Group 1 - Lithium mining stocks experienced an upward trend, with Ganfeng Lithium (01772) rising by 3.78% to HKD 64.6 and Tianqi Lithium (09696) increasing by 3.58% to HKD 56.35 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged over 6% earlier in the day, with the main contract reaching CNY 164,380 per ton, reflecting strong market dynamics [1] - The price increase in lithium carbonate is attributed to supply-side disruptions, particularly delays in the resumption of production at the Yichun lithium mica mine, affecting local suppliers [1] Group 2 - The demand side is also contributing to price increases, driven by export tax adjustment policies that have heightened enthusiasm among downstream companies for exporting [1] - The combined effects of supply and demand fundamentals are propelling prices upward in the lithium market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side is difficult to expand significantly in the short term due to the later - than - expected resumption time of Shixiawo lithium mine and the crackdown on illegal mining by the State Council's Work Safety Committee Office The demand side is optimistic about the downstream production schedule in January, with a possible logic of "no off - season in the off - season". The combined effect of supply and demand drives up prices, but there are risks in chasing high prices due to rapid price increases and frequent risk - control measures [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 104,900 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,400 yuan/ton SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 102,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 3,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures Contract Prices and Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate 2601 closed at 121,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% Lithium carbonate 2602 closed at 121,760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.45% Lithium carbonate 2603 closed at 121,940 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48% Lithium carbonate 2604 closed at 123,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.73% Lithium carbonate 2605 closed at 123,520 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.44% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 1,440 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 2,140 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton Lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,265 yuan/ton, with a change of 55 yuan/ton Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 11,725 yuan/ton Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 13,225 yuan/ton [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - Lithium iron phosphate (power - type) average price is 42,045 yuan/ton, with a change of 825 yuan/ton Ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) average price is 166,600 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,200 yuan/ton Ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) average price is 149,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,300 yuan/ton Ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power - type) average price is 149,000 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,100 yuan/ton [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,650 yuan/ton The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 18,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 4,600 yuan/ton The price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 220 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60 yuan/ton The price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 400 yuan/ton, with a change of - 440 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total weekly inventory is 109,773 tons, with a decrease of 652 tons The weekly inventory of smelters is 17,851 tons, with a decrease of 239 tons The weekly inventory of downstream enterprises is 39,892 tons, with a decrease of 1,593 tons The weekly inventory of others is 52,030 tons, with an increase of 1,180 tons The daily registered warehouse receipts are 17,101 tons, with no change [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 111,460 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 8,002 yuan/ton The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 109,946 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 9,014 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Ningde Times' Yichun Shixiawo lithium mine is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival Tianqi Lithium Industry will adjust the spot transaction settlement price of all products from January 1, 2026, no longer referring to SMM prices, but choosing one of two pricing methods: Shanghai Steel Union's high - quality battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) prices, or the main contract price of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the equilibrium price for lithium carbonate in 2026 is expected to be between 80,000 to 90,000 yuan per ton under neutral and optimistic demand scenarios [1] - The report anticipates a potential shortage in global lithium resources in 2027, which may lead to an increase in prices, possibly exceeding 100,000 yuan per ton in the second half of 2026 [1] - Due to the relatively low sensitivity of downstream industries to lithium carbonate prices, a sustained shortage in 2027 could further open up the price increase potential, with prices potentially rising to 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment strategy: Wait and see [5][90] - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 [5][90] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Supply contraction expectations are weakening, supply is at a high level, and downstream buyers after the holiday still mainly adopt a cautious and wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the driving force brought by the inflection point of downstream inventory replenishment [6][91] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The basis has a premium of 810 yuan/ton [10] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Ore - In September, China's lithium spodumene production was 6,800 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 1.9%; China's lithium mica production was 8,150 tons LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 9.2% [14] - In August, the import volume of lithium concentrate decreased to 470,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [18] - In July, the amount of lithium spodumene shipped from Port Hedland to China decreased to 88,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.1% [22] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Battery Recycling - In October, the expected recycling volume of waste lithium batteries was 27,934 tons, flat month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 30.1% [25] 1.2 Supply Side - Carbonate Lithium - Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 20,635 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% - In August, the import volume of lithium carbonate rose to 21,847 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.8% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5% [30] - In September, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 11,101 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.1% [32] 1.2 Supply Side - Lithium Hydroxide - In October, the operating rate of lithium hydroxide was 40%, and the output was 27,020 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.8% - In August, the export volume of lithium hydroxide was 5,673 tons, a month - on - month increase of 354.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 45.6% [39] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Iron Phosphate - Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 84,467 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% - In September, the operating rate of iron phosphate was 68%, and the output was 311,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18% and a year - on - year increase of 59% [42] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Materials - Last week, the production of ternary materials was 16,976 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% - In August, the import volume remained flat, and the export volume increased [48] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Ternary Precursors - In October, the operating rate of ternary precursors was 48%, and the output was 90,540 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% - In August, the export volume increased [53] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Lithium Manganate and Lithium Cobaltate - In October, the operating rate of lithium manganate was 33%, and the output was 12,124 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4% - In October, the operating rate of lithium cobaltate was 69%, and the output was 12,880 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year increase of 72% [54] 1.3 Downstream Demand - Electrolyte - In October, the production of electrolyte was 200,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year increase of 30% - In August, the export volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased [62] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Power Batteries - In August, the production of power batteries was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 37.8% - In August, the installed capacity of power batteries was 62.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.8% and a year - on - year increase of 32.4% [65] 1.4 Terminal Demand - New Energy Vehicles - In August, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.391 million, a month - on - month increase of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 27.4% - In August, the sales of new energy vehicles were 1.395 million, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 26.8% [68] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Energy Storage - In October, the production of energy - storage batteries was 53.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 40.1% - In August, the winning bid power scale of energy storage was 6.7 GW, a month - on - month increase of 14.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.4%; the winning bid capacity scale was 18.65 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.5% [73] 1.4 Terminal Demand - Consumer Electronics - In August, the production of Chinese smartphones was 10.04 million, a month - on - month increase of 6.4% and a year - on - year increase of 3.4% - In August, the production of Chinese micro - electronic computers was 2.769 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [76] 1.5 Cost - The price of lithium ore declined. The price of lithium spodumene concentrate decreased by 19 US dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica decreased by 45 yuan/ton [81] 1.6 Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2,024 tons. Structurally, the smelter's inventory increased by 1,255 tons, the downstream's inventory decreased by 1,128 tons, and other inventories decreased by 2,150 tons [86] - Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3,562 tons, and the inventory of ternary materials decreased by 47 tons [87] 1.7 Market Outlook - Strategy: Wait and see - Operating range: 66,000 - 76,000 - Logic: The supply of lithium mica mines in Jiangxi remains at a low level, the production of lithium spodumene increases slightly, and the import volume of lithium ore decreases. The production of lithium carbonate continues to grow, the import volume of lithium salts increases, the export volume of lithium salts from Chile declines seasonally, and the recycling end maintains growth. New energy vehicles grow steadily, the production of cathodes is stable, the production of battery cells rises, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increases, and the inventory of ternary materials decreases. The production and winning bid scale of energy - storage batteries increase. The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica decline. The overall inventory decreases, the smelter's inventory increases, and the downstream and other inventories decrease. [90][91]