华福证券 风险提示 杠杆率估算存在偏差、资金面波动超预期。 团队成员 分析师： 李一爽(S0210525120003) lys30931@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 郭昌辽(S0210525070001) gcl30767@hfzq.com.cn 2026 年 02 月 28 日 固 定 收 益 广义基金减持创近 3 年新高 商业银行主动增配 驱动市场企稳——2026 年 1 月债券托管数据点评 投资要点： 固 1 月债券总托管规模环比上升 7576 亿元，较 12 月多增 4550 亿元。其 中，利率债托管增量 10785 亿元，较上月上升约 3800 亿元，地方债、国债、 政金债托管增量均有所提升；短融券转为净融资导致信用债托管增量上升； 同业存单托管规模环比继续下降 6562 亿元，降幅较上月扩大 338 亿元。 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 1 月国内债券利率先上后下，上旬市场基于对政府债供给以及银行负 债的担忧出现显著调整，相关因素对债市的冲击弱于预期，中下旬以来市 场有所修复。从机构行为来看，商业银行是市场企稳最重要的驱动力量。 除了与银行有关的商业银行、信用社和其他机构外，仅有券商增持债券， ...

2026 年 02 月 26 日 开源晨会 0226 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.155 | | 银行 | -0.456 | | 汽车 | 0.056 | | 家用电器 | 0.130 | | 石油石化 | 0.190 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 钢铁 | 4.694 | | 有色金属 | 3.478 | | 建筑材料 | 2.749 | | 房地产 | 2.533 | | 基础化工 | 2.162 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 开 源 证 券 证 券 研 究 报 wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 总量视角 【固定收益】上清所托管量环比减少，债市整体杠杆率持平——2026 年 1 月债市 托管数据点评-20260225 事件：1 月末，上清所债 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日 总量研究 商业银行大幅增持，非法人类产品持续减持 ——2026 年 1 月份债券托管量数据点评 要点 1、 债券托管总量及结构 债券托管总量环比多增。截至 2026 年 1 月末，中债登和上清所的债券托管量合 计为 179.31 万亿元，环比净增 0.76 万亿元，较 2025 年 12 月末环比多增 0.46 万亿元。 分品种看托管总量，利率债、信用债环比净增，金融债、同业存单环比净减。本 月（2026 年 1 月，下同）利率债托管量 125.73 万亿元，环比净增加 1.10 万亿 元；信用债托管量 19.40 万亿元，环比净增加 0.25 万亿元；金融债券（非政策 性）托管量 12.93 万亿元，环比净减少 20 亿元；同业存单托管量 19.03 万亿元， 环比净减少 0.66 万亿元。 2、债券持有者结构及变动 从本月债市各机构对主要券种的持仓总量来看，配置盘均表现为增配；交易盘中 证券公司增配、非法人类产品持续减配；境外机构持续减配。具体来看： 政策性银行增持利率债、同业存单，减持信用债； 商业银行增持利率债、信用债，减持同业存单； 信用社全面增持利率债、同业存单和信 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the bond market remained weak. The ultra - long - end interest rates continued to rise while the short - end rates recovered, steepening the yield curve. The trading desks, represented by securities firms and broad - based funds, continued to reduce their bond allocations, but the reduction intensity of securities firms weakened and they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds. The allocation - oriented institutions such as banks and insurance companies increased their bond allocations, but the scale was limited and difficult to reverse the overall interest - rate trend. The top signal of interest rates might need to wait until the allocation power strengthened to the point where the selling pressure from trading institutions could no longer push interest rates significantly higher [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 12 - month Interest - rate Bonds Drag Bond Custody Increment to Drop Significantly, Credit and Certificates of Deposit Also Decline - In December, the total bond custody scale increased by 30.26 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 117.73 billion yuan compared with November. The custody increment of interest - rate bonds was 69.59 billion yuan, about 78 billion yuan lower than the previous month. The custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all decreased significantly. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers also decreased significantly, leading to a lower custody increment of credit bonds. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline by 62.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 23.66 billion yuan compared with the previous month [3][10]. 3.2 Trading Desks' Reduction of Allocations Continues, Allocation - Oriented Desks Lack Incentive to Increase Allocations 3.2.1 Broad - based Funds - In December, the bond custody volume of broad - based funds decreased by 9.92 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 22.16 billion yuan in the previous month. The reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was 34.96 billion yuan, an increase of 34.01 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The reduction in treasury bonds, enterprise bonds, short - term commercial papers, PPNs, and credit - asset - backed securities increased, while the increase in medium - term notes and local bonds decreased. The reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased, and they started to increase their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of broad - based funds on bonds increased, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was particularly significant, but the reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased and the allocation to policy - financial bonds increased [17][19]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms - In December, the bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 0.23 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 13.98 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to increase their allocation to treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and commercial - bank bonds, increased their allocation to local bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, PPNs, and enterprise bonds increased. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of securities firms on bonds decreased, mainly as they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds but started to reduce their allocation to credit bonds [27]. 