Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose by over 2% overnight, inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply-demand expectation towards a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose by nearly 3% overnight, also inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply-demand difference of zinc is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non-ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Overnight copper price rose by over 2%, influenced by the Fed's actions. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Smelting output decreased month - on - month but still shows high - growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions turn the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 92,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,834 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 24.76 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,975 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price rose by nearly 3%, affected by the Fed's actions. Zinc concentrate processing fees have dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not significant, but the market sentiment of non - ferrous metals should be noted [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,970 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,198 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 172.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 59,800 tons, and the daily change was 1,650 tons [2]. Other Metals - For aluminum, the previous domestic futures closing price was 21,875 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.68 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 520,800 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - For nickel, the previous domestic futures closing price was 115,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,530 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 186.96 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,092 tons, and the daily change was 564 tons [2]. - For lead, the previous domestic futures closing price was 17,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,984 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 48.25 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 235,550 tons, and the daily change was - 1,375 tons [2]. - For tin, the previous domestic futures closing price was 318,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,180 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 41,880 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 22.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,655 tons, and the daily change was 605 tons [2].

Market Overview and Analysis - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds in the primary market last week was 252.2 billion, 351.4 billion, and 112.5 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 39.1 billion, 325.9 billion, and 112.5 billion [1] - Financial bonds (excluding policy financial bonds) totaled an issuance scale of 195.7 billion with a net financing amount of 143.9 billion, while non-financial credit bonds had an issuance scale of 328.1 billion and a net financing amount of 113.5 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - The bond market showed weak performance due to concerns over bond fund redemptions and risks associated with real estate bonds, influenced by rumors of new redemption fees and the Vanke incident [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The central bank's MLF operations released signals of support, maintaining a stable funding environment across the month, with R001 and R007 rates rising by 3.8 basis points and 2.7 basis points respectively compared to the previous week [3][11] Policy and Fundamentals - Industrial profits significantly declined in October, and the manufacturing PMI for November remained weak. High-frequency data indicates a divergence in production performance, with weak demand in real estate and exports but strong consumer spending related to travel. Prices for food and production materials have mostly rebounded [4][12] Overseas Market - Federal Reserve officials expressed dovish sentiments, and weak performance in the U.S. September PPI and sales data led to increased expectations for a rate cut in December FOMC. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.02%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [5][13] Equity Market - A-shares rebounded significantly last week, influenced by gains in U.S. tech stocks, with leading increases in the communication, electronics, and non-ferrous sectors. The average daily trading volume decreased to 1.74 trillion, down 128.1 billion from the previous week, with market activity concentrated in communication and non-ferrous sectors [6][14] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has shown weak performance since November, primarily due to the market's weak capacity to absorb long-term bonds. The duration of fiscal bond issuance has been increasing, and some banks' interest rate risk indicators are nearing regulatory limits. As year-end approaches, the ability of banks to absorb long-term bonds is further weakened, compounded by poor performance in insurance products. The bond market curve may continue to steepen, with cautious investor sentiment expected to persist [7][15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve can act more cautiously once interest rates reach a neutral level [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Milan indicated that reaching a neutral interest rate would allow for more careful actions by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The risk of a sharp increase in unemployment necessitates action from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Kashkari, acknowledges the potential for a significant rise in unemployment [1] - The statement indicates a proactive stance by the Federal Reserve in response to economic indicators [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Congress member, Chavez-Dremer, expressed that the Federal Reserve should have taken action earlier [1] Group 1 - The statement indicates a growing concern among lawmakers regarding the Federal Reserve's timing in implementing monetary policy changes [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller emphasizes that the Federal Reserve should not wait for a deterioration in the labor market before taking action [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Actions - Waller advocates for proactive measures by the Federal Reserve to address economic conditions rather than reactive responses to labor market changes [1] Labor Market Insights - The statement suggests that monitoring labor market indicators is crucial for timely interventions by the Federal Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the German Central Bank, Nagel, emphasizes that financial markets have their own language, which is currently reflecting the impact of the Federal Reserve's actions on the market [1] Group 1 - Financial markets are demonstrating the influence of the Federal Reserve's decisions [1]

Core Insights - The upcoming June CPI data is expected to reflect the impact of tariffs, particularly on tariff-sensitive goods like clothing, but it is unlikely to prompt the Federal Reserve to take action this month [1][1][1] Economic Indicators - Economists predict a month-over-month increase of 0.3% for both overall and core CPI, compared to a 0.1% increase in May [1][1][1] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.4 basis points to 3.895%, the 10-year yield increased by 0.6 basis points to 4.432%, and the 30-year yield went up by 0.4 basis points to 4.977% [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The cost of debt repayment may adversely affect other economic activities, indicating that debt issues could lead to interest rate trends that are not influenced by Federal Reserve actions [1] Group 1 - Debt repayment costs are highlighted as a potential negative factor for various economic activities [1] - The article suggests that debt issues may create a scenario where interest rate movements are independent of the Federal Reserve's decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida stated that pressure from the White House is not a consideration for the Federal Reserve's actions [1] Group 1 - Clarida emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve from political influence [1] - The statement reflects the Fed's commitment to making decisions based on economic data rather than external pressures [1] - Clarida's comments may reassure investors about the Fed's focus on monetary policy rather than political considerations [1]