Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the bond custody data for August 2025, showing that the total bond custody increased less month - on - month. The custody of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. The custody of major bond types by different institutions showed a differentiated pattern, with allocators increasing and traders and overseas institutions decreasing. The bond market leverage ratio increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [1][2][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased less month - on - month. As of the end of August 2025, the total bond custody of CCDC and SHCH was 174.54 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.51 trillion yuan month - on - month, 0.24 trillion yuan less than the increase at the end of July [1][11]. - The custody of interest - rate bonds and financial bonds increased, while that of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased. In August 2025, the interest - rate bond custody was 120.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 68.72% of the inter - bank bond market custody, with a net increase of 1.80 trillion yuan; the credit bond custody was 18.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.80%, with a net decrease of 1424 million yuan; the non - policy financial bond custody was 12.81 trillion yuan, accounting for 7.39%, with a net increase of 2.875 billion yuan; the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody was 20.38 trillion yuan, accounting for 11.99%, with a net decrease of 0.36 trillion yuan [1][11]. 3.2 Bond Holder Structure and Changes 3.2.1 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Institution - Allocators' custody of major bond types continued to increase month - on - month, while traders and overseas institutions' custody continued to decrease. Policy banks continued to increase their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds; commercial banks and credit unions increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds but decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit; insurance institutions, securities companies, and non - legal entity products increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds but decreased their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit and credit bonds; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds [2][27]. 3.2.2 Month - on - Month Changes in Custody by Bond Type - Treasury bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while non - legal entity products continued to reduce their holdings. - Local government bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Policy banks continued to increase their holdings, while commercial banks changed from increasing to reducing their holdings. - Policy financial bond custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to increase their holdings, while policy banks changed from increasing to reducing their holdings. - Inter - bank certificate of deposit custody continued to decrease month - on - month. Except for policy banks increasing their holdings, other major institutions reduced their holdings. - Enterprise bond custody continued to decrease month - on - month, and major institutions all reduced their holdings. - Medium - term note custody continued to increase month - on - month. Commercial banks continued to significantly increase their holdings, while securities companies continued to reduce their holdings. - Short - term financing and super - short - term financing custody changed to a decrease, with commercial banks being the main reducing entity. - Non - publicly - oriented debt instrument custody continued to decrease month - on - month, with non - legal entity products being the main reducing entity [3][29][30]. 3.2.3 Holder Structure of Major Bond Types - As of the end of August 2025, the holder structure of treasury bonds: commercial banks accounted for 69.23%, overseas institutions 5.53%, policy banks 10.77%, non - legal entity products 8.13%, securities companies 2.63%, insurance institutions 2.55%, and credit unions 1.16% [34]. - The holder structure of policy financial bonds: commercial banks accounted for 55.07%, non - legal entity products 31.86%, overseas institutions 2.87%, credit unions 3.30%, insurance institutions 2.04%, securities companies 1.13%, and policy banks 3.74% [36]. - The holder structure of local government bonds: commercial banks accounted for 74.22%, non - legal entity products 9.42%, policy banks 9.98%, insurance institutions 4.89%, securities companies 0.93%, credit unions 0.54%, and overseas institutions 0.02% [38]. - The holder structure of enterprise bonds: non - legal entity products accounted for 54.74%, commercial banks 32.20%, securities companies 9.12%, insurance institutions 3.02%, policy banks 0.56%, credit unions 0.28%, and overseas institutions 0.08% [40]. - The holder structure of medium - term notes: non - legal entity products accounted for 61.57%, commercial banks 23.62%, securities companies 4.88%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.40%, policy banks 3.14%, insurance institutions 2.35%, overseas institutions 0.22%, others 0.55%, and credit unions 0.27% [42]. - The holder structure of short - term financing and super - short - term financing: non - legal entity products accounted for 62.19%, commercial banks 20.57%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 7.53%, policy banks 5.01%, securities companies 4.20%, others 0.28%, credit unions 0.17%, overseas institutions 0.05%, and insurance institutions 0.00% [45]. - The holder structure of non - publicly - oriented debt instruments: non - legal entity products accounted for 59.93%, commercial banks 23.84%, policy banks 2.30%, credit unions 2.15%, others 4.06%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 2.00%, securities companies 1.11%, overseas institutions 4.49%, and insurance institutions 0.12% [47]. - The holder structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit: non - legal entity products accounted for 65.50%, commercial banks 28.44%, nominal holder accounts (domestic) 3.11%, securities companies 1.02%, policy banks 1.08%, others 0.31%, insurance institutions 0.07%, credit unions 0.03%, and overseas institutions 0.44% [49]. 3.3 Bond Market Leverage Ratio Observation As of the end of August 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase - to - be - bought pledged repurchase was 11.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2 trillion yuan month - on - month. The leverage ratio was 106.88%, up 0.07 percentage points month - on - month and down 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [50].

