2024-2025年实施的消费品"以旧换新"政策，中央财政合计安排4500亿元超长期特别国债资金支持，累计发放 直达消费者的补贴超4.8亿人次。其中2024年超1.2亿人次，2025年上半年超2.8亿人次，2025年下半年超0.8亿人 次，带动相关商品销售额超过2.6万亿元，直接拉动社会消费品零售总额增长0.6个百分点。 以上数据反映了该政策的两大显著特征，一方面，以旧换新对消费的拉动功不可没，如果没有这项政策，2025 年或难以实现5%的增长；另一方面，该政策的乘数效应似乎不及预期，且覆盖人群偏少。自2025年5月起，社 会消费品零售总额当月同比增速逐月放缓，12月仅同比增长0.9%；而且，2025年下半年以旧换新的受益人次 数量降至0.8亿。本文探讨如何提高以旧换新的边际效应及扩大受益人口覆盖率、促就业等进行探讨。 "以旧换新"政策经历了 "出台——加力——扩围"过程 2024年7月国务院印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施的通知》，明确向地方安 排1500亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，用于支持消费品以旧换新。2025年则安排3000亿元超长期特别国债资金 支持消费品以旧换新加力扩围， ...

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and sales growth, although its multiplier effect appears weaker than expected [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The State Council issued measures in July 2024, allocating approximately 150 billion yuan for local support of the "old-for-new" policy, with an additional 300 billion yuan planned for 2025, expanding the range of eligible products from 8 to 12 categories [3]. - The estimated sales driven by the "old-for-new" policy for 2024 and 2025 are projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from various product categories [4]. Group 2: Impact on Retail Sales - Retail sales growth for related product categories showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while home appliances and automotive sales growth lagged behind [6][7]. - The first year post-implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, but the second year showed only a 2% increase, indicating a diminishing effect of the policy [6]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics and Coverage - The total number of beneficiaries from the "old-for-new" policy was only 480 million, with participation rates among lower-income groups being particularly low, as the majority of beneficiaries were from higher-income brackets [11]. - The automotive sector accounted for 61.5% of the total consumption generated by the policy, highlighting the high average price of eligible products and the limited impact on lower-income consumers [11]. Group 4: Future Considerations and Adjustments - Proposed adjustments for the 2026 policy include expanding the subsidy range, lowering the average price of eligible products, and shifting focus towards job creation and income stability rather than solely on sales volume [10][12]. - The introduction of new product categories, such as smart glasses, aims to align with technological advancements and broaden consumer engagement [10].

Core Insights - Qinghai Province is set to promote its experience in the "old for new" consumer goods policy nationwide by 2025, aiming to boost consumption, stabilize growth, and improve livelihoods [1] - The province has received recognition from the Ministry of Commerce for its effective implementation of the policy, being the only province to share its experiences at a national market operation and consumption promotion conference [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - A total of 1.69 billion yuan was invested in the policy last year, benefiting over 1.52 million people and stimulating consumption of 19.7 billion yuan [1] - The policy led to the purchase of 92,000 new cars, 496,000 home appliances, 615,000 digital products, 319,000 home renovation items, and 4,000 electric bicycles [1] Group 2: Policy Framework and Mechanisms - The policy implementation framework includes a centralized department overseeing the entire process, a unified provincial platform for managing subsidy applications, and a structured mechanism for regular reporting and analysis [2] - The "three-step linkage" approach involves stabilizing expectations through temporary measures, activating market forces by engaging retail enterprises and financial institutions, and expanding effectiveness by increasing subsidies and adjusting coupon issuance frequency [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, the central government implemented a series of financial policies to support the expansion of commodity consumption and optimize service consumption supply, including the issuance of 300 billion yuan in long-term special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods [1][4] - The retail sales of consumer goods exceeded 50 trillion yuan, reaching 50,120.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The "old for new" policy expanded from 8 categories of home appliances to 12, including digital products and electric bicycles, with increased subsidy intensity [2] - In 2025, over 11.5 million vehicles were replaced under the "old for new" policy, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [2][4] - The sales of related products under the "old for new" policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [4] Group 2: Market Performance - Retail sales of limited above units grew by 3.4%, with significant increases in categories such as communication equipment (20.9%) and cultural office supplies (17.3%) [3] - The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 12.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a penetration rate of 53.9% [3][4] - Upgraded product categories saw accelerated demand, with sports and entertainment goods growing by 15.7% and jewelry and cosmetics reversing previous declines [3] Group 3: Industry Upgrades and Environmental Impact - The "old for new" policy not only boosted consumption but also promoted industrial upgrades and green transformation, with over 90% of replaced home appliances being high-efficiency products [4] - The recycling of scrapped vehicles increased by 24.5%, leading to significant reductions in carbon emissions [4] - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, initiated pilot projects to foster new consumption models and international consumption environments, allocating 9.6 billion yuan for the first batch of funding [4][5]

