终端需求走弱，矿价高位回落 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F 0 3 1 0 5 9 1 7 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 目 录 第一部分：综合分析与交易策略 第二部分：铁矿核心逻辑分析 * [16] A. A. K. K. GALAXY FUTURES 1 投资逻辑与交易策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 逻辑分析：本周铁矿价格宽幅震荡，短期市场情绪面有所反复。基本面方面，主流矿发运平稳，由于去年同期基数偏低，今年三季度 至今同比贡献一定增量，但同比增量有望放缓。7月份非主流矿发运同比持续维持高位，单月同比贡献近400万吨增量（去年同期基数 较低也是一个因素），导致上半年发运减量转为增加。8月份非主流发运同比持续高位，预计会延续贡献一定增量。需求端，7月份制 造业和基建投资增速环比较快走弱，制造业走弱可能是上半年设备更新资金进度较快，而下半年驱动放缓。对比上半年用钢需求来看， 建筑用钢需求环比延续弱势，上半年制造业用钢同比增加超7%，而近期制造业用钢环比较快走弱，对当前终端用钢需求形成一定压制。 海外需求方面，上半年海外铁元素消费量同比增加1.8%，其中印度粗钢产量同比增加9.2%，海外粗钢需求量仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for iron ore is expected to remain weak as recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, this weak demand trend is likely to continue. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [1][4][6]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3610 tons to 337,800 tons [1][5][6]. - Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and expectations rising, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3133 | 61 | 1.99 | 7764666 | 3183357 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3273 | 72 | 2.25 | 2688725 | 1597104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 764.0 | 31.5 | 4.30 | 1646727 | 659915 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 913.0 | 73.5 | 8.76 | 6466818 | 796808 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1519.5 | 86.5 | 6.04 | 132329 | 56526 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures were strong last week, and the macro - sentiment improved. In the spot market, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 748 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 635 yuan/ton, also a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 113 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, recent maintenance work has increased, leading to a week - on - week decrease in hot metal production last week. According to blast furnace shutdown and restart plans, the iron ore demand is expected to remain weak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills last week was 83.15%, a 0.31 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 0.65 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 89.9%, a 0.39 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 1.20 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.74%, a 0.43 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 22.94 - percentage - point increase year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 239.81 tons, a 1.04 - ton decrease from the previous week but a 1.52 - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - On the supply side, overseas shipments decreased week - on - week last week, while arrivals rebounded week - on - week and were at a median level in recent years. It is expected that shipments in July will decrease month - on - month, and inventory pressure may ease slightly. The total global iron ore shipments last week were 29.949 million tons, a decrease of 3.627 million tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.65 million tons, a decrease of 4.173 million tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 14.537 million tons, a decrease of 3.231 million tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 6.624 million tons, a decrease of 2.209 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 143.4689 million tons, a decrease of 1.3901 million tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.61 tons to 337,800 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development recently stated during a research trip to Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces that it will take multiple measures to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and resolve risks, and promote the real - estate market to stop falling and recover [11]. - On July 7th local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to extend the so - called "reciprocal tariff" suspension period, postponing the implementation time from July 9th to August 1st [11]. - On July 9th, at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office, relevant officials from the National Development and Reform Commission stated that China's GDP in 2025 is expected to be around 140 trillion yuan. In the next step, China will adhere to the principle of moderate advancement without excessive advancement, continuously strengthen the foundation, leverage advantages, address weaknesses, and enhance capabilities, and promote the modern infrastructure system to reach a higher level [11]. - The General Office of the State Council recently issued a notice on further strengthening policy support for stable employment, proposing policy measures from seven aspects to stabilize employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations, and promote high - quality economic development [11]. - US President Trump issued letters to Mexico and the EU, announcing that starting from August 1st, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on products imported from Mexico and the EU [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and shipments of iron ore, steel products, etc., such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the basis trends of these products, steel mill profits, and iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil [10][12][15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro - geopolitical situation boosts energy prices, providing support. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. However, the demand for rebar in the off - season is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks. Hot - rolled coil demand shows some resilience, and its inventory turns from increasing to decreasing. Steel prices still face the pressure of short - term supply - demand weakening, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil rebounds, and the arrival volume increases. Currently, steel mills' profits are good, and the daily output of molten iron increases. But as the off - season deepens, the terminal demand weakens, and the supply increment may be greater than the demand increment. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For coking coal and coke, as some previously减产 mines resume production, the production of coking coal increases slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke starts, and the daily output of molten iron increases, giving some support to coking coal and coke. The prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Geopolitical situations disturb the market, and steel prices oscillate at a low level. The energy price increase provides support for commodities. The industry continues to reduce inventory, with rebar inventory reduction slowing down and hot - rolled coil inventory turning from increasing to decreasing. Market transactions are concentrated in the low - price area [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output is 212.18 tons (up 2.22% month - on - month, down 7.96% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output is 325.45 tons (up 0.25% month - on - month, up 1.47% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increases while electric furnace output decreases [16][18][23]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate is 83.82% (up 0.49% month - on - month, up 2.