1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On August 5, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1182.0, up 6.92%, hitting the daily limit during the session, and two far - month contracts closed at the daily limit. The market sentiment fluctuates due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, the overall mine - end inventory is decreasing, the clean coal inventory is shifting from upstream mines and coal washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises, the cumulative import growth rate has been declining for 3 consecutive months, and the total inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate upward [2]. - On August 5, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1634.5, up 3.16%, and the fifth round of price increase in the spot market was implemented. Affected by high - temperature factors, the power consumption load of the State Grid hit a new high for the third time on August 4. Fundamentally, the raw material inventory has rebounded, the current hot metal output is 242.23 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons, the hot metal output is at a high level, the coal mine inventory is no longer under pressure, and the inventory is shifting downstream. The total coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 45 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM main contract closing price: 1182.00 yuan/ton, up 41.00 yuan; J main contract closing price: 1634.50 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan [2]. - JM futures contract open interest: 804,920.00 lots, up 8,071.00 lots; J futures contract open interest: 52,738.00 lots, up 2,384.00 lots [2]. - Net position of the top 20 JM contracts: - 107,217.00 lots, down 7,376.00 lots; net position of the top 20 J contracts: - 7,202.00 lots, down 3.00 lots [2]. - JM1 - 9 month contract spread: 147.00 yuan/ton, up 11.50 yuan; J1 - 9 month contract spread: 73.50 yuan/ton, up 13.00 yuan [2]. - Coking coal warehouse receipts: 0.00; coke warehouse receipts: 760.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal: 937.00 yuan/ton, up 57.00 yuan; Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke: 1665.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan [2]. - Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR): 143.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Australian imported prime coking coal: 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke: 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced prime coking coal: 1680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke: 1470.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. - Shanxi Jinzhong Lingshi medium - sulfur prime coking coal: 1400.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai - produced coking coal ex - factory price: 1100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - JM main contract basis: 218.00 yuan/ton, down 41.00 yuan; J main contract basis: 30.50 yuan/ton, up 35.50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 2.771 billion tons, down 154,300 tons; clean coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 1.6639 billion tons, down 92,300 tons [2]. - Operating rate of 110 coal washing plants (weekly): 61.51%, down 0.80 percentage points; raw coal output (monthly): 42.1074 billion tons, up 1.779 billion tons [2]. - Coal and lignite imports (monthly): 3.304 billion tons, down 300,000 tons; daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines: 193,600 tons, down 1,200 tons [2]. - Imported coking coal inventory at 16 ports (weekly): 4.9394 billion tons, down 181,000 tons; coke inventory at 18 ports (weekly): 2.709 billion tons, up 205,700 tons [2]. - Total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 9.9273 billion tons, up 73,500 tons; total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 736,200 tons, down 65,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 8.0379 billion tons, up 42,800 tons; coke inventory of 247 steel mills nationwide (weekly): 6.2669 billion tons, down 132,900 tons [2]. - Available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (weekly): 12.87 days, up 0.12 days; available days of coke for 247 steel mills (weekly): 11.17 days, down 0.28 days [2]. - Coking coal imports (monthly): 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; coke and semi - coke exports (monthly): 510,000 tons, down 170,000 tons [2]. - Coking coal output (monthly): 4.06438 billion tons, down 5,890 tons; coke output (monthly): 4.1703 billion tons, down 67,300 tons [2]. - Capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises (weekly): 73.69%, up 0.24 percentage points; profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants (weekly): - 54.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 83.48%, unchanged; blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly): 90.22%, down 0.56 percentage points [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly): 8.3184 billion tons, down 336,100 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The peak - season market of the container shipping market has not arrived, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has declined for 8 consecutive weeks. As of August 1, the SCFI index dropped 41.85 points to 1550.74 points, a weekly decline of 2.62% [2]. - Trump threatened to significantly increase tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, causing Indian ETFs listed in the US to turn down. The EU will suspend trade counter - measures against the US for 6 months. Switzerland is facing a "negotiation race" to reduce tariffs by 39%, and Swiss gold trade has become the focus of Trump's tariff policy [2]. - Trump will select a new Fed governor in the "next few days" and announce a new director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in three to four days [2]. - The China Federation of Machinery Industry stated that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will soon issue a work plan for stabilizing growth in industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment [2].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Shanghai Lead Industry Daily Report 2025-07-23 [2] - **Report Date**: July 23, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to the drop in lead prices. Although the current operating rate of primary lead is relatively strong compared to secondary lead and the by - product revenue is stable, the supply of secondary lead is tight because of the shortage of scrap battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow. If the tight supply of scrap batteries is not alleviated, the output of secondary lead will be difficult to increase significantly, which will continue to restrict the overall lead supply increment. