导语 人民币汇率有望维持温和升值态势，但考虑到潜在的不确定性，也不宜押注单边行情。 央行明确2026年七大重点工作。 1月5日至6日，2026年中国人民银行工作会议召开，部署全年七大重点工作，围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开放等核心领 域，明确行动路径。 其中，在货币政策方面，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。 业内专家认为，适度宽松的货币政策将兼顾总量调节与结构优化，人民币汇率有望维持温和升值态势，但考虑到潜在的不确定性，也不宜押注单边行情。 适度宽松的货币政策 2026年适度宽松的货币政策将有两个主要方向。首先是总量政策，其次是结构性政策。 央行会议明确，2026年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，将促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为核心考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工 具，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资条件相对宽松，引导金融总量合理增长、信贷投放均衡，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平 预期目标相匹配。 王青认为，2026年央行将优化用好各类结构性货币政策工具，总体上是"加量降价"，即 ...

12月30日午间，在岸人民币对美元升破7.0关口，创下2023年5月以来新高。 自2025年4月以来，人民币对美元汇率持续走强，从7.35左右一路升到7.01左右。12月25日，离岸人民币 对美元率先升破7.0关口，为2024年9月以来首次。 对于汇率后市走势，专家表示，市场和经营主体需要理性看待。未来影响汇率的市场因素和政策因素很 多，人民币走势仍存在较大的不确定性。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，推动近期人民币汇率走强主要有两方面因素。一是美联储降息预 期增强，驱动美元指数回落。11月下旬至今，美元指数下跌约2.0%。二是今年以来，面对复杂的外部 环境，中国经济展现出较强韧性，近期国际货币基金组织、世界银行以及高盛等多家外资机构为中国经 济投了"信任票"，纷纷上调中国经济增速预测值，外资配置人民币资产兴趣增强。 同时，年末正处于结汇高峰期，出口企业增加的结汇需求也会带动人民币季节性走强。 中央经济工作会议指出，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。中国人民银行货币政策委员会 2025年第四季度例会强调，"防范汇率超调风险"。"人民币汇率双向波动、弹性增强是常态，下一步， 要继续增强外汇市场韧性，稳 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support the real economy and maintain the health of the banking system, shifting the focus from merely promoting economic stability to consolidating the fundamentals of economic development and social stability [1][3] - The PBOC plans to maintain ample liquidity and align the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations, while also promoting a reasonable rebound in prices [3] - The report outlines a comprehensive set of financial policies aimed at enhancing consumption, supporting technology and green finance, and stabilizing foreign trade, while also ensuring the stability of the financial market and preventing systemic financial risks [1][3] Group 2 - The PBOC will introduce a package of financial policies to boost consumption and guide financial institutions in enhancing consumer finance services [1] - The report includes six special sections discussing key topics such as the positioning of MLF after policy rate adjustments, measures to lower corporate financing costs, and improvements to the bond market system [1] - The PBOC aims to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies, reduce banks' funding costs, and ensure that monetary policy transmission mechanisms are effective [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is showing a positive recovery trend, with a stable financial system and resilient financial markets, while the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to correcting market behaviors and preventing excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1][8]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves and Market Impact - China's foreign exchange reserves are diversified to reduce concentration risk, with a focus on safety, liquidity, and value preservation [4][6]. - As of March 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,407 billion, remaining above the $3.2 trillion mark for 16 consecutive months [5]. - The recent volatility in U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index has led to a reallocation of global assets, impacting investor sentiment towards dollar assets [3][6]. Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Management - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates experienced fluctuations, with the onshore rate reaching 7.35 and the offshore rate 7.4 before stabilizing around 7.3 [7]. - The PBOC has emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, with a middle rate of 7.2043 against the dollar as of April 28, 2025 [7]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The PBOC plans to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts and maintaining liquidity to support the real economy [9][11]. - The PBOC is exploring a rich toolbox of policy measures to enhance financial support for key sectors and stabilize market expectations [11][12]. - The focus will be on enhancing domestic demand and supporting private enterprises, particularly in technology and green sectors [12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to adjust monetary policy, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions, based on domestic and international economic conditions [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The average reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions is currently 6.6%, indicating room for further reductions [2]. - The PBOC aims to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on supporting key strategic areas and weak links in the economy [4]. Group 2: Financial Market Regulation - The PBOC will enhance the regulation of market behaviors that may hinder the transmission of monetary policy, ensuring effective implementation of interest rate policies [3]. - There is a commitment to strengthen the coordination between financial policies and industrial policies, ensuring targeted support while maintaining control [3]. Group 3: Support for Innovation and Capital Markets - The PBOC plans to expand the scale of re-loans for technological innovation and transformation, emphasizing support for strategic sectors [4]. - Collaboration with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is being explored to establish a regular framework to support capital market development [4].