9月末山东社会融资规模达25.6万亿元 金融总量实现同比多增 融资成本处于历史低位 10月27日，记者从中国人民银行山东省分行召开的新闻发布会上获悉，前三季度，山东融资总量合 理增长、结构持续优化、成本不断下降、质效明显提升，为全省经济稳健向好、进中提质营造良好的货 币金融环境。 制造业中长期贷款余额同比增长11.6% 前三季度，山东金融总量实现同比多增。 9月末，全省社会融资规模、本外币贷款和本外币存款余额分别为25.6万亿元、16.2万亿元和18.7万 亿元，同比分别增长9.6%、8.5%和9.0%。前三季度，社会融资规模、贷款和存款分别增加1.8万亿元、 1.1万亿元和1.3万亿元，同比分别多增301亿元、180亿元和1519亿元。 今年以来，我省贷款规模保持合理增长。中国人民银行山东省分行充分发挥货币政策工具总量和结 构双重功能，引导金融机构改善供给，持续优化信贷结构。 企业信贷方面，9月末，全省企业贷款余额10.1万亿元，同比增长12.2%；前三季度企业贷款增加1 万亿元，同比多增811.7亿元。其中，制造业中长期贷款余额同比增长11.6%。 个人信贷方面，9月末，全省不含个人住房贷款的住户中长期消 ...

在2025外滩年会"上海跨境金融服务能级提升：创新实践与国际协作"圆桌讨论中，国家外汇管理局副局 长刘斌表示，在近年来便利化措施的基础上，外汇局下一步的总体考虑围绕健全"更加便利、更加开 放、更加安全、更加智慧"的外汇管理体制机制，结合上海发展实际，进一步助力上海国际金融中心建 设。 具体包括三方面： 一是稳步扩大外汇领域高水平制度型开放。将统筹好人民币国际化与资本项目高质量开放，强化本外币 一体化管理，以扩大金融市场开放为重点，便利外资金融机构来华投资兴业，让更多银行像渣打一样在 中国发展。 同时，深化外汇市场发展，研究长期限、多品种、小币种等外汇市场发展问题，进一步支持外汇交易中 心强化金融基础设施功能与服务能力，包括清算基础设施如何支持，同时推动金融机构优化汇率风险管 理服务。随着国际交易规模扩大，汇率避险是应有之义，需求将更加多样化和个性化。 二是促进跨境贸易和投融资便利化。根据市场需求和我国实际，持续推进外汇管理改革创新，赋予诚信 合规主体更高便利度。外汇局目前秉持"越诚信越便利"原则，交易越真实、主体越合规，资金使用就越 便利，以此统筹好防风险与促便利的关系。鼓励在上海率先落地一些首创性、集成性的 ...

9月30日，国家外汇局发布了《2025年上半年中国国际收支报告》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》显 示，2025年上半年，我国经常账户顺差2941亿美元，继续处于合理均衡区间。货物贸易保持韧性，国际 收支口径的货物进出口总额同比增长2%。服务贸易更加活跃，服务进出口总额同比增长6%，服务贸易 逆差同比收窄13%。 《报告》指出，展望下一阶段，外部环境依然复杂，全球经济存在下行压力，产业链供应链格局面临重 构，地缘政治冲突和国际金融市场波动风险较大。我国加快构建新发展格局，加力培育新质生产力，持 续提升宏观政策效能，稳步推进高水平对外开放，将继续为国际收支平稳运行提供坚实支撑。预计经常 账户继续保持合理均衡水平，跨境双向投融资有望稳中向好。 全国共办理相关便利化业务 超7000亿美元 2025年以来，国家外汇局认真贯彻落实中央经济工作会议和中央金融工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进工作 总基调，坚持金融服务实体经济根本宗旨，持续推进跨境贸易和投融资便利化，加大高质量外汇政策供 给，助力经济平稳运行。 在积极支持稳定外贸方面，《报告》表示，国家外汇局推进跨境贸易高水平开放试点和优质企业贸易外 汇收支便利化政策，将更多专精特 ...

9月30日，国家外汇局发布了《2025年上半年中国国际收支报告》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》显 示，2025年上半年，我国经常账户顺差2941亿美元，继续处于合理均衡区间。货物贸易保持韧性，国际 收支口径的货物进出口总额同比增长2%。服务贸易更加活跃，服务进出口总额同比增长6%，服务贸易 逆差同比收窄13%。 《报告》指出，展望下一阶段，外部环境依然复杂，全球经济存在下行压力，产业链供应链格局面临重 构，地缘政治冲突和国际金融市场波动风险较大。我国加快构建新发展格局，加力培育新质生产力，持 续提升宏观政策效能，稳步推进高水平对外开放，将继续为国际收支平稳运行提供坚实支撑。预计经常 账户继续保持合理均衡水平，跨境双向投融资有望稳中向好。 《报告》显示，投资收益向好，我国对外投资收益、外资在华投资收益同比分别增长13%和7%。非储 备性质金融账户逆差与经常账户顺差形成自主平衡格局。上半年，境内主体各类对外投资有序、活跃； 我国吸收各类来华投资向好，股权性质的来华直接投资保持增长，外资净增持境内股票，外资投资境内 债券总体稳定。2025年6月末，我国对外金融资产和负债分别超过11万亿美元和7.2万亿美元，对外净资 ...

