正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 基本面偏弱、预期偏强，双焦上行仍受限 煤焦周度报告 20250915 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面先跌后涨，关注逢低做多机会；现货首轮提降落地，二轮提降开启 | | | 供给 | 前期停限产焦化厂基本复产，焦炭供应回升 | | | 需求 | 铁水大幅回升，钢厂按需采购；投机情绪一般，出口利润变动不大，建材现货日成交量低于历年同期 | | | 库存 | 全环节增库，总库存增加 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利压缩，焦炭盘面利润震荡 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭01升水扩大，1-5价差继续走弱 | | | 总结 | 上周美国就业市场降温，美联储9月降息预期增强；国内反内卷仍不时推涨盘面；但受制于旺季需求特征不明显，钢材仍在累库，双焦供应在阅兵结束 后回升，现货需求偏弱，焦炭连续提降，基本面弱现实继续制约盘面向上。截至周五收盘，焦炭01合约涨0.56%至1625.5，焦煤01合约涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production - restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3rd military parade, which leads to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. Also, the previous position - limit on coking coal contracts by the exchange reduces its liquidity, and the hype sentiment of anti - involution fades, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys follow the price of coking coal and decline. However, the ferroalloy price has dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution proposal, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still bottom support, but under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside [4]. - Ferroalloy profits have been continuously declining. The current production is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with weak driving force for further production increase. There is a possibility of production reduction driven by profit decline. With the production restriction of steel mills in some areas before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure on the upside [4]. - The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (semi - coke and manganese ore) is gradually expanding. It is more cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons, but the price of coal - based products fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.97% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.39% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.8% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can sell SF2511 and SM2601 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon iron warehouse receipts are 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 162,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 126,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 332,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 481,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The ferroalloy supply is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. Without improvement in downstream demand, its growth space is limited. The enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector declines, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The silicon - manganese demand is relatively weak. The production is 213,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the enterprise operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, showing the price changes from September 2, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar data including basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, along with the price changes of related raw materials [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 military parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. The previous position limits on coking coal contracts by the exchange have reduced its liquidity, and the hype sentiment has faded, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys have followed the downward trend of coking coal prices. However, ferroalloy prices have dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution campaign, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still support at the bottom, but due to high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside. Ferroalloy profits have been declining, and production is at a relatively high level in the past five years, with weak incentives for further production increases and a possibility of production cuts. With production restrictions on steel mills before the parade and no significant improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventories may shift from destocking to stockpiling. The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, semi - coke and manganese ore, is gradually widening, and it is cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons. It is recommended to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.32% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.1%. The monthly price range forecast for silicomanganese is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 30.1% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about ferroalloy price drops, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 15% and an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM [3]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventories and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying direction is recommended, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3]. 利多解读 Ferrosilicon - The demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [7]. Silicomanganese - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicomanganese industry. The demand for silicomanganese in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. Silicomanganese enterprise inventories are 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [8]. 利空解读 Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferroalloys is at a high level in the past five years, with significant supply pressure. In the absence of improved downstream demand, its growth space is limited. Ferrosilicon enterprise inventories are 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [8]. Silicomanganese - In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector has declined, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak silicomanganese demand. Silicomanganese production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the Chinese enterprise operating rate is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [8]. Daily Data Ferrosilicon - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 18, 01 - 05 was - 124, 05 - 09 was 284, 09 - 01 was - 160. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to August 29 and August 25. The number of warehouse receipts was 19331, a decrease compared to previous days [7][8]. Silicomanganese - On September 1, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 294, 01 - 05 was - 44, 05 - 09 was 138, 09 - 01 was - 94, and the price difference between the two silicons was - 204. Spot prices in different regions also declined compared to previous days. The number of warehouse receipts was 65760, a decrease compared to previous days [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market sentiment has improved due to factors such as good July sales of Chinese cars and new - energy vehicles, possible Fed rate cuts, and the confirmed meeting time between US and Russian presidents, leading to most non - ferrous metals rising. However, the People's Bank of China's significant net currency withdrawal and the decline in the month - on - month auto production and sales in July have added some market complexity. The Russia - Ukraine situation has a large impact on the aluminum market, and the short - term may see fluctuations with increased volatility [1]. - Currently in the off - season, there is insufficient spot demand. The hype around anti - involution in the alumina market has significantly subsided, and this round of speculation may end [2]. 