长债利率

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8月通胀数据点评:PPI显筑底迹象、食品价格再成拖累
Bank of China Securities· 2025-09-11 02:01
固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 11 日 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《利率债与房地产的均衡分析》20240331 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易:预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济:失速还是滞胀?》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《欧债对美债的替代性》20250420 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《中美股债再平衡》20250512 《就业数据下修、降息可能提前——美国 6 月 PCE 和 7 月非农数据点评》20250804 《核心 CPI 延续回升趋势——7 月通胀数据点 评》20250811 《利率期限结构研究:理论与现状》20250825 《如何看长债利率的回升前景》20250825 《美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加》20250908 中银国际证券股份 ...
高频数据扫描:上游物价渐进改善
Bank of China Securities· 2025-09-01 00:09
Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].
深度 | 资金利率见底了么?——6月流动性展望【陈兴团队•财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-27 13:06
Core Viewpoint - Since May, with the reduction of policy interest rates, the liquidity has further eased, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, the funding rates have risen instead. The article discusses the expected government bond supply in June and the liquidity gap, questioning whether the funding environment will tighten or loosen further [1] Group 1: Market Interest Rates - Funding rates continued to decline in May, with the average R007 and DR007 down by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively. Various SHIBOR and interbank certificate of deposit rates also decreased compared to the previous month [4][5] - After the RRR cut on May 15, the funding environment began to tighten, and the central bank's operations shifted to small net injections towards the end of the month, with a total liquidity injection of around 1 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Government Bond Supply - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in national bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan. Local government bonds are projected to total nearly 900 billion yuan, leading to a combined government bond issuance of about 2.3 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of approximately 920 billion yuan [2][22] Group 3: Funding Pressure and Liquidity - The net financing pressure is alleviated due to the increase in government bond maturities in June, with expectations of a decrease in government deposits by about 1.1 trillion yuan. The seasonal increase in bank reserve requirements is expected to consume around 290 billion yuan of excess reserves [3][32] - The central bank's monetary policy remains a crucial variable, with limited room for further easing in the short term due to reduced liquidity pressure and the recent rise in long-term bond rates [3][32]