Group 1: Historical Evolution of the Dollar's Credit Anchor - The dollar's rise was initially supported by gold, with the U.S. holding 62% of global gold reserves by 1945[1] - The Bretton Woods system (1944-1973) faced challenges due to the Triffin dilemma, leading to a collapse of the gold-dollar peg[2] - The transition to the petrodollar system (1973-2008) created a credit loop of "oil-dollar-U.S. debt," but also exposed vulnerabilities during financial crises[3] Group 2: Current Trends and Future Outlook - In the short term (within 1 year), the dollar is expected to experience weak fluctuations, primarily due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - The medium-term (1-3 years) outlook indicates a structural depreciation of the dollar, driven by fiscal sustainability concerns and diversification trends[5] - Long-term (over 3 years), the dollar's share is projected to align more closely with economic strength, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system[6] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with foreign capital inflows likely to boost domestic demand-driven stocks[7] - Gold remains a strong asset allocation choice, supported by weak dollar pricing, central bank demand, and geopolitical risk premiums[8] - Risks include potential deterioration in global liquidity and unexpected advancements in AI technology impacting financial markets[9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. trade policies on the performance of the Asia-Pacific stock markets, leading to mixed results across the region [1][3] - Southeast Asian stock markets predominantly experienced declines, with Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh Index dropping by 1.08% and Thailand's SET Index falling by 1.21% [1] - The overall trend in the Asia-Pacific region shows slight increases in stock indices, with Japan's Nikkei 225 rising by 0.25% and South Korea's KOSPI increasing by 2.94% [1] Group 2 - Economic growth in Southeast Asia is slowing, with Indonesia's GDP growth at 4.87%, the weakest since Q3 2021, and Thailand's growth at 3.1%, prompting concerns about domestic demand and high household debt [4] - Countries like Indonesia and Thailand are implementing large-scale economic stimulus measures to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, with Indonesia's plan valued at approximately $1.5 billion [5] - Experts express concerns that excessive fiscal and monetary stimulus could disrupt economic balance, particularly in Thailand, where the effectiveness of stimulus measures may be limited due to structural issues [6] Group 3 - Inflation in Asia is beginning to slow, with the consumer price index (CPI) in the region (excluding Japan) at approximately 1.5%, the lowest since Q1 2021, providing potential room for interest rate cuts [8] - Thailand's CPI decreased by 0.57% in May, marking a second consecutive month of negative inflation, while Indonesia's CPI remains within the government's target range [8] - The potential for a wave of interest rate cuts in Asia is being considered, especially in Southeast Asian countries heavily reliant on exports and tourism [8][9] Group 4 - South Korea's economy is facing a contraction risk, with a 0.2% decline in real GDP in Q1, prompting the government to initiate an "emergency economic inspection" [10] - The rise in South Korea's stock market is attributed to reform expectations, but long-term sustainability remains uncertain due to global demand slowdown and unresolved social issues [10][11] - Japan's central bank is expected to maintain interest rates, with discussions on reducing government bond purchases, reflecting a stable but cautious economic outlook [11]