Group 1: Sports Industry Development - The State Council issued 20 measures to unleash the potential of sports consumption, aiming to cultivate world-class sports enterprises and events by 2030, with the industry scale exceeding 70 trillion yuan [1] - The measures include expanding sports product supply, stimulating consumer demand, and supporting the listing of qualified sports enterprises, along with financial support policies like loan interest subsidies and sports consumption vouchers [1][2] Group 2: Social Security Fund and Tax Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced tax exemptions for state-owned equity and cash income transferred to the social security fund, effective from April 1, 2024 [3] - This policy aims to enhance pension reserves and promote the efficient operation of the social security fund, potentially boosting consumer confidence and economic circulation [4] Group 3: Real Estate Market in Shenzhen - Shenzhen has relaxed housing purchase restrictions in eight districts, allowing eligible residents to buy an unlimited number of homes, while non-residents can purchase up to two [5][6] - The adjustment of housing loan policies, including the removal of distinctions between first and second home loan rates, is expected to stimulate the real estate market [5][6] Group 4: Banking Sector Performance - Agricultural Bank of China surpassed Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in total market capitalization, reaching 2.55 trillion yuan, driven by a 47% increase in stock price this year [8] - The bank's strong performance is attributed to its stable dividends and positive net profit growth, making it a leading stock among banks [8] Group 5: U.S. Employment Data - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly four years, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000 in August, significantly below expectations [9][10] - This trend indicates a weakening labor market, leading to heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [10] Group 6: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold surpassing $3,600 per ounce, driven by weak U.S. employment data and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [11] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings, supporting long-term demand for gold [11] Group 7: IPO Activity in Robotics Sector - Yushu Technology plans to submit its IPO application between October and December, with a market valuation estimated between 50 billion to 100 billion yuan [12] - The company has completed multiple funding rounds, indicating strong investor interest in the robotics sector, which is seen as a hot investment area despite challenges in commercialization and technology [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has paused its government bond trading operations since January 2025, leading to market speculation about when these operations will resume, especially after a significant liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan through net bond purchases from August to December 2024 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Expectations - Following the announcement of the joint meeting between the Ministry of Finance and the PBOC, the bond futures market reacted positively, with significant increases in various contract maturities [1]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment is more suitable for the resumption of bond purchases compared to the previous year, indicating a gradual increase in the probability of resumption [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Policy Coordination - The PBOC's bond trading operations are primarily aimed at liquidity management, and the recent discussions emphasize the need for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to support economic growth [6][7]. - The joint working group aims to enhance cooperation between fiscal and monetary policies, which is crucial for addressing the current complex market conditions and promoting economic recovery [8][9]. Group 3: Future Projections and Impacts - Analysts predict that the resumption of bond trading operations could occur in the fourth quarter of 2025, coinciding with significant economic data releases and government meetings [4][10]. - The anticipated resumption of operations may restore the balance of 1 trillion yuan, with short-term bonds likely becoming the primary focus of these operations [4][10]. - The emphasis on liquidity management through bond trading is expected to stabilize the bond market and mitigate the impact of government bond supply on liquidity [10][11].

此时央行买入国债对收益率的下行压力会明显弱于去年，当前市场环境已较为适宜操作重启。 央行国债买卖操作定位于基础货币投放渠道和流动性管理工具，于2024年8月正式推出。2024年8月至12 月，央行通过公开市场开展的国债买卖操作累计实现净买入1万亿元，为债券市场流动性调节和稳定运 行提供重要支撑。 继去年8〜12月连续5个月净买入国债释放万亿流动性后，中国人民银行自2025年1月起暂停的"国债买卖 操作"何时重启，持续引发关注。 中国人民银行官网9月3日晚发布消息，财政部与中国人民银行联合工作组近日召开第二次组长会议，就 金融市场运行、政府债券发行管理、央行国债买卖操作和完善离岸人民币国债发行机制等议题进行了深 入研讨。 具体而言，2024年8月、9月、10月、11月和12月，央行净买入债券面值分别为1000亿元、2000亿元、 2000亿元、2000亿元和3000亿元。 但自2025年1月起，该操作进入阶段性暂停状态。截至第二次组长会议召开时，"空窗期"已长达8个月。 其中，"国债买卖操作"被纳入研讨范围，点燃了市场对于"人民银行何时重启国债买卖"的关注。这一操 作已暂停8个月之久，过去数月的话题热度一直居高 ...

证券研究报告 固收点评报告 / 2025.09.04 核心观点 至于债券市场，去年会议后利率先见顶震荡、后快速下滑，这一走势不一定具备可参 考性，但从本次会议传递的信息来看，对债市至少是利好，流动性可以更加乐观，债 市利率的"顶"更加清晰，无论是一级发行还是二级交易，都被注入了更多"内在稳 定性"， 我们继续看好 1.75%/2.0%左右的 10 年国债/30 年国债。 此外，会议强调金融市场运行，可能也意指股市稳定性，因此未来货币更宽松、财政 更积极，股债可以双牛。 利率 | 财政和央行工作组会议提前召开？ 但会议总体基调确实对债券更有利，我们继续看好 1.75%/2.0%附近的 10 年期国债 /30 年国债。货币财政协同性提升对流动性表现偏利好，也有助于降低后续的债券供 给冲击，债市更不需要担心大幅调整，叠加"买卖国债预期升温"或给债市一定修复 契机，我们建议把握左侧机会。 ❖ 风险提示：对政策理解不透彻；经济表现可能超预期；市场走势存在不确定性 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ 分析师 孙彬彬 SAC 证书编号：S0160525020001 sunbb@ctsec.com 分析师 隋修平 SAC 证书编号： ...