| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 12.65↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 463.65 | 626.50 | +4.60↑ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) 3179.00 | 10387.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） -3.64↓ 长江钯金现货平均价 431.00 | 606.35 | 6.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -16.29↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -32.65 | -20.15 | 1.40↑ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 3003.00 | | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量:钯金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 293.00 | 220.40 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 最新 | 最新 | 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 铂金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） 11.55↑ 钯金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 589.50 | | 446.55 | -10.35↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:铂金(日,手) -277.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:钯金(日,手) | 10387.00 | | 3179.00 | +90.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 7.58↑ 长江钯金现货平均价 上金所铂金现货价（Pt9995） | 591.60 | | 436.00 | 5.00↑ | | | 铂金主力合约基差(日,元/克) -3.97↓ 钯金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | 2.10 | | -10.55 | 15.35↑ | | 供需情况 | 铂金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） 9966.00 -243.00↓ 钯金CFTC非商业多头持仓（周，张） | | | 3003.00 | -342.00↓ | | | 供应量:铂金:总计(年,吨):2025预计 -0.80↓ 供应量 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Non - farm data exceeded expectations, weakening the expectation of interest rate cuts. London platinum and palladium oscillated weakly, and trading in the Asian session was light approaching holidays, with volatility lower than before. The market has increasing differences in interpreting non - farm data, and Fed officials still have differences in their statements. In the short term, the trend of platinum and palladium may follow that of gold and silver. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may have a phased catch - up opportunity. In the long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm. The supply uncertainty in South Africa and Russia and the implementation of new automobile emission policies make platinum more resilient than palladium, and the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market may continue. The report also gives the resistance and support levels for London platinum and palladium and the expected operating ranges for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum 2606 and palladium 2606 contracts [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 544.90 yuan/gram, down 5.80 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, down 6.45 yuan. The main contract holding volume of platinum was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the main contract holding volume of palladium was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 541.04 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River area was 410.00 yuan/gram, down 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 3.86 yuan/gram, up 1.46 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 20.05 yuan/gram, up 2.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 9,966.00, down 243.00; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in the CFTC (weekly, contracts) were 3,003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 96.93, up 0.07; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.86%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 17.65, down 0.14. The US seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 70,000. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages increased by 0.4% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and traders postponed the bet on Fed rate cuts from June to July [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump said that reaching an agreement with Iran would be the "preferred" choice. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March was 5.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged was 94.1%. The European Parliament voted to pass a financial assistance package for Ukraine, providing 90 billion euros in EU aid loans from 2026 to 2027, with 60 billion euros for Ukraine's defense needs [2]. 3.6 Key Areas of Concern - On March 12, at 21:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7; at 23:00, the total number of existing home sales in the US in January; and at 21:30, the US CPI data for January [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The successful breakthrough in the first - round US - Iran nuclear talks has marginally warmed market sentiment. The rebound in risk appetite has pressured the US dollar to correct, leading to a collective rebound in the precious metals market. The price of the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has risen by over 10%. If the slowdown in employment and inflation is further verified, platinum and palladium may catch up in price with the boost of the financial attributes of gold and silver. In the short term, the trends of platinum and palladium may follow the rhythm of gold and silver, and high - volatility行情 may continue. In the medium - to - long term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm, and the supply - demand pattern differentiation may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum main contract closing price: 545.05 yuan/gram, up 52.15 yuan; palladium main contract closing price: 438.15 yuan/gram, up 30.90 yuan - Platinum main contract open interest: 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium main contract open interest: 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 543.99 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan; Yangtze River palladium spot average price: 428.00 yuan/gram, up 40.00 yuan - Platinum main contract basis: - 1.06 yuan/gram, down 36.15 yuan; palladium main contract basis: - 10.15 yuan/gram, up 9.10 yuan - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - 2025 estimated total platinum supply: 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium supply: 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons - 2025 estimated total platinum demand: 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium demand: 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - US dollar index: 97.61, down 0.35; VIX volatility index: 17.76; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 1.88%, down 0.01 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Oman ended, and the two sides reached a consensus on continuing dialogue. - The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson is "cautiously optimistic" about the US economic outlook. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February in the US reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and the 1 - year inflation expectation dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year. - The People's Bank of China's gold reserves have increased for 15 consecutive months, reaching 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, an increase of 40,000 ounces month - on - month. - US President Trump signed an executive order threatening to impose tariffs on countries that purchase sanctioned Iranian goods and services. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [2] 3.6 Key Points of Concern - US January retail sales data on February 10 at 21:30 - US January non - farm payrolls data on February 11 at 21:30 - US January CPI data on February 13 at 21:30 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue. The platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range fluctuation pattern affected by the gold price. The support level range for London platinum is $1900 - 2000 per ounce, and for London palladium, it is $1500 - 1600 per ounce. [2] - The cooling trend in the US labor market continues, strengthening the medium - term interest rate cut expectation. Against the background of Trump's mid - term election pressure and Wash's past policy flexibility, the Fed's easing path is likely to continue. [2] - The EU's formal postponement of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthening of vehicle exhaust emission standards at the end of last year bring higher platinum loading intensity. Although the global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 540.30 yuan/gram, down 46.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract is 442.70 yuan/gram, down 8.90 yuan. [2] - The holding volume of the platinum main contract is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the holding volume of the palladium main contract is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 546.47 yuan/gram, down 41.63 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 433.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. [2] - The basis of the platinum main contract is 6.17 yuan/gram, up 5.12 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract is - 9.70 yuan/gram, up 24.90 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. [2] - The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. [2] - The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.63, up 0.26; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.02%. [2] - The VIX volatility index is 18.64, up 0.64. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in January slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations. Business activity rebounded, but new order growth slowed, and export orders shrank at the fastest pace since March 2023. Employment hardly expanded, and the price index reached a three - month high. [2] - The US ADP added 22,000 new jobs in January, far lower than the market expectation of 48,000. The previous value was revised down from 41,000 to 37,000. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm employment report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of January CPI on February 13. [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified the official stance on Iran's talks with the US in Oman, saying the negotiation will be held in Muscat, Oman's capital, around 10 a.m. on February 6. [2] - The Fed announced that it will not adjust the capital level of large - scale banks in the 2026 stress - test cycle and is currently considering multiple reforms to improve transparency. [2] - The Eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest level since September 2024. The core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Service inflation slowed to 3.2%. The market expects the European Central Bank to keep rates unchanged this week. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5 at 21:15. [2] - The release time of the US January non - farm employment report is to be determined. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the gold price. In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation of the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are 2000 US dollars per ounce and 1600 US dollars per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan per gram, and the closing price of the palladium main contract was 461.00 yuan per gram, with a daily increase of 27.30 yuan. The main contract positions of platinum decreased by 277.00 hands to 10387.00 hands, while the main contract positions of palladium increased by 90.00 hands to 3179.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 588.10 yuan per gram, with an increase of 21.29 yuan, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 417.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 4.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 16.51 yuan per gram, with a decrease, and the basis of the palladium main contract was - 44.00 yuan per gram, with a decrease of 31.30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in the CFTC (weekly) decreased by 243.00 to 9966.00 contracts, and those of palladium decreased by 342.00. The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, with a decrease of 0.80 tons, and the total annual supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons, with a decrease of 5.00 tons. The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, with an increase of 25.60 tons, and the total annual demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons, with a decrease of 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index decreased by 0.23 to 97.37, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.02 percentage points to 1.92%, and the VIX volatility index increased by 1.66 to 18.00 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - US President Trump signed a government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown. Fed Governor Milan said that the Fed needs to cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year, while Richmond Fed President Barkin emphasized the need for cautious monetary policy. The US White House said that talks with Iran this week will proceed as planned. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in March is 8.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 91.1%. The overseas precious metals market sentiment has warmed up, and the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have strongly rebounded. The EU's delay of the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards are expected to increase the substitution demand for platinum by about 450,000 ounces this year [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - The release time of the US ADP employment data on February 4th is to be determined, and the US January non - farm payrolls report will be released. The European Central Bank's interest rate decision will be announced on February 5th [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium still dominates the trading rhythm in the medium and long term. The uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, combined with the implementation of new automobile emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2800 per ounce and the lower support level of $2600 per ounce; the London palladium should pay attention to the upper resistance level of $2100 per ounce and the lower support level of $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract is 714.10 yuan/gram (up 13.60), and the closing price of the palladium main contract is 526.60 yuan/gram (up 15.10). The main contract position of platinum is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00), and the main contract position of palladium is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00) [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 703.90 yuan/gram (up 33.45), and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 502.00 yuan/gram (up 42.00). The basis of the platinum main contract is - 10.20 yuan/gram (up 19.85), and the basis of the palladium