文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 不同地区股票市场不是同涨同跌的。了解多个股票市场，投资者可以把握更多的投资机会。 全球投资还可以显著降低波动风险。 那么，如何做好全球投资，分享全球市场长期上涨的红利呢？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了通过指数基金投资全球股市的方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 全球 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 如何利用指数基金 智能全球 时间? 长按添加@课程小助手,回复「全球」 免费领取《全球指数投资指南》课程 更有课程笔记、思维导图 帮你快速搞懂全球指数投资, 分享全球市场长期上涨的红利 status and the may be and the may be and the may be the comment of the comments of the comments of the comments of the comments of the world be the with and the world be th 基金有风险,投资需谨慎 urnel #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 利率波动，对股 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the stock market, highlighting that it oscillates between bull and bear markets due to economic cycles [7][11] - Three main cycles affecting the stock market are identified: fundamental cycle, liquidity cycle, and sentiment cycle [7][11] - The fundamental cycle refers to the growth rate of corporate earnings, which has been slow from 2022 to 2024, with a potential recovery in 2025 for certain sectors like technology and military [8][11] Group 2 - The liquidity cycle is influenced by the availability of capital, particularly affected by interest rate changes, with a significant rise in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2024 [9] - The sentiment cycle reflects investor emotions, where optimism peaks during market rises and pessimism during declines, impacting investment decisions [10][11] - The interplay of these cycles can lead to simultaneous peaks or troughs, resulting in pronounced bull or bear markets [11]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 分散投资，为何能提高投资收益? 有朋友说，明白分散配置可以降低风 险,但不太明白为什么分散配置,可能 会获得比集中配置更高的收益？ 之前给大家说过一个很形象的例子,就 是一个大妈,她有俩闺女,大闺女卖 伞，二闺女卖布。 ◆◆◆ 那很明显，如果遇到晴天的时候没有人 买伞,卖伞的闺女的生意就不好,但是 卖布的生意就会好一点。 反之下雨天的时候卖布的生意不好,卖 伞的生意好。 假设大妈只有一个闺女,闺女要么卖 伞,要么卖布,那生意总是没那么稳 定。 但是大妈现在有俩闺女，两个闺女做的生 意又不一样，彼此是可以对冲的。 这种情况下,大妈就可以选择,如果说 卖伞生意好的时候，大妈过去帮忙卖卖 伞;然后卖布生意好的时候,大妈帮忙 过去卖布。 这样分散配置以后，大妈整体的生意,赚 钱的稳定性提高，而且赚 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights that most investors are familiar with stock index funds but have limited knowledge about bond index funds and their investment strategies [2] - A free course is offered to educate investors on how to invest in bond index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the market cycles of different asset classes, categorizing them into four main types based on their bull and bear market cycles [5] - Bond assets typically have a bull-bear market cycle of 3-5 years, aligning with interest rate cycles [5] - Stock assets experience longer bull-bear cycles, with shorter cycles lasting 3-5 years and longer cycles extending to 7-10 years [5] - Gold also has a bull-bear market cycle comparable to stocks, with a notable 5-year bear market from 2011 to 2016 [5] - Real estate has the longest bull-bear market cycle, averaging 15-20 years, with the last bear market bottoming in 2008 and a bull market starting around 2018 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced the resumption of open market treasury bond trading operations, which had been suspended for nearly 10 months, providing confidence to the bond market amid recent fluctuations [1]. Part 01: What is a Bond Index Fund? - A bond index fund invests over 80% of its assets in bonds and aims to achieve market-average returns by passively tracking a specific bond index. It offers high transparency, low fees, risk diversification, and a clear strategy [1][2]. Part 02: Types of Bond Index Funds - China's bond market is divided into interbank and exchange markets, leading to two parallel systems for bond index investment: over-the-counter bond index funds and exchange-traded bond ETFs [4][6]. Part 03: Characteristics of Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs support T+0 trading, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, enhancing trading convenience. As of July 23, 2025, the total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 500 billion yuan, with significant growth observed since last year [7][14]. Part 04: Why Bond ETFs Have Exploded - Bond ETFs are advantageous due to T+0 trading, pledgeability, high efficiency, and low transaction costs, making them a favorable tool for investors in bond market allocations [14][18]. Part 05: Advantages of Bond ETFs Compared to Stock ETFs - Bond ETFs offer high liquidity, lower trading thresholds through sampling replication, lower transaction fees, and the ability to be used for high ratio pledge financing, which broadens financing channels [18]. Part 06: Suitable Investors for Bond Index Funds - Bond index funds are suitable for conservative investors seeking high transparency, investors with diverse allocation needs, professional investors with clear investment demands, and those with a stable risk preference [19][20][21][22]. Company Overview - Huaxia Fund has established a comprehensive bond research system and is one of the earliest companies to build a credit research