来源：阿尔法工场DeepFund 导语：当公募行业步入2026年的深度洗牌期，有人在高歌猛进，有人在悄然离场。 开年公募上演冰火两重天，一边是公募总规模持续创新高，一边是小基金公司开始出清。 2026年一开始，就有一家基金公司在成立十几年后即将迎来自己发展的终局。 1月26日华宸未来基金公告称将召开基金份额持有人大会，将旗下仅剩的一只债券基金变更管理人为富 国基金。随着2月25日基金份额持有人大会结束，会议流程进入投票统计阶段，管理人变更是小切大， 投票结果应该不会出什么意外。 等富国基金接手后，基金将更名为"富国丰泰债券"，正式由富国基金接管。相比于以往的公募基金直接 清盘，通过"管理人变更"实现产品线平移，也不失一个良策。这或许会成为未来更多陷入困境的小型公 募退出的"标准模板"。 华宸未来的警示 华宸未来基金的离场并非突发事件，而是一场长达两年的"慢性衰落"。这家公司虽然已经成立十几年 了，但是知名度一直比较弱，规模始终未能有效突破。 中小基金公司的行业困局 华宸未来并非特例，它或许是未来中小公募基金在规模与盈利双重挤压下被迫出清的先头兵。 公募是一个具有显著规模经济特征的行业，在当前费率下移与渠道准入 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the lesser-known bond index funds compared to stock index funds and offers a free course on how to invest in bond index funds [2] Group 2 - As of early February 2026, the Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in dividend indices, nearing historical highs, while technology indices have declined [6] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets frequently experience style rotation between growth and value, with Hong Kong primarily focusing on dividend indices [6][10] - From September 2024 to September 2025, the growth style in Hong Kong stocks is expected to be strong, with technology stock earnings projected to double year-on-year in the first two quarters of 2025 [7] - During the same period, the Hong Kong value style, such as the Hang Seng Dividend Low Volatility Index, increased by approximately 30%, underperforming the overall market [8] - Since September 2025, there has been a style switch in Hong Kong stocks, with growth style experiencing a correction of about 19% while value style continued to rise by approximately 10% [9] - The rotation between growth and value styles is a characteristic of both A-share and Hong Kong markets, driven by limited market funds moving in and out of different styles [10]

Group 1 - The article highlights the general lack of awareness among investors regarding bond index funds compared to stock index funds, and introduces a free course on how to invest in bond index funds [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the differences between financing and investing in the cryptocurrency market, emphasizing that bull and bear markets present distinct opportunities and behavioral logics for market participants [6] - In a bear market, low market valuations and high dividend payouts create favorable conditions for investors to buy quality stocks, while founders and shareholders may find it less advantageous to sell shares [7] - For example, in 2024, the A-share market reached a low of 5.9 stars, with new IPO financing totaling 67.3 billion and total financing around 288 billion, while total dividends reached 2.4 trillion, indicating a dividend-focused market [7]

Group 1 - The article discusses the lesser-known topic of bond index funds and offers a free course on investment methods for these funds [2] - It highlights the importance of understanding the current profit growth situation of listed companies behind different stock categories in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [6] - The article emphasizes that long-term returns are primarily driven by the profit growth of listed companies rather than valuation fluctuations [6] Group 2 - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the technology and pharmaceutical sectors are experiencing profit growth in a prosperous cycle, indicating strong performance in recent years [6] - A-shares with dividends and Hong Kong consumer stocks are in a recovery cycle for profit growth, suggesting potential for future improvement [6]

