光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2026 年 2 月 25 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 公开市场有 8524 亿元 7 天逆回购到期，另有 6000 亿元 14 天逆回购到期， 实现净回笼 9264 亿元。银行间市场方面，DR001 加权利率上行 5.53bp 至 1.3674%，DR007 加权利率上行 23.34bp 至 1.5545%。为保持银行体系流动性 充裕，2026 年 2 月 25 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价 位中标方式开展 6000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。近期债券市场核心驱 动是资金面宽松、经济弱修复态势延续，同时受政府债供给压力、权益回暖 等因素制约，整体偏强运行，超长债收益率下行幅度大于中短端，利差收敛 但未过度压缩，呈现"收益率窄幅震荡、超长端领涨"的态势。随着 10 年 期国债收益率跌破 1.8%重要关口，进一步下行的"做多赔率"不足。在降息 预期较弱背景下，且节后资金面稳中偏紧预期下，债市有望偏空震荡。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 （展大鹏，从业资格号：F3013795；交易咨询资格号：Z0013582） 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场多数个股上涨，Wind全A上涨1.06%，成交额2.22亿元。中证1000指数上涨1.16%，中证 500指数上涨1.12%，沪深300指数上涨1.01%，上证50指数上涨0.23%。地缘风险在节日期间未集中爆 发，但仍在酝酿。美国仍在向中东方向集结战斗力量，美伊冲突仍可能在近期爆发，贵金属维持高位震 荡。美伊冲突市场预期经过长时间的积累，计价以较为充分，局部冲突对权益市场影响有限。日本新政 府组阁完成，但距离修宪目标仍有一定时间距离，短期预计无法改变国际地缘格局。美国最高法院判决 特朗普依据IEEPA制定的关税政策违法，需要停止征收并退税，但这不影响其通过其他国内法条例征收 关税的权利；特朗普随后对全球加征10%关税，于24日生效，随后加征至15%。这一政策短期可能继续 冲击全球权益市场，但整体影响有限。此外，春节后风格切换与否也是市场关注点之一。历史上，春节 前后经常 ...

华金 证券表示，短期春季行情继续进行中，A股维持震荡偏强趋势。短期经济和盈利仍处于弱修复趋势 中。一是短期经济仍呈弱修复趋势。二是短期盈利增速可能继续处于回升周期中：首先，短期PPI同比 增速可能继续回升；其次，A股盈利继续维持结构性回升趋势。短期流动性维持宽松。一是短期宏观流 动性维持宽松：首先，美元指数低位进一步回落，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘较小；其次，国内仍可 能进一步降准降息。二是短期股市资金仍可能维持较快流入。短期风险偏好可能进一步上升。一是短期 积极的政策预期可能进一步上升。二是短期外部风险相对有限。 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.02% as of December 30, 2025, with a trading volume of 5.66 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 2.23% [1] - The average daily trading volume of the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past year is reported at 83.89 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 25.346 billion yuan, reflecting its growing significance in the market [1] Group 2 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to activate existing policies and expand domestic demand, suggesting a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to create a supportive environment for the bond market [1] - The expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the potential for domestic reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions are likely to enhance support for the bond market [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the current economic fundamentals are in a state of strong expectations but weak reality, which may provide support for the bond market despite low actual performance [2] Group 3 - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds, serving as a benchmark for investment in this category [2]

Group 1 - The central bank has adopted a supportive monetary policy since June, leading to a significant decline in funding rates, with overnight funding rates (DR001) remaining around 1.3%, providing strong support for the bond market [1][5][6] - The bond market has shown a low volatility and narrow fluctuation pattern since July, with the key to breaking this pattern lying in the implementation of a loose monetary policy [1][2] - The yield spread between key and non-key term government bonds has been significantly compressed, indicating cautious market sentiment, with the 50-year and 30-year bond spread narrowing from nearly 15 basis points to less than 9 basis points [2][3] Group 2 - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted focus from "risk prevention" to "stabilizing growth," with a low probability of new incremental monetary policy measures in the short term [3][5] - Government bond issuance has accelerated this year, with a total issuance of 7.62 trillion yuan by the end of June, which is a significant increase compared to the previous year [3][4] - The domestic economy is experiencing a weak recovery, with a strong performance in consumption but continued weakness in investment, particularly in the real estate sector [4][5] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation in the short term, with the probability of unexpected policy measures being low, while liquidity remains supportive for the bond market [5][6] - The 10-year government bond yield is projected to reach a low point of around 1.5% this year, suggesting potential entry points for investors if further adjustments occur in the bond market [6]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is currently facing fundamental pressures, with May export growth unexpectedly declining, and the pace of policy implementation likely slowing down. It is expected that fundamental pressures may ease around mid to late July [1][2] - Structural pressures exist in the A-share mid-year report performance, particularly for high-earning expectations in new consumer sectors and thematic stocks, which may face valuation adjustment risks [1][3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, such as the Iran nuclear conflict, are suppressing market sentiment and increasing uncertainty [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The A-share market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a potential for stabilization only by mid to late July if positive fundamental and policy factors emerge [2][3] - **Key Factors for Weakness**: 1. **Fundamental Pressure**: Export growth is anticipated to continue declining from June to August, increasing economic growth pressure [3] 2. **Mid-Year Report Performance**: While overall performance is stable, certain sectors may face significant structural pressures [3] 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to