研 究 院 货 金 融 美联储政策难料，铜价承压回落 张天骜 南京大学学士 爱尔兰都柏林大学数理金融学硕士 从业资格证：F3002734 究 院 美国经济数据即将公布，市场预计美联储12月降息概率下降至五成以下，避险情绪持续上升，风险资产全面走弱。 宏观利空影响，今日市场走势偏弱。日内美元上涨人民币下跌，有色金属普遍下跌。沪铜下跌，伦铜下跌，国内现货铜 下跌。 投资咨询证：TZ0012680 弘 业 期 期 货 金 融 研 数据上看，今日沪铜收盘报86450，现货报86620，沪铜低位震荡，现货较期货升水170点。今日现货基差升水上升 至105点，现货成交不佳。LME现货本周转为升水4美元，外盘现货需求有所好转。本周美铜库存继续上升创新高，伦铜库 存稳定，沪铜库存小幅上升，现货需求不佳。本周人民币汇率大幅上涨，洋山铜溢价下降至32美元的近期新低，国内现 货需求不佳。铜价伦沪比上升至8.01，国际铜较沪铜升水升水至537点，外盘比价高于内盘。 弘 业 技术上看，今日伦铜小幅下跌，在10825美元附近运行。沪铜探底回升小幅下跌，收于86450，技术形态偏弱。沪铜 成交上升持仓下降，市场分歧较大。宏观层面上看，美联 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Report 20251113: Tight Supply and Demand of Copper Mines May Support Copper Prices" [1] Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper industry is cautiously bullish [2] Core View - On the supply side, there are disturbances in the production of multiple copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index, indicating a tight supply - demand outlook for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and domestic processing fees for blister copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in November has decreased month - on - month. On the demand side, the capacity utilization rates of refined copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper tubes, and brass rods have increased compared to last week. In terms of inventory, China's electrolytic copper social inventory has decreased, while LME and COMEX copper inventories have increased. With the US federal government about to end its shutdown and production disturbances in overseas copper mines, the price of Shanghai copper may show a certain upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai copper cautiously, paying attention to support and resistance levels [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Copper Futures - **Price**: The closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract on November 12, 2025, was 86,840, up 210 from the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume was 76,287 lots on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,648 lots from the previous day [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest was 200,769 lots on November 12, 2025, a decrease of 1,602 lots from the previous day [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 44,088 tons on November 12, 2025, an increase of 1,124 tons from the previous day [2] - **Basis and Premium**: The Shanghai copper basis and various premiums showed different degrees of change. For example, the SMM 1 electrolytic copper - average price difference was - 45 on November 12, 2025, down 180 from the previous day [2] London Copper - **Price**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on November 12, 2025, was 10,897, up 57 from the previous day [2] - **Inventory**: The total registered and cancelled warehouse receipt inventory on November 11, 2025, was 136,250 tons [2] - **Contract Spread**: The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 0 on November 12, 2025, up 21.28 from the previous day [2] COMEX Copper - **Inventory**: The total COMEX copper inventory on November 12, 2025, was 378,303 tons, an increase of 5,999 tons from the previous relevant data [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support and resistance levels. For Shanghai copper, focus on the 82,000 - 84,000 support and 88,000 - 90,000 resistance; for London copper, focus on the 10,300 - 10,500 support and 11,000 - 11,200 resistance; for US copper, focus on the 4.5 - 4.8 support and 5.2 - 5.5 resistance [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper may be adjusted due to the uncertainty of the Fed's future interest - rate cut amplitude, the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, and the high copper price suppressing potential demand [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 80,880, down 60 from the previous day; the trading volume was 88,548 hands, an increase of 19,677; the open interest was 165,216 hands, a decrease of 14,040; the inventory was 33,692 tons, an increase of 3,049 [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was 240 on September 16, 2025, up 240 from the previous day; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 81,120, up 180 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10,117, down 72 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 59.26, up 2.67 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 16, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.6991, up 0.05; the total inventory was 312,868, an increase of 2,381 [2] 3.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - **Supply**: There are disturbances in the production of many copper mines at home and abroad, leading to a negative China copper concentrate import index and a decrease compared with last week. The supply - demand expectation of scrap copper is tight, and the processing fees of domestic blister copper or anode plates tend to decline. The maintenance capacity of copper smelters in September increases month - on - month. Some small and medium - sized smelters in the Democratic Republic of the Congo cut production in September 2025 due to water - power supply shortages, and the Zambian government plans to restrict the export of sulfuric acid to the Democratic Republic of the Congo [2] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season leads to a recovery in the demand of some copper processing industries, but the high copper price makes downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventories and only make rigid - demand purchases [2] - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic copper social inventory increases compared with last week; LME electrolytic copper inventory decreases compared with last week; COMEX copper inventory increases compared with last week [2] 3.3 Trading Strategy - For previous long positions, take profits at high prices or wait for the price to fall before laying out long positions. Pay attention to the support level around 77,000 - 79,000 and the resistance level around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper. For London copper, pay attention to the support level around 9,600 - 9,900 and the resistance level around 10,200 - 10,500. For US copper, pay attention to the support level around 4.3 - 4.5 and the resistance level around 4.8 - 5.0 [2]

