2003年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、上海纽约大学金融波动研究所（VINS）联席所长罗伯特·恩格尔 （Robert Engle）在接受21世纪经济报道记者独家专访时表示，导火索可能是通货膨胀。"关 税很可能会引发通货膨胀，如果今年冬天、明年春天通胀率持续走高，尤其是在劳动力市场疲 软的情况下，美联储将无法决定是加息还是降息，因此，低利率的好处将无法显现，债券价格 将会暴跌，股市也将大幅下跌。" 对于人工智能的风险，恩格尔不认为这是一个典型的泡沫。人工智能是否会彻底改变我们所看 到的一切，不再需要任何员工，或者它仅仅是一个提高现有工人效率的工具，这一问题存在着 如此多截然不同的观点。 恩格尔是著名计量经济学家，其创立的ARCH模型在经济、财务、统计等领域具有跨学界的贡 献。2003年，凭借开创性工作，恩格尔被瑞典皇家科学院授予诺贝尔经济学奖。他提出的 ARCH模型已成为经济界用来进行研究以及金融市场分析人士用来评估价格和风险必不可少的 工具。 编辑丨和佳 李艳霞 视频丨许婷婷 实习生余艾憧 "日中则昃，月盈则食，天地盈虚，与时消息"。万物皆有周期，金融市场也不例外。关键问题 是：下一场危机的导火索在哪儿？ 整体而言，恩 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent gold policy introduced by the government and emphasizes the importance of understanding current financial market signals [1][3] - The financial market is experiencing significant volatility, indicating potential risks that should not be ignored by investors and companies [3][5] - Notable market signals are emerging, suggesting that even seasoned investors are becoming cautious, which may indicate an impending market shift [5][11] Group 2 - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, has accumulated a record cash reserve of $381.7 billion and has been selling more stocks than it buys, indicating a defensive strategy in the current market [7][9] - The Federal Reserve's actions, such as the recent decrease in bank reserves and the initiation of overnight reverse repurchase agreements, suggest underlying financial system stress despite a public commitment to a hawkish stance [12][14] - The divergence in central bank strategies, with some countries selling gold while others are buying, signals a critical turning point in the market [16] Group 3 - The U.S. housing market is showing signs of potential trouble, following an 18-year cycle that historically leads to economic downturns, which could impact global markets, including China [18][20] - The rising U.S. housing prices, driven by loose monetary policy, may not be sustainable, posing risks of a market correction that could affect demand for Chinese exports [18][20] - Chinese companies are advised to optimize their investments and focus on domestic market opportunities to reduce reliance on volatile overseas markets [25][27] Group 4 - Investors are encouraged to maintain liquidity and prioritize stable investments, such as government bonds and reputable blue-chip stocks, in light of market uncertainties [27][29] - The Federal Reserve's plan to end quantitative tightening indicates a recognition of potential risks, which should be considered by investors when adjusting their strategies [29]