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Trends - The overall market shows a rebound in institutional attention, particularly in the mechanical, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors [5][6][7] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices have shown varied performance across different sectors, with banking and utilities leading in gains [1][2] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant advancements in the small molecule GLP-1RA space, with Orforglipron leading globally and domestic pipelines gaining value [28][30][31] - The mechanical industry is focusing on unmanned intelligent equipment, highlighted by the upcoming military parade showcasing new technologies [35][36][38] Company-Specific Updates - **Old Phoenix (老凤祥)**: The company reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a focus on brand rejuvenation and product upgrades [42][44] - **Federation Pharmaceutical (联邦制药)**: The company achieved a 4.61% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with significant growth in its formulation segment [46][48] - **Giant Star Agriculture (巨星农牧)**: The company experienced a 66.49% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by a substantial rise in pig sales [51][52] - **China Shenhua (中国神华)**: The company reported a decline in revenue but maintained strong integrated operations, with a focus on asset injection and sustainable dividends [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The small molecule GLP-1RA market is expected to provide new growth opportunities, with several domestic companies positioned to benefit from international expansion [33] - Companies involved in the mechanical sector, particularly those developing robotic technologies, are recommended for investment due to their innovative potential [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the total bond custody volume increased less month - on - month. The combined bond custody volume of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House (SHCH) was 171 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan from May 2025, and the incremental custody volume decreased by 0.9 trillion yuan compared to May [4]. - By bond type, interest - rate bonds and non - financial credit bonds increased more month - on - month, while negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) decreased month - on - month [4]. - By institution, commercial banks, broad - based funds, and securities companies increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs; insurance institutions mainly increased their holdings of local government bonds; overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of NCDs [4]. - In July, the bond - holding willingness of broad - based funds may decline marginally, but considering the improved bond - currency cost - effectiveness, allocation funds such as insurance and banks are expected to provide support on the demand side [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Institution - level Bond - holding Changes - Commercial banks in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 622.5 billion yuan (5174.57 billion yuan in May), reduced their holdings of non - financial credit bonds by 1.05 billion yuan (5.15 billion yuan in May), and reduced their holdings of NCDs by 147.1 billion yuan (162.1 billion yuan in May) [6]. - Broad - based funds in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 704.8 billion yuan (170 billion yuan in May), increased their holdings of non - financial credit bonds by 131.4 billion yuan (45.2 billion yuan in May), and reduced their holdings of NCDs by 450.1 billion yuan (475 billion yuan in May) [6]. - Other institutions in June 2025 increased their holdings of treasury bonds and reduced their holdings of local government bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - Insurance institutions in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, non - financial credit bonds, and NCDs [6]. - Securities companies in June 2025 increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and non - financial credit bonds and reduced their holdings of NCDs [6]. - Overseas institutions in June 2025 reduced their holdings of interest - rate bonds, non - financial credit bonds, and NCDs [6]. 3.2 Leverage and Exchange - level Holdings - In June 2025, the inter - bank leverage ratio rebounded to 107.9% [6]. - In June 2025, trust institutions and others reduced their holdings of bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange; securities company proprietary trading and others increased their holdings of convertible bonds; public funds, enterprise annuities, etc. reduced their holdings of convertible bonds [6]. 