Group 1 - In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 1.5% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 2.8 percentage points compared to June, marking two consecutive months of narrowing [1][6] - High-tech manufacturing profits shifted from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase in July, significantly boosting the overall profit growth rate of industrial enterprises [1][6] - From August 1 to 24, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the passenger car market reached 727,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative retail of 7.182 million units in 2023, up 27% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.7625%, with a net withdrawal of 236.1 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI for August in both the US and Eurozone rebounded above the critical point, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [2][9] - The real estate market continues to adjust, with second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities declining month-on-month, prompting the government to enhance macro policy effectiveness [2][9] Group 3 - The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase by 3.03% from the same period last month, while exports are projected to rise significantly [3][25] - The dual-fuel market is experiencing a mixed trend, with iron and coke prices showing fluctuations amid stable demand and increasing inventory levels [3][23] Group 4 - The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit will take place from August 31 to September 1, 2025, in Tianjin, where member states will sign the "Tianjin Declaration" and approve the "10-Year Development Strategy of the SCO" [5]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices have shown strength due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and a decline in domestic refined copper social inventory, despite some fluctuations in processing fees and production targets from major companies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Shanghai copper opened slightly higher and continued to strengthen throughout the day, closing up 1.25% [1] - The US dollar index softened, which contributed to the upward trend in copper prices [1] - Domestic refined copper social inventory continues to decline, indicating a tight supply situation [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - Freeport Indonesia's copper concentrate exports have influenced the domestic copper concentrate processing fees, which had been recovering but saw a slight adjustment last week [1] - Chile's Codelco announced the approval for the resumption of operations at the El Teniente mine's Andes Norte and Diamante, but also lowered its copper production target for the year to 1.34-1.37 million tons [1] Group 3: Demand and Future Outlook - Jin Yuan Futures indicated that the copper supply-demand situation is relatively healthy, with ongoing tightness in copper mine supply and frequent disruptions at the mine level [1] - Overseas smelters have begun to cut production, and domestic smelters are expected to start reducing output from September [1] - The demand side remains resilient, supported by high growth in the power grid and new energy sectors, leading to an expectation of strong copper price performance moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The conclusion of the U.S. copper import tax saga raises questions about whether the copper market will revert to a "supply-demand hell" scenario [1] - U.S. copper inventories have reached a 21-year high, which is expected to impact global markets significantly [1] Group 1 - The end of the copper import tax in the U.S. may lead to increased volatility in the copper market [1] - The high levels of copper inventory in the U.S. could disrupt global supply chains and pricing dynamics [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and moderately upward trend [3][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Prices**: Last week, the price of the main contract AL2508 of Shanghai copper futures fluctuated between around 77,700 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 78,580 yuan/ton. The LME copper futures price also showed a fluctuating trend, with the contract price ranging from 9,575 - 9,720 US dollars/ton [7][11]. 3.2 Spot Analysis - As of July 18, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 78,635 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 78,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 77,990 yuan/ton, 77,940 yuan/ton, 78,090 yuan/ton, and 78,050 yuan/ton respectively. The electrolytic copper premium was maintained at around an increase of 115 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 11, 2025, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 43.23 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was - 4.32 cents/pound. As of June 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 14.2% [21]. - **Automobile Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly copper product output was 2.2145 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. As of May 2025, the monthly automobile production in China was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% [26]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Global Visible Inventory**: As of July 18, 2025, the cathode copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 84,556 tons, an increase of 3,094 tons from the previous week. As of July 17, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 122,150 tons, an increase of 1,150 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.52%. As of July 17, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 241,814 tons, an increase of 2,379 tons from the previous trading day. - **Domestic Invisible Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 26,000 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 24,700 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone remained unchanged from the previous week [31]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - China's GDP in the first half of 2025 was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices, with the economy operating generally smoothly. The national consumer price (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the national industrial producer price decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. In June, it decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The contradiction between the Federal Reserve and the US government has intensified, and the policy shift during the last year of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term is worthy of attention. The copper smelting processing fee is stable but still at a historical low. Refined copper production continues to grow rapidly. The year - on - year growth rate of copper product output has accelerated, automobile production continues to increase year - on - year, and copper consumption remains strong. The Shanghai copper inventory has increased slightly, and the inventory level is at a relatively low level in recent years. The COMEX copper inventory continues to increase significantly [2][41].