3) Summary by Related Information Market Performance - Shanghai Aluminum (SHFE) closed at 20,700 today, and the spot price was 20,630, with a spot discount of - 70 points. The spot discount this week remained flat at - 40 yuan, and spot trading improved. London Aluminum (LME) declined, and domestic spot aluminum also fell. The LME spot inventory decreased this week, with a spot discount of - 2 dollars. The RMB exchange rate rose slightly this week, and the SHFE - LME aluminum price ratio dropped to 7.93, indicating the domestic market's weaker performance compared to the overseas market [1]. - Technically, crude oil tumbled today, LME aluminum oscillated and slightly declined, trading around 2,614 dollars. SHFE aluminum rose slightly, closing at 20,700, with improved technical patterns. Both trading volume and open interest of SHFE aluminum increased, and market sentiment improved slightly [2]. Inventory Situation - This week, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased. The inventory of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also rose, while the LME spot inventory decreased [1]. Other Information - The month - on - month auto production and sales in July decreased, but the year - on - year growth continued to be above 13%. The RMB appreciated and the US dollar depreciated during the day, and the market sentiment was strong, leading to all non - ferrous metals rising [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the high - level meeting, the "anti - involution" hype faded, and the market will focus on the demand during the peak season. The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with potential further weakening of demand and rising inventory. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season, with high supply and limited upward space for iron - water production. Both steel and iron ore futures prices face downward pressure [2][4] - For steel, it is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - profits in time. For iron ore, short - term short positions can be held lightly with timely stop - profits [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Focus**: After the meeting, the market turns to focus on the peak - season consumption in September. The market shows a weak supply - demand situation, with potential further weakening of demand due to the ongoing hot summer [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have different changes compared to the previous day and week. Most spot prices have declined slightly. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show various changes [2] - **Production and Profit**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remains stable, but the average daily iron - water volume has decreased. The proportion of profitable steel mills has increased. The rebar production has increased, while the hot - rolled coil production has decreased [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties has increased, with both social and factory inventories of rebar rising, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing while the factory inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand and Orders**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties has declined slightly. The trading volume in the spot market has decreased significantly [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the iron - water production is under pressure to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade - mine inventory is high [4] - **Price and Spread**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis, futures monthly spreads, and variety spreads also show various trends [4] - **Shipping and Logistics**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. The shipping freight rates and exchange rates have changed, and the arrival volume of northern six ports has increased while the average daily port - clearance volume has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory and trade - mine inventory have decreased, and the sintered powder inventory of sample steel mills has also declined [4] 3. Industry News - HeSteel's August silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities have changed compared to July [6] - Some coal mines have experienced production suspension and resumption, affecting the output of coking coal [6] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, spot prices rose significantly, and the futures market rebounded from a low level. Blast furnace production decreased slightly, and electric furnace production continued to decline. Building material social inventory continued to decrease, while plate inventory accumulated at an accelerated pace. Building material speculative demand increased significantly, while plate domestic demand declined significantly. Blast furnace profits remained high, and the loss of electric furnaces narrowed. The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit. The industrial logic accounted for a relatively low proportion, and the expected trading speculation was still fermenting. The probability of the futures market returning to a downward trend in the short - term was low. It was recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. - For iron ore, the ore price rose strongly, and the futures market continued to rebound. Australian and Brazilian shipments declined, while arrivals increased slightly. Blast furnace production decreased, and demand weakened month - on - month. Port inventory decreased slightly, and the total downstream inventory declined. Shipping costs increased slightly, and the futures price spread narrowed. The anti - involution speculation continued to ferment, and the market sentiment was still recovering. The supply was relatively flat last week, and the demand decreased slightly. The change in supply - demand strength was not obvious, and it was expected that news speculation would continue next week. It was also recommended to temporarily stop losses on short positions and wait for an opportunity to cover short positions after the rebound ended [7]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Steel Weekly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - The price of rebar rebounded strongly last week, with the 10 - contract rising 77 to 3072. The spot price fluctuated, with rebar in East China reported at 3170 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan week - on - week [13]. 3.1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.15%, down 0.31 percentage points week - on - week and up 0.65 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week - on - week and up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 239.81 tons, a decrease of 1.04 tons week - on - week. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points [16][24]. - The rebar production decreased by 4.42 tons last week, and the hot - rolled production decreased by 5 tons week - on - week [27]. 