Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold's price movements within specified ranges, suggesting a focus on fluctuations rather than a strong bullish or bearish outlook, particularly in light of the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and lack of significant market data [2][3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold is currently trading around 4020, which is identified as a key resistance point. A break above 4050 could lead to a strong upward trend, with targets set at 4150 and 4300 [3][4]. - The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, as failure to break 4050 may result in a downward correction. The support levels are noted at 4000, 3950, and 3900 [4][5]. - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend, with a clear bottoming pattern and potential for further gains if the price breaks through the upper resistance [3][4]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is also viewed positively, with a focus on breaking the resistance at 49.5. If this level is surpassed, targets of 51 and 52.5 are anticipated [5][6]. - The article highlights previous successful trades in silver, reinforcing the expectation of upward movement while maintaining a watchful eye on support at 48.5 [5][6]. Domestic Gold and Silver - Domestic gold (Shanghai Gold) is experiencing a strong upward trend, with key levels to watch at 935 for Shanghai Gold and 930 for Rongtong Gold. The support levels are set at 925 and 920, respectively [5][6]. - The article suggests that traders should continue to adopt a bullish stance on domestic gold, with expectations of gradual increases in price [5]. Oil Market Analysis - The oil market is expected to remain in a range-bound state, with a current price around 60. A potential upward movement to 62.5 is anticipated if bullish momentum is strong [6]. - The article advises maintaining existing long positions in oil while monitoring for signs of upward movement [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current performance of gold, indicating a consolidation phase with a target of 4020 and a potential next target of 4050, while emphasizing the importance of not making premature predictions in the current market environment [1][3]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold has shown a noticeable performance this week, with four days of low volatility and oscillation, aligning with the analyst's expectations for a consolidating market [3]. - The price of gold reached the key resistance point of 4020 but experienced a corrective decline afterward, indicating a continued oscillation trend [5]. - The analyst maintains a view of a broad trading range for gold between 4050 and 3900, with a smaller range of 4020 to 3935, suggesting that the market is likely to remain within these levels unless significant breaks occur [5][6]. Technical Indicators - The daily chart shows signs of a bottoming pattern, but a clear bullish trend has not yet formed, with the analyst suggesting that a breakout above 4050 could signal a stronger upward movement [6]. - The H4 chart indicates a standard oscillation pattern, with expectations for a potential upward breakout if the price can widen the Bollinger Bands [6]. Silver Market Analysis - The silver market is also experiencing a similar oscillation trend, with a focus on whether the price can break above 49.5, which would indicate a stronger bullish sentiment [6]. - The domestic silver market (沪银) has shown a successful upward movement, with the analyst advising against chasing higher prices and suggesting a focus on the established trading range of 11100 to 11600 [7]. Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has seen a recent decline to 58.8, but the overall trend remains oscillatory, with expectations for a potential rebound towards 61 [7]. - The domestic fuel market (燃油) is advised to hold positions established around 2700, with a cautious outlook for the upcoming week [7].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a breakout in gold prices around Wednesday or Thursday, with a slow upward trend anticipated on Monday and Tuesday [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - On Monday, gold fluctuated significantly within the range of 3960 to 4030, with a clear trend observed [2]. - The recommendation is to maintain a low long strategy, with specific buy targets set at 3985 and 3998, aiming for 4020, while cautioning against excessive expectations of upward momentum until a break above 4050 occurs [2]. - The current market is characterized as a weak oscillation state, requiring a daily close above the Bollinger middle track to establish a strong upward trend [2]. Group 2: Domestic Gold Performance - Domestic gold prices showed minor fluctuations, with the Shanghai gold contract closing at 920 and the Rongtong gold at 912, indicating a recovery from previous declines [3]. - The focus for the week is on breaking key resistance levels at 955 for Shanghai gold and 950 for Rongtong gold to confirm continued upward movement [3]. Group 3: Silver Market Insights - International silver prices have not stabilized above the 49.5 resistance point, indicating a continued oscillation trend [3]. - The strategy for silver remains to adopt a low long approach, with support levels identified at 47.5 and 45.5, waiting for a rebound at these key support points [3][4]. Group 4: Domestic Silver and Oil Market - The Shanghai silver contract is currently in a consolidation phase, with a focus on breaking the 11600 resistance level for potential upward movement [4]. - Oil prices are stable around 61, with expectations for upward continuation if the previous high of 63 is breached, targeting 66 [4].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of making the right decisions over merely executing tasks correctly, highlighting that understanding the correct path to wealth is crucial [1] - It discusses the significance of market trends and the potential impact of price levels on future performance, particularly in the context of gold prices [1][2] Market Analysis - The gold market has recently experienced a significant upward trend, with a focus on the critical price levels of $4180 and $4000, which serve as key support and resistance points [1][5] - If the price of gold falls below $4000, it may decline further to the range of $3700-$3800, representing a typical adjustment of 50% from the recent upward movement [2] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests a range-bound approach between $4180 and $4000, advocating for high selling and low buying within this interval until a breakout occurs [5] - The article outlines that a breach of $4000 would indicate a continuation of bearish sentiment, while a breakout above $4180 would signal the end of the short-term correction [5]

