证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 超长债周报 超长债收益率小幅上行 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周税期资金面偏紧，A 股大跌，债市窄幅震荡收益率略微 上行，超长债小跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投 非常活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走平，品种利差缩窄。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 11 月 21 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 34BP，处于 历史较低水平。从国内经济数据来看，10 月经济下行压力继续增加。我 们测算的 10 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.2%，增速较 9 月回落 1.1%。通胀 方面，10 月 CPI 为 0.2%，PPI 为-2.1%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，当 前债市反弹概率更大。一方面，去年四季度以来的经济企稳，主要来自 于中央加杠杆的托底。考虑到今年四季度增发国债的概率较低，预计四 季度政府债券融资增速继续回落，四季度国内经济依然承压。另一方面， 央行恢复国债买卖，年底投资者抢跑开门红，投资者情绪较好。考虑到 30-10 利差仍在偏高水平，预计伴随债市的反弹，30-10 利差会阶段性 压缩。 20 年国开债：截至 11 月 2 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spread of ultra-long bonds has reached a new high. The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise, the primary issuance has stopped, and the secondary market has shown weak performance. Due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise. During the week of September 29 - September 30, 2025, the bond market sentiment remained weak, and the interest rate center of stock ultra-long credit bonds further increased. Compared with the previous week, the number of stock ultra-long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 [2][11][12] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - There was no issuance of ultra-long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The decline of the ultra-long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. This week, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra-long credit bond index still led the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% month - on - month [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds was under pressure. Within two trading days this week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years was 62, and the trend of weakening liquidity continued. In terms of long - bond pricing, the yield and spread of ultra-long credit bonds both increased in the latest week. The increase in the transaction yield of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was at the forefront, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra-long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a maturity of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of long - term bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of the investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra-long credit bonds. Concerns about controlling duration risk and the liquidity flaws of the varieties still affected the allocation behavior of trading desks. The purchasing power of institutions such as insurance and wealth management was limited, and the allocation desks had not formed effective support. It was difficult to reverse the adjustment trend of ultra-long credit bonds in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra-long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities rose to a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around 10 years widened to a new high this year. Looking forward, although the coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is apparent after the adjustment, due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [4][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield spread of ultra - long bonds has reached a new high. The adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the duration strategy needs to be cautious [4][34] - Although the coupon advantage of ultra - long credit bonds is apparent after adjustment, due to the lack of incremental funds and the weak market sentiment, investors should be prudent in adopting the duration strategy [4][34] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1存量市场特征 - The yield center of ultra - long credit bonds has been continuously rising. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the interest rate center of existing ultra - long credit bonds further increased. The number of existing ultra - long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 compared to the previous week [2][12] 3.2一级发行情况 - There was no issuance of ultra - long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3.3二级成交表现 - The decline of the ultra - long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. From September 29 to 30, 2025, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra - long credit bond index continued to lead the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a term of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% week - on - week [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra - long credit bonds was under pressure. In two trading days of the week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a term of over 7 years was 62, indicating a weakening trend. The yield and spread of ultra - long credit bonds both increased, and the spread between general credit bonds with a term of over 10 years and 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra - long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a term of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of bonds with a term of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra - long credit bonds. Concerns about duration risk and liquidity flaws affected the allocation decisions of trading desks. The support from insurance and wealth - management institutions was limited, and the adjustment trend of ultra - long credit bonds was difficult to reverse in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra - long credit bonds of each term and treasury bonds of similar terms reached a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around the 10 - year term reached a new high for the year [34]