近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。期货日报记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结 果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步巩固了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth rate cut this year, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy despite rising inflation risks [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Central Bank of Russia has reduced the benchmark interest rate from 20% in June to 16.5% in October, with previous cuts in July (to 18%) and September (to 17%) [1] - This marks the beginning of a monetary easing cycle after nearly three years of maintaining higher rates [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Central Bank stated that the Russian economy is returning to a balanced growth trajectory, with an acceleration in loan growth observed in recent months [1] - However, inflation expectations remain high, and the Central Bank has noted an increase in inflation risks [1] - The GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [1]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar is currently trading around 1.17, with a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous closing price of 1.1811 [1] - Credit Suisse anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in December, acknowledging risks of reduced easing policies and an early end to the monetary easing cycle [1] - Economist David Meier from Credit Suisse maintains that the ECB's next rate cut is expected in December, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated [1] Group 2 - The euro against the US dollar experienced a rebound from the 1.1725 area but faced resistance around 1.1800, indicating weakened upward momentum [2] - The immediate support level for the euro against the US dollar is at the trend line extending from the September 2 low, currently around 1.1730 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below this support level, it may further decline to the September 12 low of 1.1700 and the September 11 low of 1.1660 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut marks the end of a prolonged period of monetary policy stagnation, raising questions about market reactions and investment strategies moving forward [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Fed's Rate Cut - Investors are speculating on how the market will respond to the restart of the easing cycle, with some betting on further gains in risk assets [1]. - Société Générale has increased its recommended equity allocation from 44% to 50% while reducing cash holdings from 10% to 5%, indicating a bullish outlook on risk assets [1]. - Historical data shows that U.S. equities typically deliver strong returns immediately following the first rate cut and continue to perform well over the next 12 to 24 months [1]. Group 2: Sector Rotation and Investment Strategies - The Fed's rate cut is expected to drive sector rotation, with funds moving from defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare to high-risk growth sectors such as technology and consumer discretionary [3]. - In the early stages of a rate cut cycle, defensive sectors tend to perform better, but as the policy effects materialize, growth and cyclical sectors are likely to take the lead [3]. - High-growth sectors, particularly communication services and consumer discretionary, have shown significant gains this year, with increases of 27.4% and 17.6% respectively [3]. Group 3: Small-Cap Stocks as Beneficiaries - Small-cap stocks are gaining attention as potential beneficiaries of the Fed's rate cut, with the Russell 2000 index rising nearly 10.5% this quarter, outperforming major large-cap indices [4]. - Small-cap stocks, which are sensitive to interest rate changes, still have upside potential despite recent rebounds, as their valuations remain relatively low compared to large-cap stocks [4]. - The future performance of small-cap stocks is contingent on the Fed's signaling regarding further rate cuts, which could support their upward momentum [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut in nearly a year may signal the end of a prolonged pause in monetary policy, raising questions about market reactions and implications for investment portfolios [1] Group 1 - The easing cycle's resumption is a significant focus for investors, as it may influence market dynamics and investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index has fallen below the 97 mark, reaching a two-month low, driven by market expectations of an impending monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - As of September 16, the dollar index was recorded at 96.9887, down by 0.3683, reflecting a decrease of 0.3783% [2]. - The futures market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, with a nearly 70% probability of two additional rate cuts by the end of the year [3]. - Analysts suggest that the dollar index remains weak, having declined nearly 11% year-to-date, indicating expectations for accelerated policy easing and improved risk appetite [3]. Group 2: Implications for Chinese Assets - The Federal Reserve's rate cut may alleviate external constraints on China's monetary policy [4]. - A weaker dollar could lead to a depreciation of the dollar against the yuan, which has fallen from around 7.3 to approximately 7.1 since the beginning of 2025, potentially impacting export-oriented and overseas enterprises [4]. - The Fed's rate cuts are likely to promote global liquidity, benefiting Chinese assets amid a backdrop of global monetary system restructuring [4].

Core Insights - The expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has boosted Wall Street, leading to a second consecutive week of gains for major stock indices [1] - Despite concerns over President Trump's tariff policies potentially increasing price pressures, recent weakness in the U.S. labor market has fueled hopes for a shift in monetary policy next month [1] - Nearly $9 billion has flowed back into U.S. stock funds over the past week, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1] - A recent survey by Bank of America reveals that valuation concerns are a significant factor for fund managers regarding potential market corrections [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Polish central bank's monetary policy committee member Dabrowski indicated that the easing cycle may begin in October or November [1] Group 1 - The potential start of the easing cycle suggests a shift in monetary policy aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] - The timing of the easing cycle is significant as it may impact market expectations and investor sentiment in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major banks in China are withdrawing long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs), indicating a significant market adjustment with interest rates dropping to the "1" range [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Changes - Several large and medium-sized banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, and China Merchants Bank, have completely removed five-year large-denomination CDs from their offerings [2] - The majority of banks now primarily offer large-denomination CDs with a maximum term of two years, with three-year products becoming increasingly scarce [2][3] - Interest rates for large-denomination CDs have significantly decreased, with rates for two-year products generally ranging from 0.9% to 1.4%, and three-year products hovering between 1.55% and 1.75% [2] Group 2: Bank Strategies - Banks are withdrawing long-term large-denomination CDs to avoid high-cost deposits and reduce interest payment costs, reflecting a structural shift in response to monetary policy [3] - The trend indicates a move towards a shorter-term deposit structure, which may become the norm, impacting both banks and depositors [3] - This shift is expected to alleviate net interest margin pressures for banks while increasing the need for effective liquidity management [3] Group 3: Implications for Depositors - The exit of long-term large-denomination CDs will reshape traditional conservative investment paths for depositors [4] - Depositors are encouraged to explore alternative products such as government bonds, cash management products, money market funds, fixed-income products, and insurance products [4] - Future trends suggest a normalization of declining interest rates and a reduced reliance on long-term high-interest liabilities, with banks potentially offering differentiated interest rates through mechanisms like "white lists" [4] Group 4: Innovation and Service Upgrades - Banks are encouraged to innovate in product offerings, such as introducing "principal-protected + floating return" structured deposits to balance safety and yield [5] - There is a push for integrated wealth management services, creating one-stop accounts that combine deposits and investments to enhance service efficiency [5] - Banks should focus on digital transformation to improve service efficiency and reduce operational costs [5]