Core Insights - Qinghai Province is implementing a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods as a key measure to boost consumption, stabilize growth, and improve livelihoods, with significant support from the provincial government and the Ministry of Commerce [1] Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The province has invested a total of 1.69 billion yuan in central and provincial funds, benefiting over 1.52 million people and stimulating consumption worth 19.7 billion yuan [1] - The policy has led to the purchase of 92,000 new vehicles, 496,000 home appliances, 615,000 digital products, 319,000 home and decoration items, and 4,000 electric bicycles [1] Group 2: Operational Framework - A comprehensive policy implementation system has been established, with a single department overseeing the entire process and a unified platform for managing subsidy applications and data [2] - A mechanism for regular reporting and analysis has been put in place to ensure effective policy execution and resource allocation [2] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The policy includes measures to stabilize expectations by temporarily pausing certain subsidies and adjusting the pace of fund consumption [2] - Efforts are being made to enhance market participation by encouraging retail companies and financial institutions to collaborate [2] - The frequency of subsidy distribution has been increased from weekly to daily to better support consumer demand [2]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, introducing a series of funding policies to support the expansion of commodity consumption and optimize service consumption supply [1] - The total sales of products related to the "old-for-new" consumption policy are expected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [1] - The "old-for-new" policy will support the replacement of over 11.5 million vehicles, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles, and nearly 1.3 billion home appliances, with over 90% being first-level energy-efficient products [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, will launch pilot projects for new consumption formats, models, and international consumption environments, with 65 pilot cities selected and an initial funding of 9.6 billion yuan allocated [2] - The pilot projects will focus on supporting the "first-release economy," service consumption, and "IP + consumption," aiming to create new consumption scenarios that drive development [2] - Successful cases have emerged, such as the humanoid robot 7S store in Wuhan, which injects new momentum into urban consumption [2] Group 3 - A prize invoice initiative will be launched by the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, and the State Taxation Administration by the end of 2025, covering 50 cities to stimulate consumer demand in daily consumption scenarios [3] - The pilot cities selected account for 44% of the national GDP and social retail sales, with the Ministry of Finance set to expedite the disbursement of pilot funds [3] - The Ministry of Finance will work with relevant departments to ensure policy implementation, strengthen fund supervision, and enhance the consumption atmosphere to boost consumer willingness [3]