3.3 Reasons for Bond - holding Changes - In June, the central bank was more willing to maintain liquidity. Coupled with a large maturity volume of inter - bank NCDs, although the monthly issuance of government bonds remained high, the incremental bond custody volume was mainly affected by the maturity of NCDs and decreased overall. On one hand, large - scale banks continued to net - buy short - term treasury bonds, and banks, insurance, etc. mainly increased their holdings of local government bonds under the background of high government bond supply. On the other hand, the central bank conducted two outright reverse - repo operations and renewed 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) in June to maintain the money market. Coupled with the maturity volume of inter - bank NCDs exceeding 4 trillion yuan in June, except for insurance institutions, other institutions reduced their holdings of inter - bank NCDs. In addition, as the yield of NCDs declined and the foreign - exchange swap points narrowed, the relative return of overseas institutions investing in NCDs decreased rapidly, and overseas institutions continued to reduce their holdings of NCDs [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - The profit-taking sentiment after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut in May and the increase in government bond supply pressure were important factors affecting institutional behavior. Non-bank institutions' profit-taking sentiment heated up, and commercial banks had to take on more primary supply, increasing their liability pressure, which requires the central bank to maintain a loose liquidity environment [3][8]. - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased slightly, while that of non-bank institutions decreased and remained near a three-year low [3][37]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds' Net Financing Soared while Credit Bonds and CDs Slightly Declined, and the Bond Custody Increment Rose Significantly in May - The total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month in May, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank CDs, and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest rate bonds, the treasury bond custody increment rose by 64.2 billion yuan to 90.8 billion yuan; the local bond custody increment decreased by 18.46 billion yuan to 52.23 billion yuan; the policy financial bond custody increment rose by 26.9 billion yuan to 28.21 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the medium-term note (MTN) custody increment decreased by 3.63 billion yuan to 7.37 billion yuan, and the short-term financing bill (STFB) custody volume changed from an increase of 3.36 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.31 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and private placement notes (PPNs) continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [6]. 2. Non-bank Profit-taking Sentiment Heated up in May, and the Supply Pressure Increased, Leading to a Significant Increase in Banks' Bond Purchases and Higher Liability Pressure - **General Funds**: The custody increment decreased by 34.3 billion yuan to 81.26 billion yuan. They reduced their purchases of CDs and treasury bonds, sold STFBs and policy financial bonds, but increased their purchases of MTNs and local bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds, especially CDs, and switched to reducing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds [11]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 1.124 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.261 billion yuan. They sold treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and reduced their sales of CDs. Relative to the stock, they also reduced their allocation of bonds [16]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 99 million yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 120 million yuan. They sold local bonds, but reduced their sales of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House and increased their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of local bonds [19]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 9.54 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 9.63 billion yuan. They sold CDs, policy financial bonds, and commercial bank bonds and significantly reduced their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds [23]. - **Other Institutions**: The decline in bond custody volume narrowed from 74.29 billion yuan in the previous month to 19.27 billion yuan. They reduced their sales of local bonds and treasury bonds, but sold policy financial bonds and reduced their purchases of CDs. The narrowing of the decline was mainly due to the decrease in the net reverse repurchase volume of the central bank [25]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment increased by 90.74 billion yuan to 167.8 billion yuan, reaching a new high since July 2022. They increased their purchases of treasury bonds to a record high, switched to buying policy financial bonds, and reduced their sales of CDs. However, the custody increment of local bonds decreased significantly due to the narrowing of the net reverse repurchase volume. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly interest rate bonds [28]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment increased by 539 million yuan to 544 million yuan. They switched to buying treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, but slightly reduced their purchases of local bonds, CDs, and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly treasury bonds and local bonds [32][35]. 