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) Shanghai Headquarters is committed to enhancing financial services for the real economy, focusing on cross-border trade and investment facilitation, and promoting the use of the Renminbi (RMB) in international transactions [1][2] Group 1: Cross-Border RMB Usage - The PBOC aims to increase the scale of cross-border RMB usage in key sectors, enterprises, and regions, leveraging Shanghai's role as a financial hub and promoting RMB settlement in oil, gas, and bulk commodity trades [1] - In the first seven months of this year, the total cross-border RMB payment and receipt in Shanghai reached 18.83 trillion yuan [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Policies - The PBOC is coordinating cross-border trade financing policies to support foreign trade development and attract foreign investment, including optimizing funding settlement services for new trade entities [2] - The total foreign-related income and expenditure in Shanghai reached 3.26 trillion USD in the first seven months of this year [2] Group 3: Foreign Institution Participation - The PBOC Shanghai Headquarters is facilitating foreign institutions' access to China's interbank bond market, with 1,171 foreign institutions having entered the market and holding a bond balance of 3.93 trillion yuan as of the end of July [2] - The PBOC is continuously optimizing its agency investment services for foreign central banks, enhancing the variety of services and increasing transaction settlement volumes [2] Group 4: Future Directions - The PBOC Shanghai Headquarters plans to further enhance the financial environment to support stable foreign trade and investment, aligning with national strategies and ensuring national interests and security [3]

Group 1 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) Liaoning Branch focuses on supporting the real economy and enhancing cross-border trade and investment facilitation to provide strong financial support for high-quality foreign economic development [1] - In the first half of the year, foreign-related enterprises utilized RMB foreign exchange derivatives to manage exchange rate risks amounting to 3.22 billion USD, with a foreign exchange hedging ratio of 22.3% and 97 new enterprises engaging in exchange rate hedging for the first time [1] - The cross-border financial service platform has seen 7 banks assist 26 enterprises in conducting RMB foreign exchange derivative transactions, with a total signed amount of 130 million USD, improving the efficiency of these transactions [1] Group 2 - The SAFE Liaoning Branch promotes banks to provide foreign exchange settlement and related fund payment services for cross-border e-commerce enterprises, enhancing the convenience of foreign exchange settlements in this new trade format [2] - In the first half of the year, 17 direct export cross-border e-commerce transactions were processed, totaling 31,180 USD [2] - The branch has established 5 demonstration zones for payment services for foreign visitors, with 2,046 bank outlets and 53 authorized currency exchange institutions available to meet various cash exchange needs [2]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market in China has shown strong resilience and vitality, performing better than market expectations in the first half of the year [1] - The total cross-border income and expenditure of non-bank sectors reached $7.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - The net inflow of cross-border funds for non-bank sectors was $127.3 billion, continuing the net inflow trend observed since the second half of last year [1] Group 2 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) has made significant progress in promoting the facilitation of cross-border trade and investment, with over $700 billion in related facilitation business processed nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 11% [2] - The number of banks participating in foreign exchange business reform has reached 22, with over 20,000 clients classified as primary clients, an increase of 23% from the end of last year [2] - Foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding $600 billion and a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [2] Group 3 - The SAFE has expanded cross-border trade facilitation policy trials to more free trade zones, including support for banks to optimize international trade settlement and simplify business processes [3] - New policies to enhance cross-border investment and financing have been introduced, including direct management of foreign debt registration by banks and shared foreign debt quotas for financing leasing companies [3] Group 4 - Economic high-quality development, steady progress in opening up, and increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market are expected to support the continued stable operation of China's foreign exchange market [4]

