Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) Liaoning Branch focuses on supporting the real economy and enhancing cross-border trade and investment facilitation to provide strong financial support for high-quality foreign economic development [1] - In the first half of the year, foreign-related enterprises utilized RMB foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks amounting to 3.22 billion USD, with a foreign exchange hedging ratio of 22.3% and 97 new enterprises engaging in exchange rate hedging for the first time [1] - The cross-border financial service platform has seen 7 banks assist 26 enterprises in conducting RMB foreign exchange derivative transactions, with a total signed amount of 130 million USD, improving the efficiency of these transactions [1] Group 2 - The SAFE Liaoning Branch promotes banks to provide foreign exchange settlement and related fund payment services for cross-border e-commerce enterprises, enhancing the convenience of foreign exchange settlements in this new trade format [2] - In the first half of the year, 17 direct export cross-border e-commerce transactions were processed, totaling 31,180 USD [2] - The branch has established 5 demonstration zones for payment services for foreign visitors, with 2,046 bank outlets and 53 authorized currency exchange institutions available to meet various cash exchange needs [2]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations in the first half of the year [1] - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds for non-bank sectors was $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend observed since the second half of last year [1] Group 2 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has made significant progress in promoting the facilitation of cross-border trade and investment, with over $700 billion in related facilitation business processed nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 11% [2] - The number of banks participating in foreign exchange business reform has reached 22, with over 20,000 clients classified as primary clients, an increase of 23% from the end of last year [2] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion and a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [2] Group 3 - The SAFE has expanded cross-border trade facilitation policy trials to more free trade zones, including support for banks to optimize international trade settlement and simplify business processes [3] - New policies to enhance cross-border investment and financing have been introduced, including direct management of foreign debt registration by banks and shared foreign debt quotas for financing leasing companies [3] Group 4 - Economic high-quality development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market are expected to support the continued stable operation of China's foreign exchange market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is actively working to mitigate external shock risks and maintain a stable and healthy foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the flexibility of the Renminbi exchange rate [1] - The agency is focused on optimizing foreign exchange policy supply and deepening reforms and opening up in the foreign exchange sector [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Facilitation - SAFE aims to enhance the convenience of cross-border trade and investment financing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Market - The LPR quote remains unchanged, and the market shows a mixed performance. The economic data in March exceeded expectations, but the market is concerned about future data weakness. The micro - liquidity shows signs of state - owned capital support, but market sentiment is still cautious [4]. - In the bond market, there is a certain degree of stalemate. The ultra - long - end bonds can be moderately optimistic, and the short - term bonds are weak. The market needs a significant event to confirm the trend [4]. 2.2 Commodity Futures - **Equity - related Futures**: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines in the stock index futures market [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about orders and demand. The impact of US tariffs and the supply - demand situation in the international market also affect cotton prices [6]. - Sugar: The sugar price shows a volatile trend due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain demand - supply gap [7][8]. - Oils and Fats: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices, but be aware of policy, weather, and soybean arrival risks [9]. - Eggs: Expect egg futures to be weak and volatile, and operate with a short - term bearish view [10]. - Apples: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices [10]. - Red Dates: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [10]. - Livestock: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract of live hogs [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The oil price rebounds and then falls back. In the long - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [12]. - Fuel Oil: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate, and the market's reaction to the trade war and risk release will affect it [13]. - Plastics: L is expected to be weak and volatile. For PP, consider a long position in the near - month contract and a short position in the far - month contract after a correction [14]. - Rubber: The short - term disk is expected to be in a low - level shock, and pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR spread widening after NR04 delivery [15]. - Methanol: It is expected to be weak and volatile due to weak supply - demand and increasing imports [16]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash is expected to be weak and volatile, and glass may face a decline risk. Consider the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash [16]. - Asphalt: The price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan, and the market's reaction to the trade war is the main factor [16][17]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: It follows the crude oil price in the short - term and may decline in the long - term due to supply - demand changes [18]. - Paper Pulp: The short - term is in a shock due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and inventory changes [18][19]. - Urea: Keep a long - term bullish view on the UR09 contract after a significant decline, but be cautious in the short - term [20]. - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to shorting opportunities after a rebound due to weak raw material expectations [21]. - **Metals**: - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and alumina is expected to be in a bottom - range shock and can be bought at low prices [23]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, and polysilicon is expected to have limited upward space in the 06 contract and downward pressure in the 07 contract [24][25]. - Iron and Steel and Ore: The short - term is expected to be volatile, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak. The cost provides some support [26][27][28]. - Coal and Coke: They are expected to be weak in the short - term without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports [28][29]. - Ferroalloys: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and be bearish on ferromanganese in the medium - term but do not chase short [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The 1 - year LPR is 3.1%, and the 5 - year LPR is 3.6%, remaining unchanged for 6 consecutive months [4]. - The Chinese government promotes the opening of the futures market and expands the scope of specific varieties [4]. - Ningde Times releases the second - generation Shenxing super - charging battery [4]. - The US economic and financial markets are affected by "reciprocal tariffs", and the global financial market is volatile [4]. - China promotes the expansion of service industry opening - up pilot projects [4]. - The expected interest rate of ordinary personal insurance products may be adjusted [4]. - The US may shrink its activities in Africa [4]. - The US economy is affected by "reciprocal tariffs", and the stock market continues to fall [4]. 3.2 Futures Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be moderately optimistic about the ultra - long - end bonds [4]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Take profit on long positions in the far - month contracts [4][5]. 3.3 Commodity Market Analysis - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is under pressure due to weak demand and the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand situation in the international market also affects it [6]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is volatile due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand - supply gap [7][8]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil is affected by seasonal production increase and other factors, and the soybean meal supply may increase in the future [9][10]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be weak due to increasing supply and weakening demand [10]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in the near - term due to low inventory and good sales [10]. - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand [10]. - **Livestock**: The hog price may be weak due to increasing supply and weakening demand [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the oil price and is affected by the market's reaction to the trade war [13]. - **Plastics**: The L is expected to be weak, and the PP has different trends in the near - month and far - month contracts [14]. - **Rubber**: The short - term disk is expected to be in a shock, and pay attention to the spread opportunity [15]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weak due to weak supply - demand and increasing imports [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is weak, and glass may decline. Consider spread trading [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price is in a range and is affected by the oil price and the trade war [16][17]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It follows the oil price in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [18]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term is in a shock due to weak demand and high inventory [18][19]. - **Urea**: Keep a long - term bullish view on the UR09 contract after a decline [20]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short after a rebound due to weak raw material expectations [21]. - **Metals**: - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is slightly bullish, and alumina is in a bottom - range shock [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is bearish, and polysilicon has limited upward space [24][25]. - **Iron and Steel and Ore**: The short - term is volatile, and the medium - long - term is weak. The cost provides support [26][27][28]. - **Coal and Coke**: They are weak in the short - term without production cuts or reduced imports [28][29]. - **Ferroalloys**: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and be bearish on ferromanganese in the medium - term [30].