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is projected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% compared to 2024 [2] - National general public budget expenditure is expected to reach 28.74 trillion yuan, an increase of 1% from 2024 [2] - Tax revenue is expected to grow by 0.8%, indicating a steady recovery in the overall fiscal revenue [2] Tax Revenue by Type - Domestic value-added tax is projected to grow by 3.4%, maintaining stable growth throughout the year [2] - Domestic consumption tax is expected to increase by 2%, driven mainly by the growth in tobacco and refined oil consumption taxes [2] - Corporate income tax is anticipated to rise by 1%, with a notable increase of 2.9 percentage points in the growth rate compared to the first half of the year, primarily supported by the manufacturing sector [2] Tax Revenue by Industry - The equipment manufacturing and modern service industries are expected to show strong tax revenue performance [2] - Tax revenue from the computer and communication equipment manufacturing industry is projected to grow by 13.5% [2] - Tax revenue from the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry is expected to increase by 8% [2] - Tax revenue from scientific research and technical services is anticipated to grow by 14.3% [2] - Tax revenue from the cultural, sports, and entertainment industry is projected to rise by 7.5% [2] Regional Fiscal Performance - Out of 31 provinces, 27 are expected to see an increase in fiscal revenue compared to 2024, despite some regions experiencing declines due to falling prices of major commodities like coal [2] Childcare Subsidies - Approximately 100 billion yuan is allocated for childcare subsidies in 2025, with 90.4 billion yuan coming from the central government [3] - Over 30 million infants have already received childcare subsidies [3] - The government aims to ensure that all approved applications for 2025 are fully disbursed by the end of March 2026 [3] Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port has seen significant growth in imports and consumption since its full operation [4] - Duty-free sales in Hainan reached 6.28 billion yuan, with 981,000 shoppers participating, marking increases of 35.9%, 21%, and 8.2% respectively [4] - The sales during the New Year holiday surged by 128.9% year-on-year [4] Consumption Promotion Policies - The Ministry of Finance has allocated 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the consumption of old-for-new products [4] - The sales of related products under the old-for-new policy exceeded 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [5] - The sales of automobiles under this policy reached over 11.5 million units, with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles [5] - The retail sales of passenger cars increased by 3.8%, while retail sales of major appliances and communication equipment grew by 11% and 20.9% respectively [5] Pilot Programs for Consumption - A reward invoice program is set to be launched in 50 cities to stimulate consumer demand across various sectors [5] - The total GDP and retail sales of the pilot cities account for 44% of the national totals [5]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance announced a series of funding policies to support the expansion of commodity consumption and optimize service consumption supply in 2025, in line with the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" [1] - A total of 300 billion yuan in special long-term bonds will be allocated in four batches to support the old-for-new consumption policy, with preliminary statistics indicating that sales related to this initiative will exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people [1] - The old-for-new policy has led to significant sales in various sectors, including over 11.5 million vehicles (with nearly 60% being new energy vehicles), 130 million home appliances (over 90% being first-level energy-efficient products), and 91 million digital products (with 72.5% being mid-to-high-end models) [1] Group 2 - In late 2025, the Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce and the State Taxation Administration, will launch a prize invoice initiative in 50 cities to stimulate consumer demand across various daily consumption scenarios [2] - The selected trial cities account for approximately 44% of the national GDP and total retail sales of consumer goods, with funding to be allocated promptly after the public announcement of the city list [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funding, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and boost retail sales, although its multiplier effect appears to be less than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The State Council issued measures in July 2024, allocating approximately 150 billion yuan in long-term special government bonds for the "old-for-new" policy, with an additional 300 billion yuan planned for 2025, expanding the range of eligible products from 8 to 12 categories [2]. - The estimated sales driven by the subsidies in 2024 and 2025 are projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from various sectors including automobiles and home appliances [3]. Group 2: Impact on Retail Sales - Retail sales growth for "old-for-new" related products showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while automotive consumption lagged behind overall consumer spending [4][10]. - The first year after the policy implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, but the second year showed only a 2% increase, indicating a diminishing effect of the policy [7][10]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics and Coverage - The total number of beneficiaries from the "old-for-new" policy was only 480 million, with a notable drop to 80 million in the second half of 2025, suggesting limited reach among the broader population [25]. - The primary beneficiaries are higher-income groups, as the average price of eligible products, particularly automobiles, is high, limiting participation from lower-income consumers [25]. Group 4: Future Policy Adjustments - The 2026 policy adjustments include expanding the subsidy range to include smart glasses, standardizing subsidy amounts, and shifting from fixed to proportional subsidies for vehicle replacements, aiming to enhance fairness and effectiveness [24]. - To increase the coverage of the "old-for-new" policy, considerations include increasing funding, lowering average product prices, and focusing on job creation and income stability rather than solely on sales volume [26].

Core Insights - The consumption policy promoting trade-in for old products is expected to drive retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment to exceed 1 trillion yuan each by 2025, marking a historical high [1] - A total of 12 categories of home appliances have seen over 129 million units traded in, while new purchases of digital products like smartphones have surpassed 91 million units [1] Group 1 - The trade-in policy is significantly impacting the retail market for home appliances and communication devices [1] - Retail sales in both categories are projected to break the 1 trillion yuan mark, indicating strong consumer demand and market growth [1] - The volume of traded-in home appliances and new digital product purchases reflects a robust consumer engagement in the market [1]