编辑|小夜 12月18日，美国财政部公布的一组数据引发了全球金融圈的关注。 数据显示，中国10月份减持了118亿美元美国国债，持仓直接跌到6887亿美元，这是2008年以来的最低 纪录。 这个数据更像一场早有预谋的"战略调整"，而非一时兴起的操作。 从1.3万亿到6887亿，中国持美债的"退烧"之路 2013年的时候，中国持有美债的规模达到过1.3万亿美元的峰值，算是美国最核心的海外债主之一。 那时候中美之间有种很特别的平衡状态，简单说就是中国出口商品赚美元，赚来的美元又拿去买美债， 帮美国填补财政赤字。 文|围炉 美国则靠发国债维持高消费，还借着美元霸权收割全球财富。 但这种平衡的根基其实是双方的合作互信，一旦信任没了，一切就都变了。 转折点出现在2018年，特朗普政府直接挥舞关税大棒，对中国发起贸易战，还喊着要减少5000亿美元贸 易逆差的口号。 更让人不舒服的是，美国一边在贸易上施压，一边还动用金融霸权的手段，一会儿制裁中国企业，一会 儿威胁要切断SWIFT通道，甚至还操纵美元汇率波动。 在这种情况下，中国手里的美债就成了应对博弈的关键筹码，继续大量持有显然并非明智之举。 所以从2022年4月开始，变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic financial competition between the U.S. and China, highlighting China's significant gold reserves of 74.12 million ounces, which surpasses the U.S. Federal Reserve's holdings by 20% [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Strategy - The U.S. is not retreating but rather upgrading its "precision hegemony," focusing on controlling key regions while withdrawing from less critical areas [5][7]. - The U.S. has criticized Europe for lagging in military spending and is reallocating resources to counter China, indicating a shift in its global strategy [3][5]. - The U.S. aims to contain China through economic measures such as tariffs and technology restrictions, while simultaneously seeking cooperation in specific sectors like renewable energy [3][7]. Group 2: China's Response - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, accumulating 74.12 million ounces, which serves as a financial buffer against potential dollar depreciation [5][7]. - The reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings to $700.5 billion is a strategic move to maintain market influence while mitigating risks associated with U.S. debt fluctuations [7][8]. - China's approach to gold accumulation is seen as a long-term strategy to enhance financial autonomy and resilience against U.S. economic pressures [5][8]. Group 3: Global Implications - The shift in U.S. and Chinese strategies is leading to a reordering of global power dynamics, with China moving from a passive stance to an active role in shaping international rules [7][8]. - The competition is characterized by a contrast between the U.S.'s "small yard, high walls" approach and China's "open garden" strategy, promoting cooperation over confrontation [7][8]. - The ongoing financial competition is viewed as a test of resilience and strategic foresight, with the potential for significant shifts in global governance and economic structures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has recently surpassed the 4000-point mark, raising concerns about whether it will continue to rise towards 5000 points or face a correction. Investors are particularly anxious as many have not experienced such high levels in the past decade, and there are questions about potential market bubbles, especially with the high price-to-earnings ratios in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [1][3]. Economic and Monetary Policy Context - The global economic and political landscape is currently influenced by the Federal Reserve's sixth interest rate cut and the impending halt of its balance sheet reduction. This shift indicates a forthcoming period of monetary easing, which could lead to significant capital market fluctuations globally [3]. - The "dollar tidal effect" has been highlighted, where the Fed's interest rate hikes have previously led to capital flight from smaller economies, forcing them to raise their own interest rates to retain foreign investment [3][6]. A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market's trajectory over the past two years has been characterized by a recovery from a low of 2600 points to the current 4000 points, driven by state-led monetary policies rather than organic market recovery. Institutional investments from entities like the Central Huijin and social security funds have exceeded 265 billion yuan [6][8]. - The current bull market is not indicative of a broad economic recovery but rather a state-driven liquidity boost aimed at preventing foreign capital from taking advantage of low valuations during the Fed's easing cycle [8][9]. Implications for Foreign Investment - The A-share market's rise has positively impacted the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting a broader revaluation of Chinese assets. The aim is to prevent foreign investors from acquiring undervalued Chinese stocks during the Fed's monetary easing [9][10]. - The overall foreign investment in the A-share market remains limited, with foreign ownership at approximately 4%, but the interconnectedness with the Hong Kong market is significant [8][9]. Future Market Outlook - The expectation is that the A-share market will not experience significant corrections, with a potential upward trend towards 5000 or even 6000 points. The stability of large state-owned enterprises, particularly in banking and insurance, is crucial for maintaining the index's performance [11]. - Investors are advised to focus on individual stocks rather than the overall market index, as the performance of the index may not reflect the profitability of many individual stocks [11].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of a $4 billion sovereign bond in Hong Kong is a strategic move in the ongoing financial competition between China and the United States, aimed at attracting global capital and countering U.S. financial dominance [1][16]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - The U.S. is currently facing high interest rates and increasing government debt, leading to a complex economic situation where the Federal Reserve is reluctant to lower rates due to fears of capital flight to China [3]. - The Federal Reserve's previous rate cuts have resulted in significant capital inflows into Chinese assets, causing concern among U.S. policymakers [3]. Group 2: China's Strategic Response - In response to U.S. restrictions on capital flows, China is proactively issuing sovereign bonds to attract U.S. dollars from global markets, effectively creating a "dollar pool" [5][7]. - The successful issuance of a $2 billion bond in Saudi Arabia last year demonstrated the viability of this strategy, with demand far exceeding expectations [5][11]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - By establishing a consistent presence in global bond markets, China aims to reshape the flow of U.S. dollars and provide liquidity to countries in need, thereby enhancing its influence and creating a more stable global economic environment [11][16]. - This approach positions China as a competitive alternative to U.S. financial hegemony, promoting a model of cooperation and mutual benefit rather than coercion [13][16].

