1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in overseas shipments and a decline in arrivals last week, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The demand side witnessed good resumption of production in steel mills last week, with the molten iron output continuing to rise, and the daily average molten iron reaching over 2.41 million tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the firmness of the spot market [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' resumption of production expanded, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The daily average molten iron reached over 2.41 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.75 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 171900 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 48.91 percentage points [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, and arrivals declined, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3573100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816900 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2977800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 648200 tons. The Australian shipments were 2084600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 262200 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1836200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 304900 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 893200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 386000 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2850800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 583800 tons. The Australian shipments were 1981600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 202000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1736700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244500 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 869300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 381800 tons. In terms of inventory, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports across the country was 143816800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 744400 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3510300 tons, an increase of 664000 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News No relevant content provided. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, consumption, and other aspects of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the steel mill's profit per ton of steel, the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss situation, etc. [9][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, with significant declines in steel profits. There are expectations of seasonal demand improvement from September to October, but high production levels still pose a challenge to the demand - absorbing capacity during the peak season. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and steel demand during the peak season. Investment strategies include selling out - of - the - money put options and considering long positions in the steel - iron ore ratio [1]. - Regarding the iron ore industry, the current fundamentals lack a strong upward driver. Although the iron water output may decline slightly around the parade, it will remain at a relatively high level in September. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. The strategy is to view it as a range - bound market, with the range reference of 750 - 810, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [3][4]. - In the coke industry, the futures market has shown volatile and downward trends. The supply will gradually become looser after the end of short - term production restrictions, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, the futures market is oscillating weakly. The supply - demand situation has eased, and prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and consider the arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Most steel prices have declined, with the exception of some contracts and regions where prices remained unchanged. For example, the spot price of rebar in the East China region dropped by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of the rebar 10 - contract increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, while profits have declined significantly. For instance, the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 36 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average iron water output decreased by 0.7 tons (- 0.3%), while the output of five major steel products increased by 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 1.9%, with the rebar inventory rising by 2.7% [1]. Market Analysis - In August, the supply - demand gap widened, and inventory accumulation was obvious. Entering September - October, there are expectations of seasonal demand improvement. However, high production levels still test the demand - absorbing capacity during the peak season [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of most iron ore varieties has increased significantly, and the 5 - 9 spread has widened. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton (351.5%) [3]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 7.3% week - on - week, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 5.5%. The demand side saw a decline in iron water output and a decrease in the average daily port clearance volume [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased slightly by 0.1%, while the inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6% [3]. Market Analysis - The fundamentals currently lack a strong upward driver. Although the iron water output may decline slightly around the parade, it will remain at a relatively high level in September. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal prices have shown different trends. Coke futures prices have fluctuated and declined, while coking coal futures prices have oscillated weakly. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [5]. Profit - Coking profits and sample coal mine profits have both decreased. The weekly coking profit decreased by 11, and the weekly sample coal mine profit decreased by 4 [5]. Supply and Demand - Coke supply has decreased due to production restrictions, and demand has also declined with the decrease in iron water output. Coking coal supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension, and demand has decreased due to steel and coking production restrictions [5]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories have shown different trends. Coke inventories have increased slightly overall, while coking coal inventories have decreased slightly in some sectors and increased in others [5]. Market Analysis - Coke supply will gradually become looser after the end of short - term production restrictions, and there is a possibility of price decline. Coking coal supply - demand has eased, and prices may continue to fall in September [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Yesterday, black commodities declined significantly, with iron ore and coking coal showing signs of catch - up decline. In August, steel apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and the supply - demand gap widened, leading to obvious inventory accumulation. The rebar market weakened first, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widened. - Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. However, high production levels still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. - Currently, steel prices have fallen from their highs. Rebar and hot - rolled coils have dropped to around 3100 yuan/ton and 3300 yuan/ton respectively, and the profit per ton of steel has declined significantly. - In terms of operations, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited. One can sell out - of - the - money put options. Considering the significant contraction of steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, one can consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global