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In December, the bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 1.15 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They increased their allocation to treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, decreased their reduction in commercial - bank bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes, decreased their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream, and increased their reduction in enterprise bonds. Relative to the stock, insurance companies started to increase their allocation to bonds, mainly increasing their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds [33]. 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In December, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 15.09 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 3.41 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, increased their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, but started to increase their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of overseas institutions on bonds increased slightly, mainly increasing their reduction in policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their reduction in treasury bonds and increasing their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes [34]. 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In December, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 18.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 39.22 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They decreased their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds, started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, but increased their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit. The change in the bond custody structure of other institutions might indicate that the underlying assets of repurchase agreements were still mainly local bonds, but some were replaced from policy - financial bonds to treasury bonds [39]. 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In December, the bond custody scale of commercial banks increased by 25.73 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 52.58 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The increase in local bonds, treasury bonds, financial bonds on the Clearstream, and medium - term notes decreased, the reduction in short - term commercial papers, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and commercial - bank bonds increased, and the increase in policy - financial bonds increased. This also reflected the impact of the change in the structure of repurchase - agreement underlying assets to some extent. Relative to the stock, commercial banks also increased their allocation to bonds to some extent, increasing their allocation to policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds, increasing their allocation to local bonds, decreasing their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream and medium - term notes, and increasing their reduction in short - term commercial papers and commercial - bank bonds [45]. 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In December, the bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 9.82 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.98 billion yuan in the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, increased their reduction in policy - financial bonds and commercial - bank bonds, and decreased their allocation to local bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of credit unions on bonds increased, mainly reducing their allocation to certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds [46]. 3.3 The Bond - market Leverage Ratio Seasonally Rebounded in December, and Securities Firms Reduced Leverage but It Remained at a High Level - In December, affected by short - term disturbances in the liabilities of some institutions at the end of the year and the increase in the demand for borrowing funds, the bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8%, which was in line with the seasonal pattern. By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 103.6%; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 118.4%, which was also in line with the seasonal characteristics; the leverage ratio of securities firms decreased significantly by 14.1 percentage points month - on - month to 217.3%, but it was still at a high level; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal - person products increased by 1.7 percentage points month - on - month to 115.4%, which was at a relatively low level in the past three years. In the broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of various institutions rebounded. Among them, the repurchase balances of money - market funds, other products, and insurance companies reached record highs, and the repurchase balance of wealth - management products reached a new high since 2025, but the repurchase balance of non - money - market funds remained at a relatively low level since 2023 [4][52].

