1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inflation trading in the bond market is nearing its end, and the market logic may shift to changes in capital and risk appetite in the short term. With the central bank's support at the end of the quarter, liquidity remains abundant, short - term interest rates are relatively stable, and long - term interest rates have a chance for phased recovery. However, high geopolitical uncertainties and volatile oil prices may lead to continued adjustments, and the development of the Iranian situation should be monitored [104] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Weekly Data**: The 30 - year TL2609 contract rose 0.45% with a settlement price of 111.18 and a trading volume of 399,800; the 10 - year T2609 contract fell 0.02% to 108.23 with a trading volume of 365,600; the 5 - year TF2609 contract rose 0.01% to 105.98 with a trading volume of 354,200; the 2 - year TS2609 contract fell 0.01% to 102.51 with a trading volume of 186,200. The prices of the top two CTD bonds for each term also changed accordingly [12] - **Market Review of Treasury Bond Futures**: The 30 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose, while the 10 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell. The trading volumes of TS and T main contracts decreased, while those of TF and TL main contracts increased. The open interests of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts all decreased [15][21][27] 3.2 News Review and Analysis - **Key News**: On March 20, the draft financial law solicited public opinions; on March 23, the Minister of Finance emphasized investment in people; on March 24, the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission focused on the development of Xiongan New Area; on March 25, the central bank conducted MLF operations; on March 26, the OECD released an economic outlook report, and there were developments in the US - Iran situation and US unemployment data [33][34][35] 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 5 - year, and 10 - year and 1 - year yields narrowed [41] - **Main Contract Spreads**: The spread between 2 - year and 5 - year main contracts widened, while that between 5 - year and 10 - year main contracts narrowed [50] - **Treasury Bond Futures Near - Far Month Spreads**: The 10 - year contract spread narrowed, the 30 - year contract spread widened, the 5 - year contract spread significantly narrowed, and the 2 - year contract spread widened [54][61] - **Changes in Main Positions of Treasury Bond Futures**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T main contract decreased significantly [68] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: The 1 - week Shibor rate rose, while the overnight, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates fell. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.44%. Treasury bond yields declined across the board [72] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US Treasury bonds widened [78] - **Central Bank Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases with 242.3 billion yuan due, and a net MLF injection of 50 billion yuan, resulting in a total net injection of 281.9 billion yuan. The DR007 weighted average rate rose to around 1.44% [81] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1,583.458 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1,174.929 billion yuan, and a net financing of 408.529 billion yuan [86] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 6.9141, depreciating 243 basis points this week, and the spread between offshore and onshore RMB narrowed [90] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose, and the VIX index rebounded significantly [96] - **A - share Risk Premium**: The 10 - year Treasury yield declined, and the A - share risk premium rose slightly [101] 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: From January to February this year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly. However, the structural characteristics of "strong external demand, weak internal demand; strong supply, weak demand" remain, and slow terminal demand recovery may pressure the profit margins of mid - and downstream enterprises [104] - **Overseas Situation**: The prospects for the US - Iran cease - fire negotiation are unclear, which has pushed up inflation expectations. The US labor market is stable, and the market is pricing in expectations of Fed rate hikes this year [104]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's, despite a slight rebound on Friday. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 28 tons to 1,073.32 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares decreased by 231 tons to 15,762 tons [2]. - **Impact Factors**: The recent precious metal market transactions are concentrated on expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, hedging and inflation under geopolitical situations, uncertainties in trade policies, as well as economic stagflation and financial market risks. The weakness of precious metals this week was due to the Middle East geopolitical situation pushing up oil prices, further weakening the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed and European and American countries, leading to higher US dollar and US Treasury yields, thus suppressing precious metal prices. Additionally, the liquidity problem under the general decline of risk - assets also dragged down precious metal prices. However, precious metals showed a rebound trend on Friday due to concerns about economic recession rising after oil prices reached $90, increased financial market risks, a redemption wave in private credit of giants such as BlackRock, prominent shadow banking risks, a further decline in global stock markets, a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on Friday, a decline in the US dollar index, and the return of safe - haven buying demand for precious metals. Data shows that the US February non - farm payrolls report released on Friday evening showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, the non - farm payrolls increase turned negative, and the final values of non - farm payrolls increases in December and January were both revised down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US and the global economy [3]. - **Long - term Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices will mainly benefit from the game between the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time window. The current low approval rating of Trump indicates that he is likely to continuously pursue two goals in the first half of the year: to promote the Fed to implement loose monetary policies and to improve his approval rating before the mid - term elections at the end of the year by strengthening the US hegemonic position and obtaining external interests. The expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policies, the weakening of the central bank's independence, or the fermentation of various uncertainties such as external