shipment volume of iron ore has increased significantly month - on - month to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume will continue to increase gradually in the short term. - During the military parade in Tangshan, production restrictions and maintenance increased slightly, and the molten iron output decreased slightly from its high but remained at around 2.4 million tons per day. The impact of production restrictions this week will be reflected in molten iron output. - In terms of inventory, port inventory decreased slightly, the outbound shipment volume decreased month - on - month, and steel mills' equity iron ore inventory decreased month - on - month. - After the military parade, molten iron output will decline slightly from its high, but the impact is not significant. Currently, there is no strong driving force for a significant increase in the fundamentals. Since steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, molten iron output will remain at a high level in September. - On the 28th, the work plan for stabilizing growth in the steel industry was released, proposing to strictly prohibit new production capacity and implement production reduction to control the total volume. The demand during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" period is questionable. - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Coke futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. After the spot price increase, it has temporarily stabilized, and the port trade quotation has slightly declined following the futures. - On the supply side, after the price increase was implemented, coking profits improved, but due to production restrictions in Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places, coking enterprise operations decreased slightly. - On the demand side, the molten iron output from blast furnaces has declined from its high. This week, molten iron output may continue to decline, but the impact is limited due to the short duration. - In terms of inventory, coking plants, ports, and steel mills have all seen slight inventory increases. The overall inventory is at a medium level. - The steel industry's work plan for stabilizing growth is negative for coke demand. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures have been fluctuating and falling recently, with sharp price fluctuations. The spot auction price is stable with a weak trend, and the Mongolian coal quotation is running weakly. - On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal mine shutdowns for rectification, coal mine operations have decreased slightly month - on - month, sales have slowed down, and some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has fallen following the futures, and downstream users are cautious about restocking. - On the demand side, due to production restrictions on Tangshan steel and coking in Shandong and Henan before the military parade, coking operations have decreased slightly, and the molten iron output from downstream blast furnaces has declined slightly from its high. This week, operations may continue to decline. - In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and borders have seen slight inventory increases, while coal washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills have seen slight inventory decreases. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. - The production restrictions caused by the shutdown of individual coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi are not enough to reverse the downward trend of the spot price. The coal price may continue to decline in September. It is recommended to short - sell the coking coal 01 contract on rallies for speculation, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in various regions and futures contracts have all declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar decreased from 3208 yuan/ton to 3165 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3347 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 26 yuan/ton to 3173 yuan/ton. - The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 121 yuan/ton, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in North China increased by 22 yuan/ton to 101 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The output of five major steel products increased by 65,000 tons to 8.846 million tons, an increase of 0.7%. Among them, the electric - arc furnace output increased by 15,000 tons to 313,000 tons, an increase of 5.0%, and the converter output increased by 44,000 tons to 1.893 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.247 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased by 164,000 tons to 6.234 million tons, an increase of 2.7%. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 40,000 tons to 3.655 million tons, an increase of 1.1%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 268,000 tons to 14.679 million tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.6 to 8.9, an increase of 6.6%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 48,000 tons to 8.578 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 94,000 tons to 2.042 million tons, an increase of 4.8%. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 5,000 tons to 3.207 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders have decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines decreased by 19.8 yuan/ton to 792.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%. The 01 - contract basis of various iron ore powders has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased by 19.0 to - 58.5, a decrease of 48.1% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port have decreased. For example, the price of Carajás fines at Rizhao Port decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.0%. The prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and the Jinshi 62% Fe index have also slightly decreased [3]. Supply - The arrival volume at 45 ports (weekly) increased by 1.327 million tons to 25.26 million tons, an increase of 5.5%. The global shipment volume (weekly) increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.568 million tons, an increase of 7.3%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 1.315 million tons to 104.623 million tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 0.6 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average outbound shipment volume at 45 ports (weekly) decreased by 71,000 tons to 318,600 tons, a decrease of 2.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.108 million tons to 70.797 million tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 3.526 million tons to 79.658 million tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory decreased by 357,000 tons to 137.6302 million tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58,300 tons to 90.072 million tons, a decrease of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coke products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coke decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1467 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.9%, and the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 1595 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.0% [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 tons to 64.5 tons, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.7 tons to 240.1 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 11,000 tons to 8.875 million tons, a decrease of 0.14%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 9,000 tons to 653,000 tons, an increase of 1.5%, and the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 5,000 tons to 6.101 million tons, an increase of 0.1% [5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The estimated supply - demand gap of coke decreased by 13,000 tons to - 57,000 tons, a decrease of 22.4% [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of various coking coal products and futures contracts have declined. For example, the 09 contract price of coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 943 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.4%, and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1119 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.8% [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines remained unchanged at 860,500 tons, and the clean coal output increased by 18,000 tons to 444,500 tons, an increase of 0.4% [5]. Demand - The coke output (weekly) decreased, which affected the demand for coking coal [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9,000 tons to 116,700 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 51,000 tons to 9.613 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Demand Side**: Last week, the daily average hot metal output remained above 2.4 million tons. Before the parade, maintenance increased, leading to a decline in hot metal output. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, with the daily average hot metal output at 2.4013 million tons [1]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, the overseas shipment volume decreased slightly week - on - week but was at a high level for the same period. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased week - on - week and was at a relatively low level for the same period. The total global iron ore shipment was 33.158 million tons, a decrease of 0.908 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports decreased by 561,800 tons [1]. - **Overall Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak. However, the expectation of restocking after the parade supports the spot price, and the futures price is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3160 | 22 | 0.70 | 17417436 | 2897345 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3346 | - 43 | - 1.27 | 5457540 | 1454760 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 787.5 | 0.5 | 0.06 | 1844920 | 410009 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1151.0 | - 64.5 | - 5.31 | 17695850 | 764344 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1643.0 | - 93.0 | - 5.36 | 344282 | 51526 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The high - level operation of hot metal and the expectation of restocking by steel mills after the parade supported the spot price [4]. - **Spot Market**: The PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 779 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week. The Super Special powder price was 673 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton week - on - week [4]. Industry News - **Real Estate Policy**: Shanghai optimized and adjusted real estate policies, including relaxed purchase restrictions for eligible families outside the outer ring and tax exemptions for non - local residents' first - home purchases [10]. - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: As of August 27, 2 more blast furnaces in 23 sample steel enterprises were under maintenance. More maintenance is expected by the end of the month, which will affect hot metal output [10]. - **Local Government Bonds**: In the first 7 months of this year, China issued 3.3159 trillion yuan in new local government bonds [10]. - **Steel Industry Policy**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan to promote the stable growth of the steel industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity [10]. Related Charts The report provides a series of charts showing the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, as well as steel mill profits, production, inventory, and consumption data [9][11][13]

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are in a weak downward trend. The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar has stopped falling and risen, and the near - month rebar has turned from weak to strong. The spread between the October and January contracts of hot - rolled coils has continued to strengthen. The difference in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils is due to the widening of the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has fallen from a maximum of 290 to around 250 yuan. In August, the supply of rebar increased while demand decreased, especially the demand dropped significantly, which affected the weakening of steel prices, and the decline of rebar was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. - Last week's data showed that rebar production decreased again, and apparent demand stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will decline from a high level. From the perspective of total apparent demand, last week's demand data showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but it was still at an off - season level. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering that steel demand has not stalled and coking coal has not resumed production, it is expected that steel prices will remain in a high - level volatile pattern, but recently steel prices are weaker than iron ore and coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3361 to 3348 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan to 3010 yuan, and the price of slab billets remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan to 3345 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 22 yuan to 133 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig - iron output increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 to 878.1 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 5.8 to 214.7 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.7 to 325.2 tons, an increase of 3.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 to 1441.0 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8%. Rebar inventory increased by 19.8 to 607.0 tons, a growth rate of 3.4%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 to 361.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 9.1 tons, with a growth rate of 9.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 22.0 to 853.0 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 4.9 to 194.8 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5 to 321.3 tons, a growth rate of 2.1% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the 2601 contract of iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore has declined from a high level on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future will increase periodically. - On the demand side, last week, the profit margin of steel mills was at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and pig - iron output increased slightly at a high level and remained at around 240,000 tons per day. It is expected that pig - iron output will decrease this week due to production in Tangshan. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the apparent demand of downstream products has increased on a month - on - month basis recently, which supports steel prices. - In terms of inventory, port inventory has decreased slightly, the port clearance volume has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Looking forward, pig - iron output will decline slightly at a high level at the end of August. The market sentiment was overdrawn by the futures price increase on Monday. Currently, the fundamentals are difficult to drive a significant increase, so the price rose on Tuesday and then fell back. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, and pig - iron output will increase, which will support raw materials. Coupled with the relatively low port inventory compared to the same period last year and the high daily consumption of steel mills, the futures price still has a basis for rebound. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and an iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread is recommended for arbitrage [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 19.2 to 40.7 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 112.2%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 43.