main contract is - 24.60 yuan/gram (up 26.90) [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00 (down 243.00), and those of palladium are 3003.00 (down 342.00). The total supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 0.80), and the total supply of palladium is expected to be 293.00 tons (down 5.00). The total demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons (up 25.60), and the total demand for palladium is expected to be 287.00 tons (down 27.00) [2] 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 96.35 (up 0.59), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.90% (unchanged), and the VIX volatility index is 16.35 (up 0.20) [2] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan. The Fed pointed out that the unemployment rate has shown initial signs of stabilization, inflation remains relatively high, and economic prospects are still highly uncertain. Fed Chair Powell said that raising interest rates is not anyone's basic assumption for the next move, and he doesn't believe the Fed will lose its independence and will advise the next Fed Chair to stay away from politics. - US President Trump threatened Iran again, saying the next attack on Iran will be more severe and a large fleet is heading to Iran. - The minutes of the Bank of Japan's meeting showed that if the outlook meets expectations, it is advisable to continue raising interest rates. Members agreed that even if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates at this meeting, the monetary policy environment will remain loose. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by March is 13.5%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 86.5%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in total by April is 24.1%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 74%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in total is 2.0% [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Boosted by the overall optimistic sentiment in the precious metals market, the London platinum and palladium markets strengthened with fluctuations. At the macro level, the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected, and there is still an expectation of gradually restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. The continuous strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar has increased the holding cost of RMB - denominated platinum and palladium, resulting in the recent overall increase of domestic platinum and palladium prices being weaker than that of the external market. The EU officially postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and simultaneously strengthened automobile exhaust emission standards, bringing higher platinum loading intensity. The substitution demand for platinum in automobile catalysts is expected to increase by about 450,000 ounces this year. Although the global passenger car sales volume is moderately adjusted downward due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen - fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - and long - term demand curve for platinum. The latest hydrogen energy outlook from the IEA also confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolyzers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential elasticity for the platinum price [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - On January 29th, 21:30, the US November trade balance (imports and exports); on January 30th, 21:30, the US PPI year - on - year (%) [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial logic of platinum and palladium will continue to dominate trading in the medium to long term. Due to the uncertainty of power supply in South Africa and exports from Russia, as well as the implementation of new automobile emission policies, platinum is more resilient than palladium. The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum price is expected to face resistance at $2600 per ounce and find support at $2400 per ounce, while the London palladium price may face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main - contract closing price was 619.35 yuan/gram, and palladium's was 490.00 yuan/gram, up 9.45 yuan. Platinum's main - contract open interest was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands, and palladium's was 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 612.53 yuan/gram, and the Yangtze River's palladium spot average price was 438.00 yuan/gram, up 1.00 yuan. Platinum's main - contract basis was - 6.82 yuan/gram, and palladium's was - 52.00 yuan/gram, down 8.45 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the estimated total supply of platinum was 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons, and that of palladium was 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The estimated total demand for platinum was 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons, and that of palladium was 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts, and palladium's were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 98.55, down 0.50. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.97%, up 0.06%. The VIX volatility index was 20.09, up 1.25 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Greenland crisis and fiscal pressure concerns triggered a global bond - market sell - off. The US Treasury Secretary revealed that Trump was close to nominating the next Fed Chair. The European Parliament froze the approval process of a trade agreement with the US. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January was 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 95%. The London platinum price rose above $2460 per ounce, and the platinum - palladium main contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fluctuated. The market's demand for safe - haven assets increased due to the Greenland situation, and the safe - haven premium in the precious - metals market rose. South Africa's power - supply stability improved, but long - term maintenance issues remained [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - January 22, 21:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ended January 17; US November core PCE price index year - on - year/ month - on - month; US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate final value. January 23, 07:30: Japan's December core CPI year - on - year. January 23, 22:45: US January S&P Global manufacturing/services PMI flash. January 23, 23:00: US January University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; US January one - year inflation rate expectation final value [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market may be more affected by the impact of US economic data on the Fed's policy expectations and geopolitical situation disturbances. In the short - term, the influence of news is weakening, the market maintains a relatively strong shock but the volatility declines. For gold, those holding long positions above the 20 - day moving average can continue to hold, and selling out - of - the - money put options can earn time value [1]. - For silver, the cancellation of photovoltaic export tax rebates by the country after April 1 may bring the "rush to export" effect again, advancing the demand for silver powder and intensifying the supply - structural shortage. Short - term fluctuations are still