geopolitics, international trade, and global financial markets will continuously support the increase in investment demand for gold and silver from the perspectives of monetary policy easing and safe - haven demand, thus being beneficial to the continued rise of gold and silver prices in the first half of the year. In the longer term, the credibility of the global US - dollar - dominated credit currency system continues to decline, and core issues such as the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation and the loosening of the US dollar hegemony are becoming increasingly prominent, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. This trend promotes central banks around the world to continuously increase their gold reserves, triggers the competition for gold pricing power and the reconstruction of the global gold market system, and lays a solid foundation for the long - term rise of gold and silver [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Strategically, the report still maintains a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regards corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. The support level for London gold is at 5,000, and the strong support is around the 60 - day moving average of 4,800. The support level for London silver is at 80, and the strong support is in the 70 - 72 area [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased [2]. - **Impact Factors Analysis**: The precious metal market was affected by multiple factors, including the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, trade policies, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to geopolitical factors suppressed precious metal prices, but concerns about economic recession and financial risks on Friday led to a rebound in precious metal prices [3]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices are affected by the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time. In the long term, the de - dollarization process and central bank gold - buying behavior support the rise of gold and silver prices [5]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - **Trend Judgment**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regard corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. Provide support levels for London gold and silver [6]. Chapter 2: Market Information - **This Week's Event Concerns**: Enter the quiet period of Fed officials before the March 19 FOMC meeting. Continue to focus on the progress of the Middle East situation, the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian supreme leader election, the spread of the US private equity redemption wave, and the pressure on the credit market caused by discount selling risks [15]. - **Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns**: Provide a large amount of US and Chinese economic data, including PMI, non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, CPI, etc. [14][16] Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data - **International Precious Metal Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the positions and inventories of related ETFs and CFTC [17]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: Show the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver, and the inventories of related exchanges [17]. - **US Financial Asset Performance**: Provide the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, stock indices, etc. [18]. - **Domestic Financial Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, stock indices, and Treasury yields [19]. Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Information - **FOMC Post - meeting Statement**: Compare and analyze the FOMC post - meeting statements in 2026/1/29 and 2025/12/11, including the assessment of the economic situation, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting situations [34]. - **Economic Forecast Table (December FOMC)**: Provide economic forecast data such as real GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, PCE inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - run [36]. - **US CPI and Other Data**: Analyze the composition and changes of the US CPI, and present data on the US CPI and core CPI, PCE price index, non - farm payrolls, etc. [42][44] Chapter 5: Sensitive Demand and Valuation - **Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand**: Show the long - term positions of gold and silver ETFs, including SPDR, SLV, and Chinese top 3 gold ETFs and Hua'an Gold ETF [54][56]. - **Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets**: Analyze the price relationships between precious metals and related assets such as the COMEX gold - silver ratio, gold and silver lease rates, gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real yields, etc. [58][60][62] - **Global Major Exchange Inventories**: Present the inventory data of precious metals in major global exchanges such as LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, and SGX [77][79][80]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair is under scrutiny due to his connections to the Epstein case, raising ethical concerns that could impact market stability and the Fed's credibility [1][3][5]. Group 1: Ethical Concerns and Market Reactions - Warsh's social connections to high-profile individuals involved in the Epstein case have triggered significant ethical scrutiny, marking a first in the Federal Reserve's history [1][5]. - Historical precedents show that ethical controversies surrounding Federal Reserve nominees have led to notable market fluctuations, such as a 17 basis point movement in Treasury yields during Greenspan's hearings in 1996 [3]. - The dollar has already shown a 0.3% abnormal fluctuation against the euro, and the probability of a rate hike in June has decreased by 8 percentage points according to futures markets [3]. Group 2: Regulatory and Legislative Implications - The ethical review process for Federal Reserve nominees includes 136 indicators, with social ties to criminal investigations weighted at 23%, significantly higher than academic misconduct [5]. - The ambiguity in regulations regarding social interactions with criminal investigation subjects could complicate Warsh's nomination, as his connections fall into a gray area [8]. - A memo from the Senate Banking Committee raises concerns about whether Warsh's ties to Epstein's social circle could affect his impartiality in regulating Wall Street [8]. Group 3: Broader Market Impact - The ongoing release of Epstein case documents may reveal more names from the financial sector, increasing market caution regarding Warsh's nomination [9]. - The potential for a leadership vacuum at the Federal Reserve is causing traders to hedge against extreme risks, as indicated by the pricing in the federal funds rate swap market [9]. - The need for the Federal Reserve to maintain a "morally impeccable" public image contrasts with Wall Street's focus on policy continuity, highlighting a tension that could affect market stability [9].

