来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月15日｜淡水泉(香港)总裁兼首席经济学家陶冬近日指出，当前已进入"资产为王"的时代，两 大方向值得关注：一是远离(海外)央行控制的资产，二是紧跟科技突破浪潮。对于美联储的政策动向， 他指出，长远来看货币政策仍将以宽松为主，美国政府大规模支出形成巨大财政赤字，海外资金回流本 土债市，美联储必须为财政兜底，货币政策和财政政策本就是同一枚硬币的两面。陶冬强调，现阶段黄 金"只会买贵不会买错"，除了黄金、白银外，铜在人工智能(AI)与电网建设中同样面临结构性需求，若 铜价持续高企，铝也可能成为AI基建中的替代金属，并成为国家战略储备中的一部分。整体来看，贵 金属与有色金属板块具备长期配置的价值。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global economy in 2026 is expected to experience significant differentiation, with geopolitical and economic uncertainties likely easing compared to 2025, while the logic of liquidity driving asset prices upward remains valid [1][4]. Economic Trends - The current economic landscape is characterized by a "K-shaped" development, where the disparity between GDP growth and the average citizen's living experience is stark, particularly in the U.S. [2][3]. - AI investments have surged, accounting for over 50% of total investments in the U.S., while other sectors are lagging and require new credit cycles to stimulate growth [2][6]. - The consumer market reflects similar disparities, with the top 10% of income earners capturing approximately 25% of stock market gains, while the lowest 10% are largely excluded from stock market benefits [2]. Political Implications - Economic disparities are translating into significant political changes globally, with moderate centrist influences declining and political polarization increasing [3]. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is facing pressure to adjust its monetary policy due to rising wealth inequality, with potential leadership changes expected to lead to a more responsive approach to fiscal demands [4][5]. - The structure of the global bond market is changing, with rising long-term interest rates in Japan and Europe prompting a return of overseas funds to seek higher returns, impacting U.S. Treasury demand [5]. AI Investment Landscape - 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for AI, transitioning from a focus on technological competition to a demand for profitability and sustainable business models [6][7]. - The financing landscape for AI companies is shifting, with some turning to bond markets and private credit, raising concerns about transparency and potential systemic risks [7][8]. Asset Allocation Strategies - The liquidity-driven asset price revaluation seen in 2025 is expected to continue into 2026, with a strong outlook for the Chinese yuan due to substantial trade surpluses [9][10]. - Precious metals are projected to remain attractive due to their independence from central bank policies and increasing industrial demand driven by technological revolutions [9]. - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are likely to outperform U.S. stocks in 2026, attributed to valuation disparities and a low-interest-rate environment in China [10].

Core Viewpoint - The global economy is entering a delicate phase in 2026, characterized by asset inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on the concept of "asset supremacy" as a survival strategy [4][14]. Economic Trends - The current global economic shape is described as "K-shaped," indicating a divergence where high-income groups benefit from asset markets while low-income groups face rising living costs, leading to a "no job growth" scenario despite strong macroeconomic indicators [5][6]. - This K-shaped development is expected to deepen in 2026, with political extremism becoming normalized as economic growth fails to benefit the lower strata of society [6]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to undergo significant leadership changes in 2026, which may lead to a shift in policy thinking, particularly under political pressure for lower interest rates [7][8]. - There is a possibility that the Fed may maintain or even restart quantitative easing to address fiscal deficits and prevent a bond market collapse, indicating a departure from traditional monetary policy [8]. AI Sector Insights - The AI sector is at a critical juncture, with concerns about overinvestment and the sustainability of business models. A significant adjustment in the AI industry is likely in 2026, transitioning from a focus on high-level infrastructure to practical applications [9][10]. - The differences in AI development paths between the U.S. and China are notable, with the U.S. focusing on stock market-driven models and China leveraging government support for open-source applications [10]. Fiscal Capitalism Observations - The global economy is shifting towards "fiscal capitalism," where government fiscal outputs drive economic activity, leading to excessive credit issuance and a loss of trust in fiat currencies, as evidenced by the rise in gold and silver prices [11]. - Commodities like gold and silver are expected to maintain their value due to structural long-term trends, with silver benefiting from industrial demand linked to AI and data center construction [11]. Geopolitical Landscape - Geopolitical risks are expected to shift rather than diminish, with a focus on "Western Hemisphereism" under Trump's potential return to power, which may lead to a reconfiguration of U.S. foreign policy and energy strategies [12]. Investment Strategy - The overarching investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes the importance of holding "hard currencies" and core assets that can withstand credit risks and technological cycles, as traditional savings may not keep pace with inflation [14].

