开局高起点，全年预计先下后上。 走过由债牛转向阴跌的2025年，新的一年债市走势分歧加大。元旦节后，银行间市场主要利率债收益率 仍以上行为主，1月6日，10年期品种收益率来到1.88%的阶段新高，30年期品种收益率则直接突破 2.3%，一度行至2.315%。 回顾近几年债市情况，多数年份以较上年更低的利率起点开局，2026年的起点明显更高，也被视为一种 交易安全垫。但展望全年，中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，债市的干扰因素依然较多，利率预计将先 下后上。 短期来看，综合考虑年初货币宽松预期不强，叠加供给压力等忧虑增加，机构普遍预测债市走势偏弱。 央行日前披露的数据显示，2025年12月公开市场买卖国债净投放流动性500亿元，继续低于市场预期。 阴跌的债市驶入2026 相较于单边债牛的2024年，2025年债市圈的日子不太好过。尤其是去年四季度以来，持续的阴跌与机构 抛售形成负反馈，长债利率大幅上行。 截至2025年12月31日，10年期国债期货主力合约全年累计跌了0.95%，30年期主力合约累计跌幅达到 5.62%。银行间现券方面，10年期国债活跃券"25附息国债16"票面利率1.83%，年末收益率收于1.85 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，站在新旧年更替的此刻，也是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，制约居民消费的核心矛盾是什么？如何看待促消费政策 从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变？"十五五"后，货币政策还有哪些发力空间？后续黄金走势将如何演绎？围绕上述问题，广发证券首席经济学家郭磊近日 接受了北京商报记者的专访。 郭磊认为，2026年作为"十五五"首年，提升消费率毫无疑问是主线索之一，但政策侧重点可能会有所变化，"以收入促消费"是政策在"十五五"期间的关键思 路。货币政策仍有协同发力空间。往2026年看，美元和黄金的多边波动特征均会有所增强。"内循环"与"高水平开放"应互为支撑。 2026年提升消费率是主线索之一 北京商报：结合当前消费市场环境来看，您认为制约居民消费的核心矛盾是什么？除了增加居民收入外，2026年还有哪些政策组合拳，能够有效缓解居民在 购房、教育、医疗等方面的预防性储蓄压力，进一步释放消费潜能？ 郭磊：核心矛盾是居民部门资产负债表仍随房地产市场处于调整阶段，而利润表受名义增长、就业环境影响。 除 ...

2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。时 值年末，全球经济仍在波动中寻找复苏节奏，而中国经济已在政策合力下展现出韧性底色。随着中央经 济工作会议敲定"稳中求进、提质增效"的2026年基调，"十五五"开局之年，中国经济如何平衡短期修复 与长期转型？该如何实现消费的长期可持续增长？强化"内循环"与推进"高水平对外开放"这两大战略， 又该如何协同发力？ 来源：北京商报 今年，人民银行多次强调，要实施好适度宽松的货币政策。中央经济工作会议提出，实施更加积极有为 的宏观政策，并明确要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。"进入'十五 五'时期，货币政策仍具备一定发力空间，但重点预计将逐步从总量宽松转向结构优化。"明明认为，明 年人民银行不仅会通过降准降息等总量政策工具来支持实体经济，还会更多通过结构性工具引导资金精 准流向实体经济重点领域。同时，通过完善考核机制、强化资金用途约束，有助于提高信贷投放效率， 降低资金在金融体系内"空转"的风险。 此外，今年，为配合财政发力，利率债供给有所增加。对于明年在"资产荒"背景下的长债利率走势，明 明表示 ...

针对多个热点话题，北京商报记者专访了中信证券首席经济学家明明，在他看来，2026年促消费政策或将更多聚焦服务消费、耐用品更新和新型消费场景， 同时在收入分配、公共服务和制度保障层面形成更稳定的支撑机制。更重要的是，通过稳定就业、完善医疗和养老保障体系、减轻教育支出负担，逐步压缩 预防性储蓄动机，从根本上释放消费潜能。 明明认为，步入"十五五"阶段，货币政策仍具备一定发力空间，但重点预计将逐步从总量宽松转向结构优化。在人民银行的各项稳汇率政策工具下，将缓和 汇率单边行情预期，人民币有望温和升值。此外，在央行宽松货币政策的支持下，明年长债利率有望迎来阶段性下行行情，全年视角下长债利率或将先下后 上。 促消费政策将更聚焦服务消费等场景 北京商报：2025年内，一系列消费补贴政策陆续出台，各项促消费政策也呈现出从"增量拉动"到"结构优化"的转变。您如何评价这种政策逻辑转换的必要性 与有效性？展望2026年，要真正实现消费的长期可持续增长，政策工具箱需要在哪些关键机制上实现突破？ 明明：2025年促消费政策从"增量拉动"转向"结构优化"，本质上是对消费约束来源变化的回应。在居民收入预期尚未完全修复、消费意愿约束依然存在 ...