further suppress market sentiment [4] Important Policies and Measures - Recent policies from the Lujiazui Forum have positively impacted market sentiment, including measures from the central bank related to foreign exchange and the introduction of more favorable conditions for technology innovation companies to list [6] - The introduction of new listing standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market is expected to facilitate the entry of more innovative companies into the capital market, although the immediate impact on the market's weak state is limited [8] Macro Environment Impact - The current macro environment is characterized by weak economic recovery and declining exports, which historically correlates with weak A-share performance [7][10] - The liquidity environment is neutral to slightly positive, but potential dollar rebounds and geopolitical tensions could impact global liquidity negatively [9] Industry Allocation Recommendations - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on defensive sectors and high-potential technology sub-sectors, such as artificial intelligence and robotics, as well as undervalued blue-chip stocks in banking, construction, transportation, and electricity [11][13] - High-performing sectors historically during weak economic phases include high-growth industries and defensive sectors, such as low-valuation blue-chip stocks [12] Investment Opportunities - From a value investment perspective, sectors with low historical PE percentiles, such as non-bank financials, transportation, and non-ferrous metals, are highlighted as attractive for short-term allocation [14] - Short-term investment strategies should include a balanced mix of growth and blue-chip stocks, with a focus on undervalued sectors and those that have undergone significant adjustments [15]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a range-bound fluctuation near the 20-day moving average, with a decline in average daily trading volume to 1.14 trillion yuan [1] - Market performance was characterized by a hierarchy: consumption > growth > finance > cyclical [1] - Economic indicators such as the May PMI showed signs of recovery, but the overall economic situation remains weak due to trade friction uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Short-term risk appetite is limited, but declining interest rates favor safe-haven assets like gold and new consumption sectors with inherent growth support [2] - The long-term trade landscape has been disrupted by tariff impacts, benefiting safe-haven assets despite short-term fluctuations in gold prices [2] - The technology growth sector, particularly in AI, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military industries, may see renewed performance as earnings reports are released [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is to defend and wait and see [2] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is to be bullish in the short - term [4] 2. Core Views Stock Index - Trump talked with the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Putin is willing to draft a peace memorandum with Ukraine, and Zelensky is also willing to sign a peace memorandum and conduct negotiations but refuses territorial compromise and withdrawal. Fed officials poured cold water on interest - rate cuts, hinting that rates may stay high until at least September. China's April social retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, industrial added - value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1%, January - April urban fixed - asset investment rose 4%, and national real - estate development investment fell 10.3% year - on - year. China's Ministry of Commerce demanded the US to correct its actions. Without a clear market driver, the stock index may move in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The bond market is in an environment of weak economic recovery, and the trading logic is returning to pricing the endogenous economic momentum. The market's expectation of a deposit - rate cut is reasonable due to the narrowing net interest margin of banks. A new round of deposit - rate adjustment is a measure to match the decline in policy rates, and stabilizing the interest margin is a long - term task. The rumored cut in deposit rates is higher than that of policy rates, providing new support for the decline in yields [3] 3. Market Review Stock Index - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock - index futures rose 0.05%, 0.05%, 0.09%, and 0.15% respectively [6] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury - bond futures rose 0.02%, 0.0%, 0.03%, and 0.0% respectively [9] 4. Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible volatile movement with adjustment risks [7] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a volatile movement [10] 5. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3843.20 | 0.05 | 48882 | 149439 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2688.80 | 0.05 | 27081 | 51445 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5623.00 | 0.09 | 51297 | 118428 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5975.40 | 0.15 | 140984 | 192261 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.61 | 0.02 | 57954 | 82926 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.73 | - 0.00 | 42586 | 66890 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.32 | 0.03 | 43076 | 47914 | | 2025 - 05 - 19 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.38 | - 0.00 | 48335 | 87939 | [12]