Group 1: Bond Custody Total and Structure - The total bond custody increased month-on-month, reaching 178.25 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with a net increase of 1.48 trillion yuan compared to the previous month [4] - By category, the custody of interest rate bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds increased, while interbank certificates of deposit saw a decrease [4] - The custody of interest rate bonds was 123.94 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan; credit bonds reached 19.13 trillion yuan, increasing by 0.27 trillion yuan; and financial bonds totaled 12.80 trillion yuan, up by 0.10 trillion yuan [4] Group 2: Bond Holder Structure and Changes - Among major institutions in the bond market, only securities companies and foreign institutions saw a decrease in bond custody, while other institutions reported increases [5] - Policy banks, commercial banks, and non-legal entity products increased their holdings in interest rate bonds and credit bonds, while reducing interbank certificates of deposit [5] - The custody of government bonds continued to increase, with policy banks and commercial banks consistently adding to their holdings, while securities companies significantly reduced theirs [5] Group 3: Bond Market Leverage Observation - The balance of repurchase agreements decreased month-on-month, leading to a decline in the bond market leverage ratio [6] - As of the end of November 2025, the estimated balance of repurchase agreements was 11.05 trillion yuan, down by 360.125 billion yuan, with a leverage ratio of 106.61%, a decrease of 0.29 percentage points month-on-month [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November 2025, the overall bond market weakened, especially the ultra - long end, and the decline in the willingness of trading desks to increase interest - rate bonds may be the core factor for the market adjustment. The adjustment of ultra - long bonds in November may be more affected by the sentiment of trading desks, with relatively limited relation to issues such as bank book interest - rate risks. [3][12] - The bond leverage ratio decreased slightly in November, with the securities company's leverage ratio rising but the product account leverage ratio falling. [4][53] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Interest - rate Bond Custody Increased Significantly but Certificates of Deposit Had Net Repayment, and the Bond Custody Scale Rose Slightly - In November, the total bond custody scale increased by 147.98 billion yuan month - on - month, an increase of 16.75 billion yuan compared with October. Interest - rate bond custody increments increased by nearly one trillion yuan compared with the previous month, and the custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all increased significantly. Due to the increase in the issuance scale of medium - term notes, the credit - bond custody increment also increased, and the custody scale of commercial bank bonds turned from a decline to an increase. However, the custody volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from an increase of 721.4 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 385.7 billion yuan, significantly dragging down the overall bond custody scale. [3][10] 3.2 The Decline in the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Interest - rate Bonds May Be the Core Factor for the Market Adjustment in November 3.2.1 Generalized Funds - In November, the bond custody scale of generalized funds increased by 22.16 billion yuan month - on - month, a decrease of 82.29 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They mainly changed from increasing 77.12 billion yuan of inter - bank certificates of deposit last month to reducing 950 million yuan. In addition, they increased their holdings of financial bonds, local bonds, and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but also increased their reduction of commercial bank bonds, policy - financial bonds, and enterprise bonds, and changed to reducing treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit. [18] 3.2.2 Securities Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of securities companies changed from an increase of 13.48 billion yuan last month to a decrease of 14.21 billion yuan, mainly due to the reduction of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream, a decrease in the increase of local bonds, and an increase in the reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds. However, they increased their holdings of medium - term notes and credit - asset - backed securities and increased their holdings of short - term commercial paper. [26] 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In November, the bond custody volume of insurance companies changed from a decrease of 450 million yuan last month to an increase of 2.85 billion yuan. They slightly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit and increased their holdings of financial bonds and medium - term notes on the Clearstream, but the increase in local bonds decreased, and the reduction of commercial bank bonds increased. [30] 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In November, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 11.67 billion yuan month - on - month, and the decline was 6.26 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They mainly changed to reducing treasury bonds, increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit, but slightly increased their holdings of policy - financial bonds. [32] 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In November, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 57.46 billion yuan month - on - month, and the increase was 21.9 billion yuan larger than the previous month. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds, changed to increasing policy - financial bonds, but the increase in local bonds decreased and changed to reducing inter - bank certificates of deposit. The structural changes in the custody data may be due to the fact that the proportion of treasury bonds in the repurchase of reverse repurchase targets increased. [37] 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In November, the bond custody scale of commercial banks changed from a decrease of 25.14 billion yuan last month to an increase of 78.3 billion yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, increased their holdings of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and medium - term notes, but increased their reduction of inter - bank certificates of deposit and changed to reducing short - term commercial paper and credit - asset - backed securities. If the impact of outright repurchase is considered, the banks' increase in holdings of treasury bonds and local bonds further increased. [44] 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In November, the bond custody scale of credit unions changed from a decrease of 2.06 billion yuan last month to an increase of 980 million yuan. They mainly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, increased their holdings of local bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream, decreased their reduction of policy - financial bonds, but decreased their increase of inter - bank certificates of deposit. [46] 3.3 The Bond Leverage Ratio Decreased Slightly in November, with the Securities Company's Leverage Ratio Rising but the Product Account Leverage Ratio Falling - Affected by the increase in the bond custody scale and the decrease in the scale of institutional funds borrowed, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 107.2% in November, still at a relatively low level. [4][53] - Among them, the commercial bank's leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 103.3%, and the non - bank institution's leverage ratio decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 117.0%. In non - bank institutions, the securities company's leverage ratio increased by 11.5 percentage points month - on - month to 231.4%, reaching a new high since 2020, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 113.7%, still at a relatively low level in the past three years. [4][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. The newly - added custody scale was 1.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year. The main contributor to the year - on - year increase was inter - bank certificates of deposit, while interest - rate bonds had a negative contribution. Credit bonds also increased significantly year - on - year [3][4]. - In terms of institutions, the bond - allocation power of allocation - type institutions declined, while non - legal person products significantly increased their bond allocation. Banks, insurance and other institutions decreased their bond allocation, especially banks, while non - legal person products and securities firms increased their bond allocation [3]. - Looking ahead, it is expected that the supply of government bonds from November to December will remain at a high level, but the year - on - year growth is expected to decline. The demand in the bond market at the end of the year still has support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Bond Custody in October - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance was 14.0%, 0.1 percentage points lower than that in September. The newly - added custody scale was 1.5 trillion yuan, basically the same as the same period last year [3][4]. 3.2 By Bond Type - Inter - bank certificates of deposit were the main contributor to the year - on - year increase in October, followed by credit bonds. Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - based financial bonds) significantly decreased year - on - year, followed by financial bonds [3][9]. - The supply scale of government bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased in October. The supply of government bonds continued to decline, with treasury bonds decreasing by about 150 billion yuan and local government bonds decreasing by about 410 billion yuan year - on - year. Policy - based financial bonds were at a low level, and financial bond financing also continued at a low level [19]. - Credit bonds increased by nearly 190 billion yuan year - on - year in October, further expanding significantly. This was due to the repair of the corporate balance sheet, the decline in corporate financing costs, and the new policy on science - innovation bonds [20]. - Inter - bank certificates of deposit financing expanded significantly in October. The central bank restarted bond - buying operations, and banks may have increased the supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit to meet credit demand [23]. 3.3 By Institution - **Banks**: Affected by the supply, after considering the net investment of 400 billion yuan in the central bank's outright reverse repurchase, banks' bond investment decreased by 680.4 billion yuan year - on - year in October. They mainly reduced their allocation of treasury bonds, policy - based financial bonds, financial bonds and credit bonds, and slightly increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [30][33]. - **Insurance**: Insurance slightly reduced its bond allocation year - on - year in October but continued to increase its allocation of local government bonds. The proportion of its increased government bond scale to the newly - added government bond custody was about 17.5%, significantly higher than the 9.6% in the past 12 months [36]. - **Non - legal person products**: They increased their bond holding by 1.03 trillion yuan in October, with a year - on - year increase of 978.2 billion yuan. They mainly increased their allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit, followed by credit bonds [37]. - **Foreign capital**: Foreign capital continued to reduce its bond holding in October, mainly increasing its holding of treasury bonds and reducing its holding of inter - bank certificates of deposit. The cost - performance of carry trade income was still insufficient [48]. - **Securities firms**: Securities firms increased their bond holding by 156.1 billion yuan in October, with a year - on - year increase of 131 billion yuan, mainly increasing their holding of treasury bonds and local government bonds [48]. 