team. It currently offers eight index bond fund products, covering various categories, making it an important tool for investors to share in bond market opportunities [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The development trend of public funds emphasizes equities, benchmarks, and long - term perspectives. Different types of public funds face different opportunities. For example, active equity funds will standardize benchmark indices and shift from focusing on relative rankings to excess returns; passive equity funds are experiencing the resonance of fee reduction and product innovation; fixed - income funds, especially those with "fixed - income +" products, are booming in the low - interest - rate era; and innovative products such as REITs are accelerating issuance while multi - asset allocation FOFs remain a blue ocean [2]. - The development prospect of fund companies is to return to investment research. Both large and comprehensive fund companies and small and niche ones are worth looking forward to. The industry shows a Matthew effect, and companies should choose different development strategies according to their scale. The investment research system is moving towards integration, and the back - office of fund companies may be empowered by AI [2]. - The sales environment of public funds is shifting from focusing on scale to enhancing investors' sense of gain. The sales model is changing from "emphasizing new issuance and neglecting continuous operation" to "emphasizing continuous operation and optimizing services", and the industry is undergoing ecological reshaping around investment advisory services. The establishment of institutional direct - sales platforms will test the differentiated research and service capabilities of代销 institutions [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Public Fund Development Trends: Emphasizing Equities, Benchmarks, and Long - Term Perspectives 1.1 Active Equity Funds: Standardization of Benchmark Indices and Transition from Relative Ranking to Excess Returns - **Benchmark Index Standardization**: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High - Quality Development of Public Funds" strengthens the binding effect of performance comparison benchmarks. Currently, the benchmark indices of active equity funds are mostly representative broad - based, industry - themed, and style indices. However, most funds do not strictly track the benchmarks, and the industry deviation is in the range of 0.35 - 0.75. This year, 177 funds have changed their performance comparison benchmarks, and the trend is to make them more in line with actual investments. Future benchmark design will be more representative, standardized, and closer to actual investment directions [8][12][21]. - **Serious Assessment**: The assessment should be long - term and focus on excess returns. Long - term assessment helps fund managers adhere to investment concepts, and funds with stable long - term performance have better cumulative returns and risk control. Emphasizing excess returns can tie fund managers' interests with investors and reduce tail risks. Funds that achieve positive excess returns in the long - term have better performance and risk control [24][25][33]. 1.2 Passive Equity Funds: Resonance of Fee Reduction and Product Innovation and Acceleration of the Improvement of the Characteristic Index System - **Replicating Index Funds**: The product spectrum is rich, with a significant leading - company effect. As of September 30, 2025, the total scale of stock ETFs reached 411.7167 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume in 2025 was 1.24 billion yuan. The management fees of ETFs are relatively low, and many large - scale broad - based ETFs have reduced fees. In the future, differentiated indices may become a blue ocean, and fund companies can carry out forward - looking layout and differentiated competition [43][46][54]. - **Index - Enhanced Products**: These products have both discipline and the ability to obtain excess returns. As of June 30, 2025, the total scale of over - the - counter index - enhanced funds was 20.1028 billion yuan. They can achieve differentiated layout by diversifying tracking indices and developing enhanced ETFs, and are expected to become an important link between passive and active investments [56][60][65]. 1.3 Active Fixed - Income Funds: The Booming of "Fixed - Income +" Products in the Low - Interest - Rate Era and the Popularity of Long - Term Investment Products - In the low - interest - rate environment since 2024, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds has increased. In the first half of 2025, the scale of "fixed - income +" funds increased by 232.3 billion yuan, with the scale of stable products surpassing that of balanced products. Stable "fixed - income +" funds have lower returns but better risk control, and the dividend - low - volatility strategy is suitable for them. With regulatory encouragement and the low - interest - rate environment, "fixed - income +" products are expected to continue to grow [66][69][79]. 