, key hardware innovations include the first foldable iPhone, new AirPods with optical features, and advancements in the Apple Vision Pro product line [4] - By 2027, significant upgrades are anticipated for Apple's 20th anniversary products, including advancements in glasses, foldable screens, and notable enhancements in the iPhone lineup [4]

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the smartphone market is intensifying, particularly in the high-end segment, with major brands like OPPO launching innovative products and features to capture market share [1][6]. Group 1: OPPO's New Product Launch - OPPO has launched the new Find X8 series, which includes the Find X8 Ultra, Find X8s, and the upgraded Find X8s+ [1]. - The Find X8 Ultra features advanced imaging systems, including the Night God Five photography system and LUMO light imaging, positioning it as a top choice for night photography and live event shooting [1]. - OPPO is also introducing a small-screen phone and a new AI feature called "one-click flash memory" to enhance user experience [1][2]. Group 2: AI Integration and Market Trends - The new ColorOS 15 operating system introduces system-level AI capabilities, including a physical button for quick activation of the AI flash memory function [1][2]. - The AI flash memory feature allows users to quickly capture and organize information from various apps, addressing the challenge of managing information across different platforms [2]. - The smartphone industry is expected to see a new wave of innovation driven by AI, with 2024 being recognized as the "AI smartphone year" [2][3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The high-end smartphone market is crucial for manufacturers' long-term success, with a significant increase in market share for smartphones priced at $600 and above, rising from 11% in 2018 to 28% in 2024 [7]. - Other Chinese brands are also increasing their presence in the high-end market, with their overall market share growing from 5% in 2020 to 15% in 2024 [7]. - In 2023, vivo led the market with a 17.2% share, followed closely by Huawei at 16.6%, while Apple, Honor, and OPPO ranked third, fourth, and fifth, respectively, with minimal market share differences [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that domestic brands will continue to invest heavily in the high-end market, with expected sales growth [9]. - The $600 to $800 market segment is anticipated to expand further due to government subsidies and advancements in AI and foldable screen technologies, becoming a new focal point for competition [10]. - The outcome of the ongoing competition in 2025 remains uncertain, with various factors influencing potential winners [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the necessity of adding a dedicated "AI" button on smartphones to enhance user interaction with AI features, highlighting the current confusion and inconsistency in accessing AI functionalities across different devices [3][10][38]. Group 1: User Interaction with AI - Current user interaction with smartphones does not effectively accommodate AI functionalities, leading to confusion about how to access these features [2][9]. - Many AI features are hidden or not easily discoverable, which can frustrate users who are not tech-savvy [7][9]. Group 2: AI Button Concept - The idea of a dedicated AI button is proposed as a solution to streamline access to AI functionalities, providing a more intuitive user experience [11][21]. - The concept of an AI button is not new, as seen in other devices like Windows laptops and Chromebooks, which have integrated similar features [14][18]. Group 3: Examples of AI Integration - Various devices have implemented AI buttons with differing levels of effectiveness, such as Nothing Phone 3a's "Essential Space" feature, which allows users to capture and summarize information [25][28]. - The AI keyboard mentioned in the article offers direct access to multiple AI functions, significantly improving workflow efficiency [32][41]. Group 4: Future of AI Interaction - The article suggests that while a dedicated AI button may serve as a transitional solution, the ultimate goal should be to integrate AI deeply into the system for a seamless user experience [43][50]. - The evolution of AI interaction will likely lead to the disappearance of physical buttons as AI becomes more embedded in devices, providing assistance proactively rather than requiring user initiation [44][50].