先搞懂核心矛盾：特朗普为啥非哈塞特不可？这位跟随特朗普十年的经济心腹，标签就是"绝对忠诚"。要知道特朗普对鲍威尔早已不满，当年鲍威尔坚持加 息、缩表，直接被特朗普痛批"美国经济最大风险"。如今力推哈塞特，说白了就是想安插一个"降息代言人"，毕竟哈塞特经济学博士出身，有美联储五年研 究经验，还当过经济顾问委员会主席，资历完全够格。更妙的是他的"局外人"身份，刚好契合美财长贝森特呼吁的"美联储全面审查"，简直是特朗普眼里的 完美人选。 来源：余丰慧 特朗普的"忠诚棋子"要掌美联储？降息盛宴泡汤！3大铁律击碎市场幻想！ 打开行情软件，不少投资者还在押注"哈塞特上任=大水漫灌"？醒醒！德银12月3日重磅研报直接泼冷水：这位特朗普力挺的"忠诚派"就算掌舵美联储，激进 降息也纯属痴人说梦。今天用硬核数据拆解真相，你的持仓可能正被市场的乐观幻想带偏！ 说到底，美联储的政策制定从来不是"个人意志决定"，而是经济数据、制度规则和内部共识的综合结果。哈塞特的"忠诚"或许能让他获得提名，但改变不了 美联储的运作本质。那些期待"降息盛宴"的投资者，该醒醒了——2026年的货币政策，只会是渐进、克制的调整，而非市场幻想的大水漫灌。 但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and reduce arbitrage opportunities in the financial system [1][2]. Interest Rate Transmission Mechanism - The report discusses the transmission mechanism of policy interest rates through the financial system to various market rates, highlighting the need for a market-oriented interest rate system to function effectively [1]. - It is noted that different financial instruments have varying characteristics, leading to a diverse range of interest rates and the formation of price relationships [1]. Key Interest Rate Relationships - The report identifies several critical interest rate relationships that require attention: - The relationship between central bank policy rates and market rates, where market rates should align closely with policy rates to ensure effective transmission [3]. - The relationship between asset and liability rates of commercial banks, where discrepancies can compress net interest margins and affect banks' ability to support the real economy [3]. - The relationship between different asset yields, emphasizing that the financing costs for the same entity should not diverge excessively between bond yields and loan rates [3]. - The relationship between short-term and long-term rates, which should maintain a reasonable term spread [3]. - The relationship between different risk rates, where higher credit ratings should correspond to lower financing costs, ensuring adherence to risk pricing principles [3]. Regulatory Measures and Future Directions - Recent regulatory efforts have aimed to stabilize banks' net interest margins and manage interest rates effectively, with noticeable improvements [4]. - The central bank plans to continue monitoring the identified interest rate relationships and implement measures to ensure compliance with self-regulatory mechanisms, including the establishment of reporting mechanisms for deposit rates and loan pricing [4]. - Ongoing assessments of financial institutions' adherence to interest rate policies will be conducted to maintain reasonable net interest margins and expand the counter-cyclical adjustment space for monetary policy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the monetary policy execution report for Q3 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of its counter-cyclical monetary policy measures in supporting economic recovery and stabilizing financial markets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has utilized various monetary policy tools to create a conducive financial environment for economic recovery, including maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit [2][3] - The report indicates a significant increase in social financing and broad money supply (M2), with year-on-year growth rates of 8.7% and 8.4% respectively, and a total RMB loan balance of 270.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.6% increase [3] - The PBOC aims to lower social financing costs and optimize credit structure through market-oriented interest rate adjustments [2][3] Group 2: Structural Policy Measures - The report emphasizes the continuous optimization of financing structure, with notable year-on-year growth in various loan categories: technology loans (11.8%), green loans (22.9%), inclusive loans (11.2%), elderly care loans (58.2%), and digital economy loans (12.9%) [4] - The PBOC has implemented structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as consumption, technology innovation, and rural revitalization, with a total balance of structural monetary policy tools reaching 3.9 trillion yuan by the end of September [4] Group 3: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to maintain an appropriately loose monetary policy while enhancing the execution and transmission of monetary policy [5][6] - The report highlights the importance of consumer finance support and the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, indicating a shift in focus compared to previous quarters [6] - Future efforts will include improving the monetary policy framework, ensuring liquidity remains ample, and aligning social financing growth with economic growth and price level expectations [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2023, maintaining ample liquidity to support economic recovery and stabilize financial markets [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The central bank has utilized various monetary policy tools, including open market operations and medium-term lending facilities, to ensure reasonable growth in money and credit [2] - A market-oriented interest rate adjustment framework has been established to lower overall financing costs, leading to a decrease in both deposit and loan rates [2] - The central bank is focusing on optimizing the credit structure by utilizing specific loan quotas for consumption, elderly care, and technological innovation [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of September, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 270.4 trillion yuan [3] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 