Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference reiterated the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions, indicating a proactive approach to economic stabilization and growth [1][12]. Summary by Sections Review of Monetary Policy Operations This Year - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" was signaled during the Central Political Bureau meeting in December last year, leading to a significant decline in the 10-year government bond yield, which fell by 88 basis points over the year, marking the largest drop in a decade [2][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield reached a record low of below 1.6% after the New Year and Spring Festival [2]. Key Aspects of Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has confirmed that "moderately loose" reflects the supportive nature of recent monetary policy actions, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and optimizing the structure of monetary policy tools [5][14]. - In 2023, the PBOC implemented only one RRR cut of 50 basis points, compared to two cuts totaling 100 basis points in the previous year, and reduced the policy interest rate for the 7-day reverse repurchase agreement by 10 basis points [6][8]. Outlook for Next Year's Monetary Policy - The continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy is expected, with the central economic work conference acknowledging ongoing challenges such as external economic pressures and domestic supply-demand imbalances [9][10]. - The emphasis will be on enhancing policy coordination, integrating various economic policies to support stable growth, employment, and market expectations [11][12]. Implementation Strategies - The PBOC aims to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance while avoiding excessive liquidity injections, focusing on precise measures and leaving room for adjustments based on economic conditions [12][14]. - The integration of fiscal and monetary policies will be crucial, with examples such as the fiscal subsidy policy for personal consumption loans highlighting the collaboration between these sectors [11][12]. Risk Management and Financial Stability - The central economic work conference stressed the importance of balancing economic growth with risk prevention, enhancing the monitoring and assessment of financial risks, and maintaining stability in financial markets [17][18]. - The PBOC is tasked with building a robust monetary policy framework and improving the transparency of policy communication to bolster public confidence [18].

去年12月9日中央政治局会议分析研究2025年经济工作时，就"剧透"了来年货币政策基调从"稳健"调整为"适度宽松"的信号。这引发了对2025年更大力度降 准降息的憧憬，债券市场出现"抢跑"行情。去年全年，10年期国债收益率累计下行88个基点，跌幅创十年来新高。其中，12月单月下行35个基点，而12月9 日（含）之后贡献了28个基点。今年元旦和春节过后，10年期国债收益率两度收盘跌破1.6%，创有记录以来新低。 央行例会将"适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕"替换成"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕"。 继去年底时隔14年重提"实施适度宽松的货币政策"后，今年底中央经济工作会议再提"继续实施适度宽松的货币政策"，且在具体表述中用"灵活高效运用降 准降息等多种政策工具"替换了"适时降准降息"。本文拟在回顾今年货币政策操作的基础上，结合日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会第四季度例会 （下称"四季度例会"）对明年货币政策进行展望。 今年货币政策操作回顾 年初笔者引用人民银行行长潘功胜去年6月在陆家嘴论坛上关于中国货币政策立场是支持性的评论时指出，"适度宽松"是对前期货币政策操作的确认，而不 是货币政策的 ...

固收｜降准降息，何谓"灵活高效"？20251224 摘要 中国货币政策强调适时、适度和有效性，央行操作灵活，可根据经济环 境调整利率，理论上操作机会远超美联储，需关注宏观环境和政策时机 以确保操作效果。 中国主要有政策利率（7 天逆回购利率，目前 1.4%）、基准利率、存款 利率和贷款利率四种类型，分别在调控市场流动性、金融产品定价、影 响居民储蓄和企业融资等方面发挥作用。 评估降息效果可观察股指表现，其被视为宏观经济晴雨表。过去央行在 关键节点调控，如美联储降息和中美贸易谈判前夕，股市均出现明显反 弹，表明股指是直观评估指标。 2026 年 3 月中国两会将提出"十五五"规划纲要，政策落地有望通过 降息提振股市。春节后资金流向影响市场，提振风险偏好有助于资金从 虚拟经济转向实体经济。 2025-2026 年不应过度期待多次大幅度降息，重点是改变债务结构而 非单纯降低融资成本，通过政府加杠杆来优化融资结构，多次大幅度降 息并非必要。 Q&A 2025 年的中央经济工作会议提到灵活高效应用降准降息等多种政策工具，如 何理解这一点？展望 2026 年，宽货币节奏应如何看待？ 2025 年的中央经济工作会议强调了灵 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the construction of a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, emphasizing the need to narrow the interest rate corridor to enhance the effectiveness of the central bank's policy rates [1][10]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Framework - The central bank aims to strengthen the role of policy interest rates and narrow the width of the short-term interest rate corridor, facilitating the transmission from policy rates to market benchmark rates [1][10]. - The current interest rate corridor has a width of 240 basis points, which has led to instances where market benchmark rates significantly deviate from policy rates, weakening the guiding effect of the policy rates [9][10]. New Interest Rate Corridor - The proposed new corridor will have an upper limit set by the temporary overnight reverse repurchase rate and a lower limit set by the temporary overnight repurchase rate, with a reduced width of 70 basis points, a decrease of 135 basis points from the original corridor [2][10]. - The market benchmark rate may shift from DR007 to DR001, indicating a tighter control over short-term interest rates [2][12]. Implications of a Wider Corridor - A wider interest rate corridor has been criticized for allowing significant deviations of market rates from