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual situation is that the downstream is still waiting and watching, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. The overseas inventory of lead is rising, and the domestic inventory is rising slightly, with the warehouse receipts increasing and the overall demand slowing down. The overall impact from the perspective of lead concentrate processing is limited. The Shanghai lead price continues to fluctuate slightly, and the operation suggestion is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,015 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots [3]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. - **Basis and Premiums**: The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.97 dollars/ton, down 1.77 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3]. - **Prices and Imports**: The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - **Imports and Exports**: The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - **Other Indicators**: The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3]. 3.5下游情况 - **Consumption - related Output**: The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 0.073 million [3]. - **Industry Index**: The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other electrical appliances is 1,777.24 points, up 12.6 points [3]. 3.6行业消息 - **Tariffs**: The US Treasury Secretary said August 1st is a "relatively hard deadline" for all countries, and the EU trade negotiation is separate from the Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiation. Japan's negotiation is progressing smoothly. Canada is still considering the electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid being fully taxed by the US. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines will open its market to the US and implement zero - tariff [3]. - **White House vs. Fed**: The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and that there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can do so [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The soda ash market is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but there is still inventory accumulation. The future demand side is bearish, and the overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk trend is strongly volatile following the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish due to the supply - demand contradiction [8][9]. - The glass market faces pressure from high inventory and slow capacity reduction. The downstream real estate has not improved substantially. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **July 21 Market Data**: The main futures contract SA509 opened high and closed high, with a closing price of 1,295 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan/ton or 5.62%, and a daily reduction of 297,887 lots in positions [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In the week of July 17, the weekly output was 733,200 tons, a 3.42% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 84.10%, a 2.78% increase. The enterprise shipment volume was 691,000 tons, a 5.48% increase. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1.9056 million tons, a 2.26% increase, with high - level inventory and a slowdown in growth [8]. - **Analysis**: Summer maintenance device recovery led to increased production and inventory accumulation. The demand side is bearish due to the expected reduction in photovoltaic glass production. The overall oversupply pattern suppresses prices. The short - term disk follows the overall commodity trend, and the long - term is bearish [9]. Glass - **Supply**: Affected by the planned production reduction of photovoltaic glass enterprises, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has decreased, and the supply of float glass has also declined, increasing inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the slow capacity reduction process may lead to further inventory accumulation [10][11]. - **Downstream**: The domestic real estate completion link has not improved substantially, and the downward trend continues [11]. - **Analysis**: The anti - involution policy expectation has strengthened market confidence. The short - term disk trend is strong, and the follow - up needs to focus on policy implementation [11]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides charts of soda ash and glass active contract price trends, soda ash weekly output, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass output, with data sources including Wind and iFind [13][16][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **成材**: Expected to be in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with the price center of gravity moving downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern and pessimistic market sentiment. The winter storage this year is lackluster, providing limited price support. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [2][3]. - **铝锭**: The price is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Although the inventory shows repeated trends during the off - season, short - term domestic policies have significantly boosted the price of industrial metals. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **成材** - **Production Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou regional short - process construction steel enterprises will have a total impact on construction steel production of 741,000 tons during the Spring Festival shutdown. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has stopped production on January 5, and most of the others will stop around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons [2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - **Price Trend**: Yesterday, the price continued to oscillate downward, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage is lackluster, with limited price support [2][3]. **铝锭** - **Macro Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries, including non - ferrous metals. Domestic "anti - involution" policies have driven up the price of industrial metals [2]. - **Alumina Market**: On July 17, Guinea revoked the licenses of 6 bauxite enterprises, but they are long - idle mining rights. Short - term domestic macro policies have significantly boosted the price of alumina. The demand in the southwest region has increased due to the upcoming commissioning of some electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement projects, while some enterprises will start maintenance in late July, which may tighten the supply. Nationally, the supply of alumina is relatively loose, and the weekly inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants has increased by about 25,800 tons, which may put pressure on the spot price [3]. - **Aluminum Ingot Inventory**: On July 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 498,000 tons, with a complex change compared to last week. The reduction in aluminum rod production has led to an expected decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum in July, an increase in ingot casting volume, and an obvious increase in supply, but the inventory performance is still repeated [3].