3. Non-bank Leverage Ratio Declined Again in May and Remained Near a Three-year Low - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.3%, but was still lower than before 2025. The leverage ratio of non-bank institutions decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 116.4% and remained near a three-year low [37]. - Among non-bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased by 6.7 percentage points to 207.4%, and that of insurance and non-legal person products decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 113.2%, both remaining near recent lows. In the general funds, the repurchase balance of money market funds increased significantly, while that of non-money products of fund companies increased limitedly, and their absolute levels were still low. The repurchase balances of insurance companies and other products slightly declined from high levels, and that of wealth management products continued to decline slightly near a historical low [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Since the second quarter, the bond market has been in a sideways shock. After the double - cut in May, the interest rate increased slightly, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising from 1.62% to 1.72%. During this period, there are two characteristics of institutional behavior: banks' bond allocation reached a record high, and institutions' overall willingness to hold bonds is strong [3]. - In May, the bond allocation of banks reached a record high, mainly due to the peak of supply and changes in the caliber. The net financing of Treasury bonds exceeded 90 billion yuan, and commercial banks' holdings of Treasury bonds increased by over 90 billion yuan, with the increase in all bond types reaching about 1.72 trillion yuan, a record high for commercial banks. Adjusting for the caliber change, the high increase in banks' bond holdings in May may indicate that their willingness to sell bonds to adjust floating profits in the second quarter is relatively controllable [3]. - Institutions' overall willingness to hold bonds is strong, different from previous months. In previous months when interest rates rose, non - bank institutions such as broad - based funds usually reduced or decreased their bond allocation. However, in May, the bond allocation scale of broad - based funds was still significant, with a monthly托管 increase of over 90 billion yuan. Broad - based funds are showing trading characteristics of allocating to certificates of deposit, reducing holdings of Tier 2 capital bonds, buying local government bonds, and conducting band - trading on Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds. Insurance institutions had a relatively low overall allocation scale in May, securities companies slightly reduced their positions, and foreign investors' holdings of certificates of deposit declined [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bank - to - Bank and Exchange Custody Volume Overview - In May 2025, the month - on - month increase in the bank - to - bank bond custody volume rose to 1.31%, while that of the exchange decreased to 0.59%. The bond custody volumes of the bank - to - bank market (China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Clearing House) and the exchange (Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange) were 166 trillion and 22 trillion yuan respectively, totaling 188 trillion yuan [12][18]. 3.2 By Bond Type 3.2.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - The overall custody scale of interest - rate bonds was 117 billion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 1.72 trillion yuan. In May, the balances of Treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - financial bonds continued to increase, and the total increase of Treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds was higher than that of the previous month. The custody scale of Treasury bonds increased by 91.12 billion yuan month - on - month, local government bonds increased by 52.57 billion yuan, and policy - financial bonds increased by 28.22 billion yuan [20][21]. 3.2.2 Credit Bonds - The total custody volume of credit bonds in May was 33 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 8.61 billion yuan. The scale of short - term financing bonds and enterprise bonds continued to decline, while the scale of medium - term notes and corporate bonds continued to rise. The custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 2.46 billion yuan, the total custody volume of association products increased by 2.64 billion yuan, and the custody scale of corporate bonds increased by 8.43 billion yuan [20][29]. 3.2.3 Certificates of Deposit - In May, the custody scale of certificates of deposit was 22 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 26.94 billion yuan. Policy - banks and broad - based funds' holdings continued to increase, while those of commercial banks, securities companies, and insurance institutions continued to decrease, and the increase in foreign institutions' custody scale turned from positive to negative [38]. 3.2.4 Financial Bonds - In May, the custody scale of financial bonds was 12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 22.49 billion yuan. Insurance institutions' holdings continued to decrease, while those of commercial banks, broad - based funds, securities companies, and foreign institutions continued to increase, and the increase in policy - banks' custody scale turned from negative to positive [44]. 3.3 By Institution - The custody volume of allocation - oriented investors increased significantly, while that of securities companies decreased. In May, policy - banks' holdings increased by 3.66 billion yuan, commercial banks' by 172.76 billion yuan, broad - based funds' by 92.23 billion yuan, securities companies' decreased by 15.81 billion yuan, insurance institutions' increased by 0.3 billion yuan, and foreign institutions' decreased by 9.5 billion yuan [48].