volatile, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips with light positions, while long positions should lock in profits in time when the price is high [1]. - For platinum and palladium, due to their strong macro and supply - demand fundamentals and the fact that their prices are still undervalued compared to gold, capital promotes value reshaping. It is expected to continue to rise in the medium - and long - term. In the short - term, market speculative sentiment weakens, the volatility narrows, but it still follows the relatively strong shock of gold. It is recommended to buy platinum on dips with light positions around the 20 - day moving average [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2602 contract closed at 1035.20 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.52% from the previous day [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 22665 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.43% from the previous day [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram on January 15, down 2.21% from the previous day [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 478.60 yuan/gram on January 15, down 5.25% from the previous day [1]. Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 4620.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.29% from the previous day [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 92.21 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.05% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2415.80 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.55% from the previous day [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1865.50 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Spot Prices - London gold was at 4615.52 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - London silver was at 92.40 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 0.65% from the previous day [1]. - Spot platinum was at 2408.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, up 0.46% from the previous day [1]. - Spot palladium was at 1812.00 dollars/ounce on January 15, down 1.79% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange gold T + D was at 1033.92 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver T + D was at 22684 yuan/kilogram on January 15, down 0.36% from the previous day [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum 9995 was at 597 yuan/gram on January 15, down 0.34% from the previous day [1]. Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 1.28, up 1.73 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was 19, up 17 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 4.98, up 2.82 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 87.80% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was 0.19, up 0.37 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 90.00% [1]. Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 50.11 on January 15, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver was 45.67 on January 15, down 0.09% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29 on January 15, up 1.46% from the previous day [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum/palladium was 1.27 on January 15, up 3.21% from the previous day [1]. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.17% on January 15, up 0.5% from the previous day [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.56% on January 15, up 1.4% from the previous day [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.88% on January 15, up 1.1% from the previous day [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.34 on January 15, up 0.27% from the previous day [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9631 on January 15, down 0.12% from the previous day [1]. Inventory and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 100152 kilograms on January 15, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 638399 kilograms on January 15, up 1.54% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 36132901 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 433382110 ounces on January 15, down 0.23% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 18838070 ounces on January 15, down 2.31% from the previous day [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 122741960 ounces on January 15, down 0.20% from the previous day [1]. - The SPDR gold ETF position was 1075 tons on January 15, up 0.05% from the previous day [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 16062 tons on January 15, down 1.11% from the previous day [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market continues its strong trend. The silver squeeze has spread to other precious and non - ferrous metals, with high short - term volatility. The supply shortage of platinum provides key support to its price, while the demand for palladium is weakening, turning the market from short of supply to surplus. In the short - term, the situation between the US and Venezuela may support platinum and palladium prices. In the long - run, the "platinum strong, palladium weak" trend may continue. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 622.80 yuan/gram, up 27.70 yuan; palladium's is 505.10 yuan/gram, up 17.50 yuan. - Platinum's main contract open interest is 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; palladium's is 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of platinum spot (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 612.94 yuan/gram, up 20.12 yuan; the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 445.00 yuan/gram, up 16.00 yuan. - The basis of platinum's main contract is - 9.86 yuan/gram, down 7.58 yuan; that of palladium is - 60.10 yuan/gram, down 1.50 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium's are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. - The estimated total supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; that of palladium is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. - The estimated total demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; that of palladium is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons. [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.74, up 0.14; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.88%, down 0.03%. - The VIX volatility index is 15.38, up 0.63. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US Supreme Court didn't rule on Trump's tariffs on January 9, with the next announcement on January 14. The government is ready to re - impose tariffs if the ruling goes against. - The Fed's January 2026 rate - cut expectation is dashed. The US non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than expected. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in January is 54, a four - month high. The inflation expectation for the next year is 4.2%. - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 4.4%, and 95.6% for unchanged rates. By March, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 27.6%, 71.3% for unchanged rates, and 1.1% for a 50 - basis - point cut. [2] 3.6 Key Points to Follow - January 13, 21:30: US December unadjusted CPI year - on - year, PPI year - on - year, and core retail sales month - on - month. - January 15, 01:00: Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate. - January 15, 20:30: European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting minutes. [2]