| | 变重名称 | 2025-09-16 | 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-08 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 成交量(手) | 808808 | 80940 | 79650 | -60.00 | | | | | 88548 | 68871 | 90850 | 19.677.00 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 165216 | 179256 | 178303 | -14.040.00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 33692 | 30643 | 18926 | 3, 049. 00 | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 | 沪铜县差 | 240 | 0 | 220 | 240. 00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜一半均价 | 81120 | 80940 | 79870 | 180. 00 | | | | SMM + 水铜开贴水 -- 切价 | 50 | 50 | 60 | 0. 00 | | | | SMM开水铜开贴水一平均价 | 125 | 110 | 190 ...

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown strength due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a decline in domestic refined copper social inventory, despite some fluctuations in processing fees and production targets from major companies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shanghai copper opened slightly higher and continued to strengthen throughout the day, closing up 1.25% [1] - The US dollar index softened, which contributed to the upward trend in copper prices [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory continues to decline, indicating a tight supply situation [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - Freeport Indonesia's copper concentrate exports have influenced the domestic copper concentrate processing fees, which had been recovering but saw a slight adjustment last week [1] - Chile's Codelco announced the approval for the resumption of operations at the El Teniente mine's Andes Norte and Diamante, but also lowered its copper production target for the year to 1.34-1.37 million tons [1] Group 3: Demand and Future Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures indicated that the copper supply-demand situation is relatively healthy, with ongoing tightness in copper mine supply and frequent disruptions at the mine level [1] - Overseas smelters have begun to cut production, and domestic smelters are expected to start reducing output from September [1] - The demand side remains resilient, supported by high growth in the power grid and new energy sectors, leading to an expectation of strong copper price performance moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The conclusion of the U.S. copper import tax saga raises questions about whether the copper market will revert to a "supply-demand hell" scenario [1] - U.S. copper inventories have reached a 21-year high, which is expected to impact global markets significantly [1] Group 1 - The end of the copper import tax in the U.S. may lead to increased volatility in the copper market [1] - The high levels of copper inventory in the U.S. could disrupt global supply chains and pricing dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - **Automobile Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].