行 基础化工 2025 年 11 月 30 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：万华上调东南亚及南亚地区 MDI 价 格，韩国提高对华 PET 薄膜反倾销税 投资要点： 团队成员 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.4%，创业板指数上涨 4.54%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.64%，中信基础化工指数上涨 3.49%，申万化工指数上涨 2.98%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为膜 材料(7.48%)、钛白粉(5.85%)、氯碱(4.57%)、电子化学品(4.47%)、其他塑料制 品(4.18%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为橡胶助剂(-3.22%)、轮胎 (0.41%)、食品及饲料添加剂(0.78%)、合成树脂(1.14%)、印染化学品(1.4%)。 本周行业主要动态： 万华上调东南亚及南亚地区 MDI 价格。2025 年 11 月 27 日，万华化学 宣布，将从 2025 年 12 月 1 日起，上调在东南亚及南亚地区的聚合 MDI 与 纯 MDI 产品价格，调涨幅度为 200 美元/吨，或按既定合同执行。本次价 格调整是基于对市场环境、产品 ...

Group 1 - The three major South Korean shipbuilding companies are experiencing a significant increase in hiring, with nearly 4,000 new employees recruited in 2024, marking a 29.4% increase from 2023 and more than double the number from 2022 [2][3] - The largest number of new hires comes from Hanwha Ocean, which recruited 2,122 employees, followed by Samsung Heavy Industries with 1,037, and HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering with 762 [2] - The proportion of "boomerang employees" (those returning to their previous companies) is high, accounting for 66% of the new hires among the three companies [3] Group 2 - HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering reported a revenue of 255,386 billion KRW (approximately 1,340 million RMB) in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and an operating profit of 14,341 billion KRW (approximately 75.2 million RMB), up 408% [3] - Samsung Heavy Industries achieved a revenue of 99,031 billion KRW (approximately 519 million RMB) in 2024, a 23.6% increase, with an operating profit of 5,027 billion KRW (approximately 26.36 million RMB), reflecting a significant growth of 115.5% [4] - Hanwha Ocean's revenue reached 107,760 billion KRW (approximately 565 million RMB) in 2024, a 45.5% increase, and it turned a profit with an operating profit of 2,379 billion KRW (approximately 12.5 million RMB) [4] Group 3 - Despite a projected decline in global new ship orders in the first half of 2025, the South Korean shipbuilding industry maintains a strong order backlog of 33.81 million compensated gross tons (CGT), with an order coverage ratio of approximately 3.2 years [4][5] - Hanwha Ocean has initiated recruitment for new graduates for the second half of 2025, increasing the hiring scale by over 200 to reach 800 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand and a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry cycle [1][3][6]. Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - The capital expenditure of chemical listed companies is projected to decline starting in 2024, resulting in a decrease in fixed asset investment growth for chemical raw materials and products [3]. - The rapid expansion of chemical production capacity is anticipated to conclude by the second half of 2025 [3]. - The exit of outdated production capacity in Europe, driven by high energy costs and frequent uncontrollable events, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances for various chemical products [3]. - China's ongoing "energy conservation and carbon reduction" initiatives are likely to accelerate the elimination and transformation of high-energy-consuming outdated production capacity [3]. Group 2: Demand Side Factors - Favorable policies in China are expected to boost domestic demand for chemical products, with recent initiatives like the trade-in policy for consumer goods driving sales in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - The Chinese government plans to enhance support for large-scale equipment upgrades and expand the variety and scale of trade-in policies by 2025, which is likely to further stimulate domestic chemical product demand [4]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on direct exports of chemical products from China is considered limited, as the proportion of exports to the U.S. is relatively low compared to domestic production [5]. Group 3: Industry Cycle and Performance - In Q1 2025, the chemical industry showed mixed performance, with the petroleum and basic chemical sectors reporting revenues of 1,015.1 billion and 607 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.1% and 6.4% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petroleum and basic chemical sectors was 17 billion and 37.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -23.5% and 4.7% [6]. - The gross profit margins for these sectors were at historical low levels, indicating a challenging environment [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recovery in oil prices and the ongoing domestic stimulus policies are likely to stabilize demand and improve the supply-demand balance, signaling a potential turning point for the chemical industry cycle by 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is experiencing internal performance divergence in Q1 2025, with the petroleum and basic chemical sectors showing contrasting revenue and profit trends [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - The petroleum chemical sector achieved revenue of 1,015.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1% [1] - The basic chemical sector reported revenue of 607.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petroleum chemical sector was 17.0 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] - The basic chemical sector's net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The decline in oil prices is expected to be the main factor dragging down the performance of the petroleum chemical sector [1] - The growth in the basic chemical sector's performance may be attributed to industry scale expansion and supply disruptions leading to price increases for certain products [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The sales gross margins for the petroleum and basic chemical sectors were 14.3% and 17.9%, respectively, both at historical low levels [1] - The low prosperity in the chemical industry is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and enhance industry self-discipline [1] - With the continued implementation of domestic demand stimulation policies, terminal demand momentum is expected to gradually stabilize, awaiting a bottoming out of the industry prosperity cycle [1]