Core Viewpoint - Major bond investment firms, including PIMCO, PGIM, and Deutsche Asset Management, warn that President Trump's impact on the Federal Reserve's independence could lead to higher interest rates instead of the intended lower rates [1] Group 1: Impact on Financial Markets - The weakening of the Federal Reserve's credibility in combating inflation could inject significant new risks into financial markets [1] - Continued uncertainty may lead traders to keep U.S. Treasury yields at elevated levels, increasing costs for mortgages, corporate loans, and other credit [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Gregory Peters, Co-Head of Fixed Income at PGIM, indicates that the market may view the Federal Reserve as an unstable source, causing unease among investors [1] - The threat of the Justice Department suing Fed Chair Jerome Powell reflects further erosion of institutional norms, which could have profound long-term implications [1]

Core Viewpoint - The next financial crisis may be triggered by inflation, particularly due to fluctuating tariff policies, which could lead to significant market volatility and impact both bond and stock prices [1][14]. Group 1: Inflation and Market Impact - Tariff policies are likely to cause inflation, and if inflation rates remain high during the winter and spring, the Federal Reserve may struggle to decide between raising or lowering interest rates, leading to a potential crash in bond and stock markets [1][14]. - The financial markets have shown resilience despite various global risks, including geopolitical tensions and changing trade policies, largely due to factors like market optimism and support from the Federal Reserve [6]. Group 2: AI and Market Volatility - The debate around the AI bubble has intensified, with some stocks experiencing significant price increases, raising concerns about potential overvaluation [11]. - Engel does not view the AI sector as a typical bubble, suggesting that while some companies may be overvalued, others could sustain their high valuations [11][13]. Group 3: Currency and Global Economic Dynamics - The dollar is expected to continue depreciating, and there is speculation about the emergence of a multi-currency system, with the yuan and euro potentially gaining prominence [7][8]. - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by purchasing gold, indicating a shift away from reliance on the dollar [6]. Group 4: Climate Change and Policy Implications - The U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and subsequent policy changes have raised concerns about climate issues being sidelined, which could have long-term economic implications [8]. - Engel emphasizes the need for awareness of climate-related risks, although he currently sees no significant climate risk to the U.S. banking sector [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies and Risk Management - Engel suggests that investors should consider holding cash or other assets that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations as a buffer against unpredictable events [2][18]. - The COVOL model can help investors build more resilient portfolios by assessing global risks and estimating the impact of various events on asset volatility [17].

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent gold policy introduced by the government and emphasizes the importance of understanding current financial market signals [1][3] - The financial market is experiencing significant volatility, indicating potential risks that should not be ignored by investors and companies [3][5] - Notable market signals are emerging, suggesting that even seasoned investors are becoming cautious, which may indicate an impending market shift [5][11] Group 2 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has accumulated a record cash reserve of $381.7 billion and has been selling more stocks than it buys, indicating a defensive strategy in the current market [7][9] - The Federal Reserve's actions, such as the recent decrease in bank reserves and the initiation of overnight reverse repurchase agreements, suggest underlying financial system stress despite a public commitment to a hawkish stance [12][14] - The divergence in central bank strategies, with some countries selling gold while others are buying, signals a critical turning point in the market [16] Group 3 - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of potential trouble, following an 18-year cycle that historically leads to economic downturns, which could impact global markets, including China [18][20] - The rising U.S. housing prices, driven by loose monetary policy, may not be sustainable, posing risks of a market correction that could affect demand for Chinese exports [18][20] - Chinese companies are advised to optimize their investments and focus on domestic market opportunities to reduce reliance on volatile overseas markets [25][27] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to maintain liquidity and prioritize stable investments, such as government bonds and reputable blue-chip stocks, in light of market uncertainties [27][29] - The Federal Reserve's plan to end quantitative tightening indicates a recognition of potential risks, which should be considered by investors when adjusting their strategies [29]