40 and 25 basis points year-on-year, indicating a low financing cost environment [3] - The RMB exchange rate has remained stable, with a 1.2% appreciation against the US dollar compared to the end of the previous year [3] Group 3: Risk Management - The central bank is actively working to mitigate financial risks in key areas and is enhancing its financial risk monitoring and assessment systems [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has reported that the moderately accommodative monetary policy has been effective this year, with counter-cyclical adjustments showing gradual results [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Growth - The total financial volume has seen reasonable growth, with the social financing scale stock and broad money supply (M2) increasing by 8.7% and 8.4% year-on-year as of the end of September [1] - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.4 trillion yuan [1] - Social financing costs remain low, with new corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreasing by approximately 40 basis points and 25 basis points year-on-year in September [1] Group 2: Credit Structure and Support for Key Areas - The credit structure is continuously optimizing, effectively supporting key areas, major strategies, and the transformation and upgrading of the economic structure [1] - As of the end of September, technology loans, green loans, inclusive loans, elderly care industry loans, and digital economy industry loans grew by 11.8%, 22.9%, 11.2%, 58.2%, and 12.9% year-on-year, all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [1] Group 3: Future Directions and Policy Goals - The PBOC plans to deepen financial reforms and enhance high-level opening-up, aiming to build a strong financial nation and improve the central bank system [1] - The focus will be on constructing a scientific and robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management system, ensuring smooth monetary policy transmission [1] - The PBOC aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, stabilize growth while preventing risks, and support the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increased by 26.56 trillion yuan, indicating strong financial support for the real economy [1] - Both the social financing stock growth rate and the broad money (M2) growth rate remained high at 8.8% as of the end of August, reflecting a relatively loose financial environment [1] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in August was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, down about 25 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The analysis of financial support for the real economy should not rely solely on credit channels, as recent fluctuations in financial data are influenced by seasonal factors and hidden debt replacement [2] - The M2 growth rate remained stable, supported by accelerated fiscal spending and a decrease in fiscal deposits year-on-year [2] - The narrow money (M1) growth rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 6%, serving as an important indicator of corporate investment willingness and consumer spending tendencies [2] Group 3 - The narrowing of the "scissors difference" between M1 and M2 in August reached its lowest level since June 2021, driven by the increase in M1 growth [3] - The liquidity absorption effect of fiscal policies weakened in August, and the pace of wealth management product expansion slowed compared to July, reducing the diversion of deposits [3] - Ongoing debt reduction policies have also contributed to the improvement of corporate funding conditions, supporting M1 growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has effectively implemented counter-cyclical monetary policy measures in 2023, resulting in stable financial growth and a favorable environment for high-quality economic development [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has maintained reasonable growth in monetary credit, with the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increasing by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, as of June [1]. - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates have decreased by approximately 45 basis points and 60 basis points year-on-year, respectively, indicating an optimization in credit structure [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has remained stable, with the mid-point exchange rate against the USD at the end of June being roughly the same as at the end of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Future Policy Directions - The PBOC aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, economic growth and risk prevention, and internal and external equilibria, enhancing the effectiveness and foresight of macroeconomic regulation [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2]. - The PBOC plans to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and enhance the transmission mechanism of market interest rates, aiming to lower bank funding costs and further reduce overall financing costs [3]. Group 3: Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC will continue to support key sectors such as technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade through structural monetary policy tools [3].