3.1.3 Demand - From July 2nd to July 8th, the national cement outbound volume was 272.58 tons, down 1.26% week - on - week and 27.41% year - on - year. Speculative demand improved, while terminal demand declined [31]. - The weekly consumption of the five major steel products was 873.07 tons, down 1.4%; plate consumption decreased by 1.8% month - on - month [34]. 3.1.4 Profit - For blast furnaces, although the iron ore price rose significantly and the profit per ton of steel declined, it still operated between 160 - 200. The loss of short - process production was repaired, and the valley - electricity production in the Southwest region turned profitable [38]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1339.58 tons, down 0.35 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.03%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased week - on - week. The factory inventory increased week - on - week, mainly contributed by medium - thick plates. The social inventory decreased week - on - week, mainly contributed by rebar. The rebar factory inventory showed a slight increase, up 0.41 tons week - on - week [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - factory inventory decreased slightly compared with last week. In terms of social inventory, from the perspective of the three major regions, the inventory in the North decreased by 1.61 tons week - on - week, while the inventory in East China and the South increased by 1.84 tons and 0.9 tons respectively [45]. 3.1.6 Basis The current basis of rebar 10 was 107, narrowing 1 compared with last week, and the change in the basis was not significant. All reverse arbitrage positions were stopped for profit [50]. 3.1.7 Inter - period Spread The 10 - 1 spread was - 28, with an inverted spread of 7 compared with last week, and the degree of inversion deepened. The near - month contract faced off - season pressure, and the price was expected to decline. The far - month contract had a better expectation, and the price was relatively high. The inverted spread situation might be repaired after the rebound ended [53]. 3.1.8 Inter - product Spread The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 140, widening 11 compared with last week. The spot spread was 70, narrowing 20 compared with last week. The spread was at a moderately high level. The rebar rebound was relatively strong, and the plate faced the off - season of the automotive industry with declining demand. It was expected that there would be no further contraction space in the futures spread, and no operation was recommended [56]. 3.2 Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - The iron ore price rebounded strongly last week, with the 09 - contract rising 31.5 to 764. The spot price also rose, with the PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 27 to 752 yuan/ton. The market sentiment improved significantly, and downstream enterprises actively replenished stocks, leading to a significant increase in port transactions [61]. 3.2.2 Supply - According to Mysteel's global iron ore shipment data, the current shipment volume was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 363 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in July was 2994.9 tons, a decrease of 437 tons compared with last month and an increase of 64 tons compared with last year [64]. - In the long - term, the weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 1764 tons, a decrease of 252 tons compared with last month and an increase of 95 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 653.8 tons, a decrease of 181 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 144 tons compared with last year. From the perspective of cumulative shipments this year, the cumulative global iron ore shipments decreased by 173 tons year - on - year, with Brazil's cumulative shipments increasing by 683 tons year - on - year, Australia's cumulative shipments decreasing by 661 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative shipments decreasing by 196 tons year - on - year [67]. - The arrival volume of 47 ports increased week - on - week, at a moderately low level compared with the same period in the past three years. The current arrival volume was 2535.5 tons, an increase of 122 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in July was 2535.5 tons, a decrease of 59 tons compared with last month and a decrease of 20 tons compared with last year. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative arrival volume of 47 ports decreased by 2528 tons year - on - year, with Australia's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 575 tons year - on - year, Brazil's cumulative arrivals decreasing by 392 tons year - on - year, and non - mainstream regions' cumulative arrivals decreasing by 1560 tons year - on - year [70]. 3.2.3 Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills decreased last week, with an average daily output of 239.81 tons/day, a decrease of 1.04 tons/day compared with last week, an increase of 9.22 tons/day compared with the beginning of the year, and an increase of 1.52 tons/day compared with last year [73]. - In terms of downstream procurement, the average daily port transaction volume last week was 90.1 tons, a decrease of 7.7 tons week - on - week. Due to the sharp rise in the previous period, the market's fear of high prices resurfaced, and the overall transaction volume declined. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished stocks as needed, and the procurement volume decreased with the decline in pig iron production [76]. 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory of 47 ports decreased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14346.89 tons, a decrease of 139 tons week - on - week, a decrease of 1264 tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 1359 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year [79]. - In terms of downstream inventory, on July 10th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills under the new statistical caliber was 2814.74 tons, an increase of 13.80 tons compared with the previous period. The total daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 112.42 tons, a decrease of 5.81 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 25.04, an increase of 1.35 compared with the previous period. The total steel mill ore powder inventory decreased slightly. Currently, the price was relatively high, and the steel procurement rhythm was slow [82]. 3.2.5 Shipping The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 7.54 US dollars/ton, rising 0.15 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 19.33 US dollars/ton, rising 0.75 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost increased slightly [85]. 3.2.6 Spread The 9 - 1 spread was 27.5, widening 2 compared with last week, and the overall change was not significant. The 9 - 1 spread was at a moderately low level, and the overall spread structure was relatively flat. The 09 - contract was at a discount of 9, at a moderately low level. The spread narrowed 5 last week. Recently, the futures price rose sharply, and the spot price might follow the decline of finished steel products later. The iron ore basis was expected to expand slightly [88].