Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "pre-made dish war" in the restaurant industry has intensified, with the company 九毛九 (09922.HK) facing significant challenges, including declining stock prices and poor financial performance, leading to a strategic shift towards pre-made dishes and international expansion [1][10]. Company Performance - 九毛九's stock price has dropped significantly from a peak of 37.8 HKD per share in early 2021 to 2.18 HKD per share by September 2025, resulting in a market capitalization decline from nearly 550 billion HKD to 30 billion HKD, a loss of over 520 billion HKD (approximately 480 billion RMB) or 94% [2][3]. - The company's revenue and net profit both decreased in the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.753 billion RMB, down 10.1% year-on-year, and net profit at 61 million RMB, down 16.05% [3][5]. Brand Performance - The core brand 太二酸菜鱼 experienced a revenue decline of 13.3% in the first half of 2025, generating 1.949 billion RMB, with the number of stores reducing from 612 to 547, marking the first significant closure of stores since its listing in 2019 [5][6]. - The other two main brands, 怂火锅 and 九毛九 (西北菜), also reported poor performance, with revenues of 417 million RMB (down 3.5%) and 226 million RMB (down 22.6%) respectively [5]. Market Challenges - The restaurant industry is facing a brutal price war, with many companies reporting disappointing financial results. The overall market is experiencing a significant increase in closures, with 4.09 million restaurants closed in 2024, a closure rate of 61.2% [11][12]. - Despite the challenges, some companies in the beverage sector have shown strong performance, indicating a potential shift in consumer preferences and market dynamics [11]. Strategic Shifts - In response to declining performance, 九毛九 is implementing a comprehensive overhaul of the 太二酸菜鱼 brand, introducing a new "fresh live model" and expanding its international presence, with new stores opened in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and Canada [9][10]. - The company has also begun selling pre-made 太二酸菜鱼 products through channels like Sam's Club, with revenue from product sales increasing by 140% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing "pre-made dish war" in the restaurant industry has intensified, with companies like Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) facing significant challenges, including declining stock prices and poor financial performance [2][5][19]. Company Performance - Jiumaojiu's stock price has dropped significantly from a peak of 37.8 HKD per share in early 2021 to 2.18 HKD per share by September 2025, resulting in a market capitalization decline from nearly 55 billion HKD to 3 billion HKD, a loss of over 94% [5][8]. - The company reported a revenue decline of 10.1% year-on-year to 2.753 billion CNY and a net profit decrease of 16.05% to 61 million CNY in the first half of 2025 [7]. - The three main brands under Jiumaojiu, including Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu (Northwest Cuisine), have all experienced revenue declines, with Taier's revenue dropping 13.3% to 1.949 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [9][10]. Market Trends - The restaurant industry is facing a brutal price war, with many companies reporting poor financial results. For instance, Xiaobai Xiaobai's revenue fell by 18.9% to 1.942 billion CNY in the first half of 2025 [19]. - The overall restaurant market is undergoing a significant shakeout, with a closure rate of 61.2% in 2024, indicating a challenging environment for many players [21]. Brand Challenges - Taier, once a popular brand, is now facing criticism regarding its product quality and service speed, leading to a decline in customer interest [12][14]. - The brand's store count has decreased from 612 to 547 within six months, marking the first significant closure since its inception [9][16]. Strategic Adjustments - In response to its challenges, Taier has initiated a comprehensive overhaul, introducing a new store model focused on fresh ingredients and improved customer experience [17]. - The company has also expanded its pre-made dish offerings, with sales from this segment increasing by 140% year-on-year to 132 million CNY in the first half of 2025 [17].

Core Viewpoint - Fonterra's Greater China division is undergoing a restructuring by merging its consumer brand team with its food service team to optimize operations and enhance synergies [1] Group 1: Business Operations - The merger aims to streamline operations and create greater collaboration between the consumer and food service segments [1] - Fonterra's food service business significantly outperforms its consumer brand business in terms of revenue and profit [1] - In FY2024, Fonterra's raw materials business generated NZD 3.598 billion (approximately RMB 15.338 billion) in revenue, with a net profit of NZD 128 million (approximately RMB 546 million) [1] - The food service business reported revenue of NZD 2.377 billion (approximately RMB 10.133 billion) and a net profit of NZD 299 million (approximately RMB 1.275 billion) [1] - The consumer products segment had revenue of NZD 394 million (approximately RMB 1.68 billion) but incurred a net loss of NZD 15 million (approximately RMB 6.3945 million) [1] Group 2: Market Competition - Fonterra faces intense competition, particularly from domestic brands like Miaokelando, which reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in its food service segment for 2024 [2] - The rise of domestic cheese brands has led to reduced costs for local cheese production, increasing competition in the food service market [2] - A price war in the food service sector is exerting downward pressure on prices, affecting Fonterra's profitability [2][3] Group 3: Profitability Concerns - Fonterra's food service business has seen a decline in gross profit margins in recent quarters, indicating potential challenges ahead [3] - The ongoing market changes suggest that Fonterra's adjustments may be just the beginning of a broader strategic shift [4]

Group 1 - Fonterra's Greater China region is undergoing a restructuring, merging its consumer brand team with its food service team to optimize operations and enhance synergies [1] - In the Chinese market, Fonterra's food service business significantly outperforms its consumer brand business, with food service revenue of NZD 2.377 billion (approximately RMB 10.133 billion) in FY2024, compared to consumer products revenue of NZD 394 million (approximately RMB 1.68 billion) [1] - The food service business is considered Fonterra's profit driver, generating a tax profit of NZD 299 million (approximately RMB 1.275 billion) in FY2024, while the consumer products segment reported a tax loss of NZD 15 million (approximately RMB 63.945 million) [1] Group 2 - Fonterra is facing intense competitive pressure, particularly from domestic brands like Miaokelando, which reported a 14% year-on-year revenue growth in its food service series, reaching RMB 1.31 billion in 2024 [2][3] - The ongoing price war in the food service sector is exerting downward pressure on prices, affecting Fonterra's profit margins in its food service business, which has already seen a decline in gross margin [4] - The adjustments being made by Fonterra may be just the beginning in response to market changes and competitive dynamics [5]