Group 1 - The core debate in wealth management for 2024 revolves around whether to prioritize cash or diversify into assets, with individuals like Aunt Li facing dilemmas in their investment strategies [1][3] - The macroeconomic environment in 2024 is prompting a reevaluation of wealth management strategies among the public, emphasizing the need for personalized approaches based on individual circumstances [3][5] Group 2 - Cash is highlighted for its liquidity and stability, with data showing that as of 2024, household savings in China reached 143.8 trillion yuan, growing at a rate of 7.8% [5][6] - The potential income from cash holdings is illustrated, with a million yuan yielding 32,000 yuan in interest at a 3.2% annual rate, emphasizing the low risk of capital loss [5][6] - However, inflation poses a risk to cash's purchasing power, with the CPI increase at 2.4% in 2024, indicating a gradual erosion of cash value [6] Group 3 - Asset allocation is presented as a strategy to combat inflation and enhance value, with historical data showing that stocks, real estate, and gold have outperformed inflation over the past decade [7][8] - Real estate, despite recent price adjustments, has an average annual growth rate of 8.7% over the last twenty years, indicating its long-term investment value [8] - The stock market shows significant variability, with some stocks reaching new highs while others decline, underscoring the importance of stock selection and long-term investment [8] Group 4 - Gold has performed well in 2024, with prices rising from $2,000 to $2,180 per ounce, a 9% increase, reflecting its status as a safe-haven asset amid economic uncertainty [8] - The mutual fund industry has grown significantly, with total public fund assets reaching 28.7 trillion yuan by 2024, providing diverse investment options for ordinary investors [10] Group 5 - Different age groups exhibit distinct preferences for cash versus assets, with younger individuals favoring higher-risk investments, while older individuals tend to prefer cash and low-risk products [11] - Income levels also influence asset allocation strategies, with higher-income individuals diversifying more, while lower-income households tend to hold more cash [11] Group 6 - A recommended "core-satellite" investment strategy suggests maintaining 6 to 12 months of living expenses in cash while diversifying the rest into stocks, funds, and real estate [12] - The "100 minus age" rule is proposed as a guideline for asset allocation, adjusting the proportion of risk assets based on age [12] Group 7 - Investment knowledge and experience are crucial, with a recommendation for those less familiar with investing to maintain a higher cash ratio while gradually increasing asset allocation [13] - Market timing is emphasized, suggesting that increasing asset allocation during downturns and cash during booms can yield better returns [13] Group 8 - Liquidity needs, tax implications, and inflation expectations are critical factors in asset allocation decisions, with a focus on maintaining sufficient cash for upcoming large expenses [14] - Economic cycles should inform investment strategies, with risk assets performing well in expansion periods and cash becoming more valuable during contractions [14] Group 9 - Policy changes can significantly impact asset performance, necessitating regular reviews and adjustments to investment strategies based on evolving regulations [15] - Personal circumstances, such as income changes or health issues, should prompt reassessment of asset allocation [15] Group 10 - Successful wealth management often involves a combination of clear financial goals, reasonable asset allocation, and a commitment to continuous learning [16] - Technological advancements are transforming wealth management, making it more accessible and efficient [16] Group 11 - Investing in education and health is increasingly recognized as vital, with returns on knowledge investments potentially surpassing traditional financial assets [17] - Building and maintaining a strong social network can also yield unexpected opportunities and benefits [17] Group 12 - The most effective wealth managers adapt their strategies flexibly to changing environments, avoiding extremes of cash hoarding or asset liquidation [18] - Diversification is a key principle, with recommendations against concentrating investments in a single asset type [18] Group 13 - A practical investment strategy for Aunt Li involves allocating 200,000 yuan in cash for emergencies, 200,000 yuan in stable mixed funds, and 100,000 yuan in gold ETFs, balancing liquidity and growth potential [19] - This gradual approach to investing is encouraged as a learning process, emphasizing the importance of patience and strategy refinement over time [19]