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has effectively implemented counter-cyclical monetary policy in 2023, resulting in stable financial growth and a favorable environment for high-quality economic development [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC reported a year-on-year increase of 8.9% in social financing scale and 8.3% in broad money supply (M2) as of June, with the RMB loan balance reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [1] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 45 and 60 basis points respectively in the first half of the year, indicating an optimization in credit structure [1] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable against the USD, with the mid-point rate at the end of June being roughly the same as at the end of the previous year [1] Group 2: Future Monetary Policy Directions - The PBOC aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, economic growth and risk prevention, as well as internal and external equilibrium, while enhancing the effectiveness and foresight of macroeconomic regulation [2] - The report emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - The PBOC plans to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and enhance the transmission mechanism of market interest rates to lower bank funding costs and further reduce overall financing costs [3] Group 3: Support for Key Sectors - The PBOC will utilize structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [3] - The focus will be on improving the efficiency of fund utilization and preventing fund idling while maintaining a balance between supporting the real economy and ensuring the health of the banking system [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has released the "2025 Q2 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report," highlighting the effectiveness of various monetary policy measures in the first half of the year, including interest rate cuts and structural adjustments, aimed at supporting economic recovery and efficient allocation of financial resources to the real economy [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The report outlines five key areas of monetary policy implementation: maintaining reasonable growth in money and credit, reducing overall financing costs, optimizing credit structure, stabilizing the exchange rate, and enhancing risk prevention and resolution [2][3] - In May, the PBOC lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, and utilized various tools to guide financial institutions in improving service quality to the real economy [2] - The PBOC has cumulatively reduced the reserve requirement ratio 12 times and policy interest rates 9 times since 2020, leading to a decline of 115 basis points for 1-year and 130 basis points for loans over 5 years [3] Group 2: Credit Structure and Financing - The report indicates a significant shift in the credit structure, with a notable increase in loans directed towards technology, green initiatives, and inclusive finance, while the proportion of loans for real estate and infrastructure has decreased [4] - Direct financing has also seen a steady increase, with the share of corporate bonds, government bonds, and non-financial corporate equity financing rising by 4.4 percentage points since the end of 2018 [5] Group 3: Future Focus Areas - Future credit allocation will focus on enhancing financial service quality, with particular emphasis on inclusive finance and support for technological innovation, which are deemed essential for supporting the real economy [6] - The report highlights the need for financial support to boost consumption, particularly in the service sector, which currently accounts for less than 50% of household consumption expenditure, indicating significant growth potential [7] - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately accommodative monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample and aligning social financing growth with economic growth and price targets [7]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies under the leadership of the central government, resulting in a stable economic performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, reflecting strong vitality and resilience in the economy [2]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [2][3]. - Key measures include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the market [3]. Financing and Interest Rates - The PBOC aims to maintain reasonable growth in money and credit, with efforts to lower the overall financing costs in society. In May, the policy interest rate was reduced by 0.1 percentage points, and the rates for structural monetary policy tools and personal housing provident fund loans were lowered by 0.25 percentage points [3]. - As of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the balance of RMB loans reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [4]. Credit Structure and Risk Management - The PBOC is focusing on optimizing the credit structure by establishing a 500 billion yuan re-loan for consumption and elderly care, and increasing the re-loan quota for technological innovation and transformation by 300 billion yuan [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of risk prevention and resolution, with ongoing improvements to the financial risk monitoring and assessment systems [3][5]. External Environment and Future Outlook - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers. However, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, and the PBOC is committed to maintaining strategic focus and advancing key strategic tasks related to modernization [5]. - The PBOC plans to enhance the monetary policy framework, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and ensuring the stability and continuity of policies to support employment, businesses, and market expectations [5][6].