Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of industry cycle analysis, focusing on companies with high technical barriers and a strong commitment to their core business, particularly in the semiconductor equipment sector [1][6]. Investment Framework - The investment framework consists of three main components: industry cycle (40%-50% weight), competitive barriers (30%-40% weight), and valuation [2][3]. - Industry cycles are categorized into four phases: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline, with a preference for entering during the transition from introduction to growth [2][3]. Competitive Barriers - Competitive barriers include technological barriers and product moats, which are crucial for generating excess returns [3]. - High competitive barriers are linked to company governance, management, core R&D technology, operational efficiency, and foresight in future growth [3]. Valuation Perspective - Valuation has become less significant in the investment framework, especially for technology stocks, where focus should be on product and technological barriers [3]. - High R&D investments during the transition from introduction to growth may not yield immediate financial returns, making high valuation metrics common in this phase [3]. Stock Selection Criteria - Key traits for stock selection include industry position, growth potential, innovation capability, financial health, and management quality [4]. - Companies lacking core technology, overly diversified, or engaged in price wars are avoided [5]. Market Outlook - The semiconductor equipment sector is viewed as a promising investment area, with expected growth driven by demand from large wafer fabs and emerging applications like AI [6][7]. - The recent price increases in memory chips, particularly DRAM, are expected to continue impacting demand, although caution is advised due to potential profit erosion for downstream clients [6][7]. Future Projections - The next three years are anticipated to see strong growth in the storage sector, driven by AI-related demand and a lack of significant capacity growth in recent years [7].

中国证券报：可以分享一下您的投资框架吗？您主要关注哪些方面？ 行业景气周期是排在第一位的，青睐有较高技术壁垒且足够专注于主业的公司，通过左侧布局控制回 撤……近日，南方基金郑晓曦在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，对于科技赛道投资，她会将行业景气 度分析摆在首要位置，更偏好在产业由导入期迈向成长期的转折点进场，长期持有，在成熟期兑现，也 就是投向技术驱动市场渗透率快速提升的阶段。在构建投资组合时，她倾向于选择那些在竞争格局向好 领域里的高技术壁垒企业。展望未来，半导体设备领域是她较为看好的投资方向。 以行业景气度为先 郑晓曦：我的投资框架主要包括行业景气度、企业竞争壁垒、估值这三部分。其中，行业景气周期是我 投资研究框架的重点，如果给一个权重的话，我认为在40%-50%之间。景气周期是非常重要的投资指 标。 中国证券报：基于这三部分构成的投资框架，在实践中，您具体会如何开展投资操作？ 郑晓曦：对于排在第一位的行业景气度来说，从近几十年来的产业变迁看，每一轮重要的产业成长都是 经过四个周期——导入期、成长期、成熟期、衰退期。我希望能在产业由导入期迈向高速增长期的转折 点买入，然后长期持有，一直到它走过高速成长期，进 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The chemical sector has shown positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index by 4.54%, and the CSI 300 by 1.64% during the week. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.49%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.98% [2][14] - Key sub-industries within the chemical sector have experienced varied performance, with membrane materials leading at 7.48% growth, followed by titanium dioxide at 5.85% and chlor-alkali at 4.57% [2][17] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Wanhua Chemical announced a price increase of $200/ton for MDI products in Southeast Asia and South Asia starting December 1, 2025, due to market conditions and supply stability [3] - South Korea raised anti-dumping duties on PET film imports from China, significantly increasing the tax rate on Tianjin Wanhua's products from 3.84% to 36.98% [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with a focus on scarce growth targets. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [4] - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, benefiting upstream material companies. Key players in the panel supply chain include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Light Optoelectronics, and Ruile New Materials [4] - **Phosphate Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector are tightening the supply-demand balance. Recommended companies include Yuntianhua, Chuanheng Co., Xingfa Group, and Batian Co. [5] - **Fluorochemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants is stabilizing profitability, with a focus on companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. [5] - **Economic Recovery**: As the economy improves, leading chemical companies are expected to benefit significantly from price and demand recovery. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [9] - **Vitamin Supply Disruptions**: BASF's supply issues with vitamins A and E are expected to create market imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended for attention [9] Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: Pure MDI prices in East China rose to 19,700 RMB/ton, a 1.55% increase week-on-week, with operating rates stable at 68% [30] - **Tire Industry**: Full steel tire operating rates increased to 63.91%, while semi-steel tire rates decreased to 72.37% [54] - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices rose to 1,679.1 RMB/ton, with operating rates for urea at 86.4% [67][68] - **Vitamins**: Vitamin A prices remained stable at 63 RMB/kg, while Vitamin E prices fell by 2.88% to 50.5 RMB/kg [86][87] - **Fluorochemicals**: Fluorspar prices decreased to 3,350 RMB/ton, with a decline in operating rates to 34.12% [91]

