渣打银行：预计中国央行将维持宽松货币政策，2026年第一季度可能下调存款准备金率（RRR）25bp，第二季度7天逆回购利率下调10bp。央行将注入充足流动性吸纳大规模政府债券供给，通过结构性再贷款工具支持重点领域，稳步增持国债。大型银行RRR维持7.25%，10Y债券收益率呈下行趋势，年末预测为1.30%。 ...

2025年12月12日，蒙古央行公布数据称，2025年前3季度蒙古经济增长率达5.9%，总体符合预期。从内 部环境看，农业和矿业为经济增长的主要贡献行业，明年发展前景乐观。从外部环境看，美国加征关税 对蒙影响低于预期，金、铜等矿产的国际市场价格保持较高水准，但外部经济发展不确定性依然存在。 今年1—11月，蒙古通胀率为8.2%，主要受蔬菜、肉类价格上涨及明年工资增长预期影响。此外，考虑 到经济、银行和金融市场状况，蒙古央行决定将基准利率维持在12%，并适当降低存款准备金率，以增 强经济和金融部门稳定性。 ...

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock market began a downward trend starting November 14, triggered by the release of disappointing financial data for October on November 13, which did not meet expectations [1][3]. Financial Data Analysis - On July 14, the central bank released June financial data that significantly exceeded expectations, leading to a bullish market trend [3]. - The October financial data released on November 13 was below expectations, resulting in a noticeable decline in the stock market starting November 14 [3][4]. - The primary reason for the explosive data in July was the unexpected increase in money supply driven by bond purchases, while the October data reflected a downturn in bond issuance, impacting money supply growth [5][12]. Monetary Mechanism Explanation - The central bank is the issuer of currency, and the total money supply (M2) is determined by the base currency and the reserve requirement ratio [5][7]. - Commercial banks can create money through asset expansion, which includes buying bonds, but they must first attract deposits [6][9]. - The difference between commercial banks and the central bank in money creation lies in the need for deposits and the type of money created (derived vs. base money) [9][10]. Market Outlook - The recent data indicated a turning point for both M1 and M2, primarily due to a decline in bond issuance [13]. - Despite the downward pressure, the market is expected to stabilize rather than enter a prolonged decline, as the bond market can be adjusted by issuers in response to economic conditions [13]. - The long-term outlook remains optimistic, with confidence in the market's potential for recovery driven by bond issuance mechanisms [13][14]. Sector Focus - Future national development priorities include technology, new productive forces, and industrial upgrades, which may lead to high valuations in tech sectors [15]. - Traditional sectors, while not the focus of future growth, have lower valuations and may present safer investment opportunities [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is reducing the reserve requirement ratio for deposits in VND to promote consolidation in the banking sector [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - Starting from October 1, banks that take over weaker banks will have their reserve requirement ratio for VND deposits halved [1] - The current statutory reserve requirement ratio for VND deposits with a maturity of 12 months or more is 1%, while for short-term deposits it is 3% [1] Group 2: Impact on Dollar Deposits - It remains unclear whether the new regulations will affect the reserve requirement ratios for dollar deposits, which are currently set at 8% for short-term and 6% for deposits with a maturity of 12 months or more [1]

Core Insights - India's 5-year government bond yield decreased by 14 basis points following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio [1] Group 1 - The reduction in the cash reserve ratio has a direct impact on the bond market, leading to lower yields [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India has lowered the cash reserve ratio, leading to a decline in government bond yields, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [1] Group 1: Bond Market Impact - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds has decreased by 6 basis points to 6.19% following the cash reserve ratio cut [1] - The yield on India's 5-year government bonds has fallen by 14 basis points, currently standing at 5.68% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India has reduced the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 basis points to 3% [1] Group 1 - The decision aims to enhance liquidity in the banking system [1] - This move is expected to support economic growth by encouraging lending [1] - The reduction in CRR will free up approximately 1 trillion Indian Rupees for banks to lend [1]

Core Viewpoint - The 5-year government bond yield in India has decreased by 14 basis points following a reduction in the cash reserve ratio [1] Group 1 - The reduction in the cash reserve ratio has led to a decline in bond yields, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of India has reduced the cash reserve ratio by 100 basis points to 3% [1] Group 1 - The decision to lower the cash reserve ratio aims to enhance liquidity in the banking system [1] - This adjustment is expected to encourage banks to lend more, potentially stimulating economic growth [1] - The reduction in the cash reserve ratio reflects the central bank's response to current economic conditions [1]