3.4 Outlook - **Supply**: It is expected that the supply of government bonds from November to December will remain at a high level, with a monthly supply scale exceeding 1 trillion yuan, but the year - on - year growth is expected to decline due to the high base in the same period last year [50]. - **Demand**: - **Banks**: It is expected that from November to December, banks will follow the supply, with a relatively large bond - allocation scale but a year - on - year decrease. The allocation scale is expected to be between 1 and 1.5 trillion yuan [54]. - **Insurance**: Insurance institutions may have a certain willingness to scramble for bond allocation at the end of the year. If the government bond supply from November to December is 2.3 trillion yuan, the insurance allocation scale may exceed 40 billion yuan [58]. - **Asset management accounts**: It is expected that from November to December, asset management accounts will maintain a certain intensity of bond allocation, but it may be lower than that in October when they undertook a large number of inter - bank certificates of deposit [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month, ending the two - month trend of less growth. The rebound of inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale was the main driving force, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds declined significantly [3][6]. - The bond market performance eased in October. Long - term interest rates showed a recovery trend, and dropped significantly after the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading on the 27th. Trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased significantly, while the allocation willingness of allocation - type institutions declined [3][10]. - Due to the increase in institutions' borrowed funds, the bond market leverage ratio increased slightly by 0.1 pct to 107.4% in October, remaining at a relatively low level. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased, but the absolute level was still not high [3][37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 10 - month Bond Custody Increment Rebounds, and Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Net Financing is the Main Support - The total bond custody scale increased by 131.24 billion yuan month - on - month in October, with the inter - bank certificate of deposit custody scale turning from decline to increase for the first time since June this year. The net financing scale of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while the custody increment of interest - rate bonds decreased significantly [3][6]. - For interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - bank bonds all decreased compared with the previous month. For credit bonds, the custody increment of short - term commercial paper and medium - term notes increased, while that of enterprise bonds and PPN continued to decline [6]. The Central Bank Restarts Bond Buying, Market Sentiment Improves, and the Willingness of Trading Desks to Increase Bond Holdings is Significantly Restored - In October, the bond market performance eased. After the central bank announced the restart of treasury bond trading, long - term interest rates dropped significantly. The trading desks' enthusiasm for bond buying increased, while the allocation willingness of commercial banks and insurance companies declined [10]. - **General Funds**: The bond custody scale increased by 104.45 billion yuan month - on - month, turning to increase holdings of inter - bank certificates of deposit, medium - term notes, and short - term commercial paper, and reducing the scale of selling financial bonds [15]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume increased by 134.8 billion yuan month - on - month, reaching a new high since July 2024, mainly due to a large increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [17][19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume decreased by 450 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit [22]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 5.42 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increased scale of selling domestic bonds, but turning to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduce holdings of policy - bank bonds [24][25]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume increased by 35.56 billion yuan month - on - month, with an increase in holdings of treasury bonds and certificates of deposit, and a decrease in holdings of policy - bank bonds [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody scale decreased by 25.14 billion yuan month - on - month, mainly due to a significant decrease in the scale of increasing holdings of treasury bonds and an increase in the scale of reducing holdings of local bonds [30]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale decreased by 206 million yuan month - on - month, mainly due to the reduction of holdings of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [34]. In October, the Non - bank Leverage Ratio Increased Beyond Seasonality, but the Absolute Level was Still Not High - In October, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.1 pct to 107.4% month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level. The non - bank institutions' leverage ratio increased by 0.3 pct to 117.2%, but the absolute level was still not high in the past three - year dimension [37]. - Among them, the securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 3.3 pct to 219.9%, while the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 0.3 pct to 114.0% [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the total bond custody scale increased by 921.2 billion yuan month - on - month, with a slower growth compared to August, hitting the lowest level since May last year. The adjustment in the bond market was affected by the change in public - offering regulatory policies, but market sentiment towards government bonds has recovered. The bond market leverage ratio decreased month - on - month, not showing the seasonal increase seen in previous quarter - end months [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 9 - month Bond Custody Increment Shrinks Significantly, Net Financing of Policy Financial Bonds Drops Notably - The total bond custody scale increased by 921.2 billion yuan month - on - month in September, 584.8 billion yuan less than in August. Among them, the custody increment of policy financial bonds decreased significantly, while that of treasury bonds and local bonds decreased slightly. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit and commercial bank bonds continued to decline with an enlarged decline, and the custody increment of credit bonds increased slightly [2][5]. 3.2 Public - offering Regulatory New Rules Bring Structural Shocks, Demand for Government Bonds has Recovered - Affected by the public - offering regulatory policy changes in September, the bond market adjusted, especially for bonds with large public - offering holdings. The adjustment was mainly due to panic rather than liquidity pressure. Market sentiment recovered at the end of the month. Structurally, different institutions had different behaviors. Generalized funds reduced their holdings of credit and financial bonds, while securities firms increased their holdings. Both reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and increased their holdings of local bonds. Commercial banks' increase in holdings decreased, while insurance institutions significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds, and the reduction in holdings by overseas institutions decreased [2][9]. - **Generalized Funds**: The decline in the bond custody scale of generalized funds widened by 5.99 billion yuan month - on - month to 25.15 billion yuan. They reduced their holdings of more credit and financial bonds, and their relative reduction in bond allocation decreased, turning to increase the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit [14]. - **Securities Firms**: The bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 353 million yuan month - on - month. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and increased their holdings of local bonds and medium - term notes. Their relative reduction in bond allocation increased slightly [18]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody increment of insurance companies increased by 43 million yuan month - on - month to 439 million yuan. They significantly increased their holdings of treasury bonds and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [20]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The decline in the bond custody volume of overseas institutions narrowed by 551 million yuan month - on - month to 446 million yuan. They turned to increase their holdings of policy financial bonds, and their relative reduction in bond allocation decreased [24]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody increment of other institutions increased by 203 million yuan month - on - month to 3556 million yuan. They increased their holdings of local bonds and medium - term notes, and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [27]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 6056 million yuan month - on - month to 5945 million yuan. They mainly reduced their holdings of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds, and their relative increase in bond allocation decreased [32]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment of credit unions increased by 315 million yuan month - on - month to 419 million yuan. They increased their holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and increased their allocation of bonds relatively [38]. 3.3 The Bond Market Leverage Ratio Declined Counter - seasonally in September, and the Leverage Ratio of Generalized Funds Continued to Decline - Affected by the decline in the repurchase balance, the bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.2 pct month - on - month to 107.3% in September, remaining at a relatively low level. The leverage ratio of commercial banks decreased by 0.2 pct to 103.6%, while that of non - bank institutions remained unchanged at 116.9%. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased by 8.2 pct to 223.3%, and that of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.1 pct to 113.7% [40].

Group 1: Report Summary - The total bond custody scale in August increased by 150.6 billion yuan month-on-month, with a slower growth compared to July. The custody increments of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds rose, while the net financing scale of local bonds and credit bonds declined, and commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment. The custody scale of interbank certificates of deposit continued to decline significantly [4][7]. - In early August, the bond market oscillated and recovered, but after mid - August, sentiment weakened due to the continuous new highs of A - shares. Long - term interest rates were under pressure, while short - term rates were relatively resilient. From the perspective of institutional behavior, broad - based funds may have been affected by liability - side disturbances and reduced their bond holdings for the first time since February. Dealers also increased their holdings of interest - rate bonds. However, the承接 power of allocation - oriented investors was insufficient, which might have prevented interest rates from stabilizing in August. Notably, foreign institutions significantly narrowed their reduction of domestic bond holdings, possibly indicating an increase in their overall allocation of Chinese assets [4][9]. - Affected by the decline in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Among different institutions, commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, while