Core Points - The actual controller and executive director of Jiulong Fund, Guan Jinsheng, passed away on October 7, 2025, due to sudden illness [1] Group 1: Background of Guan Jinsheng - Guan Jinsheng was born in 1947 in Jiangxi Province and excelled academically, entering Shanghai International Studies University to study French [4] - He transitioned to the financial industry in the early 1980s, joining Shanghai International Trust in 1982 and later co-founding one of China's earliest modern securities firms, Wangguo Securities, in 1988 [4] - Wangguo Securities played a significant role in the establishment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange in 1990, contributing to trading rules, equipment, and training [4] Group 2: Key Events in Career - The "327 National Bond Incident" in 1995 marked a pivotal moment in Guan's career, highlighting the complexities of market risks and regulatory boundaries [5] - Following the incident, Guan resigned and was later imprisoned for 17 years after the merger of his firm with another [5] Group 3: Return to the Market - Guan returned to the capital market in 2016 by establishing Jiulong Fund, which he described as a well-considered decision supported by extensive preparation and community backing [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has not provided explicit guidance on future interest rate cuts but has released positive signals regarding economic fundamentals, inflation expectations, and financial markets, indirectly raising expectations that the "rate-cutting cycle is nearing its end" [1][4] Economic Activity Outlook - In September, the ECB noted continued growth in manufacturing and services, emphasizing that previous rate cuts and government fiscal policies have created positive momentum for the economy [2] - The ECB believes that rate cuts will further stimulate consumption and investment, with government spending on infrastructure and defense expected to support investment in the Eurozone [2] External Economic Environment - The ECB has shifted its stance on external risks, indicating that while trade tensions and a strong euro may suppress growth in the short term, these negative impacts are expected to dissipate by 2026 [2][3] - The recent trade agreement between the US and EU is anticipated to reduce uncertainty, leading the ECB to view the risks to Eurozone economic growth as more balanced [2] Inflation Outlook - ECB President Lagarde stated that the factors driving inflation are dissipating, leading to a more stable inflation outlook, with current inflation around 2%, close to the medium-term target [3][4] - The ECB's latest forecasts indicate an upward revision for 2025 and 2026 inflation rates, with projections of 2.1% for 2025 and 1.7% for 2026, while the 2027 forecast was slightly lowered to 1.9% [3] Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB maintains that despite inflation being below target, there is no need to alter monetary policy due to "minor deviations" [4] - The ECB has signaled a commitment to maintaining current interest rates and will continue to adopt a "data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting" approach to determine appropriate monetary policy [4] Market Stability - The ECB has reassured markets regarding the stability of the Eurozone sovereign bond market, indicating that it has the necessary tools to address risks if market conditions deteriorate [4][5] - Despite a reduction in the likelihood of rate cuts, some institutions still believe that the ECB may adopt a more dovish stance if certain factors arise [4][6] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include financial market volatility and unexpected changes in external monetary policies, particularly if the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive rate-cutting stance [5][6] - The ECB is currently more optimistic about external conditions and internal momentum, which supports its decision to maintain the current monetary policy stance [5][6]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is currently experiencing deflation, with CPI decreasing by 0.1% year-on-year from January to June [1] - Prices of various goods are showing a trend of stability with a decline, such as pork prices dropping from 26-28 yuan per jin to 17-18 yuan per jin [1] Causes of Deflation - Two main reasons for the deflation: excessive currency circulation within the financial system without reaching capital and goods markets, and a significant decline in consumer confidence leading to reduced loan demand [3] - The downturn in the real economy has resulted in decreased household incomes, causing families to cut back on non-essential spending, leading to unsold goods and prompting companies to lower prices for quick cash recovery [3] Cash Holding Advantages - Individuals holding cash are in a favorable position for several reasons: cash is becoming more valuable, they can avoid financial market risks, have liquidity for emergencies, and can seize new investment opportunities [3] Interest Rates and Cash Value - Bank deposit interest rates have been declining, now entering the "1 era," indicating that cash is gaining purchasing power in a deflationary environment [5] Financial Market Risks - The financial market is facing increasing risks, with many individuals withdrawing bank deposits to invest in high-yield stocks and funds, leading to significant losses for investors [7] - The average loss for stock investors in 2024 is projected to be 140,000 yuan, with many funds experiencing losses of 20%-30% [7] Emergency Preparedness - Holding cash allows individuals to better manage unexpected events such as unemployment or health issues, providing a buffer during economic downturns [9] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions indicate significant bubbles in both the stock and real estate markets, with price-to-income ratios in major cities being unsustainable [11] - Individuals with cash can wait for these bubbles to deflate before making investments, positioning themselves for potential gains in the future [11]

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers indicated that recent events reflect President Trump's preferred monetary policy and its potential impacts on the market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Reports suggest that Trump may be preparing to dismiss Fed Chair Powell, leading to a decline in the two-year Treasury yield, indicating market expectations of a shift towards looser monetary policy under new leadership [1] - Conversely, the ten-year Treasury yield increased, contributing to a market downturn [1] Group 2: Predictions and Insights - Summers speculated that Trump is unlikely to replace Powell due to the direct and severe consequences it could have on the market [1] - He noted that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, with his financial market experience, is aware of the risks associated with such a move [1]

Core Viewpoint - The future downward and upward pressures on the U.S. economy's internal demand are identified, with downward pressures stemming from tariffs, wealth effect deterioration, and potential financial market contagion, while upward pressures are linked to private investment and Fed rate cuts [2][12]. Group 1: Tariffs as a Downward Uncertainty Source - Tariffs are the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturns, significantly impacting U.S. import demand and consequently global trade [4][14]. - The U.S. accounts for 16% of global imports (excluding intra-EU trade) and approximately one-third of global final consumption goods imports, indicating its critical role in global trade dynamics [4][14]. - A negative growth of over 5% in U.S. import growth could exert substantial pressure on the global economy, necessitating close monitoring of the impact of tariffs on U.S. imports [4][19]. Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect of U.S. residents is highly sensitive to stock market performance, with a potential decline in consumer spending resilience if the stock market continues to fall [6][26]. - A 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq index in Q1 2024 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%, with further declines potentially exacerbating this effect [6][26]. - The outlook for disposable cash flow is bleak, with a projected 4.5% year-on-year increase in wage income for 2025, slightly below 2024's 4.8% [7][30]. Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market is currently facing multiple risks, including liquidity issues and high leverage, which could amplify market volatility and impact the economic fundamentals [8][36]. - Political uncertainties, such as tariffs, may further exacerbate financial market fluctuations, posing additional risks to economic growth [8][36]. Group 4: Private Investment as an Upward Risk - Following the Fed's rate cuts, real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years, typically leading economic recovery [9][40]. - Major U.S. tech companies are increasing their capital expenditures, with a 19% upward revision in 2025 capital spending expectations compared to earlier forecasts [9][46].

Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]