Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of polyolefins maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with supply exceeding demand. During the maintenance season of upstream petrochemical plants, the number of maintenance enterprises increases slightly, capacity utilization declines, and new production capacity continues to be released. Overall, the supply side shows an incremental trend. Enterprises' inventories accumulate, and the destocking rate is slow. International oil prices and propane prices remain weak and are expected to continue this way, with weak cost support. PDH - made PP maintains a small profit. In the off - season, downstream demand shows no significant improvement, the operating rate remains low, with mainly rigid - demand purchases and insufficient follow - up of terminal orders [2] Summary by Catalog I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts, as well as the basis between LL East China and the main contract, and PP East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE oil - based production profit is 172.1 yuan/ton (+88.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 237.9 yuan/ton (+88.6), and PDH - made PP production profit is 192.5 yuan/ton (-38.7). PE operating rate is 77.8% (-1.7%), and PP operating rate is 76.6% (-0.8%) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - The report shows the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawing East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawing East China [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit is - 133.0 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit is - 648.1 yuan/ton (-19.7), and PP export profit is 31.2 US dollars/ton (+2.4) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.6% (+0.5%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.1% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 42.0% (-0.2%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.6% (+0.3%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The report mentions the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports, but does not provide specific data [72][75][77] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: Reverse spread of 09 - 01; - Cross - variety: Short coal - based profits [3]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-06-10 基本面维持，聚烯烃窄幅震荡 策略 单边：塑料谨慎偏空。 跨期：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7078元/吨（+12），PP主力合约收盘价为6932元/吨（+7），LL华北现货为7090 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7100元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为7070元/吨（-10），LL华北基差为12元/吨（-12），LL 华东基差为22元/吨（-12）， PP华东基差为138元/吨（-17）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为77.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为77.0%（+1.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为207.1元/吨（-80.1），PP油制生产利润为-52.9元/吨（-80.1），PDH制PP生产利润 为-164.9元/吨（+7.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-310.6元/吨（+9.4），PP进口利润为-460.1元/吨（+52.8），PP出口利润为14.6美元/吨（-1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为12.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.9%（+0. ...