从近期的经济数据来看，政府关门之后，美国的制造业PMI确实有所走弱，其中最重要的分项——新订单11月在50以下分水岭还在继续走差。 一年跌宕起伏的行情之后，2025年已临近结束，当下市场宏观交易角度最关心的莫过于2026年新任美联储主席的人选，加上一系列要发布的宏观数据，到 底会为2026年铺垫一个怎样的降息路径？ 同时，2026年AI Capex下公司长债的发债潮+美丽大法案+加上一个态度趋于鸽派的美联储，2026年长债利率到底如何演绎，能控得住吗？ 接下来，海豚君来一个个尝试理解一下： 当下经济，支持降息吗？ 此外，之前发布的9月PCE虽然已经有些过时，但核心PCE物价增长逐月回落，9月0.2%的月环比增长对应年化同比2.4%，相比目前3.75-4%的利率，也是 一个支持进一步降息的重要宏观数据。 而在居民收支的倾向性上，9月份美国居民当月基本量入为出，消费不再进一步挤压本应转为储蓄的部分，导致消费支出的名义增长从原本0.5%的环比增 长回落到了0.3%。 总收入其他细分项目虽然波动，但由于工资收入稳定，资产收入（利息+分红）较高，带动9月居民端整体收入增长基本稳定。 这些数据总体来看，是一个稳中走缓的一 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current inflation situation aligns with the scenario of a slow recovery in long - term bond yields, and the judgment of a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow recovery in long - term bond yields is maintained [2][14]. - Core CPI continues its upward trend, with the year - on - year increase in August reaching 0.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate expanding for the fourth consecutive month, indicating positive changes in the consumer price sector due to the continuous effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [2][5]. - Food prices continue to drag down CPI growth, suggesting that the growth of catering consumption may still be slow [2][5]. - The downward trend of upstream prices shows signs of stabilization, and the absolute level of the edible agricultural product price index has slightly rebounded. The price of edible agricultural products is expected to improve seasonally in September, but the narrowing of the year - on - year decline may be slow [2][11]. - In August, the signs of PPI reaching the bottom became more obvious, with the month - on - month change turning flat and the year - on - year decline narrowing due to the base effect. The narrowing of the decline in real estate and commodity export prices provides conditions for PPI to reach the bottom [2][11]. - Referring to the experience of the steel industry, it is expected that other key industries will mainly conduct precise regulation of production capacity and output, which is expected to promote the gradual improvement of PPI [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 CPI Analysis - In August 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, with food prices dropping by 4.3% and non - food prices rising by 0.5%. The CPI remained flat month - on - month [4]. - Core CPI continued to rise, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in August, and the growth rate expanded for the fourth consecutive month, showing positive changes in consumption prices due to domestic demand expansion policies [2][5]. - Food prices continued to drag down CPI growth. The year - on - year decline in food CPI in August was 4.3%, and the drag on CPI year - on - year was greater than the overall CPI decline, indicating slow growth in catering consumption [2][5]. - The edible agricultural product price index slightly rebounded in August, but the year - on - year decline was still large due to the base effect. In September, prices are expected to improve seasonally, but the narrowing of the year - on - year decline may be slow because of the late Mid - Autumn Festival [11]. 3.2 PPI Analysis - In August 2025, PPI showed obvious signs of reaching the bottom, with the month - on - month change turning flat and the year - on - year decline narrowing due to the base effect. The narrowing of the decline in real estate and commodity export prices provided downstream demand conditions for PPI to reach the bottom [11]. - Referring to the steel industry experience, it is expected that other key industries will mainly regulate production capacity and output precisely, which will promote the gradual improvement of PPI. The government has set a target for the steel industry's added - value to grow by an average of 4% annually from 2025 - 2026 [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Upstream prices are gradually improving. The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, but the year - on - year decline since August has narrowed. Steel industry capacity and output will be precisely regulated, which is expected to drive a gradual improvement in PPI and a slow rise in long - bond interest rates [4][13]. - The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar does not necessarily trigger a more relaxed liquidity supply. If Trump successfully replaces Cook, the proportion of "dovish" Fed governors may increase, leading to a decline in the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds. The strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar is conducive to stabilizing foreign investment, and its stability against the currency basket is conducive to stabilizing foreign trade [4][16]. - The US PCE inflation in July basically met market expectations and may have limited impact on the Fed's interest - rate cut prospects. However, the US trade deficit in July far exceeded expectations, mainly due to a sharp increase in imports, which may lead to intensified inflation