Core Points - The actual controller and executive director of Jiulong Fund, Guan Jinsheng, passed away on October 7, 2025, due to sudden illness [1] Group 1: Background of Guan Jinsheng - Guan Jinsheng was born in 1947 in Jiangxi Province and excelled academically, entering Shanghai International Studies University to study French [4] - He transitioned to the financial industry in the early 1980s, joining Shanghai International Trust in 1982 and later co-founding one of China's earliest modern securities firms, Wangguo Securities, in 1988 [4] - Wangguo Securities played a significant role in the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990, contributing to trading rules, equipment, and training [4] Group 2: Key Events in Career - The "327 National Bond Incident" in 1995 marked a pivotal moment in Guan's career, highlighting the complexities of market risks and regulatory boundaries [5] - Following the incident, Guan resigned and was later imprisoned for 17 years after the merger of his firm with another [5] Group 3: Return to the Market - Guan returned to the capital market in 2016 by establishing Jiulong Fund, which he described as a well-considered decision supported by extensive preparation and community backing [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not provided explicit guidance on future interest rate cuts but has released positive signals regarding economic fundamentals, inflation expectations, and financial markets, indirectly raising expectations that the "rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end" [1][4] Economic Activity Outlook - In September, the ECB noted continued growth in manufacturing and services, emphasizing that previous rate cuts and government fiscal policies have created positive momentum for the economy [2] - The ECB believes that rate cuts will further stimulate consumption and investment, with government spending on infrastructure and defense expected to support investment in the Eurozone [2] External Economic Environment - The ECB has shifted its stance on external risks, indicating that while trade tensions and a strong euro may suppress growth in the short term, these negative impacts are expected to dissipate by 2026 [2][3] - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU is anticipated to reduce uncertainty, leading the ECB to view the risks to Eurozone economic growth as more balanced [2] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the factors driving inflation are dissipating, leading to a more stable inflation outlook, with current inflation around 2%, close to the medium-term target [3][4] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate an upward revision for 2025 and 2026 inflation rates, with projections of 2.1% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was slightly lowered to 1.9% [3] Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB maintains that despite inflation being below target, there is no need to alter monetary policy due to "minor deviations" [4] - The ECB has signaled a commitment to maintaining current interest rates and will continue to adopt a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine appropriate monetary policy [4] Market Stability - The ECB has reassured markets regarding the stability of the Eurozone sovereign bond market, indicating that it has the necessary tools to address risks if market conditions deteriorate [4][5] - Despite a reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts, some institutions still believe that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance if certain factors arise [4][6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include financial market volatility and unexpected changes in external monetary policies, particularly if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance [5][6] - The ECB is currently more optimistic about external conditions and internal momentum, which supports its decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance [5][6]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is currently experiencing deflation, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year from January to June [1] - Prices of various goods are showing a trend of stability with a decline, such as pork prices dropping from 26-28 yuan per jin to 17-18 yuan per jin [1] Causes of Deflation - Two main reasons for the deflation: excessive currency circulation within the financial system without reaching capital and goods markets, and a significant decline in consumer confidence leading to reduced loan demand [3] - The downturn in the real economy has resulted in decreased household incomes, causing families to cut back on non-essential spending, leading to unsold goods and prompting companies to lower prices for quick cash recovery [3] Cash Holding Advantages - Individuals holding cash are in a favorable position for several reasons: cash is becoming more valuable, they can avoid financial market risks, have liquidity for emergencies, and can seize new investment opportunities [3] Interest Rates and Cash Value - Bank deposit interest rates have been declining, now entering the "1 era," indicating that cash is gaining purchasing power in a deflationary environment [5] Financial Market Risks - The financial market is facing increasing risks, with many individuals withdrawing bank deposits to invest in high-yield stocks and funds, leading to significant losses for investors [7] - The average loss for stock investors in 2024 is projected to be 140,000 yuan, with many funds experiencing losses of 20%-30% [7] Emergency Preparedness - Holding cash allows individuals to better manage unexpected events such as unemployment or health issues, providing a buffer during economic downturns [9] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions indicate significant bubbles in both the stock and real estate markets, with price-to-income ratios in major cities being unsustainable [11] - Individuals with cash can wait for these bubbles to deflate before making investments, positioning themselves for potential gains in the future [11]

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicated that recent events reflect President Trump's preferred monetary policy and its potential impacts on the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Reports suggest that Trump may be preparing to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, leading to a decline in the two-year Treasury yield, indicating market expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy under new leadership [1] - Conversely, the ten-year Treasury yield increased, contributing to a market downturn [1] Group 2: Predictions and Insights - Summers speculated that Trump is unlikely to replace Powell due to the direct and severe consequences it could have on the market [1] - He noted that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, with his financial market experience, is aware of the risks associated with such a move [1]