Group 1 - China plans to issue up to $4 billion in US dollar sovereign bonds in Hong Kong, which is seen as a strategic move in the context of US-China financial competition [1] - The US economy is struggling under high interest rates, and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to lower rates is driven by fears of capital flight [3][5] - Previous instances, such as a $20 billion bond issuance in Saudi Arabia, have shown that international capital is eager to invest in Chinese assets, leading to significant oversubscription [8][10] Group 2 - The US has attempted to restrict capital flows to China through legislative measures, but such actions have not deterred global capital from seeking quality assets [6][8] - China's issuance of dollar-denominated bonds serves to consolidate dollars held by other countries and provide liquidity to those in need, countering US financial hegemony [17][19] - The issuance is strategically located in Hong Kong, leveraging its status as an international financial center and signaling China's commitment to financial openness [21][23] Group 3 - The trend of increasing issuance of dollar sovereign bonds by China from 2021 to 2023 indicates growing global confidence in Chinese assets, with subscription multiples exceeding ten times [24][26] - This approach contrasts with the US's historical practices of capital extraction, positioning China as a cooperative partner in the global financial landscape [27][29] - Regular issuance of dollar sovereign bonds by China could significantly alter global dollar liquidity dynamics and enhance China's leverage in US-China financial relations [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China, amounting to $50 billion in just seven months, coincides with the U.S. government's budgetary struggles, highlighting a strategic shift in China's investment approach amidst rising U.S. fiscal instability [1][3][11]. Group 1: China's Strategic Shift - China's decision to reduce U.S. Treasury holdings is a calculated move to mitigate risks associated with the U.S. fiscal crisis and inflation, reflecting a broader trend of diversifying foreign exchange reserves [3][4]. - The reduction is not a sign of a complete severance of U.S.-China relations but rather a cautious response to the current economic landscape, where U.S. financial instability poses risks to Chinese investments [4][15]. - China's previous strategy of accumulating U.S. debt was based on the stability of the dollar and the U.S. economy, which has now changed due to increasing fiscal challenges in the U.S. [4][6]. Group 2: U.S. Fiscal Challenges - The U.S. government faces recurring budgetary impasses, leading to shutdowns that disrupt public services and reflect deeper political dysfunction, rather than a lack of funds [3][6]. - The U.S. relies heavily on debt to finance its operations, with a significant annual fiscal deficit, but political polarization has made it increasingly difficult to raise the debt ceiling [3][6]. - The withdrawal of major buyers like China and Japan from the U.S. Treasury market has diminished the attractiveness of U.S. debt, exacerbating the fiscal situation [8][11]. Group 3: Implications for U.S.-China Relations - The current dynamics indicate a shift from unilateral pressure to a more complex relationship characterized by mutual constraints and necessary cooperation [15][16]. - Trump's approach towards China has softened, recognizing China's strengthened position in various sectors, including rare earths and agriculture, which are critical to U.S. interests [9][13]. - China's actions signal a strategic maturity, indicating that it is no longer a passive player but an active participant in the global economic landscape, capable of influencing U.S. policy [15][16].

