铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：宏观预期助推，偏强震荡 | | | 最近一周切片数据 | | | | | | | | | YTD累计发运数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 条 目 全球发货量 | | 当周值 3506 | 7 | 环 比 154 | 0 | 同 168 | 比 7 | 全球发货 | 25W2025 75029.3 | 25W2024 74859.0 | 累计同比 170.3 | 累计同比% 0.2% | | | 澳发货量 | | 2068 | . 1 . | . 74 . | 5 | . 8 . | 5 | 澳发货 | 44115.7 | 44503.4 | -387.7 | -0.9% | | | 巴发货量 | ...

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 铁水转增钢材去库，钢价震荡反复 ——周报20250623 | 本期观点——铁矿石 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 供应：澳洲和巴西19港口发运3009.8万吨（环比+8.81%，同比+6.25%），铁 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 矿石45港口到港量2562.7万吨（环比+7.47%，同比+3.63%）。 需求：铁水日产242.18万吨（环比+0.57万吨，同比+2.24万吨 ），铁矿石45 港口疏港量313.56万吨（环比+4.09%，同比+3.21%）。 | | | | | | | 铁水超预 | | | 库存：铁矿石45港口库存13894.16万吨（环比-0.28%，同比-6.92%），247家 | 单边：区间 | 期、终端 | | 铁矿 | 钢企进口铁矿库存8690.18万吨（环比-0.73%，同比-5.73%）。 | 震荡 | 需求超预 | | | 总结：供应端，澳洲和巴西发运回升，到港量转增，季末和财年末供应端存 | 670-730 | 期、宏观 | | | 在继续冲量的情况。需求方面， ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月18日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3090 | 3090 | O | 116 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | O | 226 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3170 | 3180 | -10 | 186 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2974 | 2989 | -15 | 116 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2981 | 2990 | -д | 109 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2974 | 2985 | -11 | 116 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | ਰੇਰੇ | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 19 | | | 热卷现货(华 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年4月24日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 即值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3180 | 3190 | -10 | 40 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3190 | 3190 | O | 50 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3270 | 3280 | -10 | 130 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3030 | 3059 | -29 | 150 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3106 | 3137 | -31 | 74 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3140 | 3166 | -26 | 40 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3240 | 3270 | -30 | / | | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3220 | 3220 | O | -13 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...