1.4 Passive Fixed - Income Funds: Accelerated Trend and Continuous Emergence of Innovative Products Supported by Policies - The development of fixed - income index funds has gone through several stages, including the budding, trial, accelerated growth, slow growth, and explosive growth stages. As of Q2 2025, there were 243 bond index funds with a total scale of 1.42 trillion yuan. In the future, the tool - oriented trend of bond funds will be strengthened, ETFs will play a more important role, and innovative products will continue to emerge under policy support [80][84][94]. 1.5 Innovative Products: Accelerated Issuance of REITs and Multi - Asset Allocation FOFs Remain a Blue Ocean - **REITs Products**: With policy support, the issuance of REITs products has accelerated. As of June 30, 2025, there were 75 products with a total scale of 16.4087 billion yuan. REITs have unique asset allocation attributes, such as combining stock, bond, and alternative investment characteristics, having a long - term maturity, and rich underlying asset types. They are important tools for institutional investors' asset allocation and have broad development prospects [98][101][104]. - **FOF**: FOFs are suitable carriers for multi - asset allocation. Multi - asset allocation FOFs and ETF - FOFs are still a blue ocean. Currently, the scale of multi - asset allocation FOFs accounts for a relatively low proportion of all FOFs, but with the growth of asset - allocation demand and policy support, their scale and number are expected to increase significantly [106][109][113]. 2. Fund Company Development Trends: Return to Investment Research, Both Large and Comprehensive and Small and Niche Are Worth Looking Forward To 2.1 Company Strategic Positioning Selection: Comprehensive vs. Characteristic - **Industry Pattern of Public Funds**: The industry pattern of public funds will continue to concentrate on the top. Although the concentration of China's public fund industry has not increased significantly in the past five years, it is expected to rise in the future. The concentration of equity funds is higher than that of fixed - income funds, and the development trends of the two are different [117][118][123]. - **Comprehensive Fund Companies**: Large fund companies should be positioned as comprehensive fund companies. By referring to the development paths of E Fund and China Asset Management, comprehensive fund companies should maintain their advantages in active equity products and strengthen other product lines, such as passive equity, active Hong Kong stocks, passive fixed - income, and FOF products [125][126][127]. - **Characteristic Fund Companies**: Small and medium - sized fund companies should combine their endowments and deeply cultivate their advantages to achieve characteristic development [2]. 2.2 Investment Research System Construction: Platformization and Branding - The investment research system is moving towards integration, and the key is to achieve "harmony with differences". The investment team is shifting from creating star fund managers to building the brand of the company's investment research [25]. 2.3 Back - Office of Fund Companies: AI Empowers to Improve Efficiency - The back - office of fund companies should pay attention to long - term assessment to ensure the construction of talent echelons, actively introduce employee stock ownership to play a long - term incentive mechanism, and use AI to empower the entire business chain system of funds [29]. 3. Outlook on the Sales Environment of Public Funds: From Scale to Sense of Gain 3.1 Shift from Emphasizing New Issuance to Emphasizing Continuous Operation and Improve the Service Ability for Individual Customers - Policy guidance promotes the transformation of public fund sales from "emphasizing new issuance" to "emphasizing continuous operation and service", and strengthens the customer holding experience [31]. 3.2 Investment Advisory Services Change the Sales Industry Ecosystem, and the Rise of Buyer - Side Investment Advisory and Multi - Asset Allocation - The industry is transforming to the buyer - side investment advisory model and promoting multi - asset allocation, which will reshape the sales industry ecosystem [34]. 3.3 The Establishment of Institutional Direct - Sales Platforms Is Expected, Testing the Differentiated Research and Service Capabilities of代销 Institutions - The development of direct - sales platforms will pose challenges to代销 channels.代销 institutions should strengthen their buyer - side capabilities, deepen cooperation with funds, and transform towards multi - asset allocation, long - term value, and personalized services when serving institutional investors [39]. 3.4 Outlook on the Pattern of the Public Fund Sales Environment - The sales environment of public funds may present a pattern of "the strong getting stronger", a dual - drive of "direct sales +代销", a combination of diversification and digitalization, and a new situation of high - quality development [3].