non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9% [4][39]. Group 2: August Bond Custody Increment Analysis - Interest - rate bonds: The issuance scale of treasury bonds increased while the maturity scale decreased in August, with the custody increment rising by 38.42 billion yuan to 82.61 billion yuan. For policy financial bonds, the decline in the issuance scale was smaller than that in the maturity scale, and the custody increment increased by 22.23 billion yuan to 46.16 billion yuan. The issuance scale of local bonds decreased significantly while the maturity scale increased, and the custody increment decreased by 31.51 billion yuan to 51.72 billion yuan [7]. - Credit bonds: The issuance scale of medium - term notes and enterprise bonds decreased while the maturity scale increased. The custody increment of medium - term notes decreased by 11.05 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan, and the custody scale of enterprise bonds decreased by 3.53 billion yuan. The issuance scale of short - term commercial paper decreased, and the custody volume changed from an increase of 1.06 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.61 billion yuan. The custody scale of PPN continued to decline by 1.53 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Other bonds: The issuance and maturity scales of interbank certificates of deposit both increased slightly, and the custody scale continued to decline by 35.56 billion yuan, with a narrower decline compared to the previous month. Commercial bank bonds turned into net repayment, with the custody volume changing from an increase of 36.9 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.64 billion yuan. The custody increment of non - bank bonds increased by 2.04 billion yuan to 5.12 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of credit - asset - backed securities narrowed by 0.58 billion yuan to 0.54 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Institutional Behavior Analysis 3.1 Broad - based Funds - The bond custody scale of broad - based funds decreased by 19.17 billion yuan in August, mainly due to significant reductions in credit bonds and certificates of deposit, while slightly increasing holdings of interest - rate bonds. The reduction in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, commercial bank bonds, and enterprise bonds increased, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes and financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased. They turned to reduce holdings of short - term commercial paper and increase holdings of policy financial bonds [12]. 3.2 Securities Companies - The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 190 million yuan in August, mainly due to a significant decrease in the reduction of treasury bonds, a slight decrease in the reduction of medium - term notes, an increase in the increase of policy financial bonds, and a turn to slightly increase holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream. The reduction of bond holdings weakened significantly [18]. 3.3 Insurance Companies - The bond custody increment of insurance companies decreased by 5.76 billion yuan to 3.96 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of local bonds and treasury bonds, a turn to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds and medium - term notes, and an increase in the reduction of commercial bank bonds. They turned to reduce bond holdings [20]. 3.4 Foreign Institutions - The decline in the bond custody volume of foreign institutions significantly narrowed by 20.41 billion yuan to 9.97 billion yuan in August, with a significant decrease in the reduction of interbank certificates of deposit, treasury bonds, and policy financial bonds. They generally continued to reduce bond holdings, but the reduction intensity weakened [25]. 3.5 Other Institutions - The bond custody increment of other institutions, including the central bank, increased by 9.58 billion yuan to 33.52 billion yuan in August, mainly due to the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase. They significantly increased holdings of local bonds, turned to reduce holdings of policy financial bonds, and slightly increased the reduction of treasury bonds. The increase in holdings of interbank certificates of deposit reached a new high since December 2022, while the increase in holdings of medium - term notes declined from a historical high [28]. 3.6 Commercial Banks - The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased by 52.2 billion yuan to 120.01 billion yuan in August. They turned to reduce holdings of local bonds, possibly affected by the increase in the net investment of outright reverse repurchase and the concentration on local bonds. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds increased significantly, while the increase in holdings of financial bonds on the Clearstream decreased significantly [31]. 3.7 Credit Unions - The bond custody increment of credit unions decreased by 5.92 billion yuan to 1.04 billion yuan in August, mainly due to a decrease in the increase of policy financial bonds and treasury bonds and a turn to reduce holdings of interbank certificates of deposit. They turned to reduce bond holdings [37]. Group 4: Bond Market Leverage Ratio Analysis - The bond market leverage ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 107.5% in August, remaining at a relatively low level in recent years. Commercial banks' leverage ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.8%, still significantly lower than the level before April 2024. Non - bank institutions' leverage ratio decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 116.9%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022. Among non - bank institutions, securities companies' leverage ratio decreased by 12.8 percentage points to 215.1%, still at a relatively high level in the past three years. The leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 113.8%, remaining at a relatively low level since 2022 [39].