policy rates, which can lead to excessive leverage in the market [9][10]. - The corridor was established post-2015 to stabilize short-term market rates, but instances of DR007 falling below policy rates have raised concerns about its effectiveness [6][8]. Challenges in Adjusting the Corridor - Adjusting the corridor involves potential challenges, such as the impact on market expectations and the need to balance the upper and lower limits effectively [4][11]. - The central bank may face difficulties in incentivizing banks to lend to the real economy if the excess reserve rate is raised, as it could lead to a preference for holding funds at the central bank [11][12]. Future Developments - The central bank has indicated that narrowing the interest rate corridor is essential for clearer communication of monetary policy objectives and enhancing the guiding role of policy rates [10][12]. - The new corridor structure has already begun to take shape, with the market benchmark rate now fluctuating within the newly defined limits, indicating a more effective monetary policy transmission mechanism [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, marking its first reduction in nine months and the first since Trump's "second term" began [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The interest rate is now set between 4.00% and 4.25%, with expectations of further cuts in the next 1 to 1.5 years, indicating a return to a low-interest-rate environment [3][4]. - The decision to cut rates is influenced by subpar employment data, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [3][4]. - The Fed's pause in rate cuts for nine months was to assess the impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [4]. Group 2: Market Implications - The rate cut is expected to positively impact global asset prices, including U.S. stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold, with at least one more 25 basis point cut anticipated this year [4][5]. - The potential for a faster pace of rate cuts may alleviate the interest rate differential between the U.S. and China, providing more room for China's monetary policy [4][5]. - The Hong Kong dollar, being pegged to the U.S. dollar, will see synchronized rate cuts, while the Chinese yuan may experience smaller reductions, which could help retain capital in mainland China [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The interest rate cuts by the Fed are seen as beneficial for the Chinese stock market, real estate, and overall economy, with a more significant impact expected on Hong Kong's markets due to larger rate cuts [5]. - The dollar's rate cut cycle is likely to outpace that of the yuan, leading to a gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, contingent on successful trade negotiations [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has shifted its focus from using DR007 to DR001 as the market benchmark interest rate, indicating a potential change in the monetary policy framework and reflecting the evolving dynamics of the money market [1][2][6]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The PBOC's recent report highlights the use of DR001, which is the weighted average interest rate for overnight repurchase agreements backed by government bonds, as a key indicator of money market rates [1]. - DR001 is now seen as a more reliable benchmark due to its larger transaction volume and higher price fairness compared to DR007, which was previously the standard [2][8]. Transition from DR007 to DR001 - The transition from DR007 to DR001 as the market benchmark interest rate has been noted since the first quarter of 2025, with DR001 showing fluctuations around the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [6][7]. - The shift is part of a broader evolution in China's benchmark interest rates, moving from SHIBOR to DR, and then to DR007, which was first proposed as a benchmark in November 2016 [4][5]. Market Dynamics and Implications - The trading volume of DR001 significantly surpasses that of DR007, with DR001 accounting for approximately 96% of the total DR trading volume, indicating its dominance in the market [8]. - The choice of DR001 aligns with international practices where overnight rates are commonly used as benchmarks, facilitating better transmission of interest rates across different maturities [8]. Challenges and Considerations - The adoption of DR001 raises concerns regarding the mismatch between the policy rate (7-day reverse repo rate) and the new benchmark, as they have different maturities [9]. - Current market pricing for financial products is primarily based on DR007, and a transition to DR001 necessitates a reevaluation of pricing models for various financial instruments [10].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Indonesia is expected to maintain the 7-day reverse repo rate at 5.25% by the end of the third quarter, consistent with the findings from the June survey [1] Group 1 - The 7-day reverse repo rate is projected to remain unchanged at 5.25% [1]