Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The strengthening of the US dollar index may slow down the upward pace of Shanghai copper prices, despite expectations of Fed rate cuts, fiscal easing in multiple countries, and disruptions in overseas copper mine production. Pre - existing long positions should be held cautiously, or new long positions can be established after price corrections. Attention should be paid to support and resistance levels for Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 86,750, up 3,640 from the previous period. The trading volume was 137,816 lots, a decrease of 18,253 lots. The open interest was 221,715 lots, an increase of 7,856 lots. The inventory was 29,703 tons, an increase of 2,880 tons. The Shanghai copper basis was - 1,010, a decrease of 1,140 [2] - **SMM Copper - related Prices**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 85,740, up 2,500. The average price of SMM flat - copper premium/discount was - 5, an increase of 25. The average price of SMM premium - copper premium/discount was 80, an increase of 10 [2] - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on October 9, 2025, was 10,776.5, up 75.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 24.9, an increase of 4.62. The LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 94.17, an increase of 24.45 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on October 9, 2025, was 5.14, up 0.051. The total inventory was 661,883, an increase of 4,585 [2] 2. Important Information - It is expected that by 2025, the top 20 global copper mines will contribute about 36% of global production, but most mines face geological, operational, and social challenges. BMI has significantly raised the forecast of the copper supply gap in 2026 from 72,000 tons to 400,000 tons. Citibank warns that if copper prices cannot effectively stimulate new production capacity, a supply shortage may occur in 2027 [2] 3. Long - Short Logic - **Supply Side**: There are disruptions in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, tightening the supply - demand expectations of domestic copper concentrates. The expected increase in scrap copper supply has led to a slight increase in the processing fees of domestic crude copper or anode plates, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in October has increased month - on - month [2] - **Demand Side**: The sharp rise in copper prices has made downstream buyers purchase mainly based on rigid demand [2] - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper has increased compared to last week, the inventory of LME electrolytic copper has decreased, and the inventory of COMEX copper has increased [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Hold pre - existing long positions cautiously or establish new long positions after price corrections. Pay attention to the support level of 77,000 - 80,000 and the resistance level of 86,000 - 89,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,500 - 10,200 and the resistance level of 11,000 - 12,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.0 - 4.5 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [2]

今日， $江西铜业股份 (00358.HK)$ 股价涨超7%，8月初至今累涨近140%。截至发稿，涨7.61%，报37.88港元，成交额12.76亿港元。 消息面上，Grasberg铜矿停产事件预计将导致2025年四季度至2026年间铜供应缺口进一步扩大。此外，中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼 行业"内卷式"竞争。机构称，冶炼产能过剩未来有望缓解，冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。公开资料显示，江西铜业为国内铜冶炼龙头，阴极铜年产能达 210万吨，铜业务收入占比超70%。 江西铜业A股涨停，最新报39.04元。 值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道，巴拿马正准备与第一量子矿业公司就可能重启其关闭的科布雷巴拿马铜矿展开谈判，预计该矿将于今年年底或2026年初重 启。据悉，江西铜业股份是第一量子最大股东，自2024年开始，江西铜业将持有的第一量子投资由金融工具投资转换为长期股权投资权益法核算。如果巴拿 马铜矿复产，将显著增厚公司利润。 编辑/KOKO ...

值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道，巴拿马正准备与第一量子矿业公司就可能重启其关闭的科布雷巴拿马 铜矿展开谈判，预计该矿将于今年年底或2026年初重启。据悉，江西铜业股份是第一量子最大股东，自 2024年开始，江西铜业将持有的第一量子投资由金融工具投资转换为长期股权投资权益法核算。如果巴 拿马铜矿复产，将显著增厚公司利润。 江西铜业（600362）股份(00358)再涨近8%，8月初至今累涨近140%。截至发稿，涨6.14%，报37.36港 元，成交额12.04亿港元。 消息面上，Grasberg铜矿停产事件预计将导致2025年四季度至2026年间铜供应缺口进一步扩大。此外， 中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。机构称，冶炼产能过剩未来有 望缓解，冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。公开资料显示，江西铜业为国内铜冶炼龙头，阴极铜年产能 达210万吨，铜业务收入占比超70%。 ...

消息面上，Grasberg铜矿停产事件预计将导致2025年四季度至2026年间铜供应缺口进一步扩大。此外， 中国有色金属工业协会铜业分会表示坚决反对铜冶炼行业"内卷式"竞争。机构称，冶炼产能过剩未来有 望缓解，冶炼企业后续盈利有望迎来改善。公开资料显示，江西铜业为国内铜冶炼龙头，阴极铜年产能 达210万吨，铜业务收入占比超70%。 值得注意的是，近期有媒体报道，巴拿马正准备与第一量子矿业公司就可能重启其关闭的科布雷巴拿马 铜矿展开谈判，预计该矿将于今年年底或2026年初重启。据悉，江西铜业股份是第一量子最大股东，自 2024年开始，江西铜业将持有的第一量子投资由金融工具投资转换为长期股权投资权益法核算。如果巴 拿马铜矿复产，将显著增厚公司利润。 智通财经APP获悉，江西铜业股份(00358)再涨近8%，8月初至今累涨近140%。截至发稿，涨6.14%，报 37.36港元，成交额12.04亿港元。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 特朗普提高钢铝关税 铜品种亦受到影响走高 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-06-05，沪铜主力合约开于 78050元/吨，收于 78170元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.04%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 78,960元/吨，收于 78,570 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.58%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯， 昨日日内现货品牌价差依旧存在，好铜如金川大板、贵溪等升水150-200元/吨，波兰大板等升水 120-150元/吨成交。祥光、鲁方、JCC等报价高至升水170-200元/吨，个别少量祥光成交升水40元/吨，随后市场难 觅。铁峰、豫光、金冠、金凤、金豚pc、大江等贴水30至升水20元/吨陆续成交。日内上下游出货与采购情绪均走 弱。 今日，低价货源日内成交走至贴水后重新回到平水价格，目前月差持续收敛，距离交割仍有7个交易日，预 计现货成交短期内会僵持于平水一线。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国初请失业金人数激增至8个月新高。美国贸易逆差因特朗普关税导致进口大跌而锐减55.5%， 至616亿美元。此外，欧洲央行将三大关键利率下调25个基点。拉加 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 该矿区第一季度产铜 770 万磅，占公司总产量的 7.2%；同时暂停 Flin Flon 和 Snow Lake 地区的勘探活动。公司认为两个地区的基础设施受损风险较低， 该公司称，将持续监控局势，一旦条件允许，确保安全恢复全面运营。 沪铜窄幅震荡，总持仓下降 4040 手至 55.2 万手，盘面价差结构继续缩窄，06-07 缩窄至 100,07-08 缩窄至 130，现货升水也跌至 90，06 合约交割临近以及需求不 佳令期现价差收窄，不过 ...