Group 1 - The core issue is the unprecedented shock to the US financial system triggered by China's significant reduction of US Treasury holdings, totaling $300 billion over three months, which has shaken market confidence [2][5] - China has strategically reduced its US Treasury holdings to $767.4 billion after selling $7.6 billion in March, marking a clear shift in its investment strategy and signaling a decrease in reliance on the US economy [2][4] - The US government has attempted to mitigate the situation by sending officials to persuade China to maintain its Treasury holdings, but China has decisively moved away from US debt, indicating a decline in trust in US financial dominance [2][5] Group 2 - In contrast to China's withdrawal, Japan has increased its US Treasury holdings by $19.9 billion in March, bringing its total to over $1.18 trillion, positioning itself as the largest holder of US debt [4] - The US faces worsening fiscal conditions, with rising inflation and a growing deficit, leading to a decline in market confidence in US Treasuries, raising questions about the wisdom of Japan's investment [4][7] - The ongoing financial turmoil reflects the broader context of US-China tensions, with China's actions seen as a direct response to US pressures, including tariffs on Chinese products and geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea [5][6] Group 3 - Despite Japan's short-term role in absorbing some of the US Treasury market's losses, it cannot restore confidence in the market, as other countries are now considering reducing their own US Treasury holdings [7] - The US economy is experiencing slow growth and market volatility, compounded by ineffective Federal Reserve interest rate policies that have failed to alleviate inflationary pressures [7] - The financial crisis is just beginning, with the potential for a more severe crisis looming on the horizon if the US government cannot find new buyers for its debt [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating financial rivalry between China and the United States, particularly in the context of recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and subsequent actions by China and Japan [1][3]. - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total reduction of $53.7 billion (approximately 382 billion RMB) in the past four months, indicating a strategic shift in its foreign asset management [3][5]. - Japan's unexpected decision to gradually sell its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) is seen as a major disruption, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and reflecting a shift in Japan's monetary policy due to persistent inflation pressures [5]. Group 2 - The article notes that the recent phone communications between U.S. and Chinese leaders suggest a potential thaw in relations, yet the financial sector remains a battleground, with China actively diversifying its foreign exchange assets and increasing gold reserves [3]. - The U.S. is facing dual pressures from both China and Japan, with the prolonged intervals in trade negotiations indicating a need for the Trump administration to pivot from confrontation to pragmatic cooperation to alleviate economic pressures [5]. - The ongoing financial rivalry is poised to reshape the global economic landscape, prompting countries to closely monitor developments and adjust their economic strategies accordingly [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury invested $8.9 billion to acquire nearly 10% of Intel's shares, marking a significant shift in government involvement in the tech sector [1][3] - Intel has invested $108 billion in capital expenditures and $79 billion in R&D over the past five years, yet its market value is only one-tenth of Nvidia's [3] - The U.S. government aims to enhance national security, recover finances through dividends, and gain influence over Intel's board by acquiring shares [3][9] Group 2 - China's response to the U.S. investment was notably calm, with significant advancements in domestic chip production, including a 92% yield rate for Yangtze Memory Technologies [5] - Chinese chip imports have decreased by 18% in the first seven months of the year, while domestic equipment exports have increased by 34% [5] - The U.S. technology blockade has proven ineffective, as Chinese companies have made significant progress in advanced manufacturing processes [7][9] Group 3 - A separate chip manufacturing corridor is emerging, with TSMC and Samsung expanding their operations in China, alongside local firms [9] - Intel's cost per 7nm wafer is approximately $9,000, while China's SMIC can produce the same at $6,000, indicating a potential pricing advantage for Chinese manufacturers [9] - The contrasting strategies of U.S. nationalization and China's market-driven approach highlight a broader shift in global economic roles [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the collapse of the "free market" myth in the U.S. due to government intervention and the rise of China's semiconductor industry during this upheaval, highlighting two contrasting development models and national strategies [1][19] - In August 2025, the U.S. government demanded Intel's CEO resign and initiated discussions for a transfer of nearly 10% of its shares, marking a shift towards a "subsidy for equity" model that spread to other semiconductor giants like Samsung and TSMC [2][4] - The U.S. government's unprecedented fiscal pressure, with a record $400 billion deficit and nearly $37.8 trillion in national debt, has led to the acquisition of equity in major tech firms as a means to stabilize market confidence [4][6] Group 2 - The "chip nationalization" strategy is significantly altering global supply chains, with companies like TSMC and Samsung facing demands to relinquish management rights and share profits from operations in China [8] - In contrast, China's semiconductor sector has thrived, with the A-share semiconductor index surging 24.6% since August, driven by a strong expectation for "self-controlled" chip enterprises and a shift in investor sentiment towards domestic technology [10][19] - China's financial system has demonstrated resilience against U.S. financial pressures, with measures such as increasing gold reserves and promoting the internationalization of the yuan, further reducing reliance on the U.S. dollar [13][15] Group 3 - The competition between the U.S. and China represents two distinct models: the U.S. opting for direct market intervention and equity acquisition, while China focuses on financial openness and policy support to enhance the autonomy and security of its financial system [17][19] - China's recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts and support for innovation, aim to stabilize the market and create a multi-layered capital ecosystem, potentially transforming its financial landscape [17][19]