以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：画不多说 近些年美股有两次大的崩盘，绝大部分策略都陷入绝境： 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 但总有一个男人，他的净值曲线走得异常平稳。 他就是全球最大对冲基金——桥水基金创始人、以其代表作"全天候策略"闻名于世的达利欧。 前不久，达利欧在一次分享中，首次专门为中国投资者提出了多个特别好的投资建议。 选了三个我觉得很有价值的，翻译成白话，给大家分享下： 01 如何在低利率下有跑赢通胀的不错回报？ 为什么这么说？因为存在通胀。 过去30年，我国年平均通货膨胀率约2.5%，也就是同样的钱能购买到的东西平均每年会减少2.5%。 同时通胀并非均匀分布，有的商品会涨价更多。 像食品、房屋租金等上涨得更明显，如果你的支出集中在吃和租房上，那就会付出更高的成本。 而不论我们是把现金放在家里，还是存在银行里，都是无法跑赢通胀的。 所以按达利欧的观点，在如此低利率的环境下，把钱存着是不够的，我们必须构建一个风险可控 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market is not a cash machine but a reflection of corporate value, with 90% of retail investors failing to profit during bull markets due to incorrect mindsets [3] - In 2025, the Nasdaq index surpassed 20,000 points, and the Shanghai Composite Index returned to 4,000 points, indicating a significant market recovery [3] Group 2: Stock Selection Principles - Emphasis on buying familiar and strong companies, avoiding speculative "concept stocks" [4] - The semiconductor market is valued at $800 billion, with only leading firms like TSMC likely to benefit long-term [4] - Recommended metrics for stock selection include ROE above 15%, stable gross margins, and ample cash flow [4] Group 3: Risk Management and Positioning - Avoid full investment; maintain 20%-30% cash reserves to manage risk effectively [6] - Historical data shows leveraged investors faced an average loss rate of 50% during market volatility [6] - Implement strict stop-loss rules, selling stocks that decline by 10% [6] Group 4: Technical and Fundamental Analysis - Basic analysis should take precedence over technical indicators, with a focus on company financials and industry trends [7] - Long-term holding strategies are favored over frequent trading, as 90% of returns come from 10% of the time invested [7] Group 5: Common Pitfalls and Continuous Learning - Common pitfalls include following unreliable trading strategies and neglecting macroeconomic factors [9] - Continuous learning and humility are essential, with a focus on reputable sources for market information [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that investing in stocks and funds is fundamentally different from gambling, as it is a positive-sum game where all participants can potentially profit [3][4]. - The long-term profit growth rate of A-share listed companies is around 10% annually, allowing all participants to enjoy this return if they buy undervalued stocks [4]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of buying stocks when they are undervalued to maximize potential profits for all investors [4].

Group 1 - The article highlights that most investors are familiar with stock index funds but have limited knowledge about bond index funds and their investment strategies [2] - It emphasizes that investing in stock funds is not a zero-sum game, meaning that it is possible for all investors to make money in the long term if investments are managed properly [5] - The concept of a zero-sum game is explained through gambling, contrasting it with stock fund investments, which are described as a positive-sum game where all participants can benefit [6] Group 2 - The article mentions that the long-term profit growth rate of A-share listed companies is around 10% annually, indicating a potential for sustained returns in stock investments [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights that most investors are familiar with stock index funds but have limited knowledge about bond index funds and their investment strategies [2] - A free course is offered to educate investors on how to invest in bond index funds, including course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The concept of zero-sum games is explained, where one party's gain is another party's loss, exemplified by a simple game of rock-paper-scissors [6] - In contrast, investing in stock funds is described as a positive-sum game, where all participants can achieve collective gains due to the profitability of the underlying companies [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented is that the United States is unwilling to accept China's rise as a global leader, reflecting deep-seated fears about losing its dominant position [1][3][14] - The competition between the US and China has intensified, characterized by trade friction, tariffs, and high-tech restrictions, indicating a struggle over global influence rather than a simple desire to maintain leadership [3][7] - China's advancements in traditional industries like steel and automotive, as well as emerging sectors, demonstrate its growing global market share, contradicting US efforts to contain its rise [3][12] Group 2 - China emphasizes peaceful development and fair cooperation, contrasting with the US's unilateral approach and imposition of its standards on other nations [5][11] - The article critiques the US's "zero-sum game" mentality, suggesting that such an approach is outdated and counterproductive in a complex global landscape [7][9] - The narrative suggests that China's rise should be viewed as an opportunity for international order building rather than a threat, promoting a vision of mutual respect and win-win cooperation [11][14]

但其中也有一部分跑输了指数，如果不谨慎挑选的话，也有可能买到的基金，实际上跑不赢指 数。 那应该如何挑选优秀的指数增强基金呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数增强基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数增强 」领取哦 ～ 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 从历史数据看，指数增强基金的平均收益，多数年份是可以跑赢对应指数的。 散户平均收益，低于市场。主要是追涨杀 跌、频繁交易带来的。 ◆◆◆ 其实投资股票基金,收益并不一定来自某 个投资者亏损。如果投资妥当，是可以做 到所有投资者都长期赚钱的。 因为股票并不是一个「零和游戏」。 上市公司整体是盈利的。 A股上市公司长 期盈利增长速度，在年化10%上下。 所有的股东,持有所有股票,就可以享受 这个年化。 所以投资股票资产,并不需要谁亏钱,是 可以做到所有股东都赚钱的。 不过，在实际投资过程中,感受肯定不是 这样。 想要收益好,就得克服上面两点。 ..., ... .. ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 买主动基金，就是买基金经理。 不过目前市场上已经有几千位基金经理了。如果没有系统的方法论，只凭个人感觉进行挑选，会比较困难。 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程。螺丝钉通过两门图文课程，介绍了主动基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」为好友，给小助手发送「 主动基金 」领取哦～ ◆◆◆ 都赚钱，那谁在亏钱呢？ 其实,投资股票基金,收益并不一定来自 某个投资者亏损。 如果投资妥当，是可以做到所有投资者都 长期赚钱的。 因为投资者投资股票基金,并不是一个 「零和游戏」。 所谓的零和游戏，也就是说一方的收益， 必定意味着另一方的损失。 参加游戏的所有人，他们的收益和损失全 部相加起来，为零。 赌博就是一个典型的零和游戏。 而我们投资股票基金，是一个正和游戏， 所有参与者的收益全部加起来，是可以为 正的。 因为投资股票基金，本质上是投资背后的 上市公司，而上市公司是可以产生盈利现 金流的。 A股上市公司的长期盈利增长速度,在年 化10%上下。 整体上来说,所有的参与者,都可以享受 这个年化收益率。 我们只需要在低估的时候买入，避免买的 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学 ...