Core Viewpoint - Since May, with the reduction of policy interest rates, the liquidity has further eased, but after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, the funding rates have risen instead. The article discusses the expected government bond supply in June and the liquidity gap, questioning whether the funding environment will tighten or loosen further [1] Group 1: Market Interest Rates - Funding rates continued to decline in May, with the average R007 and DR007 down by 16.1 basis points and 14.5 basis points to 1.61% and 1.58% respectively. Various SHIBOR and interbank certificate of deposit rates also decreased compared to the previous month [4][5] - After the RRR cut on May 15, the funding environment began to tighten, and the central bank's operations shifted to small net injections towards the end of the month, with a total liquidity injection of around 1 trillion yuan [5][6] Group 2: Government Bond Supply - In June, the government is expected to issue approximately 1.38 trillion yuan in national bonds, with a net financing scale of around 490 billion yuan. Local government bonds are projected to total nearly 900 billion yuan, leading to a combined government bond issuance of about 2.3 trillion yuan and a net financing scale of approximately 920 billion yuan [2][22] Group 3: Funding Pressure and Liquidity - The net financing pressure is alleviated due to the increase in government bond maturities in June, with expectations of a decrease in government deposits by about 1.1 trillion yuan. The seasonal increase in bank reserve requirements is expected to consume around 290 billion yuan of excess reserves [3][32] - The central bank's monetary policy remains a crucial variable, with limited room for further easing in the short term due to reduced liquidity pressure and the recent rise in long-term bond rates [3][32]

Group 1 - The article discusses the April 2025 bond custody data, indicating a slight month-on-month decrease in total bond custody, with policy banks significantly reducing their bond holdings while other institutions increased their bond investments [4] - The IEA and EIA have raised their global oil demand forecasts for 2025, with IEA projecting an increase of 10000 barrels per day to 74000000 barrels per day, driven mainly by emerging economies, despite a decline in demand from OECD countries [5] - In April 2025, exports of electrical equipment showed significant growth, with inverter exports reaching $810 million, up 17% year-on-year and 28% month-on-month, while transformer exports increased by 34% year-on-year [6] Group 2 - The engineering machinery industry is experiencing steady growth, supported by favorable policies from the Two Sessions, indicating a sustained recovery in demand [7] - The snack retail leader, Mingming Hen Mang, is rapidly expanding its business through a franchise model, with a total of 14394 stores by the end of 2024, covering 28 provinces and achieving a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the total bond custody scale increased by 160.77 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 104.79 billion yuan compared to March, mainly due to the sharp contraction of net financing of various interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs). The custody stocks of credit bonds and commercial bank bonds turned upward month - on - month [3][6]. - In April, under the influence of the continued escalation of Sino - US trade frictions in the first half of the month, the bond market strengthened significantly. After the middle of the month, as the trade war tension eased, the bond market returned to a volatile state. Overall, the yield curve showed a bull - flattening trend. Institutional behavior still featured strong demand from trading desks and weak demand from allocation desks, but there were differences compared to March [3][8]. - In April, the repurchase balance continued to rise, and the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 107.1% month - on - month, but it was still significantly lower than the level before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased, while that of non - bank institutions increased but remained at a historically low level [3][43]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1同业存单与利率债净融资明显下滑 4 月债券托管增量大幅收缩 - In April, the net financing of NCDs and interest - rate bonds declined significantly, leading to a sharp contraction in the bond custody increment. The custody increments of various interest - rate bonds and NCDs decreased month - on - month. The custody stocks of credit bonds and commercial bank bonds turned upward month - on - month [6]. - Specifically, for interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds decreased to 26.6 billion yuan, local government bonds to 70.69 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds to 1.32 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the custody increment of medium - term notes (MTNs) increased to 11 billion yuan, and short - term commercial papers (CPs) increased from a decrease of 2.78 billion yuan in March to an increase of 3.36 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and private placement notes (PPNs) continued to decline. The custody increment of NCDs decreased significantly to 37.79 billion yuan, while that of commercial bank bonds turned from a decrease of 0.53 billion yuan to an increase of 18.89 billion yuan [6]. 