and affect the interest - rate cut rhythm [4]. Summary by Directory High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - **Upstream prices**: The production - material price index declined slightly in the week of August 22, with a narrowing year - on - year decline since August. The steel industry's average annual added - value growth target for 2025 - 2026 is 4%. By August 29, the closing price of the coking - coal futures main contract was close to the December 2024 average, while that of the rebar main contract was significantly lower [4][13]. - **Exchange rate**: After Powell's hint at the global central - bank annual meeting and Trump's move to remove Cook, if Cook is successfully replaced, the long - term yield of US Treasury bonds may decline. The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, but the RMB exchange - rate index is still not high, which is an ideal state [4][16]. - **Inflation and trade**: The US PCE inflation in July basically met expectations. The trade deficit far exceeded expectations due to a sharp increase in imports, which may be related to the tariff "grace period" and mild inflation, and may intensify inflation and affect interest - rate cuts [4]. - **High - frequency data changes**: In the week of August 30, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.78% week - on - week and 27.43% year - on - year; the Shandong vegetable wholesale - price index increased by 2.54% week - on - week and decreased by 19.19% year - on - year. The prices of Brent and WTI crude - oil futures increased by 1.85% and 1.63% respectively week - on - week. The LME copper and aluminum spot prices increased by 1.13% and 1.52% respectively week - on - week [4][20]. High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators Trend Comparison The report provides multiple charts to show the trend comparison between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between LME copper spot - price year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change (plus PPI year - on - year change), and the relationship between crude - steel daily - output year - on - year change and industrial added - value year - on - year change [22][33]. Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US and Europe The report presents charts of US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rates, US first - week unemployment - claim numbers and unemployment rates, US same - store sales growth rates and PCE year - on - year changes, and Chicago Fed financial - condition indexes, as well as the implied prospects of the US Federal Fund futures for interest - rate hikes/cuts and the overnight index swap for the ECB's interest - rate hikes/cuts [88][90][93]. Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through various charts, such as the seasonal trends of crude - steel (decade - average) daily output, production - material price index, and 30 - major - city commercial - housing transaction area [101]. High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen The report provides charts of the year - on - year changes in subway passenger traffic in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [158][160][165].

Core Viewpoint - Since May, with the reduction of policy interest rates, the liquidity has further eased, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, the funding rates have risen instead. The article discusses the expected government bond supply in June and the liquidity gap, questioning whether the funding environment will tighten or loosen further [1] Group 1: Market Interest Rates - Funding rates continued to decline in May, with the average R007 and DR007 down by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively. Various SHIBOR and interbank certificate of deposit rates also decreased compared to the previous month [4][5] - After the RRR cut on May 15, the funding environment began to tighten, and the central bank's operations shifted to small net injections towards the end of the month, with a total liquidity injection of around 1 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Government Bond Supply - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in national bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan. Local government bonds are projected to total nearly 900 billion yuan, leading to a combined government bond issuance of about 2.3 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of approximately 920 billion yuan [2][22] Group 3: Funding Pressure and Liquidity - The net financing pressure is alleviated due to the increase in government bond maturities in June, with expectations of a decrease in government deposits by about 1.1 trillion yuan. The seasonal increase in bank reserve requirements is expected to consume around 290 billion yuan of excess reserves [3][32] - The central bank's monetary policy remains a crucial variable, with limited room for further easing in the short term due to reduced liquidity pressure and the recent rise in long-term bond rates [3][32]