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate is 70.93% (down 4.16% month - on - month, up 0.75% year - on - year) [28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is + 155 yuan/ton (up 14.81% week - on - week, up 59.79% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is + 100 yuan/ton (up 66.67% week - on - week, up 4.17% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 219.19 tons (down 0.35% month - on - month, down 7.04% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 330.69 tons (up 3.38% month - on - month, up 3.68% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 551.07 tons (down 1.26% month - on - month, down 28.95% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 340.17 tons (down 1.52% month - on - month, down 18.15% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: Real estate sales volume increases slightly at a low level, and land market transactions decrease month - on - month. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 3009.8 tons (up 8.81% month - on - month, up 6.25% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2562.7 tons (up 7.47% month - on - month, up 3.63% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron is 242.18 tons (up 0.57 tons month - on - month, up 2.24 tons year - on - year), and the port dredging volume is 313.56 tons (up 4.09% month - on - month, up 3.21% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports is 13894.16 tons (down 0.28% month - on - month, down 6.92% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8936.24 tons (up 1.56% month - on - month, down 3.02% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines is 84.49% (up 0.93% month - on - month, down 3.41% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants is 61.34% (up 6.94% month - on - month, down 7.86% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 9.52 tons (down 12.31% month - on - month, down 38.27% year - on - year) [77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 23 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.42% (down 0.73% month - on - month, up 0.12% year - on - year) [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking plant coking coal inventory is 665.62 tons (down 0.55% month - on - month, down 10.82% year - on - year), steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.45 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, up 2.37% year - on - year), and coking coal port inventory is 303.31 tons (down 2.79% month - on - month, up 29.34% year - on - year) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Independent coking plant coke inventory is 80.93 tons (down 7.31% month - on - month, up 126.38% year - on - year), steel mill coke inventory is 634.2 tons (down 1.34% month - on - month, up 14.04% year - on - year), and coke port inventory is 203.11 tons (unchanged month - on - month, down 0.12% year - on - year) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1170 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1030 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 720 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil shrinks, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil widens slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke shrinks, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens slightly [105][111].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The conflict between Iran and Israel has led to a slight strengthening of ferrous metals including steel, but it does not change the loose supply - demand pattern of Chinese steel. The short - term impact on market sentiment may be positive, but the downward trend remains. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but not reverse the downward trend. Suggested operations are to short on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated, and the spot weakened slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 due to the risk of weakening demand in the off - season [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the 2509 contract of coke at a rebound to 1380 - 1430 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, and the spot was weakly stable. The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is suggested to short the 2509 contract of coking coal at a rebound to 800 - 850 and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The ferrosilicon futures declined. The supply - demand contradiction has increased. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure still exists, and the improvement in supply is insufficient due to weakening demand. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short - term, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices and futures contracts declined slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of rebar decreased by 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of some steel products changed slightly, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output remained unchanged, while the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%, and the rebar output decreased by 5.0% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7%, the rebar inventory decreased by 2.2%, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.4% [1]. - **Demand**: The building materials trading volume decreased by 16.1%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.6% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost and spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder decreased by 7.7 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased by 7 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.3%, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 2.9%. However, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1%, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 4.1% [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 1.2% [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coke futures decreased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract increased by 6 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 1.6%, and the port inventory decreased by 5.2% [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal futures decreased slightly, and the 09 basis increased by 11 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines decreased by 0.8%, and the clean coal output decreased by 1.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.2%, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1% [6]. - **Inventory**: The coal mine inventory continued to increase, and the port inventory decreased slightly [6]. Ferrosilicon Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferrosilicon decreased by 0.5%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferrosilicon production decreased by 2.3%, and the operating rate decreased by 4.4% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferrosilicon demand decreased by 3.5%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.1% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3.3% [7]. Ferromanganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The futures price of ferromanganese decreased by 0.9%, and the spot price in some regions increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: The ferromanganese production increased by 0.9%, and the operating rate increased by 0.8% [7]. - **Demand**: The ferromanganese demand decreased by 2.9%, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group decreased by 100.0% [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 5.04%, and the average available days of inventory decreased by 1.9% [7].