Group 1 - The article highlights the lack of awareness among investors regarding bond index funds compared to stock index funds, suggesting a need for education on investment methods for bond index funds [2] - A free course is offered to help investors understand the investment strategies related to bond index funds, along with supplementary materials like course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - The concept of "moat" is introduced, emphasizing the importance of a company's competitive advantage and its sustainability for long-term profitability [6] - The article references Warren Buffett's 1999 article on the moat theory, stating that products or services protected by a strong moat can yield substantial returns for investors [6] - It discusses the challenges of low-barrier opportunities in the market, which lead to increased competition and reduced profitability, highlighting the necessity of having a moat to avoid relentless competition [6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding different types of index funds, particularly bond index funds, which are less familiar to most investors compared to stock index funds [2] - It introduces four main categories of indices: broad-based indices, strategy indices, industry indices, and thematic indices [6] Group 2 - For broad-based index investment, it is crucial to consider the balance between large-cap and small-cap stocks, noting that in 2024, large-cap stocks like CSI 300 are expected to perform well while small-cap stocks may lag [8] - A classic combination for investment is the pairing of CSI 300 with CSI 500, and potentially adding CSI 1000 for more small-cap exposure [9] - In strategy index investment, it is important to balance growth and value styles, as A-shares exhibit a rotation between these styles over time [10][11] - The article highlights that from 2019 to 2020, growth style was strong, while from 2021 to 2024, value style is expected to dominate [12] Group 3 - Industry and thematic index investments are characterized by high volatility, with broad-based indices typically experiencing 20%-30% fluctuations annually, while industry indices can see 30%-50% volatility [13] - It is recommended to limit exposure to any single industry to 15%-20% to manage risk effectively [13] - The article advises investors to select long-term themes when investing in thematic indices, citing examples of past popular themes that may no longer be relevant [13]

Group 1 - The article discusses the lesser-known topic of bond index funds and offers a free course on investment methods for these funds [2] - It highlights a common pitfall for investors during bull markets, where individuals may consider quitting their jobs to invest full-time based on short-term gains [5] - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing that short-term profits in a bull market may not reflect true investment skill, and transitioning to full-time investing should be approached with caution [5] Group 2 - Human capital is described as a valuable asset, with its worth estimated at approximately 20 times the annual disposable income [7] - The article provides a specific example using Beijing's compensation standards, where the death compensation for urban residents is calculated based on this 20 times multiplier of the previous year's disposable income [7] - It warns that quitting a job to invest could lead to significant financial loss, as individuals may forfeit their annual income, which could amount to over a million in human capital value [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article addresses the confusion among investors regarding bond funds, which are traditionally seen as stable investments, highlighting the importance of understanding different types of bond funds and the risks associated with them [1] Group 1: Types of Bond Funds - Bond funds can be categorized into three main types based on asset allocation and investment strategy: pure bond funds, mixed bond funds, and bond index funds [2] - Pure bond funds focus entirely on bonds, making them the least risky category, suitable for conservative investors seeking stable returns [3] - Mixed bond funds combine bonds with stocks or convertible bonds to enhance yield while managing risk, with performance closely tied to stock market movements [6] - Bond index funds aim to replicate the performance of specific bond indices, offering low fees and transparency, making them suitable for long-term investors [8] Group 2: Reasons for Decline in Bond Funds - The average decline of 0.3% in bond funds during Q2 2023 can be attributed to four main risks: rising interest rates, credit risk, liquidity crises, and strategic errors [10][11] - Rising interest rates negatively impact bond prices, leading to potential declines in fund net values [11] - Credit risk arises when bond issuers default, directly affecting the net value of bond funds [11] - Liquidity issues can occur during large redemptions, forcing fund managers to sell bonds at lower prices, resulting in net value drops [11] - Strategic errors, such as investing in convertible bonds or using leverage, can amplify risks and lead to greater volatility in fund values [13][15] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to choose bond fund types based on their risk tolerance, focusing on key indicators such as duration, credit rating, and fund size [13][15] - Conservative investors should consider short-term pure bond funds or bond index funds, while more aggressive investors might explore mixed bond funds or convertible bond funds [16] - Timing investments is crucial; for instance, investing in medium to long-term pure bond funds is favorable when long-term interest rates are high [16]