3.2 4 月交易盘继续增持利率债 保险公司减持金融债券 - In April, influenced by the significant decline in NCD rates, the allocation demand for NCDs from broad - based funds, securities companies, and other institutions decreased, while the trading desks' willingness to increase holdings of interest - rate bonds continued to strengthen. The insurance institutions' willingness to increase holdings weakened, especially the significant increase in the reduction of holdings of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, possibly due to some institutions realizing floating profits in anticipation of subsequent accounting standard adjustments [3][8]. - **Broad - based funds**: The custody increment decreased significantly to 115.56 billion yuan, mainly due to the sharp decline in the increase of NCD holdings. The increase in holdings of local government bonds, policy - bank bonds decreased, while that of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, treasury bonds, and CPs increased. The reduction of holdings of commercial bank bonds decreased [14]. - **Securities companies**: The bond custody increment increased slightly to 11.24 billion yuan, remaining at a historically high level. They turned to reduce holdings of NCDs and MTNs, but the increase in holdings of treasury bonds reached a record high, and the increase in holdings of policy - bank bonds and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House also rose [20]. - **Insurance companies**: The bond custody increment decreased significantly to 0.99 billion yuan. They turned to reduce holdings of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, treasury bonds, NCDs, and policy - bank bonds, and the increase in holdings of local government bonds decreased [23]. - **Overseas institutions**: The bond custody increment decreased to 9.54 billion yuan. The increase in holdings of NCDs dropped significantly from a historical high, but they turned to increase holdings of policy - bank bonds and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House, and the increase in holdings of treasury bonds increased slightly [28]. - **Other institutions**: The bond custody volume decreased by 74.29 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a historical high. This was mainly affected by the central bank's shift from a net investment of 10 billion yuan in repurchase in March to a net withdrawal of 50 billion yuan in April. They turned to reduce holdings of local government bonds and increased the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds, but turned to increase holdings of NCDs and MTNs [31]. - **Commercial banks**: The bond custody increment increased to 77.06 billion yuan, affected by the return of some repurchase underlying assets to commercial banks after the net withdrawal of repurchase in April. If the impact of repurchase is excluded, the scale of bond - buying decreased. The reduction of holdings of policy - bank bonds and NCDs increased, and the increase in holdings of treasury bonds decreased [35]. - **Credit unions**: The bond custody volume turned from a decrease of 1.9 billion yuan in March to an increase of 0.05 billion yuan in April, mainly due to the shift to increase holdings of NCDs, but they turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [39]. 3.3 4 月非银杠杆率继续回升 但仍处于历史低位附近 - In April, the repurchase balance continued to rise, and the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 107.1% month - on - month, still significantly lower than the level before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.1%, reaching a historically second - lowest level. The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 0.9 percentage points to 116.8%, remaining near the low point since 2022 [43]. - Among non - bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased significantly by 13.4 percentage points to 214.1%, returning to a neutral level. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.6 percentage points to 113.4%, remaining near a recent low. In broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of money market funds and non - money products of fund companies increased significantly, but their absolute values were still low. The repurchase balances of insurance companies and other products increased, approaching the historical high in December last year, while that of wealth management products slightly declined, remaining near a historical low [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In March 2025, the leverage ratio of the inter - bank bond market increased month - on - month but was slightly lower than the historical average. The total bond custody scale of China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. (CCDC) and Shanghai Clearing House increased. Different institutions had different investment preferences for various bond types, with commercial banks significantly increasing their allocation of interest - rate bonds and broad - based funds increasing their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bank - Inter Leverage Ratio: Up Month - on - Month, Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years At the end of March, the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio was 107.03%, up 0.8 pct from 106.23% at the end of the previous month, and slightly lower than the historical average [1][12]. 