郑氏点银：黄金冲高回落，日线走循环，又要试探短期5日再企稳 以上是笔者技术剖析的几个观点，作为参考，也是十二年以来，每日12小时以上盯盘、复盘所积累的技术经验总结，每天都会公开技术点，配合文字和视频 解读，想学习的朋友，结合实际走势可以去对比参考；认可思路的可以参考操作，带好防守，风控第一；不认可的就当飘过就行；感谢大家的支持和关注； 第二，白银方面：早间先依托小时线中轨50支撑看涨，价格略差0.1，一波拉高至51.7，欧盘回踩50.5继续看涨，价格刚好到位，美盘又是一波续涨，最高冲 击52.4一线，也是非常强势； 今日行情分析解读： 第二，黄金小时线级别：午后压制4179一线跳水一波至4090，也是昨夜凌晨低点，双底企稳后，欧盘反弹一波至4145，测试了跌幅618分割阻力，也是图中 红色通道反压点；而原本欧盘认为，反弹又重新站上了中轨，且整个欧盘处于反弹，并未延续午后走弱，那么整体还是有些偏强，存在突破4045阻力的概 率，然后压制日内高点下再冲高回落，类似10月9日走法；结果实际走势并未如此，而是选择再次打压，失守中轨，跌至4100；那么当前布林带走的就是缩 口整理了，下方支撑4090一线比较关键，上方中 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in both China and the U.S. is showing signs of concern due to trade issues, with manufacturing PMI indicating a decline in economic activity [1] - Recent domestic meetings suggest strong policy support expectations, alongside a potential easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics Copper Market - Supply constraints in copper mining persist, with tight supply conditions expected to continue [2] - Despite production increases, there are pressures for supply contraction due to mining challenges [2] - Demand has improved post-Qingming Festival, but overall investment in power engineering is lagging compared to last year [2][3] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories remain low, prompting strategies to capitalize on market conditions [3][12] Aluminum Market - Aluminum supply constraints are well-known, with no significant increases expected [5] - Downstream demand for aluminum is declining as the industry enters a seasonal downturn [6] - The production of aluminum is under pressure due to reduced demand, leading to profit compression [6] - The supply of bauxite remains ample, but the overall aluminum market is facing downward price pressure [7][8] - The aluminum market is expected to experience a seasonal decline in production, impacting profit margins [18] Strategic Insights - A strategy of "backwardation" in the aluminum market is suggested, as supply pressures and reduced demand are anticipated [18][19] - The copper market is experiencing a "month spread" strategy, indicating potential for short-term gains despite overall market concerns [4][22] - The overall sentiment in the aluminum market is bearish, with recommendations to adopt a cautious approach to trading strategies [24] Key Data Points - The copper price has reached levels where downstream orders are slowing, indicating a potential market correction [12] - The domestic copper mining output is constrained, with global production growth remaining limited [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing a significant decline in demand, particularly in sectors related to construction and new energy vehicles [13][17] Conclusion - The current market conditions for both copper and aluminum indicate a complex interplay of supply constraints and fluctuating demand, necessitating careful monitoring and strategic positioning by investors [24]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The strong performance of the US dollar has led to a decline in gold prices, dropping to 3285, which exceeded expectations for this downturn [1] - Gold is currently in a low-level oscillation, with each drop followed by a rebound that lacks continuation, suggesting a need for a strategy focused on accumulating positions at key levels [1][2] - The short-term trading range for gold is defined by a triangle pattern, with key support at 3285 and resistance at 3345; breaking these levels will determine the direction of future movements [2] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver is expected to exhibit limited movement, with an upward resistance at 37.3 and a downward support at 35.5, indicating a likely oscillation phase [1] - The current price of silver is around 36.5, and while it remains in a bullish trend, caution is advised against chasing prices due to potential risks of a pullback [3] - The trading strategy for silver suggests either waiting for a pullback to enter long positions or considering short positions if the upper resistance is not broken [3] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold contracts have shown good profits previously, but a recent pullback has occurred, with the Shanghai gold contract (2512) dropping to around 767; a continuation of long positions is recommended [3] - The expected target for the Shanghai gold contract is between 785 and 795, while the Rongtong gold contract has a target of 780 to 790 [3] - The domestic silver market is also experiencing a pullback, with a current price of 36.5, and the strategy suggests maintaining a cautious approach while monitoring key support levels [4] Group 4: Oil Market Performance - International crude oil has risen to 69, achieving the first target point after previously advising to maintain long positions at 64 [4] - The upward target for crude oil is set at 72, and the strategy is to hold existing long positions while looking for further opportunities to enter the market [4] - Domestic fuel oil has also shown signs of a bullish trend, currently above 2900, with potential targets of 3000 and 3200 [4]

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to trigger a new market trend for gold, which has been in a consolidation phase [1] - The gold market is currently experiencing a tight trading range, with significant fluctuations expected as the market prepares for a breakout [1][4] - The current support level for gold is at $3260, while resistance is seen at $3380, indicating a potential for significant price movement [4] Group 2 - Recent trading activity shows gold prices fluctuating between $3300 and $3330, with a critical support range identified between $3285 and $3275 [2] - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend with high points decreasing and low points remaining stable, suggesting a potential continuation of the current adjustment phase [4] - Traders are advised to avoid entering positions in the middle of the current trading range to minimize losses from stop-loss triggers [2]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached the significant threshold of 3500, continuing a strong upward trend [1] Group 1 - The current market analysis indicates that gold is experiencing a robust rally, prompting discussions on how to capitalize on this single-direction market movement [1]