Group 1 - The article discusses the rising valuations of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, noting that as of January 2026, the overall valuation is not cheap compared to global markets [6] - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were significantly undervalued compared to the global market in May 2024, with a valuation gap of nearly 50% [6] - Since May 2024, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have increased by 50%-60%, outperforming the global stock market, which saw a rise of about 1 time [6][7] Group 2 - The valuation of the CSI All Share Index has approached that of the global market average, indicating that the period of undervaluation for RMB assets has passed [7] - Currently, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are not expected to exceed global market averages significantly, unlike in 2015 and early 2007 [7] - The article suggests that as the market rises, investors should consider gradual profit-taking strategies for overvalued stocks [8]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 成长价值风俗投资,核心是话! 企业从上市开始，会经历： ·深度成长： IPO成功，企业获得大笔资 金，收入开始高速增长。 ·成长：企业拥有一定的市场占有率和营 收规模，收入增长速度快。 ·成长价值:企业占有率逐渐接近天花 板,收入增速放缓,但可以通过裁员降 薪、提高效率的方式，盈利高速增长。 · 深度价值:收入和盈利都接近天花板, 企业会呈现低估值、高分红的特征。 不同的投资大师,所处的阶段不同，投 资策略和理念也会有区别。 这需要几个条件。 (1) 有可观盈利 这就注定不是一些创业公司。 创业公司还在比较早期，别说盈利了, 有的还要烧钱发展业务。 (2) 盈利要稳定 公司要有能维持长期盈利的能力。这种 能力，就是护城河。 巴菲特在1999年的《财富》杂志上，发 表了一篇文章，介绍 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 大部分投资者对股票指数基金都耳熟能详，但是对债券指数基金知之甚少。债券指数基金该如何投资？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了债券指数基金的投资方法。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 债券 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 ◆◆◆ 何解决呢? 定投有一个很好的作用，可以在下跌的过 程中降低成本。 如果我们手里已经积累了大量的存量资 产，那么，新投入的资金，相比存量资产 占比很小。 这个时候，主要的涨跌就是由存量资产带 来的，新投入的资金，影响就不大了。 这就是钝化效应。 那么，钝化效应会发生在什么时候呢? 通常来说,如果你单次定投的资金量,是 你现在持有的基金总市值的5%以下,那 就接近出现钝化效应了。 换句话说,如果每个月定投同样的钱,那 么,通常来说,定投超过20个月之后,钝 化效应就开始出现了。 面对「钝化效应」，我们可以通过两个方 法解决。 (1) 「定期不定额」定投 我们可以提高定投的金额,也就是市场越 下跌，买入越多。 这就是「定期不定额」定投方法的原理。 风险提示 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with the index approaching a rating of 3.90 stars, indicating a potential for further growth in the near future [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - All market segments, including large, medium, and small-cap stocks, have seen increases, with small-cap stocks showing the most significant gains [2]. - The CSI 1000 and 2000 indices are now considered overvalued, while the CSI 500 and low-volatility indices are quickly approaching overvaluation [2]. - Since 2018, the CSI 500 low-volatility index has nearly doubled, driven by valuation increases, profit growth, and low-volatility rebalancing [2]. Group 2: Market Phases and Trends - The current bull market is characterized by structural trends, where not all sectors rise or fall together, indicating a rotation in market styles [2]. - The A-share market has seen a significant increase of over 60% since September 2024, with three notable upward waves contributing to a total rise of approximately 74% [2][3]. - Market liquidity is a key driver of the current upward trend, influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the overall global liquidity environment [3][5]. Group 3: Liquidity Factors - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts through 2026 are expected to maintain a favorable liquidity environment [5]. - A significant amount of deposits, approximately 30 trillion yuan, is set to mature in 2026, with a portion likely to flow into financial assets, including stocks [8][10]. - The current low interest rates on deposits are expected to redirect some funds into the stock market, although not all will enter equities [10][11]. Group 4: Corporate Earnings Growth - Corporate earnings are recovering, with a notable increase in profits for the technology sector, which is leading the market [17][18]. - Some sectors, such as consumer goods, are still experiencing declines in earnings, indicating a mixed performance across different industries [20]. - Continuous monitoring of corporate earnings growth will be essential in 2026 to gauge market expectations [21][22]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - As the market approaches a rating of 3.90 stars, the optimal phase for stock fund investments may have passed, suggesting a shift towards asset allocation and profit-taking strategies [23][24]. - The focus for 2026 should be on managing asset allocation rather than aggressive stock fund purchases [24]. Group 6: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market has also returned to a rating of 3.90 stars, with updated valuations provided for various indices [25]. - The valuation table for Hong Kong indices includes metrics such as P/E ratios and dividend yields, offering insights for potential investors [26].

Group 1 - The article introduces the concept of bond index funds, highlighting that most investors are familiar with stock index funds but less so with bond index funds [2] - A free course is offered to educate investors on how to invest in bond index funds, including course notes and mind maps for efficient learning [2] Group 2 - Different asset classes present varying levels of investment difficulty, with money market funds being the easiest due to their minimal volatility [6] - Bond funds are slightly more complex, experiencing some volatility, with potential fluctuations of 3%-5% in extreme situations, but generally manageable [8] - Stock funds carry higher risks, with historical downturns of 30%-50% in bear markets, indicating significant volatility compared to bond funds [9][11] - Equity investments are the most challenging, often involving investments in unlisted companies with high failure rates, where only a few successful projects can recover losses from many failures [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent appreciation of the Chinese Yuan against the US Dollar, primarily driven by the decline in US interest rates, and its implications for various financial markets including US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese assets [3][4][19]. Group 1: Currency Trends - Over the past year, the Chinese Yuan has appreciated significantly against the US Dollar, mainly due to the decrease in US interest rates [3]. - The decline in US interest rates has narrowed the interest rate differential between the US Dollar and the Yuan, facilitating the Yuan's appreciation [4]. - The US Dollar Index, which measures the Dollar's value against a basket of major currencies, reflects the Dollar's performance in the international currency market [6]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates on Currency - The cycle of interest rates is closely related to currency exchange rates; during periods of US interest rate hikes, the Dollar tends to appreciate, while during rate cuts, it depreciates [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's significant interest rate hikes from 2021 to 2022 resulted in a 25%-30% appreciation of the Dollar against other currencies [8]. - Following the Fed's first rate cut in September 2024, the Dollar has depreciated against other currencies, including the Yuan [9]. Group 3: Effects on Financial Markets - Rising interest rates typically lead to a bear market in bonds, as higher rates decrease bond market values [11]. - The bond market has shown a slow bullish trend since the Fed's rate cut in September 2024, with bond index funds beginning to recover [12]. - The overall US stock market has also seen an upward trend since the onset of the rate cut cycle in September 2024 [16]. Group 4: Influence on Chinese Assets - Changes in US interest rates affect the exchange rate, which in turn impacts A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - The previous US interest rate hike cycle led to significant depreciation of other currencies, causing capital outflows and increased volatility in weaker markets like Hong Kong [18]. - Since the rate cut cycle began in September 2024, the Yuan's appreciation has attracted capital inflows into Chinese assets, boosting both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [19][20]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Interest rates are short-term factors that can create opportunities for undervalued buying and overvalued selling in the market [22]. - A rising Dollar often leads to asset price declines, presenting buying opportunities during bear markets, while a falling Dollar can lead to price increases, creating selling opportunities during bull markets [22]. - Long-term investment strategies should focus on the intrinsic value and valuation of stocks, as interest and exchange rate fluctuations primarily provide opportunities for buying low and selling high [27].