3.2 Custody Data Overview In March 2025, the total bond custody scale of CCDC and Shanghai Clearing House was 166.22 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 2655.6 billion yuan. CCDC's custody scale increased by 1308.9 billion yuan, and Shanghai Clearing House's increased by 1346.7 billion yuan. Treasury bonds, local government bonds, policy - bank bonds, medium - term notes, and inter - bank certificates of deposit contributed to the increase, while enterprise bonds, short - term financing bonds, and private placement notes contributed to the decrease [2][15]. 3.3 By Bond Type: Net Financing of Treasury Bonds and Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit Increased, Credit Bonds Had Net Repayment - **Interest - rate Bonds**: In March 2025, the total custody scale of major interest - rate bonds was 109.14 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1584.1 billion yuan. Commercial banks and broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 814.8 billion yuan and 401.4 billion yuan respectively. For treasury bonds, commercial banks were the main buyers; for policy - bank bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for local government bonds, commercial banks and broad - based funds increased their holdings [3][17][48]. - **Credit Bonds**: The total custody scale of major credit bonds was 15.54 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 1.01 billion yuan. Broad - based funds and commercial banks increased their holdings. For enterprise bonds, all institutions reduced their holdings; for medium - term notes, commercial banks were the main buyers; for short - term financing bonds, broad - based funds were the main buyers; for ultra - short - term financing bonds, multiple institutions reduced their holdings [3][29][48]. - **Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit**: The custody scale was 21.18 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1115 billion yuan. Broad - based funds were the main buyers, increasing their holdings by 1306.6 billion yuan, while commercial banks were the main sellers, reducing their holdings by 264.8 billion yuan [3][45][48]. 3.4 By Institution: Commercial Banks Significantly Increased Allocation of Interest - rate Bonds, Broad - based Funds Increased Allocation of Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - **Commercial Banks**: The custody scale of major bonds was 80.04 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 561.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds by 814.8 billion yuan and 11.1 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit by 264.8 billion yuan. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Broad - based Funds**: The custody scale of major bonds was 35.53 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 1729.7 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 401.4 billion yuan, 21.8 billion yuan, and 1306.6 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of local government bonds, treasury bonds, and policy - bank bonds in interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes and short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][49]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.20 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 146.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and credit bonds by 3.2 billion yuan, 141.1 billion yuan, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly increased their allocation of medium - term notes, short - term financing bonds, and ultra - short - term financing bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Insurance Institutions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 4.03 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 93.5 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 93.1 billion yuan and 1.3 billion yuan respectively, and reduced their holdings of credit bonds by 1 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of local government bonds and treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and slightly reduced their allocation of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Securities Companies**: The custody scale of major bonds was 2.76 trillion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 118.1 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds, credit bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 88.7 billion yuan, 3.3 billion yuan, and 26.1 billion yuan respectively. They mainly increased their allocation of treasury bonds in interest - rate bonds and increased their allocation of medium - term notes in credit bonds [4][53]. - **Credit Unions**: The custody scale of major bonds was 1.89 trillion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 14.8 billion yuan. They increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds by 21.6 billion yuan and reduced their holdings of credit bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit by 0.63 billion yuan and 35.8 billion yuan respectively. They increased their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - bank bonds, and local government bonds in interest - rate bonds [5][54].