Group 1 - The three major South Korean shipbuilding companies are experiencing a significant increase in hiring, with nearly 4,000 new employees recruited in 2024, marking a 29.4% increase from 2023 and more than double the number from 2022 [2][3] - The largest number of new hires comes from Hanwha Ocean, which recruited 2,122 employees, followed by Samsung Heavy Industries with 1,037, and HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering with 762 [2] - The proportion of "boomerang employees" (those returning to their previous companies) is high, accounting for 66% of the new hires among the three companies [3] Group 2 - HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering reported a revenue of 255,386 billion KRW (approximately 1,340 million RMB) in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and an operating profit of 14,341 billion KRW (approximately 75.2 million RMB), up 408% [3] - Samsung Heavy Industries achieved a revenue of 99,031 billion KRW (approximately 519 million RMB) in 2024, a 23.6% increase, with an operating profit of 5,027 billion KRW (approximately 26.36 million RMB), reflecting a significant growth of 115.5% [4] - Hanwha Ocean's revenue reached 107,760 billion KRW (approximately 565 million RMB) in 2024, a 45.5% increase, and it turned a profit with an operating profit of 2,379 billion KRW (approximately 12.5 million RMB) [4] Group 3 - Despite a projected decline in global new ship orders in the first half of 2025, the South Korean shipbuilding industry maintains a strong order backlog of 33.81 million compensated gross tons (CGT), with an order coverage ratio of approximately 3.2 years [4][5] - Hanwha Ocean has initiated recruitment for new graduates for the second half of 2025, increasing the hiring scale by over 200 to reach 800 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand and a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry cycle [1][3][6]. Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - The capital expenditure of chemical listed companies is projected to decline starting in 2024, resulting in a decrease in fixed asset investment growth for chemical raw materials and products [3]. - The rapid expansion of chemical production capacity is anticipated to conclude by the second half of 2025 [3]. - The exit of outdated production capacity in Europe, driven by high energy costs and frequent uncontrollable events, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances for various chemical products [3]. - China's ongoing "energy conservation and carbon reduction" initiatives are likely to accelerate the elimination and transformation of high-energy-consuming outdated production capacity [3]. Group 2: Demand Side Factors - Favorable policies in China are expected to boost domestic demand for chemical products, with recent initiatives like the trade-in policy for consumer goods driving sales in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - The Chinese government plans to enhance support for large-scale equipment upgrades and expand the variety and scale of trade-in policies by 2025, which is likely to further stimulate domestic chemical product demand [4]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on direct exports of chemical products from China is considered limited, as the proportion of exports to the U.S. is relatively low compared to domestic production [5]. Group 3: Industry Cycle and Performance - In Q1 2025, the chemical industry showed mixed performance, with the petroleum and basic chemical sectors reporting revenues of 1,015.1 billion and 607 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.1% and 6.4% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petroleum and basic chemical sectors was 17 billion and 37.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -23.5% and 4.7% [6]. - The gross profit margins for these sectors were at historical low levels, indicating a challenging environment [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recovery in oil prices and the ongoing domestic stimulus policies are likely to stabilize demand and improve the supply-demand balance, signaling a potential turning point for the chemical industry cycle by 2025 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is experiencing internal performance divergence in Q1 2025, with the petroleum and basic chemical sectors showing contrasting revenue and profit trends [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Performance - The petroleum chemical sector achieved revenue of 1,015.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.1% [1] - The basic chemical sector reported revenue of 607.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petroleum chemical sector was 17.0 billion yuan, down 23.5% year-on-year [1] - The basic chemical sector's net profit attributable to shareholders was 37.1 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7% [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The decline in oil prices is expected to be the main factor dragging down the performance of the petroleum chemical sector [1] - The growth in the basic chemical sector's performance may be attributed to industry scale expansion and supply disruptions leading to price increases for certain products [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The sales gross margins for the petroleum and basic chemical sectors were 14.3% and 17.9%, respectively, both at historical low levels [1] - The low prosperity in the chemical industry is anticipated to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and enhance industry self-discipline [1] - With the continued implementation of domestic demand stimulation policies, terminal demand momentum is expected to gradually stabilize, awaiting a bottoming out of the industry prosperity cycle [1]