Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are neutral, with the expected trend of PE being volatile today. The PP fundamentals are also neutral, and the PP is expected to fluctuate today [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with limited support for the polyolefin cost side. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, with overall weak demand support. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,160 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 7, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (-8), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the agricultural film operation rate slightly increases but remains weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is cost and demand, driven by domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The new production capacity of Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, with sufficient supply. The demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations, and the overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -72, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the new production capacity is put into operation, the average downstream operation rate remains stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the PE production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the PP production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate generally showed an upward trend [16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded from the bottom and closed with a lower shadow yesterday. The spot market for linear LL was stable for Sinopec and partially stable for PetroChina, while the spot market for拉丝PP saw some price cuts of 50 yuan by Sinopec and stability from PetroChina. The market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is being slowly digested. The overall spot price of polyolefins is weak at the beginning of the month. Whether the stop - fall of the futures market can drive the spot market to stop falling remains to be seen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7270 yuan, 7276 yuan, and 7204 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 17 yuan, - 23 yuan, and - 26 yuan and declines of - 0.23%, - 0.32%, and - 0.36% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 324382, 11181, and 5021, and the open interests were 468822, 29742, and 9200, with changes of + 28457, + 294, and - 3708 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 6, 72, and - 66, compared to previous values of - 12, 69, and - 57 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6965 yuan, 6982 yuan, and 6871 yuan respectively, with price drops of - 9 yuan, - 13 yuan, and - 11 yuan and declines of - 0.13%, - 0.19%, and - 0.16% compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 294958, 8448, and 1912, and the open interests were 558606, 43187, and 6477, with changes of + 30363, + 1920, and - 680 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 17, 111, and - 94, compared to previous values of - 21, 113, and - 92 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2387 yuan/ton, 6605 yuan/ton, 575 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2364 yuan/ton, 6575 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7200 - 7700 yuan, 7150 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7300 - 7700 yuan, 7200 - 7450 yuan, and 7400 - 7750 yuan. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6800 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6850 - 7000 yuan, 6800 - 7000 yuan, and 6800 - 7050 yuan [2]. News - On Monday (September 1st), the trading range of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.66 - $64.88 per barrel. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.15 per barrel, up $0.67 or 0.99% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.12 - $68.36 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with supply exceeding demand. During the maintenance season of upstream petrochemical plants, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization declines, and new production capacity continues to be released. Overall, the supply side shows an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices and propane prices remain weak and are expected to continue this way, with weak cost support. PDH - made PP maintains a small profit. In the off - season, downstream demand shows no significant improvement, the operating rate remains low, with mainly rigid - demand purchases and insufficient follow - up of terminal orders [2] Summary by Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE oil - based production profit is 172.1 yuan/ton (+88.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 237.9 yuan/ton (+88.6), and PDH - made PP production profit is 192.5 yuan/ton (-38.7). PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report shows the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawing East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawing East China [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 133.0 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit is - 648.1 yuan/ton (-19.7), and PP export profit is 31.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports, but does not provide specific data [72][75][77] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 09 - 01; - Cross - variety: Short coal - based profits [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a supply - exceeding - demand pattern, and the futures market shows narrow - range fluctuations. The petrochemical inventory is accumulating, while downstream factories have strong restocking efforts, leading to a slow reduction in upstream factory inventory and trader inventory. During the petrochemical plant maintenance season, there are many planned maintenance devices, and several previously shut - down devices are expected to restart soon, resulting in an upward trend in supply and some supply pressure. It is currently the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand. The agricultural film operating rate continues to decline, and the operating rates of other end - users fluctuate weakly. End - user factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The international crude oil price is on the rise, strengthening the cost support for polyolefins. There is still cost - side support for PDH - made PP, and with the decline in propane prices, the operating rate of PDH - made PP has increased slightly [2]. Summary by Related Catalog I. Market Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 7,078 yuan/ton (+12), and that of the PP main contract is 6,932 yuan/ton (+7). The LL spot price in North China is 7,090 yuan/ton (+0), and in East China is 7,100 yuan/ton (+0). The PP spot price in East China is 7,070 yuan/ton (-10). The LL basis in North China is 12 yuan/ton (-12), in East China is 22 yuan/ton (-12), and the PP basis in East China is 138 yuan/ton (-17) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 77.4% (+0.6%), and the PP operating rate is 77.0% (+1.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 207.1 yuan/ton (-80.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 52.9 yuan/ton (-80.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 164.9 yuan/ton (+7.4) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit is - 460.1 yuan/ton (+52.8), and the PP export profit is 14.6 US dollars/ton (-1.2) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of the PE downstream agricultural film is 12.9% (-0.1%), the operating rate of the PE downstream packaging film is 48.9% (+0.3%), the operating rate of the PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.7% (-0.5%), and the operating rate of the PP downstream BOPP film is 60.4% (+0.7%) [1]. II. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Be cautiously bearish on plastics [3]. - **Inter - period**: No inter - period strategy is provided [3].