1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US's tough actions against Venezuela have temporarily boosted market risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a strong performance in the precious metals market, with significant rebounds in the platinum and palladium futures contracts on both domestic and international exchanges [2]. - Platinum is expected to maintain strong resilience due to the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the long - term expansion of demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy [2]. - The demand for palladium is expected to weaken due to its over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is gradually shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support its price, and its current low price may make it a cost - effective choice again [2]. - In the short term, the situation between the US and Venezuela increases the risk - aversion premium, attracting risk - aversion funds into the precious metals market and potentially supporting prices. In the medium to long term, the differentiation in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2]. - For the running range, the upper resistance level for London platinum is $2400 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1900 per ounce; the upper resistance level for London palladium is $1800 per ounce, and the lower support level is $1500 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 471.90, up 23.15; the closing price of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is 616.80, up 35.00 [2]. - The position of the platinum main contract (daily, lots) is 10387.00, down 277.00; the position of the palladium main contract (daily, lots) is 3179.00, up 90.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of Yangtze River palladium is 605.53, up 31.88; the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) is 419.00, up 6.00 [2]. - The basis of the palladium main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 11.27, down 3.12; the basis of the platinum main contract (daily, yuan/gram) is - 52.90, down 17.15 [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The CFTC non - commercial long positions of palladium (weekly, contracts) are 9966.00, down 243.00; the CFTC non - commercial long positions of platinum (weekly, contracts) are 3003.00, down 342.00 [2]. - The total supply of palladium (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 220.40, down 0.80; the total supply of platinum (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 293.00, down 5.00 [2]. - The total demand for platinum (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 261.60, up 25.60; the total demand for palladium (annual, tons) in 2025 is expected to be 287.00, down 27.00 [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index is 98.46, up 0.21; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.94%, up 0.01 [2]. - The VIX volatility index is 14.51, down 0.44 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Venezuelan President Maduro made his first appearance in the US Southern District of New York Federal Court, pleading "not guilty" to the US "accusations", and was required by the US judge to appear in court again on March 17 [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders are still weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [2]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that if the economic and price trends meet the central bank's expectations, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates. He also said that the Japanese economy achieved a moderate recovery last year despite the impact of US tariff hikes on corporate profits [2]. - Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen warned that a "fiscal dominance" scenario is brewing, where a large debt scale may force the central bank to keep interest rates low to reduce debt - servicing costs rather than focus on curbing inflation. The US Congressional Budget Office estimates that the US deficit will reach $1.9 trillion this year, and the debt - to - GDP ratio will rise to 100% and continue to climb [2]. 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI on January 6 at 23:00 [2] - The US ADP employment report on January 7 at 21:15 [2] - The US December non - farm payrolls report on January 9 at 21:30 [2]

Group 1 - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is keeping the dollar at low levels, while domestic industrial profits for November show a significant year-on-year decline, leading to market anticipation of favorable policies in Q1 next year [1] - Basic metals experienced a notable pullback in the afternoon session after initial gains, with Shanghai aluminum leading the rise at 0.83%, followed by lead at 0.78%, copper at 0.76%, zinc at 0.54%, while tin and nickel saw declines of 0.99% and 0.86% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - In the futures market, copper closed at 98,860 with an increase of 750, or 0.76%, while aluminum rose to 22,570, up 185, or 0.83% [2] - The current spot price for copper ranges from 101,050 to 101,250, with an average of 101,150, reflecting an increase of 3,300 [3] - The outlook for copper indicates a potential price retreat due to weak demand, with expected prices between 97,000 and 99,000 [4] - Zinc prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels, with trading volumes reported at 0-250 tons in Shanghai and 0-150 tons in Tianjin [5] - Lead prices showed a slight increase, closing at 17,490 with a rise of 135, or 0.78%, but market activity remains subdued due to low demand [5] - Tin prices fell to 334,590, down 3,360, or 0.99%, with expectations of fluctuating prices between 325,000 and 355,000 [5] - Nickel prices continue to rise, influenced by ongoing developments in Indonesia, although overall trading activity remains low [5]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core View - The optimistic trading sentiment in the precious metals market continues to boost the platinum and palladium markets. The 2606 main contracts of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange both hit the daily limit after the opening, with palladium falling back during the session. The continuous shortage of physical spot and cross - regional arbitrage trading have significantly amplified the price elasticity of platinum and palladium recently. In the long - term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit pattern, and the expansion of medium - and long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen energy economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new energy vehicles, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price. The prices of platinum and palladium show a parabolic upward trend, and the need for basis repair may increase the short - term correction risk [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 619.95 yuan/gram, up 56.35 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 532.55 yuan/gram, up 27.85 yuan. The platinum main contract's open interest was 10387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the palladium main contract's open interest was 3179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) was 561.61 yuan/gram, up 28.04 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot price increased by 6.00 yuan. The platinum main contract's basis was - 28.31 yuan/gram, down 28.31 yuan; the palladium main contract's basis was - 97.55 yuan/gram, down 21.85 yuan [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Long Positions**: The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions were 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions were 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. 2. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3. Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.26, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.94%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 14.08, down 0.83 [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ukrainian delegation completed negotiations with the US and the 20 - point "peace plan" is in the initial draft stage. Fed Governor Milan said that if the Fed does not continue to cut interest rates next year, it may face the risk of an economic recession. The EU extended economic sanctions against Russia for 6 months until July 31, 2026. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 19.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 80.1%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 44.7%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 47.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.2% [2]. 5. Price Outlook - This week, the London platinum spot price is expected to face resistance at 2300 US dollars/ounce and support at 1800 US dollars/ounce; the London palladium spot price is expected to face resistance at 1900 US dollars/ounce and support at 1600 US dollars/ounce [2]. 6. Key Data to Watch - On December 23 at 21:30, the US GDP deflator quarter - on - quarter (%) will be released; on December 24 at 21:30, the US initial jobless claims will be released [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has driven the prices of platinum - group metals to continue rising, with the price of London platinum hitting a new record high. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, platinum prices may continue to be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the structural supply - demand deficit pattern, and the expected expansion of long - term demand in the hydrogen economy. However, the demand outlook for palladium is weakening due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. The palladium market is shifting from a supply shortage to a surplus, but the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may provide some support for its price [2]. - Given the significant recent price increases in the precious - metal market, short - term correction risks should be noted. Specific price ranges for different contracts and spot prices are provided [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 485.75 yuan/gram, up 11.65 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 10,387 hands, down 277 hands [2]. - Palladium: The closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.85 yuan/gram, up 19.15 yuan. The main - contract holding volume was 3,179 hands, up 90 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Platinum: The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was 471.32 yuan/gram, up 4.47 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 14.43 yuan/gram, down 7.18 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC (weekly) were 9,966 contracts, down 243 contracts [2]. - Palladium: The spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River market was 385 yuan/gram, up 19 yuan. The basis of the palladium main contract was - 38.85 yuan/gram, down 0.15 yuan. The non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC (weekly) were 3,003 contracts, down 342 contracts [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Platinum: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 220.4 tons, down 0.8 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 261.6 tons, up 25.6 tons [2]. - Palladium: The total annual supply in 2025 is expected to be 293 tons, down 5 tons. The total annual demand in 2025 is expected to be 287 tons, down 27 tons [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - The US dollar index was 98.28, down 0.12. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.93%, unchanged. The VIX volatility index was 16.50, up 0.76 [2]. - US economic data: The December New York Fed Manufacturing Index was - 3.9 (expected 9.7, previous 18.7); the December NAHB Housing Market Index was 39 (expected 38, previous 38) [2]. - Fed officials' statements: Williams expects the US unemployment rate to fall to 4.5% by the end of 2025, noting increased labor - market risks and eased inflation risks. Milan believes the Fed's policy stance is an unnecessary constraint on the economy, and supports larger - scale interest - rate cuts in the future [2]. - CME "FedWatch": The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 43.5%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 47.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 9.1% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts has pushed up the prices of platinum - group metals. The recent price increases of platinum and palladium are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The tightening of physical supply and increased ETF holdings of palladium have exacerbated the supply - demand contradiction, while large basis and spread differences have spurred arbitrage [2]. 3.6 Key Points of Attention - On December 16, at 21:30, the US November non - farm payrolls report will be released. At 23:00, the US Markit S&P Global PMI (services & manufacturing) will be released [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in silver prices, with spot silver rising by 4.34% to $60.6777 per ounce, and reaching a historical high of $60.8305 per ounce [1] - COMEX silver futures also saw a notable increase of 4.78%, closing at $61.205 per ounce, and hitting a new high of $61.295 per ounce in after-hours trading [1] - In contrast, COMEX copper futures experienced a decline of 1.98%, settling at $5.3365 per pound, indicating a period of low volatility and downward movement [1] Group 2 - The article reports that spot platinum increased by 2.62%, reaching $1697.12 per ounce, while spot palladium rose by 2.41%, closing at $1511.46 per ounce [1]