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is actively working to mitigate external shock risks and maintain a stable and healthy foreign exchange market [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Management - SAFE emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the flexibility of the Renminbi exchange rate [1] - The agency is focused on optimizing foreign exchange policy supply and deepening reforms and opening up in the foreign exchange sector [1] Group 2: Trade and Investment Facilitation - SAFE aims to enhance the convenience of cross-border trade and investment financing [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Overall Market - The LPR quote remains unchanged, and the market shows a mixed performance. The economic data in March exceeded expectations, but the market is concerned about future data weakness. The micro - liquidity shows signs of state - owned capital support, but market sentiment is still cautious [4]. - In the bond market, there is a certain degree of stalemate. The ultra - long - end bonds can be moderately optimistic, and the short - term bonds are weak. The market needs a significant event to confirm the trend [4]. 2.2 Commodity Futures - **Equity - related Futures**: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines in the stock index futures market [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about orders and demand. The impact of US tariffs and the supply - demand situation in the international market also affect cotton prices [6]. - Sugar: The sugar price shows a volatile trend due to sufficient short - term supply and uncertain demand - supply gap [7][8]. - Oils and Fats: Short palm oil at high prices and long soybean meal at low prices, but be aware of policy, weather, and soybean arrival risks [9]. - Eggs: Expect egg futures to be weak and volatile, and operate with a short - term bearish view [10]. - Apples: Lightly buy near - month contracts at low prices [10]. - Red Dates: Hold short positions and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [10]. - Livestock: Consider shorting the LH2507 contract of live hogs [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The oil price rebounds and then falls back. In the long - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is weak. In the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [12]. - Fuel Oil: It is expected to follow the oil price and fluctuate, and the market's reaction to the trade war and risk release will affect it [13]. - Plastics: L is expected to be weak and volatile. For PP, consider a long position in the near - month contract and a short position in the far - month contract after a correction [14]. - Rubber: The short - term disk is expected to be in a low - level shock, and pay attention to the opportunity of the RU - NR spread widening after NR04 delivery [15]. - Methanol: It is expected to be weak and volatile due to weak supply - demand and increasing imports [16]. - Soda Ash and Glass: Soda ash is expected to be weak and volatile, and glass may face a decline risk. Consider the opportunity of long glass and short soda ash [16]. - Asphalt: The price is expected to be in the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan, and the market's reaction to the trade war is the main factor [16][17]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: It follows the crude oil price in the short - term and may decline in the long - term due to supply - demand changes [18]. - Paper Pulp: The short - term is in a shock due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm in April and inventory changes [18][19]. - Urea: Keep a long - term bullish view on the UR09 contract after a significant decline, but be cautious in the short - term [20]. - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to shorting opportunities after a rebound due to weak raw material expectations [21]. - **Metals**: - Aluminum and Alumina: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, and alumina is expected to be in a bottom - range shock and can be bought at low prices [23]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon is expected to be bearish, and polysilicon is expected to have limited upward space in the 06 contract and downward pressure in the 07 contract [24][25]. - Iron and Steel and Ore: The short - term is expected to be volatile, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak. The cost provides some support [26][27][28]. - Coal and Coke: They are expected to be weak in the short - term without large - scale production cuts or reduced imports [28][29]. - Ferroalloys: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and be bearish on ferromanganese in the medium - term but do not chase short [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The 1 - year LPR is 3.1%, and the 5 - year LPR is 3.6%, remaining unchanged for 6 consecutive months [4]. - The Chinese government promotes the opening of the futures market and expands the scope of specific varieties [4]. - Ningde Times releases the second - generation Shenxing super - charging battery [4]. - The US economic and financial markets are affected by "reciprocal tariffs", and the global financial market is volatile [4]. - China promotes the expansion of service industry opening - up pilot projects [4]. - The expected interest rate of ordinary personal insurance products may be adjusted [4]. - The US may shrink its activities in Africa [4]. - The US economy is affected by "reciprocal tariffs", and the stock market continues to fall [4]. 3.2 Futures Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider IH, IM cross - variety arbitrage or stay on the sidelines [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Be moderately optimistic about the ultra - long - end bonds [4]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Take profit on long positions in the far - month contracts [4][5]. 3.3 Commodity Market Analysis - **Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price is under pressure due to weak demand and the impact of US tariffs. The supply - demand situation in the international market also affects it [6]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is volatile due to sufficient supply and uncertain demand - supply gap [7][8]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil is affected by seasonal production increase and other factors, and the soybean meal supply may increase in the future [9][10]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to be weak due to increasing supply and weakening demand [10]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in the near - term due to low inventory and good sales [10]. - **Red Dates**: The price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weakening demand [10]. - **Livestock**: The hog price may be weak due to increasing supply and weakening demand [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the oil price and is affected by the market's reaction to the trade war [13]. - **Plastics**: The L is expected to be weak, and the PP has different trends in the near - month and far - month contracts [14]. - **Rubber**: The short - term disk is expected to be in a shock, and pay attention to the spread opportunity [15]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to be weak due to weak supply - demand and increasing imports [16]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda ash is weak, and glass may decline. Consider spread trading [16]. - **Asphalt**: The price is in a range and is affected by the oil price and the trade war [16][17]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It follows the oil price in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [18]. - **Paper Pulp**: The short - term is in a shock due to weak demand and high inventory [18][19]. - **Urea**: Keep a long - term bullish view on the UR09 contract after a decline [20]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short after a rebound due to weak raw material expectations [21]. - **Metals**: - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is slightly bullish, and alumina is in a bottom - range shock [23]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is bearish, and polysilicon has limited upward space [24][25]. - **Iron and Steel and Ore**: The short - term is volatile, and the medium - long - term is weak. The cost provides support [26][27][28]. - **Coal and Coke**: They are weak in the short - term without production cuts or reduced imports [28][29]. - **Ferroalloys**: Go long on ferrosilicon during the day and be bearish on ferromanganese in the medium - term [30].