Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite recent fluctuations, gold prices are expected to maintain a solid long-term support, with a psychological barrier at $3900 per ounce [1][2][3] - Gold opened at $4104.84 per ounce, briefly peaked at $4110, then fell to a low of $3978 before rebounding [1] - The market is experiencing profit-taking and mixed risk sentiment, leading to volatility around the $4000 mark [1][2] Group 2 - Professional analysts have a neutral stance on the gold market, while retail investors are becoming bullish due to gold's strong performance [2] - Some analysts predict potential short-term pullbacks, while others emphasize gold's long-term fundamentals amid inflation pressures and economic uncertainties [2] - Key economic indicators to watch include the US ISM manufacturing and services PMI data, ADP private sector employment data, and the Bank of England's policy decision [2] Group 3 - Overall, gold has stabilized around the $4000 level despite multiple pullbacks, with a long-term upward trend anticipated as market uncertainties are digested [3] - Short-term fluctuations provide good trading opportunities, and investors are advised to remain flexible in their operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors at historical highs and concerns over potential overvaluation of precious metals after a significant rally [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant drop of 6.3%, while silver fell by 8.7%, indicating a typical "technical correction" as described by market experts [2] - William Purpura, a senior expert in commodity trading, noted that the recent price surge resembled a "parabolic rise," similar to past peaks in 1980 and 2011, suggesting that the market has been overbought for some time [2] - The sell-off began in the Asian market and spread to the U.S. market, with Purpura advising caution against "catching falling knives" and emphasizing the need to observe market stabilization before making investment decisions [2] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term volatility, analysts believe that the long-term support factors for gold remain unchanged, with strong support expected in the $4000 to $4050 range [3] - Recent data from the World Gold Council indicated a net inflow of $8 billion into physical gold ETFs, marking the largest weekly increase since 2018, driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal credit and expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook for gold prices in the medium to long term, with expectations of continued central bank purchases and persistent global credit risks and inflation expectations supporting a rebound in prices [3] - BMO's analyst Amos projected that gold prices could reach $4500 per ounce next year, reinforcing the notion that periodic adjustments are healthy and necessary for the market [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months from November 2024 to September 2025, reaching a historical high, reflecting a strategic and stable approach to asset management [1][7] Group 1: Nature of Gold as an Asset - Gold is characterized as a "zero-yield dividend" asset, providing inherent hedging value rather than high returns, which contrasts with the systemic risks associated with reliance on the US dollar [2] - The correlation between gold and mainstream assets remains low, below 0.15, indicating its role as a stabilizing asset in national portfolios [2] Group 2: Strategic Consistency in Asset Allocation - The central bank's consistent gold purchasing strategy over the past 11 months contrasts with the rising inflow of physical gold into global ETFs, which reached 145.6 tons in September, marking a yearly high [3] - This disciplined approach to gold acquisition serves to smooth costs and positions gold as a strategic asset rather than a trading tool [3] Group 3: Transition from Credit to Physical Assets - Shifting reserves from sovereign credit bonds to non-credit physical assets like gold enhances financial autonomy and resilience in a high-debt environment, embedding a "zero credit risk" asset in the balance sheet [4] - This transition provides a clear strategy for individual asset allocation, emphasizing the importance of holding physical or hard currency assets to mitigate counterparty risks [4] Group 4: Insights for Rational Investors - Investors should recognize gold's primary function as a risk hedge and stabilizer in asset portfolios rather than a high-yield investment tool [5] - Regular and disciplined investment strategies can help mitigate the emotional challenges of market timing, addressing the fear and greed that often drive trading decisions [6] - Avoiding leveraged speculation is crucial, as the central bank's gold purchases are made without leverage, suggesting that individual investors should also steer clear of such risks [6]

Market Overview - The main contracts in the futures market show a bullish sentiment with 46 contracts rising and 33 contracts falling, indicating increased trading activity in the upward varieties [2][5]. Key Commodity Movements - The top gainers include: - Shanghai Gold 2512 (+4.82%) - Shanghai Copper 2511 (+4.19%) - International Copper 2511 (+4.19%) These commodities are significantly influenced by supply and demand dynamics [5]. - The top losers include: - Live Pigs 2511 (-5.88%) - LPG 2511 (-5.19%) - Eggs 2511 (-4.87%) These declines may be attributed to increased bearish forces or negative fundamental factors [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The most significant capital inflows were observed in: - CSI 500 2512 (5.082 billion) - CSI 300 2512 (3.998 billion) - Shanghai Gold 2512 (1.693 billion) These commodities attracted substantial attention from major funds [7]. - The largest capital outflows were noted in: - Shanghai Zinc 2511 (-288 million) - Live Pigs 2511 (-276 million) - Eggs 2511 (-180 million) Indicating a clear withdrawal of funds from these commodities [7]. Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were seen in: - Caustic Soda 2601 (+22.49%) - Shanghai Tin 2511 (+21.59%) - Glass 2601 (+16.24%) This suggests a high level of trading activity and potential new capital entering these markets [9]. - Significant decreases in open interest were recorded in: - Low Sulfur Fuel Oil 2511 (-12.66%) - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 2510 (-15.13%) - Cotton Yarn 2511 (-17.58%) Indicating a potential exit of major funds from these commodities [9]. Industry Insights - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 59,900 tons (3.74%) compared to the previous period, with production remaining high and limited consumption growth [10]. - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel program in the second half of 2026, which is expected to eliminate diesel imports by next year, following the current B40 program [11]. - The USDA's forecast for the 2025/26 U.S. soybean production is 4.271 billion bushels, down from the previous estimate of 4.301 billion bushels, while corn production is expected to be 16.645 billion bushels [12]. - In September, China's major polysilicon producers reported a production of 134,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.38%, with expectations for October production to rise further [13]. - Brazil's soybean exports are projected to exceed 100 million tons for the first time, with China being the primary destination for nearly 80% of these exports [14]. Commodity Specific Analysis - Shanghai Gold has surged significantly, closing at 914.32 yuan per gram, driven by global economic trends and increased central bank purchases [17][18]. - Shanghai Copper reached a new high of 86,750 yuan per ton, influenced by macroeconomic factors and supply disruptions from key mining operations [19][20]. - The live pig market is under pressure, with prices dropping to 11.595 yuan per ton due to oversupply and seasonal demand fluctuations [21][22].

Core Insights - Gold prices declined on Thursday due to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking, but the long-term safe-haven value remains intact, suggesting that gold prices may reach new historical highs in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1 - Gold prices are influenced by the strength of the US dollar and market profit-taking activities [1] - Despite the recent decline, there is an expectation for gold to potentially achieve new record highs in Q4 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for precious metals is three red stars, indicating a more distinct upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1][4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Overnight, precious metals continued to decline. Recent trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes are intertwined. The joint statement between China and the US to reduce reciprocal tariffs led to a strong market reaction, causing the gold price to give back its previous risk premium. The international gold price has fallen nearly 10%, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support at $3,200. The market is also awaiting the US CPI data tonight [2] Group 3: Reasons for the Gold Price Decline - The weakening of the trade conflict has reduced the safe - haven value of gold. When the Trump administration announced comprehensive tariff hikes last month, the gold price soared 8% in a single week to a record high of $3,500. Now, as the trade war eases, the over - reaction to the White House's policy has led to the gold price correction [3] - The resurgence of the US dollar has suppressed the gold price. The US dollar index soared 1.5% on the same day, breaking through the 101 mark and reaching a two - month high of 101.97, which has a double - edged impact on gold [3] - Capital has shifted to risk assets. The S&P 500 index soared 3.26%, the Nasdaq rose 4.35%, and the VIX panic index fell below the 20 psychological threshold, indicating that funds are leaving defensive assets [3]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The international gold price experienced significant volatility, reaching a historical high of over $3500 per ounce before dropping nearly $200 within 24 hours due to signals of easing trade tensions [1] - The intensification of US-China trade friction and geopolitical uncertainties are driving the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with rising inflation pressures and increased corporate costs [1][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank adding gold for five consecutive months, reaching a record high of 73.7 million ounces by the end of March [3] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Traditional gold investment methods have high entry barriers and liquidity issues, making it difficult for small investors to participate [3][5] - WanZhou Gold's trading platform lowers the entry threshold for gold trading to $70, significantly reducing transaction costs and allowing ordinary investors to engage in the gold market [5] - The platform utilizes an innovative MT5 trading system that leverages big data and AI algorithms to provide real-time market tracking and trading signals, enhancing risk management for investors [5][7] Group 3: Accessibility and Education - WanZhou Gold offers a T+0 trading mechanism that allows investors to capitalize on price fluctuations, making it easier for small capital to achieve significant returns [7] - The company provides a simulated trading account for practice, along with professional market analysis reports and real-time information to help investors navigate market trends [7] - The user-friendly interface of the WanZhou Gold app supports multiple languages, making it accessible for global investors, including beginners [7]