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.0, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of most iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of Jinbuba powder decreased by 2 yuan to 725.0 yuan/ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap decreased by 0.3 to 101.7 dollars/ton, and the price of the Platts 62% Fe decreased by 1.1 to 102.0 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 83.3 to 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 3.4%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 90.8 to 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9 to 325.7 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 46.5 to 13798.68 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 to 9065.5 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [3]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints Coke - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot price of coke has risen after the seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotation has followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of the price increase, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. On the demand side, the pig - iron output from blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand still has resilience. It is expected that pig - iron output will decline slightly in August due to production restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory has decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still have a need to replenish inventory, and the arrival of goods is delayed, so they finally accepted the seventh - round price increase of coke. Yesterday, the futures price decreased, and the futures price has a slight premium for wet - quenched coke but is at a discount to the warehouse - receipt cost of dry - quenched coke, and the hedging space has narrowed. Production restrictions in Tangshan are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. The short - term supply - demand tightness will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the supply of coke will gradually become looser. The futures price has recently followed the decline of coking coal. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Coking Coal - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking - coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction price is stable to weak, and the Mongolian - coal quotation has decreased slightly. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal - mine production - suspension rectifications, the coal - mine start - up rate has decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and shipments have slowed down. Coal mines are selling at a reduced profit, the market supply - demand situation has eased, some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, and the price of imported Mongolian coal has followed the decline of futures. Due to the relatively high price, downstream users have been cautious about replenishing inventory recently. On the demand side, the start - up rate of coking has increased slightly, the pig - iron output from downstream blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream demand for inventory replenishment has slowed down. Considering the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the military parade, pig - iron output will decline periodically at the end of August. In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and steel mills have slightly increased their inventory, while coal - washing plants and coking plants have slightly decreased their inventory. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market has stabilized after a slight correction. The approaching delivery of the near - month contract exerts some pressure on the 09 contract, and the far - month valuation still has a premium over the near - month Mongolian - coal warehouse receipt. The mine accident in Fujian and the production - suspension of some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi have triggered expectations of production restrictions, which drove the price increase on Monday, but the spot market is still running weakly and stably, and the price has given back the previous rebound in the past two trading days. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1610 to 1601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1681 to 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. For coking coal, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1031 to 1012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1161 to 1154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The raw - coal output of sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 860.4 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean - coal output increased by 3.4 to 442.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [6]. Demand - The weekly pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 888.6 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.9 to 64.4 tons, a growth rate of 3.04%, the steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 0.2 to 609.6 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5 to 214.6 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 5.7 to 117.6 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%, the coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 10.5 to 966.4 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the steel - mill coking - coal inventory increased by 6.5 to 812.3 tons, a growth rate of 0.8% [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, and short - term market sentiment was volatile. As the previous price reached a phased high, the factors driving further price increases weakened, and the market may shift to the relatively rapid weakening of terminal steel demand. Short - term iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate [3]. - The trading strategy suggests that for single - side trading, it will be in a volatile state, and high - level hedging of spot is the main approach; for arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Core Logic**: Mainstream iron ore shipments were stable. Due to the low base in the same period last year, there was a certain year - on - year increase from the third quarter to date this year, but the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down. Non - mainstream ore shipments remained at a high level year - on - year in July and August, contributing incremental shipments. On the demand side, the growth rates of manufacturing and infrastructure investment weakened in July. The demand for construction steel continued to be weak, and the recent demand for manufacturing steel weakened rapidly month - on - month, suppressing terminal steel demand. Overseas iron element consumption increased by 1.8% year - on - year in the first half of the year, and overseas steel demand remained at a relatively high level [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: - **Single - side**: Iron ore prices will fluctuate, and high - level hedging of spot is the main strategy. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [3]. Iron Ore Supply Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 3025 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%/460 tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 1754 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%/560 tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 726 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%/800 tons. This week, global shipments decreased by 15 tons month - on - month and increased by 82 tons year - on - year [8][9]. - **Mainstream Ore Shipment in Australia and Brazil**: Since 2025, Rio Tinto's shipments have decreased by 1.8%/330 tons year - on - year, BHP's by 0.6%/110 tons, FMG's have increased by 5.8%/660 tons, and VALE's by 0.4%/60 tons. Rio Tinto's shipment recovery is slow. The third - quarter global iron ore shipments are in a seasonal off - season, and the year - on - year increase is expected to slow down [11]. - **Non - mainstream Ore Shipment**: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 544 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%/210 tons. Australia's non - mainstream weekly shipments decreased by 9.4%/770 tons year - on - year, while Brazil's increased by 13%/740 tons. In July, non - mainstream ore shipments remained at a high level year - on - year, contributing nearly 400 tons of incremental shipments, and it is expected to continue to contribute in August [19]. Iron Ore Inventory Analysis - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore increased by more than 100 tons month - on - month, the congestion decreased rapidly, the total inventory of iron ore in steel mills increased slightly month - on - month, and the total inventory of imported iron ore in China remained basically unchanged month - on - month. The total inventory of imported iron ore has been basically flat in the past month, and the total inventory of terminal steel has continued to rise month - on - month, resulting in a slight increase in the total domestic iron element inventory. The current iron ore supply - demand fundamentals have weakened slightly [28]. Terminal Demand Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: From July 2025 to date, domestic pig iron production increased by 2%/230 tons year - on - year, and crude steel production increased by 2.6%/360 tons. Among them, the apparent demand for building materials decreased by 6.6%/390 tons year - on - year, and the non - building materials apparent demand increased by 2%/140 tons. The domestic crude steel consumption decreased by 2%/250 tons year - on - year (excluding exports). The demand for manufacturing steel has weakened rapidly month - on - month, and the demand for construction steel has continued to be weak [30][31]. - **Overseas Demand**: In the first half of the year, overseas iron element consumption increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and India's crude steel production increased by 9.2% year - on - year. Overseas steel demand remained at a relatively high level, and it is expected that India's steel demand will continue to contribute a large increment in the third quarter [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak as recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, this weak demand trend is likely to continue. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [1][4][6]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3610 tons to 337,800 tons [1][5][6]. - Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and expectations rising, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures were strong last week, and the macro - sentiment improved. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 748 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 635 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 113 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, the iron ore demand is expected to remain weak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 1.20 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 22.94 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.65 million tons, a decrease of 4.173 million tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 14.537 million tons, a decrease of 3.231 million tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.61 tons to 337,800 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development recently stated during a research trip to Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces that it will take multiple measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and resolve risks, and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [11]. - On July 7th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period, postponing the implementation time from July 9th to August 1st [11]. - On July 9th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, relevant officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China's GDP in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan. In the next step, China will adhere to the principle of moderate advancement without excessive advancement, continuously strengthen the foundation, leverage advantages, address weaknesses, and enhance capabilities, and promote the modern infrastructure system to reach a higher level [11]. - The General Office of the State Council recently issued a notice on further strengthening policy support for stable employment, proposing policy measures from seven aspects to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote high - quality economic development [11]. - US President Trump issued letters to Mexico and the EU, announcing that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipments of iron ore, steel products, etc., such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends of these products, steel mill profits, and iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil [10][12][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro - geopolitical situation boosts energy prices, providing support. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. However, the demand for rebar in the off - season is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks. Hot - rolled coil demand shows some resilience, and its inventory turns from increasing to decreasing. Steel prices still face the pressure of short - term supply - demand weakening, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil rebounds, and the arrival volume increases. Currently, steel mills' profits are good, and the daily output of molten iron increases. But as the off - season deepens, the terminal demand weakens, and the supply increment may be greater than the demand increment. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For coking coal and coke, as some previously减产 mines resume production, the production of coking coal increases slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke starts, and the daily output of molten iron increases, giving some support to coking coal and coke. The prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Geopolitical situations disturb the market, and steel prices oscillate at a low level. The energy price increase provides support for commodities. The industry continues to reduce inventory, with rebar inventory reduction slowing down and hot - rolled coil inventory turning from increasing to decreasing. Market transactions are concentrated in the low - price area [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output is 212.18 tons (up 2.22% month - on - month, down 7.96% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output is 325.45 tons (up 0.25% month - on - month, up 1.47% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increases while electric furnace output decreases [16][18][23]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate is 83.82% (up 0.49% month - on - month, up 2.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate is 70.93% (down 4.16% month - on - month, up 0.75% year - on - year) [28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is + 155 yuan/ton (up 14.81% week - on - week, up 59.79% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is + 100 yuan/ton (up 66.67% week - on - week, up 4.17% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 219.19 tons (down 0.35% month - on - month, down 7.04% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 330.69 tons (up 3.38% month - on - month, up 3.68% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 551.07 tons (down 1.26% month - on - month, down 28.95% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 340.17 tons (down 1.52% month - on - month, down 18.15% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: Real estate sales volume increases slightly at a low level, and land market transactions decrease month - on - month. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 3009.8 tons (up 8.81% month - on - month, up 6.25% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2562.7 tons (up 7.47% month - on - month, up 3.63% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron is 242.18 tons (up 0.57 tons month - on - month, up 2.24 tons year - on - year), and the port dredging volume is 313.56 tons (up 4.09% month - on - month, up 3.21% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports is 13894.16 tons (down 0.28% month - on - month, down 6.92% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8936.24 tons (up 1.56% month - on - month, down 3.02% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines is 84.49% (up 0.93% month - on - month, down 3.41% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants is 61.34% (up 6.94% month - on - month, down 7.86% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 9.52 tons (down 12.31% month - on - month, down 38.27% year - on - year) [77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 23 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.42% (down 0.73% month - on - month, up 0.12% year - on - year) [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking plant coking coal inventory is 665.62 tons (down 0.55% month - on - month, down 10.82% year - on - year), steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.45 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, up 2.37% year - on - year), and coking coal port inventory is 303.31 tons (down 2.79% month - on - month, up 29.34% year - on - year) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Independent coking plant coke inventory is 80.93 tons (down 7.31% month - on - month, up 126.38% year - on - year), steel mill coke inventory is 634.2 tons (down 1.34% month - on - month, up 14.04% year - on - year), and coke port inventory is 203.11 tons (unchanged month - on - month, down 0.12% year - on - year) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1170 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1030 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 720 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil shrinks, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil widens slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke shrinks, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens slightly [105][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a slight strengthening of ferrous metals including steel, but it does not change the loose supply - demand pattern of Chinese steel. The short - term impact on market sentiment may be positive, but the downward trend remains. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but not reverse the downward trend. Suggested operations are to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the spot weakened slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 due to the risk of weakening demand in the off - season [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a rebound to 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is suggested to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a rebound to 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon futures declined. The supply - demand contradiction has increased. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure still exists, and the improvement in supply is insufficient due to weakening demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices and futures contracts declined slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%, and the rebar output decreased by 5.0% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the rebar inventory decreased by 2.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.4% [1]. - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost and spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.3%, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 2.9%. However, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 4.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coke futures decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.2% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal futures decreased slightly, and the 09 basis increased by 11 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines decreased by 0.8%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to increase, and the port inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.5%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 2.3%, and the operating rate decreased by 4.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 3.5%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3.3% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased by 0.9%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferromanganese production increased by 0.9%, and the operating rate increased by 0.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferromanganese demand decreased by 2.9%, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 100.0% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 5.04%, and the average available days of inventory decreased by 1.9% [7].

Market Overview - The mainstream spot prices for iron ore are reported as follows: PB powder at 765 CNY/ton and Brazilian mixed powder at 776 CNY/ton [1] - The main iron ore futures contract increased by 1.06% (+7.5) to close at 714.5 CNY/ton [1] Basis and Costs - The optimal delivery product is Brazilian mixed powder, with warehouse costs for PB powder and Brazilian mixed powder at 810 CNY and 795 CNY respectively. The basis for the 09 contract PB powder is 96 CNY/ton [2] Demand Metrics - Daily average pig iron production is 2.4564 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.22 million tons; the blast furnace operating rate is 84.62%, up by 0.29%; the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking is 92.09%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; and the steel mill profit margin is 58.87%, up by 2.59 percentage points [3] Supply Dynamics - Global shipments have slightly rebounded this week, with a decrease of 21.5 million tons to 30.29 million tons. Shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 24.225 million tons, down by 1.18 million tons. Australian shipments were 17.972 million tons, up by 0.28 million tons, with 15.938 million tons sent to China, an increase of 0.755 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 6.252 million tons, down by 1.46 million tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.546 million tons, down by 0.951 million tons [4] Inventory Levels - As of May 8, the inventory at 45 ports stands at 142.387 million tons, a decrease of 0.6377 million tons; steel mills have slightly resumed production, and the profit margin for steel mills has improved. The imported ore inventory at steel mills decreased by 3.7607 million tons to 89.5898 million tons, as inventory was consumed during the holiday period [5] Market Sentiment and Outlook - The iron ore 09 contract experienced a spike and subsequent pullback, with night trading accelerating upward. The average daily pig iron production has slightly increased week-on-week, maintaining a high level. SMM reports an increase in maintenance at steel mills, with a rise in maintenance for construction materials and hot-rolled coils, suggesting a potential peak in pig iron production. Inventory levels have decreased to a yearly low, with port inventories slightly declining. The outlook for the market indicates that terminal demand for finished steel will determine the sustainability of high pig iron production levels, with marginal changes influenced by exports and infrastructure projects. Current data shows unexpected high exports of steel billets, and SMM's high-frequency steel export data has surged. However, the supply-demand pressure for iron ore is expected to increase in the coming months due to a surge in overseas mine shipments, while macroeconomic sentiment may provide short-term support. The short-term valuation of iron ore is expected to recover, but a bearish outlook is maintained for the medium to long term [6]