1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.6.30-7.4 影响因素总结 上周玻璃期货先扬后抑，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周上涨0.69%报1026元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1080元/吨，较前一周上涨2.27%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格止跌，行业利润惨淡，天然气产线亏损加剧，行业冷修量 高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产224条，开工率75.00%，日熔量15.68万吨，供给处 于历史低位。需求方面，近日受光伏玻璃限产情绪带动盘面大涨下部分期现商陆续进场， 局部企业出货较高下，发函提涨，但本月正值玻璃需求淡季叠加梅雨季，多数企业出货 一般，企业库存仍处于同期高位。截止7月3日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6908.50万重量 箱，较前一周减少0.19%，库存在 ...

国内玻璃现货价格平稳，近日来部分区域成交量有所回升，沙河地区部分企业产销率阶段性突破至 200%以上，华东、华中、华南等地区也接近供需平衡，生产企业库存或存缓慢下降。 综合来看，虽玻璃现货价格已跌破市场绝大多数企业生产线成本，但玻璃需求也在同步下行，故总体供 需格局仍偏宽松，若盘面进行贴水修复，则部分低成本企业在现货经营压力增加的背景下或再度考虑套 保。因此，在价格大幅低于生产成本时，期货盘面虽然存在一定的反弹需求，但从当下时点来看，若无 外力干预刺激，则反弹的持续驱动力偏弱。(作者单位：齐盛期货） 从需求端来看，因订单无有效回暖，近期下游加工企业心态仍偏悲观，且在行业利润微薄的情况下暂无 大量囤货的想法，采购策略上保持按需低价采购，多数下游深加工企业的开工率与往年同期相比偏低。 库存结构方面，近期因玻璃现货价格连续下跌，部分现货价格已跌破企业生产成本，当前中游库存已多 数去化，因此中游存在低价备货意向，但备货行情的持续性不宜过度乐观。 从供应端来看，数据显示，当前全国浮法玻璃生产线共计285条，在产220条；日熔量共计157255吨，较 上期减少1800吨；当前行业产能利用率为80.63%，位于近五年同期偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.6.9-6.13 上周玻璃期货低位震荡，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周下跌2.11%报976元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1044元/吨，较前一周下跌1.51%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格下跌，行业利润继续恶化，天然气产线亏损加剧，行业冷 修量高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产224条，开工率75.57%，日熔量15.57万吨，供 给处于历史低位。需求方面，季节性淡季来临，地产终端需求恢复缓慢，叠加南方正处 于梅雨季，整体来看下游多数加工厂订单不能饱和，散单为主下，采购原片亦是维持刚 需。截止6月12日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6968.50万重量箱，较前一周减少0.10%。综 合来看，玻璃供需双弱，预期期价低位震荡偏弱运行 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.6.3-6.6 每周观点 上周玻璃期货低位震荡，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周上涨1.53%报997元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1060元/吨，较前一周下跌0.75%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格下跌，行业利润继续恶化，天然气产线亏损加剧，行业冷 修量高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产224条，开工率75.53%，日熔量15.68万吨，供 给处于历史低位。需求方面，季节性淡季来临，地产终端需求恢复缓慢，叠加南方正处 于梅雨季，整体来看下游多数加工厂订单不能饱和，散单为主下，采购原片亦是维持刚 需。截止6月6日，全国浮法玻璃企业库存6975.40万重量箱，较前一周增加3.09%；需求 乏力，而近期又不断有产线复产点火，企业 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.5.26-5.30 上周玻璃期货继续走弱，主力合约FG2509收盘较前一周下跌1.80%报982元/吨，跌 破1000元大关。现货方面，河北沙河白玻大板报价1068元/吨，较前一周下跌1.48%。 供给方面，玻璃现货价格下跌，行业利润继续恶化，天然气产线亏损加剧，行业冷 修量高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产225条，开工率75.73%，日熔量15.73万吨，供 给处于历史低位。需求方面，季节性淡季来临，地产终端需求恢复缓慢，叠加南方正处 于梅雨季，整体来看下游订单不足且多为散单，采购原片多为刚需。截止5月29日，全 国浮法玻璃企业库存6766.20万重量箱，较前一周减少0.16%；不排除企业为降库存继续 存让利优惠等政策。综合来 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market has a weak fundamental situation. In the short term, it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend. Although there are some positive factors such as a significant negative feedback on production profit leading to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low and progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, the negative factors are more prominent, including weak real - estate terminal demand and cautious attitudes of traders and processors. Overall, the glass is expected to be in a low - level, volatile, and slightly strong operation, but there are risks such as accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [2][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1036 yuan/ton to 1005 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.99%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass decreased from 1092 yuan/ton to 1076 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%. The main basis increased from 56 yuan/ton to 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.79% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1076 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.3 Cost - side of Fundamentals - Coal production lines have seen a recovery in profitability, the losses of natural gas production lines have narrowed, and the profits of petroleum coke production lines have turned negative [17]. 3.4 Production - side of Fundamentals - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 222, with an operating rate of 75%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 156,700 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history [21][23]. 3.5 Demand - side of Fundamentals - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 431,430 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [27][4]. 3.6 Inventory - side of Fundamentals The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 68.082 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.77% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [45]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, the production is 55.1 million tons, the apparent supply is 54.61 million tons, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons [46]. 3.8 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Significant negative feedback on production profit has led to a continuous decline in glass production to a historical low, and there has been progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection situation in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [4]. 3.9 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Under the influence of the seasonal peak - season expectation, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has carried out phased restocking, resulting in a reduction in glass factory inventory. It is expected that the glass will mainly show a low - level, volatile, and slightly strong operation [5]. - **Risk Points**: Accelerated industry复产 and less - than - expected macro and real - estate policies [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-5-6 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润低位，行业冷修减少，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；深加工订单不及 往年同期，终端需求偏弱，厂库重回累积；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1164元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1082元/吨，基差为82元，期货贴水 现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6498.90万重量箱，较前一周减少0.74%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏 空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、生产利润负反馈明显，玻璃产量持续下降至历史低位。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱， ...

谨慎对待交割的兑现 2025 年 3 月 31 日 玻璃月报 报告要点： 上个月的月报中，我们提及不妨关注盘面在低估值区间时需求来临 后的反弹机会。3 月上旬盘面持续低于湖北地区低价仓单价格，位 于偏低估区间，需求复苏后盘面出现反弹，虽然反弹力度不低，但 是持续性力度存疑。 从估值看，若盘面继续向下，将再次进入上游垒库、需求不及预 期、湖北地区低价仓单无法解决的定价。以 3 月份以后的湖北现货 低价 1100 为基准，加仓单费用后基本平水当前的盘面价格。 但是对应到 05 合约，一个即将交割的合约来看，除非接下来几周的 需求表现超预期的强，且带动湖北地区涨价，中游库存迅速去化， 解决掉 05 合约的交割问题。否则不得不面临湖北地区贴水交割的问 题。 随着时间越来越近，应慢慢以交割思维对待 05 合约。那么盘面不再 是平水，对贴水交割的湖北来说，当前盘面仍有升水。1100 的现 货，盘面 60~80 的贴水是合理的。 4 月份需求只有超预期走强才能偏强对待，否则建议要谨慎对待交 割的兑现。 风险点，宏观扰动 创元研究 创元研究黑色组 研究员：陶锐 邮箱： taor@cyqh.com.cn 投资咨询资格号：Z00 ...